E-car Sales Collapse

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

Looks good from here...GM has 100 units in stock...my god when are they going to sack the CEO..

https://gmauthority.com/blog/2023/03/chevy-bolt-ev-inventory-running-very-tight-going-into-march-2023/

National inventory for the Chevy Bolt EV was running very tight going into March of the 2023 calendar year, GM Authority has learned.

According to sources familiar with GM’s go-to-market operations, Chevy Bolt EV inventory was running at 110 units in stock across the U.S. going into March, very small figure indeed.

Edited April 25, 2023 by Eyes Wide Open

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

So much for 5yrs development and no deployment. Billions in losses and it ends. Meanwhile we have a 60 yr old women dancing in Stilettos..what have we become...

GM to end production of electric Chevy Bolt, its first mass-market EV, later this year

PUBLISHED TUE, APR 25 20238:57 AM EDTUPDATED 2 HOURS AGO

Michael Wayland@MIKEWAYLAND

W

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/25/gm-bolt-ev-production-to-end-later-this-year.html

Edited April 25, 2023 by Eyes Wide Open

[turbguy + 1,543]

2 hours ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

So much for 5yrs development and no deployment. Billions in losses and it ends. Meanwhile we have a 60 yr old women dancing in Stilettos..what have we become...

GM to end production of electric Chevy Bolt, its first mass-market EV, later this year

PUBLISHED TUE, APR 25 20238:57 AM EDTUPDATED 2 HOURS AGO

Michael Wayland@MIKEWAYLAND

W

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/25/gm-bolt-ev-production-to-end-later-this-year.html

I understand that Ford stopped producing the Model A some time ago, as well...

[Ron Wagner + 707]

On 4/15/2023 at 12:48 AM, Ron Wagner said:

 

“Locked out of market:” Why Australia trails the world in electric vehicle uptake

• NOVEMBER 17, 2022
• 38 COMMENTS
• 3 MINUTE READ
• RACHEL WILLIAMSON

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Australians are being effectively “locked out of the EV market” by the lack of supply and model choice, and its sales of electric cars are just a fraction of those in other western markets, and barely above those in developing markets.

BlombergNEF’s new Zero Emission Vehicles Factbook paints a bleak picture for EV sales in Australia, despite a recent boost and some efforts from the new federal government and most state governments to provide some incentives and support for EV charging infrastructure.

 

Australia has access to just 60 different variants of EV models right now, according to the Electric Vehicle Council’s State of Electric Vehicles report in October.

BNEF figures show 318 EV models available around the world. China has access to 280, Europe to 206, and the US to just 84.

The 68-page BNEF report barely mentions Australia, which is noticeable for its lack of fossil fuel vehicle phase out targets, and even a vehicle emissions target. Australia did not rate a mention for electric commercial, two-wheel or bus sales.

The federal government is currently planning vehicle fuel standards legislation, and EV incentives such as removing fringe benefit taxes on certain vehicles, and a national EV policy.

State incentives include the ACT’s ban on new petrol and diesel vehicles from 2035, as well as date for when government fleets need to be zero emission, rebates or tax waivers on EV purchases, and investments into public charging infrastructure.

EVs proving themselves as emissions killers

The benefits of going electric are becoming ever more stark.

Battery EVs made in 2022 have a lower life cycle carbon dioxide emissions than combustion cars, thanks to rapidly rising shares of renewable energy in power systems

“Cleaner electricity means cleaner- running BEVs. This means that the emissions advantage of BEVs against ICEs will widen further. By 2030, lifecycle CO2 emissions of BEVs will be 86%, 80% and 56% lower in Germany, the US and China than for comparable ICEs,” BNEF said.

BNEF’s data shows EVs will have eliminated about 152 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions by the end of 2022, a figure that includes the increase in power-sector emissions created by higher electricity demand and makes up 2.4 per cent of all road transport emissions.

Zero-emission road transport is possible, as EU carbon dioxide targets, that effectively ban internal combustion cars, achieving that goal in 3035.

EVs and fuel cell vehicles are expected to avoid 1.7 million barrels of oil a day in 2022, or about 3.8 per cent of total oil demand.

“In BNEF’s Net-Zero Scenario, which achieves a zero-emission vehicle fleet globally by 2050, oil displacement increases to over 7 million barrels per day in 2030 – roughly equivalent to Russia’s total oil and products exports prior to the war. This figure rises to nearly 16 million barrels per day in 2035,” the report said.

China, Europe lead EV adoption

China and Europe are the world’s EV leaders, with almost a quarter of all passenger cars sold in each region during the first half of 2022 being electric.

Globally, passenger EV sales more than doubled in 2021, to 6.6 million. In the first half of 2022 that figure was already nearly 4.3 million.

BNEF has the most optimistic outlook for EV adoption across commercial and passenger fleets, of 781 million by 2040, but it notes that IEA, OPEC, BP and ExxonMobil are all drastically revising their forecasts upwards as well.

“Companies forecasting ZEV adoption now see tens of millions more BEVs on the road in the future than they expected in 2020, or 2021. The biggest reason for higher outlooks is more policy support and growing consumer acceptance,” the report said.

But that growth is not evenly spread around the world.

Germany, UK, France, China and the rest of Europe are leading. At the bottom are the ‘rest of the world’, India, Japan, Australia, India and South East Asia.

IMAGE: BNEF

“In over half of the global car market, EV adoption is still below 10% of sales. This includes countries like the US [6.7 per cent] and Japan [2 per cent] , which are still looking to catch up,” the report said.

But the Inflation Reduction Act and revised fuel economy regulations in the US are expected to supercharge EV adoption to ‘leader’ level, while subsidies in Japan could help that country leave the ‘behind’ group.

The low-hanging fruit could be sales of zero-emission commercial vehicles, however, as just 2.5 per cent of commercial vehicles sold in the first half of 2022 were electric and most of these being vans. Sales are racing ahead in South Korea, China, Germany and the UK.

Rachel Williamson

Rachel Williamson is a science and business journalist, who focuses on climate change-related health and environmental issues.

They only need one affordable compact vehicle for a major breakthrough, Just like the Model T. Cost to value is the trick. ICE can easily adapt and even use natural gas in a bifuel approach. 

[Ron Wagner + 707]

On 4/17/2023 at 11:29 AM, Rob Plant said:

Ron you seem to be confused!

My post and its links were talking about SMR's (small modular reactors) ie nuclear, not hydrogen powered ships.

Container ships powered throughout their life by an SMR. These are cheaper than bunker fuel already and they arent even mass produced.

They are cheaper than NG / LPG and these fluctuate greatly in price as we have seen.

SMR's also have zero emissions.

This is currently the situation on ship emissions

https://www.statista.com/statistics/216048/worldwide-co2-emissions-by-ship-type/

Leave it with you.

Not much to hang your hat on! https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2020/11/09/international-marine-shipping-industry-considers-nuclear-propulsion/?sh=277ad9b5562c

Natural gas powered ships are the future of shipping. Natural gas is very plentiful and becoming more so. It is very clean. CO2 is not a real pollutant. It benefits plants and agriculture worldwide. 

https://lngprime.com/europe/dnv-222-lng-powered-ships-ordered-in-2022/70166/#:~:text=43 LNG bunkering vessels and 149 LPG-powered ships&text=In addition to 876 confirmed,vessels%2C according to the platform.

Edited April 25, 2023 by Ron Wagner

[Ron Wagner + 707]

On 4/17/2023 at 5:56 AM, Michael Sanches said:

The spontaneous fire problem continues to grow as an increasing number of homes and apartment buildings are burned down and an increasing number of people are being killed in fires started by e-bikes. I wouldn't be surprised if apartment contracts include a no e-bike clause, just like many have no grilling clauses, now. In fact many cities have no grilling withing 10 feet of a structure and I wouldn't be surprised to see such laws adopted for e-bikes and EVs.

Especially those made in China. 

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

10 hours ago, Ron Wagner said:

Not much to hang your hat on! https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2020/11/09/international-marine-shipping-industry-considers-nuclear-propulsion/?sh=277ad9b5562c

Natural gas powered ships are the future of shipping. Natural gas is very plentiful and becoming more so. It is very clean. CO2 is not a real pollutant. It benefits plants and agriculture worldwide. 

https://lngprime.com/europe/dnv-222-lng-powered-ships-ordered-in-2022/70166/#:~:text=43 LNG bunkering vessels and 149 LPG-powered ships&text=In addition to 876 confirmed,vessels%2C according to the platform.

Agreed with Co2 not being a pollutant.

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

18 hours ago, Ron Wagner said:

They only need one affordable compact vehicle for a major breakthrough, Just like the Model T. Cost to value is the trick. ICE can easily adapt and even use natural gas in a bifuel approach. 

Actually Ron that happened long ago, it was the ecoboost engine. Now a serious question...the ecoboost has about a 5000 dollar cost and one puts that In a budget focus?  Made simple a 15k base focus now runs 20k. Here's the irony, when tested for emissions in a real world environment the is "no" measurable difference. 

Only in a lab can one measure the gains in modern engine tech. By the way those engines are on par with say gran prix tech..only to commute around town...What a absolute shit show.

A note here...If you have ever wondered why going thru a emissions testing facility one only has there onboard (computer) checked for functionality and not actual tailpipe emissions. The answer would be over 50% would fail. Can't have that now can we.

Edited April 26, 2023 by Eyes Wide Open

[RichieRich$ + 65]

On 2/7/2023 at 8:09 PM, Jay McKinsey said:

And then the sales climb back up to the same level and they cut more subsidies. It is almost as if they have a market plan that is working, hmmm...

You're the EV‘S  Industry external optimist Jay!

 

[RichieRich$ + 65]

The Chevy Bolt, GM's popular electric vehicle, is on its way out, Another One bites the dust!

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

On 4/25/2023 at 1:40 PM, turbguy said:

I understand that Ford stopped producing the Model A some time ago, as well...

Ya Don't say...Might I ask did Mr Ford have a working model as a replacement it would appear so. Actually is there a Woking model world wide aside from Tesla? 

By the way...The T was sold out for yrs and yrs

 

https://electrek.co/2023/01/11/gm-to-accelerate-cadillac-lyriq-rollout-after-122-deliveries-in-2022/#:~:text=After delivering only 122 Cadillac,customers receive the best quality.

GM only delivered 122 Cadillac Lyric EVs in 2022, here’s why that’s about to change soon..Is this just another Boat Anchor?

 

Edited April 27, 2023 by Eyes Wide Open

[notsonice + 1,255]

8 hours ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Ya Don't say...Might I ask did Mr Ford have a working model as a replacement it would appear so. Actually is there a Woking model world wide aside from Tesla? 

By the way...The T was sold out for yrs and yrs

 

https://electrek.co/2023/01/11/gm-to-accelerate-cadillac-lyriq-rollout-after-122-deliveries-in-2022/#:~:text=After delivering only 122 Cadillac,customers receive the best quality.

GM only delivered 122 Cadillac Lyric EVs in 2022, here’s why that’s about to change soon..Is this just another Boat Anchor?

 

who cars about one model ???? 

reality is 

IEA: EVs Will Account For 20% Of All Car Sales This Year

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Apr 26, 2023, 12:30 PM CDT

The surge in electric vehicle sales will continue this year after a record 2022, with EVs accounting for nearly one-fifth of global car sales in 2023, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday. 

The momentum of EVs taking a growing share of the global car market is set to continue in the coming years to the point of displacing 5 million barrels per day of oil, the IEA said in its annual report Global EV Outlook 2023.

Last year, EV sales accounted for 14% of all new cars sold globally, up from around 9% in 2021 and less than 5% in 2020. China, Europe, and the United States continue to dominate EV sales, with China the frontrunner once again, accounting for around 60% of global electric car sales.  

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

9 hours ago, notsonice said:

who cars about one model ???? 

reality is 

IEA: EVs Will Account For 20% Of All Car Sales This Year

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Apr 26, 2023, 12:30 PM CDT

The surge in electric vehicle sales will continue this year after a record 2022, with EVs accounting for nearly one-fifth of global car sales in 2023, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday. 

The momentum of EVs taking a growing share of the global car market is set to continue in the coming years to the point of displacing 5 million barrels per day of oil, the IEA said in its annual report Global EV Outlook 2023.

Last year, EV sales accounted for 14% of all new cars sold globally, up from around 9% in 2021 and less than 5% in 2020. China, Europe, and the United States continue to dominate EV sales, with China the frontrunner once again, accounting for around 60% of global electric car sales.  

And the band played on....

Edited April 27, 2023 by Eyes Wide Open

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/gm-passes-ford-to-take-no-2-spot-in-ev-sales-behind-tesla/

GM passes Ford to take No. 2 spot in EV sales behind Tesla

DETROIT (AP) — General Motors rode strong first-quarter sales of the Chevrolet Bolt to bump crosstown rival Ford out of second place in the U.S. electric vehicle sales race.

But GM’s EV sales of 20,670 were still far below those of industry leader Tesla, which delivered more than 161,000 vehicles in the U.S. from January to March, according to estimates from Motorintelligence.com.

April 4, 2023 at 11:39 am

 

Someone needs the Seattle Times  to phone home...

 

Fake News in the EV crowd? Ya Don't Say

 

 

 

Edited April 27, 2023 by Eyes Wide Open

[gkam44 + 26]

This is ridiculous. We have two EVs powered by our PV system on the roof.  It paid back in three years and now gives us free power for the household and both electric cars. None of my friends who got EVs regret the option, and are wildly in favor of them.

How many here have an EV?  If not how do you expect to have any credibility?

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

3 hours ago, gkam44 said:

This is ridiculous. We have two EVs powered by our PV system on the roof.  It paid back in three years and now gives us free power for the household and both electric cars. None of my friends who got EVs regret the option, and are wildly in favor of them.

How many here have an EV?  If not how do you expect to have any credibility?

Sure if you live down south with no tall trees and do not drive far, or want to tow anything EV's are a slam dunk always have been.  Used an electric bike for groceries for years powered via nickel batteries.  Anything else, marginal only waiting to newer, larger battery packs giving even better length of life for cycle lifespan. If we can finally get 500Wh/kg batteries(2X current) then even Towing etc will 100% take over with the only exception being Lumber/construction/Farm equipment who has to run 12->20 hours a day far far away from infrastructure.

[Ron Wagner + 707]

On 4/26/2023 at 10:54 AM, Eyes Wide Open said:

Actually Ron that happened long ago, it was the ecoboost engine. Now a serious question...the ecoboost has about a 5000 dollar cost and one puts that In a budget focus?  Made simple a 15k base focus now runs 20k. Here's the irony, when tested for emissions in a real world environment the is "no" measurable difference. 

Only in a lab can one measure the gains in modern engine tech. By the way those engines are on par with say gran prix tech..only to commute around town...What a absolute shit show.

A note here...If you have ever wondered why going thru a emissions testing facility one only has there onboard (computer) checked for functionality and not actual tailpipe emissions. The answer would be over 50% would fail. Can't have that now can we.

Sorry I meant to say Electric Vehicle. I agree with your statement. I just talked to friends who bought a Ford Fusion and they said they get 37 MPG on their Ford Fusion which may qualify as a "full size car at the rental agencies." My Mirage only beats that by a little. Affordable ICE compacts are readily available at reasonable prices. 

[Ron Wagner + 707]

9 hours ago, gkam44 said:

This is ridiculous. We have two EVs powered by our PV system on the roof.  It paid back in three years and now gives us free power for the household and both electric cars. None of my friends who got EVs regret the option, and are wildly in favor of them.

How many here have an EV?  If not how do you expect to have any credibility?

Americans aren’t lining up to buy EVs — despite the new $7,500 Inflation Reduction Act tax credit. Here are the 2 big reasons why

3.2k

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0:00

 

2:05

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Global EV sales expected to surge 35%, over 14 million cars in 2023

 

 

 

 EV sales jumping in 2022 
 compared to the years prior. 

Vishesh Raisinghani

Thu, April 27, 2023 at 6:45 AM CDT

 

 

If only electric vehicles would shoot sparks — in the marketplace, that is.

Despite the billions of dollars invested by private corporations, and government subsidies, Americans are still indifferent as a whole over electric vehicles.

Just two in every 10 Americans say they are “very likely” to buy an EV as their next car, according to a recent survey by the University of Chicago’s Energy Policy Institute and the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

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The U.S. is an outlier on the issue

Two-thirds of Europeans said their next car would likely be an EV, a recent EIB climate survey shows. Meanwhile, EVs already account for 86% of new car sales in Norway and 72% in Iceland, according to statistics cited by Canary Media.

Even Chinese consumers are more enthusiastic about this transition than their American counterparts, those numbers show; 16% of all cars sold in China in 2021 were electric, whereas the figure in the U.S. is just 5%, ranking it number 19 out of the 20 countries charted.

The Biden Administration can’t be happy with those findings.

The transition to clean energy is a key part of the government’s agenda and subsidies in the recently-passed Inflation Reduction Act were supposed to make EVs more appealing. The legislation earmarked up to $7,500 in tax credits for each American motorist who ditched their gas guzzler. The administration’s strict new pollution limits are intended to push EV sales to 67% of the market by 2032.

Unfortunately, the carrot-and-stick approach hasn’t worked. To drive EV adoption higher, the government and auto industry need to resolve two key hurdles for ordinary consumers: cost and infrastructure.

Cost and charger conundrum

Roughly 80% of Americans name “costs” and the “availability of charging stations” as their EV biggest concerns. There are only 53,000 electric charging stations in the U.S. compared to 145,000 gas stations, according to the World Economic Forum. Charging an EV is substantially more time consuming, which explains why charging stations need to exceed gas stations for comparable availability.

Reliability ranks as another key issue. Drivers seldom have to worry about their local gas station being out of service – but one-fourth of charging stations tested by climate advocacy group Cool the Earth didn’t function.

Resolving these issues could take years, which means the Biden Administration’s target of 67% EV adoption is likely unrealistic. It also means gas-powered vehicles and fossil fuels are here to stay for the foreseeable future. The petroleum sector is under appreciated by many investors, which could create bargain opportunities.

[Ron Wagner + 707]

6 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Sure if you live down south with no tall trees and do not drive far, or want to tow anything EV's are a slam dunk always have been.  Used an electric bike for groceries for years powered via nickel batteries.  Anything else, marginal only waiting to newer, larger battery packs giving even better length of life for cycle lifespan. If we can finally get 500Wh/kg batteries(2X current) then even Towing etc will 100% take over with the only exception being Lumber/construction/Farm equipment who has to run 12->20 hours a day far far away from infrastructure.

How much did you pay for your solar system? That needs to be factored in. 

[Ron Wagner + 707]

21 hours ago, notsonice said:

who cars about one model ???? 

reality is 

IEA: EVs Will Account For 20% Of All Car Sales This Year

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Apr 26, 2023, 12:30 PM CDT

The surge in electric vehicle sales will continue this year after a record 2022, with EVs accounting for nearly one-fifth of global car sales in 2023, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday. 

The momentum of EVs taking a growing share of the global car market is set to continue in the coming years to the point of displacing 5 million barrels per day of oil, the IEA said in its annual report Global EV Outlook 2023.

Last year, EV sales accounted for 14% of all new cars sold globally, up from around 9% in 2021 and less than 5% in 2020. China, Europe, and the United States continue to dominate EV sales, with China the frontrunner once again, accounting for around 60% of global electric car sales.  

Put subsidies on ICE vehicles of comparable costs and you would have a fair comparison. 

[Ron Wagner + 707]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-25/tesla-model-y-price-cuts-mean-elon-musk-s-either-disruptive-or-desperate?utm_campaign=bw&utm_medium=distro&utm_source=yahooUS&leadSource=uverify wall

This article agrees with my Musk vs. Ford comparison. 

 

Musk Bets the House of Tesla on Low Prices and Razor-Thin Margins

The man who upended the auto industry is now offering steep discounts for his electric vehicles. Is this more disruption, or desperation?

Model Y

Courtesy: Tesla

By

Craig Trudell

April 25, 2023 at 6:01 PM CDTUpdated onApril 26, 2023 at 10:00 AM CDT

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TSLA

TESLA INC

160.19

USD

+6.44+4.19%

GM

GENERAL MOTORS C

32.72

USD

+0.50+1.55%

RIVN

RIVIAN AUTOMOT-A

12.67

USD

+0.63+5.23%

LCID

LUCID GROUP INC

8.17

USD

+0.95+13.16%

F

FORD MOTOR CO

11.61

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+0.07+0.61%

Open

 

Elon Musk’s bid to dominate global carmaking is taking a new turn, and dividing opinion. Some see him as Henry Ford in the age of the Model T; others, as Steve Jobs ushering in the iPhone era. But what if he’s Rick Wagoner, who steered General Motors Co. into a ditch?

Musk’s Tesla Inc. has cut prices of its electric cars at least a half-dozen times already this year, shaving almost a third of the cost off its top-selling model in the US. The strategy has no precedent—nor is there consensus as to whether it heralds more industry disruption or signals Musk’s desperation.

The camp comparing Musk to Ford includes none other than the current boss of the company that bears his name. “Look up 1913,” Ford Motor Co. Chief Executive Officer Jim Farley told reporters last week, suggesting that Musk’s actions—develop an epochal product, innovate how it’s made and drive costs down—are reminiscent of Ford’s.

The Jobsian theory is that Musk is bringing Silicon Valley tactics to the EV industry. Just as the iPhone rendered Nokia and Motorola devices obsolete, Musk wants and needs to obliterate Rivian Automotive Inc. and Lucid Group Inc.

GM is the cautionary tale. Wagoner doubled down on incentives instead of accepting that GM was cranking out too many cars after the Sept. 11 terror attacks. The “Keep America Rolling” campaign set Detroit on a path to destruction—GM and Chrysler went bankrupt in 2009, and Ford narrowly avoided Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

Musk’s plans have been under the microscope before. Back in 2018, bearish short sellers Jim Chanos and David Einhorn were at odds with ARK Investment Management founder Cathie Wood and billionaire investor Ron Baron over whether Tesla would survive its early struggles to mass-manufacture cars, let alone thrive. The company’s market valuation soared from around $57 billion at the end of that year to more than $1 trillion as recently as April 2022. It dipped back below $500 billion in intraday trading Wednesday.

 

 

 

Westly: Tesla Can Afford to Trigger a Global Price War

Play

7:30

 

 

 

 

Westly: Tesla Can Afford to Trigger a Global Price War

Musk’s latest strategic pivot will determine what happens next in an industry that Tesla already has turned on its head over the past decade. After the pandemic led to the biggest disruption in generations to auto supply-and-demand dynamics, Musk is betting his competitors will have little choice but to respond to his price cuts.

“We are trying to resist,” Luca de Meo, CEO of French carmaker Renault, said this week of Tesla’s pricing pressure. Speaking in January in his capacity as president of Europe’s auto trade group, he said carmakers will need to make money selling EVs. “Otherwise this will become—from the beginning—a not-very-healthy business.”

Even as rivals seek to ride out the price-cutting storm, a closer look at Tesla itself reveals that things are changing within Musk’s own empire.

Investors have always been able to rely on Musk to talk about growth. In its early years, Tesla expanded in fits and starts from a single car plant in California. After opening a second factory in Shanghai in early 2020, the company issued a wildly ambitious forecast: 50% average growth in vehicle deliveries over multiple years, with manufacturing capacity scaled up as quickly as possible.

Tesla made good on part of the plan, opening two new car factories in two months early last year: the first near Berlin and the second in Austin.

Tesla Is Ramping Up Production Capacity

New plants roughly doubled potential output in 2022

Source: Company statements

 

What Musk hasn’t grown in the past few years is Tesla’s lineup. Those two plants in Germany and Texas only boosted capacity to produce Model Y sport utility vehicles, the most recent new passenger car the company has added to its repertoire. The Model Y has been a smash hit and was the main reason that, in the first five quarters after Tesla projected 50% average annual growth, it increased deliveries much faster than that.

 

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But in the last four quarters—even with all that additional capacity coming online—the company has fallen below that pace.

Growth at Tesla Isn’t Going According to Plan

Year-over-year change since Tesla forecast 50% deliveries growth

Source: Company statements

 

So is the Model Y getting a bit stale, or do the problems lie with the rest of Tesla’s lineup, which is more dated?

Demand for the Model Y has been remarkable considering that it sold for more than $65,000 last year in the US. There wasn’t much opportunity for a vehicle that expensive to go further up the sales charts in good times, let alone in a rising interest-rate environment.

With a starting price now just below $47,000 and a refreshed version reportedly on the way, the Model Y has a chance to top global sales rankings, a feat no one would have thought possible a few years ago.

 

Read More: Tesla Drops Model Y Starting Price Below the Average US Vehicle

The Model 3 is in greater need of a face-lift, as it’s coming up on its sixth birthday without having undergone a major redesign. Reuters has reported that it, too, will be updated later this year.

Two of the World’s Top-Selling EVs Are Teslas

Musk’s company is ahead of the pack

Source: Jato, Motor1, BloombergNEF

 

To the extent Musk gets compared to Henry Ford or Steve Jobs, it’s based on the success of the Model Y and Model 3. The only other vehicle near the top of the global EV sales rankings is a $4,500 minicar made by a joint venture between two Chinese manufacturers and GM.

With two EVs in high-volume production achieving unmatched economies of scale, and manufacturing innovations ranging from single-piece vehicle structures to simpler batteries, Tesla can bring costs down along with the prices of its vehicles. Rivals such as Rivian and Lucid are far from breaking even, and the same can be said for Ford and other incumbents now standing up their EV operations.

Making these businesses sustainable before battery costs reach parity with combustion engines was going to be hard enough. Musk’s new direction is now making that task all the more difficult.

“You have to meet the customer where they’re at, from an affordability perspective,” GM CEO Mary Barra said Tuesday. On Bloomberg Television, CFO Paul Jacobson made clear the automaker has its eye on Tesla. “We’ve got a competitor who is posting really strong results and really strong margins. We need to make sure that we lower our costs.”

Automakers are quite used to operating on razor-thin margins, and Musk is bullish, insisting only last week that Tesla could theoretically make zero profit upfront and earn money later off self-driving software.

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There are plenty of reasons to be skeptical about this, not least of which is that he’s long oversold Tesla’s autonomous-driving capabilities. It’s unclear whether he’s truly willing to torch Tesla’s profit margins—he is sitting on a sizable and growing cash pile—or if it’s actually the case that he has less choice in the matter than he’s let on. Musk didn’t immediately reply to a request for comment.

Tesla’s Growing Cash Cushion

The carmaker has reduced its debt even while scaling production

Source: Company filings

 

After Tesla fell well short of its growth objective last year, increasing vehicle sales by 40%, it set a production target for this year roughly in line with that rate, if not slower. Even after all the discounting Musk did in the first quarter, deliveries increased 37% from a year earlier.

 

The markdowns meant that Tesla’s automotive gross margin—already a longstanding focal point for investors—was the figure Wall Street was anticipating when the company reported first-quarter earnings last week. Tesla had advised that the figure would stay above 20% this year.

Instead of being upfront about falling short, Tesla removed any mention of automotive gross margin from its earnings deck, forcing analysts and investors to do the math. At 19%, the margin was the lowest in 11 quarters.

A Troubling Trend for Tesla’s Profit Margin

Automotive gross margin has slid since the start of last year

Source: Company statements

Note: Excludes regulatory credits

Tesla also doesn’t have the greatest track record in generating results with redesigns. The company took a light-touch approach to updating its Model S sedan and Model X SUV two years ago, and those vehicles—first launched in 2012 and 2015, respectively—are now showing their age even after performance and interior upgrades. Tesla delivered just 10,695 units combined in the first quarter, an almost two-year low, despite Musk cutting prices by an average of almost $23,000 apiece.

Tesla marked the S and X down further in the first week of this month, then changed tack, bumping prices back up a bit one day after those earnings came out.

Ford CEO Farley was making a mostly favorable comparison between Musk’s 21st century strategy and Henry Ford’s invention of the moving assembly line 110 years ago. But he did allude to one key lesson Ford eventually learned after his unwillingness to replace the Model T allowed GM and others to catch up.

“What he’s going to learn,” Farley said of Musk, “is that product freshness means a lot.”  —With Keith Naughton, Dorothy Gambrell, Albertina Torsoli and David Welch

(Updates with market value dipping back below $500 billion in the sixth paragraph.)

[Ron Wagner + 707]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nbq_o3l_d9c&pp=ygUbY2hpbmFzIGV2IGluZHVzdHJ5IGNvbGxhcHNl

Chinas EV Industry Collapse

Edited April 28, 2023 by Ron Wagner

[Ron Wagner + 707]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0c5SeK89kGY

 

2500 dealers bankrupt in China as industry on the brink of collapse

The Electric Viking

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[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

1 hour ago, Ron Wagner said:

How much did you pay for your solar system? That needs to be factored in. 

I live in Western Washington... We get as much "solar" as ~London... piss poor joke and we need 5X-->10X more power in winter than summer.  Epic joke. 

That being said, I have picked up 2nd hand solar panels and put them up myself.  Easy to do and was effectively free other than the inverter which I had to buy new.  Neighbor said the panels were "junk"... Why?  Because Solar DOES NOT WORK in Western WASHINGTON other than the SUMMER! And he was replacing his roof and would have cost more to put them BACK on his roof than he would ever "save".   It is an epic joke.  But, hey, I can "play" when something is ~free~. 

[Ron Wagner + 707]

1 minute ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

I live in Western Washington... We get as much "solar" as ~London... piss poor joke and we need 5X-->10X more power in winter than summer.  Epic joke. 

That being said, I have picked up 2nd hand solar panels and put them up myself.  Easy to do and was effectively free other than the inverter which I had to buy new.  Neighbor said the panels were "junk"... Why?  Because Solar DOES NOT WORK in Western WASHINGTON other than the SUMMER! And he was replacing his roof and would have cost more to put them BACK on his roof than he would ever "save".   It is an epic joke.  But, hey, I can "play" when something is ~free~. 

I have a small electrical generator and movable panels for emergency use. We depend on our natural gas line for heat. We have central air and heat but also a small heating stove in the living room that could switch to propane. I plan on getting a natural gas/propane dual fuel generator also. I am tempted to add one or two panels to my roof. I have only one half of my garage that is a good angle with all of our trees. I have an old gasoline generator that I couldn't even start on a trial, but never needed it. 

I am pretty bad at home improvement but YouTube offers everyone great education. 

Congratulations on your system!