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(edited)

8 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

You keep forgetting that global demand for diesel is robust enough to absorb Chinese diesel exports.

China's diesel exports quadrupled in May, reflecting robust global demand for distillate fuels 

That is no big deal because it just means the price dropped enough to clear the market. Which is absolutely the most basic concept in economics. Let's look again at the price:

Oh gee, May price was the lowest in years. 

image.png.f7115ee5e0347fc50edc2f584145da1b.png

 

Edited by Jay McKinsey

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(edited)

4 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

That is no big deal because it just means the price dropped enough to clear the market. Let's look again at the price:

Oh gee, May price was the lowest in years. 

image.png.f7115ee5e0347fc50edc2f584145da1b.png

 

And markets were tighter than the ten year average..so much for your analysis.

Price looks decent, well above recent periods.

You have the wrong chart, that is heating oil, dummy.

We are talking about diesel.

Edited by Ecocharger

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(edited)

9 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

And markets were tighter than the ten year average..so much for your analysis.

No, when adjusting for inflation it was right at or below average for 10 years:

image.png.41319e16dfe5b006432ffff541f8b176.png

image.thumb.png.7876a706ee09cccecbd2031363dffacb.png

Edited by Jay McKinsey

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On 6/24/2023 at 11:43 AM, TailingsPond said:

A stopped EV uses very little energy.   I assure you that you can park an EV for more than 4 hours at it will still be charged....

 

I'm not sure if it is correct...

A phone that is not in used will run out of battery in static mode, particularly when the screen is not off despite not in used 

Therefore, unless the car is off, battery likely to be in used to sustain the car in static mode e.g. apps, air-con, deck lights, readiness to pick up speed etc .

Not sure if they have runned a test on how long the battery can last in static mode sustaining all components of the car? 

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8 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

I guess you better tell the Texans:

March 15 - Texas will continue to lead U.S. solar growth in the coming years...

The U.S. Energy Information Administration predicts Texas will install 7.7 GW of solar this year, a quarter of all U.S. installations. Some 36 GW in new capacity is expected in Texas in the next five years, according to the U.S. Solar Energy Industry Association (SEIA).

I do believe Texas does not Qualify as a Continent. It was then I experienced a ephiany...Such Is Life.

 

7qicor.jpg

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(edited)

3 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

I do believe Texas does not Qualify as a Continent. It was then I experienced a ephiany...Such Is Life.

 

7qicor.jpg

Well those Red Blooded Americans sure do love their Green Renewable Energy!  

They have the world's largest electric vehicle factory, are adding more solar than any other state in the union and have the most wind energy output of any state in the union.

 

Edited by Jay McKinsey

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6 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Well those Red Blooded Americans sure do love their Green Renewable Energy!  

They have the world's largest electric vehicle factory, are adding more solar than any other state in the union and have the most wind energy output of any state in the union.

 

You have a pretty good bag of wind yourself, Jay.

But wind and solar are still a small percentage of total energy. Not reliable, either.

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(edited)

48 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

No, when adjusting for inflation it was right at or below average for 10 years:

image.png.41319e16dfe5b006432ffff541f8b176.png

image.thumb.png.7876a706ee09cccecbd2031363dffacb.png

Those are heating oil charts, not diesel.

You are off your old rocker again.

Here is the diesel story,

"Europe is one obvious destination for Chinese diesel. After banning Russian crude and fuels, the continent has not exactly been able to stop using them. It has just had to find new suppliers, and China has emerged as a big one among them, along with India."

Edited by Ecocharger

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(edited)

12 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Well those Red Blooded Americans sure do love their Green Renewable Energy!  

They have the world's largest electric vehicle factory, are adding more solar than any other state in the union and have the most wind energy output of any state in the union.

 

https://www.texastribune.org/2023/05/25/texas-energy-renewables-natural-gas-grid-politics/

Texas power struggle: How the nation’s top wind power state turned against renewable energy.

Edited by Eyes Wide Open

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(edited)

50 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

No, when adjusting for inflation it was right at or below average for 10 years:

image.png.41319e16dfe5b006432ffff541f8b176.png

image.thumb.png.7876a706ee09cccecbd2031363dffacb.png

Here is the tight market in diesel.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/global-distillate-stocks-low-despite-industrial-slowdown-2023-06-13/

"...over the last 4-6 weeks, diesel and gas oil cracks have stabilised and recovered slightly, as inventories have remained lower than expected a few months ago:

  • In Europe, distillate inventories had increased by +32 million barrels at the end of May 2023 compared with their low point at the end of June 2022, but were still -32 million barrels (-8% or -1.00 standard deviations) below the prior 10-year seasonal average.
  • In Singapore, inventories had increased by +2 million barrels by early June 2023 compared with June 2022 but were still -2.5 million barrels (-23% or -1.16 standard deviations) below the 10-year average.
  • In the United States, stocks had risen by +5 million barrels since June 2022 but were still -22 million barrels (-16% or -1.18 standard deviations) below the 10-year seasonal average."
Edited by Ecocharger

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23 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

You have a pretty good bag of wind yourself, Jay.

But wind and solar are still a small percentage of total energy. Not reliable, either.

In Texas they are a big percentage of electricity and with batteries they are extremely reliable. 

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19 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Here is the tight market in diesel.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/global-distillate-stocks-low-despite-industrial-slowdown-2023-06-13/

"...over the last 4-6 weeks, diesel and gas oil cracks have stabilised and recovered slightly, as inventories have remained lower than expected a few months ago:

  • In Europe, distillate inventories had increased by +32 million barrels at the end of May 2023 compared with their low point at the end of June 2022, but were still -32 million barrels (-8% or -1.00 standard deviations) below the prior 10-year seasonal average.
  • In Singapore, inventories had increased by +2 million barrels by early June 2023 compared with June 2022 but were still -2.5 million barrels (-23% or -1.16 standard deviations) below the 10-year average.
  • In the United States, stocks had risen by +5 million barrels since June 2022 but were still -22 million barrels (-16% or -1.18 standard deviations) below the 10-year seasonal average."

Supply is below average which should drive the price above average but it isn't so true demand is below average.

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3 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

In Texas they are a big percentage of electricity and with batteries they are extremely reliable. 

They failed last week.

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2 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Supply is below average which should drive the price above average but it isn't so true demand is below average.

New investment inflows into diesel prove you wrong.

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(edited)

13 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

New investment inflows into diesel prove you wrong.

Moving deck chairs on the Titanic.

LONDON, June 19 (Reuters) - Portfolio investors are rotating positions from crude oil to middle distillates – anticipating that the low level of distillate inventories will keep prices relatively firm even if the global economy and petroleum consumption slow.

It is a refining shortage not higher demand. The price tells the tale as every economist knows and it should be above average but it isn't.

 

image.png.a85ba4f1fe062fcdc4d310212fcb88d6.png

Nov 15, 2022  One of the causes of the ongoing diesel shortage is the loss of U.S. refining capacity
 
Edited by Jay McKinsey

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11 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Moving deck chairs on the Titanic.

LONDON, June 19 (Reuters) - Portfolio investors are rotating positions from crude oil to middle distillates – anticipating that the low level of distillate inventories will keep prices relatively firm even if the global economy and petroleum consumption slow.

It is a refining shortage not higher demand. The price tells the tale as every economist knows and it should be above average but it isn't.

 

image.png.a85ba4f1fe062fcdc4d310212fcb88d6.png

Nov 15, 2022  One of the causes of the ongoing diesel shortage is the loss of U.S. refining capacity
 

Those quotes are more than a year old, old boy.

Right now, demand for fossil fuels is decent considering the economic headwinds and expected recession.

And with the current rolling stock dominated by fossil fuel vehicles, the future is bright.

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(edited)

 

4 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

Those quotes are more than a year old, old boy.

Right now, demand for fossil fuels is decent considering the economic headwinds and expected recession.

And with the current rolling stock dominated by fossil fuel vehicles, the future is bright.

If you had even one competent economic brain cell you would know how to do research before making a fool of yourself. The refinery shortage hasn't changed. 

As the articles from a year ago say, the diesel shortage is due to a lack of US refining production.

Here are those numbers:

image.png.a3c2d016609f2e8f819cfc6c70ef34c3.png

Here are the current numbers:

image.png.bcdc9ee121fe63564a77f4216a0c9354.png

As you can clearly see the US distillate production has increased by a stupendous 1%.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WDIRPUS2&f=W

Meanwhile you will see that the inflation adjusted price of diesel has dropped since June of last year by 40%!!!!:

image.thumb.png.7e9d0e8b7b2cf8c1ad854f3ad515d01a.png

https://www.macrotrends.net/2479/heating-oil-prices-historical-chart-data

That is a tremendous drop in demand!!!!!

See what happens when you go up against a real economist.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Jay McKinsey

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(edited)

15 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

You have a pretty good bag of wind yourself, Jay.

But wind and solar are still a small percentage of total energy. Not reliable, either.

Wind and solar provided more than 25% of electric power for Texas last year.

THAT is NOT "small potatoes". 

Power produced from solar and wind is typically put on the market first because it’s cheapest.

Since it consumes ZERO fuels, they tend to rub the petroleum lobby political contributors the wrong way.

THAT shows up in Texas politics.

"Legislators have passed bills to prop up gas-fueled power generators. One would offer companies low- or zero-interest loans to modernize existing plants or build new ones; another would likely raise electricity costs to send more money to plants that promise to be available to produce power when grid conditions are tight. Senators also pushed a bill that would restrict wind and solar developments".

Gee , that sounds like use of public funds and "choosing sides" to support a fossil fuel industry (aka, a "special interest"), to me.

Edited by turbguy
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4 hours ago, turbguy said:

Wind and solar provided more than 25% of electric power for Texas last year.

THAT is NOT "small potatoes". 

Power produced from solar and wind is typically put on the market first because it’s cheapest.

Since it consumes ZERO fuels, they tend to rub the petroleum lobby political contributors the wrong way.

THAT shows up in Texas politics.

"Legislators have passed bills to prop up gas-fueled power generators. One would offer companies low- or zero-interest loans to modernize existing plants or build new ones; another would likely raise electricity costs to send more money to plants that promise to be available to produce power when grid conditions are tight. Senators also pushed a bill that would restrict wind and solar developments".

Gee , that sounds like use of public funds and "choosing sides" to support a fossil fuel industry (aka, a "special interest"), to me.

Texas, unlike the REST of the world has bottomless FREE natural gas to balance crappy horrendously EXPENSIVE wind/solar.  

Texas utilities never paid for those wind/solar by and large.  People from other states "investing" in pie in the sky green movement did so and became the only reason it is built there to begin with as Texas has a private grid by and large which anyone can put power onto and big utilities are not the ones who own the generation plants, but rather the power lines.... while said people(cough you) pretend wind/solar is cheapest... which it clearly is NOT as the TEXAS utilities are not building them as they would be STUPID to do so compared to NG which is ~free. 

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(edited)

2 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Texas, unlike the REST of the world has bottomless FREE natural gas to balance crappy horrendously EXPENSIVE wind/solar.  

Texas utilities never paid for those wind/solar by and large.  People from other states "investing" in pie in the sky green movement did so and became the only reason it is built there to begin with as Texas has a private grid by and large which anyone can put power onto and big utilities are not the ones who own the generation plants, but rather the power lines.... while said people(cough you) pretend wind/solar is cheapest... which it clearly is NOT as the TEXAS utilities are not building them as they would be STUPID to do so compared to NG which is ~free. 

HaHaHa... Ercot, the private grid of which you speak, which is all Texan built the power lines for wind and solar. End of story.

Edited by Jay McKinsey

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12 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Texas, unlike the REST of the world has bottomless FREE natural gas to balance crappy horrendously EXPENSIVE wind/solar.  

Texas utilities never paid for those wind/solar by and large.  People from other states "investing" in pie in the sky green movement did so and became the only reason it is built there to begin with as Texas has a private grid by and large which anyone can put power onto and big utilities are not the ones who own the generation plants, but rather the power lines.... while said people(cough you) pretend wind/solar is cheapest... which it clearly is NOT as the TEXAS utilities are not building them as they would be STUPID to do so compared to NG which is ~free. 

Ahhh, FREE??

 

Clipboard1.jpg

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On 6/25/2023 at 2:48 PM, Jay McKinsey said:

 

If you had even one competent economic brain cell you would know how to do research before making a fool of yourself. The refinery shortage hasn't changed. 

As the articles from a year ago say, the diesel shortage is due to a lack of US refining production.

Here are those numbers:

image.png.a3c2d016609f2e8f819cfc6c70ef34c3.png

Here are the current numbers:

image.png.bcdc9ee121fe63564a77f4216a0c9354.png

As you can clearly see the US distillate production has increased by a stupendous 1%.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WDIRPUS2&f=W

Meanwhile you will see that the inflation adjusted price of diesel has dropped since June of last year by 40%!!!!:

image.thumb.png.7e9d0e8b7b2cf8c1ad854f3ad515d01a.png

https://www.macrotrends.net/2479/heating-oil-prices-historical-chart-data

That is a tremendous drop in demand!!!!!

See what happens when you go up against a real economist.

 

 

 

 

 

You cannot be a real economist without studying econometrics, old boy.

You missed the recent reports showing that new investment is flowing into diesel, in response to demand pressures.

That shows a market on the way up. You want to skip over the last 12 months? That shows your lack of inderstanding of how the markets function, they change month to month.

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16 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

HaHaHa... Ercot, the private grid of which you speak, which is all Texan built the power lines for wind and solar. End of story.

Which you showed us is unreliable as a supplier of energy for industry, due to overreliance on wind and solar.

Thank you for the demonstration.

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6 hours ago, turbguy said:

Ahhh, FREE??

 

Clipboard1.jpg

Looks like fossil fuel demand is ramping up...thanks for the data.

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1 minute ago, Ecocharger said:

You cannot be a real economist without studying econometrics, old boy.

You missed the recent reports showing that new investment is flowing into diesel, in response to demand pressures.

That shows a market on the way up. You want to skip over the last 12 months? That shows your lack of inderstanding of how the markets function, they change month to month.

As I already referenced, the investment in diesel is just because  it is seen as the last part of the petroleum market to decline. 

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