E-car Sales Collapse

[Jeroen Goudswaard + 57]

On 8/31/2023 at 6:02 PM, Ecocharger said:

Agree that this is just a money making scheme for the government, there is no rational climate objective here.

It's not about climate in this case. There is an EU directive (even after Brexit still valid in the UK), that warrants EU citizens' right to clean air. There is a limit of 40 micrograms of particulate matter per cubic meter of breathable air as stipulated in this Ambient Air Quality Directive.

[Rob Plant + 2,652]

2 minutes ago, Jeroen Goudswaard said:

London is letting drivers of cars over 18 years(!) pay for access to London. In many places in Europe, you cannot even enter cities with cars that old. NY/California/Rhode Island/Vermont are following suit.

cars over 18 years old are extremely rare in London I can assure you!

I still say to pay a retrospective fine is unfair

[turbguy + 1,426]

2 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

Currently we pay the equivalent of $8.56/gallon

What is it in the US?

Around $4.00 (+/-).  There is a large difference across the USA.

Go here for much further granularity:

https://www.gasbuddy.com/gaspricemap?lat=38.822395&lng=-96.591588&z=4

[Ecocharger + 1,384]

11 hours ago, Jeroen Goudswaard said:

London is letting drivers of cars over 18 years(!) pay for access to London. In many places in Europe, you cannot even enter cities with cars that old. NY/California/Rhode Island/Vermont are following suit.

The supposed "transition" is a joke, it will never happen.

[Ecocharger + 1,384]

11 hours ago, Jeroen Goudswaard said:

It's not about climate in this case. There is an EU directive (even after Brexit still valid in the UK), that warrants EU citizens' right to clean air. There is a limit of 40 micrograms of particulate matter per cubic meter of breathable air as stipulated in this Ambient Air Quality Directive.

But total toxic emissions do not necessarily favor EVs.

Fossil fuel car emissions are trending down toward zero and EVs have their own toxic emissions issues.

https://afdc.energy.gov/vehicles/electric_emissions.html

"In the case of electricity, most electric power plants produce emissions, and there are additional emissions associated with the extraction, processing, and distribution of the primary energy sources they use for electricity production."

Edited September 5, 2023 by Ecocharger

[Ecocharger + 1,384]

EVs are still a miniscule percentage of European vehicles.

If they hope to ban fossil fuel vehicles, the average person will have to leap onto the few EVs still on the road. As of now, EVs are transported to market largely by fossil fuel vehicles. That will stop soon and EVs will no longer be transported to market?

https://www.euronews.com/green/2023/05/08/norway-germany-uk-which-european-countries-have-the-biggest-share-of-electric-cars

"In 2022, the number of these fully electric passenger cars in EU countries increased by 58 per cent compared to 2021 - from 1.9 million to 3.1 million. Between 2019 and 2022 they soared by more than 400 per cent.

More significantly, the share of EVs among the total number of cars rose to 76 per 10,000 in the EU in 2021, up from only 2 per 10,000 in 2013."

So that means about 124 EVs per 10,000 today. Or about 1.24% of European vehicles is EV.

Edited September 6, 2023 by Ecocharger

[TailingsPond + 502]

45 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

EVs are still a miniscule percentage of European vehicles.

If they hope to ban fossil fuel vehicles, the average person will have to leap onto the few EVs still on the road. As of now, EVs are transported to market largely by fossil fuel vehicles. That will stop soon and EVs will no longer be transported to market?

https://www.euronews.com/green/2023/05/08/norway-germany-uk-which-european-countries-have-the-biggest-share-of-electric-cars

"In 2022, the number of these fully electric passenger cars in EU countries increased by 58 per cent compared to 2021 - from 1.9 million to 3.1 million. Between 2019 and 2022 they soared by more than 400 per cent.

More significantly, the share of EVs among the total number of cars rose to 76 per 10,000 in the EU in 2021, up from only 2 per 10,000 in 2013."

So that means about 124 EVs per 10,000 today. Or about 1.24% of European vehicles is EV.

Ecocharge uses plots like this to explain the death of EV's.

Not only are there more EV's the rate of adoption is also increasing. 

 

 

 

Edited September 6, 2023 by TailingsPond

[Ecocharger + 1,384]

25 minutes ago, TailingsPond said:

Ecocharge uses plots like this to explain the death of EV's.

Not only are there more EV's the rate of adoption is also increasing. 

 

 

 

Again, you are compelled to ignore the big picture, which shows that only about 1.24% of European vehicles are EVs, and with EVs now meeting resistance from the projected demand populations, trouble is brewing for the wild fantasies which launched this madness.

[Ecocharger + 1,384]

The stalled EV market in America is mirrored in Europe.

https://europeanconservative.com/articles/news/electric-car-sales-stall/#:~:text=Car manufacturers are producing electric vehicles faster than buyers want them.,-Bridget Ryder&text=Stocks of electric vehicles (EVs,challenge%3A a lack of buyers.

"In the U.S., the nationwide supply of EVs in stock has grown exponentially, nearly 350% this year, reaching more than 92,000 cars coming off assembly lines. The production has led to excess stock. The large number of EVs amounts to a 92-day supply sitting on lots, which is nearly twice the industry average for car inventory at dealerships.

These numbers don’t include Tesla’s stocks, as the company sells directly to customers. 

At the other end of the spectrum, gasoline-powered car stocks are unusually low, sitting currently at 54 days, due, according to Cox Automotive, to production still recovering from pandemic-related supply chain interruptions. The normal industry average for car stocks at dealerships is 70 days. There is also a dearth of supply in hybrid cars, with a relatively tight 44-day average stock at dealerships, according to Cox Automotive. Toyota’s Prius and RAV4 hybrids and plug-in hybrids have just a 30-day supply."

Edited September 6, 2023 by Ecocharger

[TailingsPond + 502]

5 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Again, you are compelled to ignore the big picture, which shows that only about 1.24% of European vehicles are EVs, and with EVs now meeting resistance from the projected demand populations, trouble is brewing for the wild fantasies which launched this madness.

The data set you posted suggests total adoption by 2033.  A nice fit for exponential growth.

Also your math is wrong.

 

 

Edited September 6, 2023 by TailingsPond

[Ecocharger + 1,384]

1 minute ago, TailingsPond said:

The data set you posted suggests total adoption by 2033.  A nice fit for exponential growth.

Also your math is wrong.

 

 

Exponential growth is a joke, won't happen. The markets for EVs have already stalled due to lack of buyer interest.

[TailingsPond + 502]

2 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Exponential growth is a joke, won't happen. The markets for EVs have already stalled due to lack of buyer interest.

Ignoring your own data set now? r squared of 0.99 is pretty good!

Edited September 6, 2023 by TailingsPond

[Ecocharger + 1,384]

1 minute ago, TailingsPond said:

Ignoring your own data set now? r squared of 0.98 is pretty good!

You ignoring reality as usual? EV markets have stalled, no buyer interest, whereas buyers are hot for fossil fuel vehicles.

"In the U.S., the nationwide supply of EVs in stock has grown exponentially, nearly 350% this year, reaching more than 92,000 cars coming off assembly lines. The production has led to excess stock. The large number of EVs amounts to a 92-day supply sitting on lots, which is nearly twice the industry average for car inventory at dealerships.

These numbers don’t include Tesla’s stocks, as the company sells directly to customers. 

At the other end of the spectrum, gasoline-powered car stocks are unusually low, sitting currently at 54 days, due, according to Cox Automotive, to production still recovering from pandemic-related supply chain interruptions. The normal industry average for car stocks at dealerships is 70 days. There is also a dearth of supply in hybrid cars, with a relatively tight 44-day average stock at dealerships, according to Cox Automotive. Toyota’s Prius and RAV4 hybrids and plug-in hybrids have just a 30-day supply."

[TailingsPond + 502]

5 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

You ignoring reality as usual? EV markets have stalled, no buyer interest, whereas buyers are hot for fossil fuel vehicles.

"In the U.S., the nationwide supply of EVs in stock has grown exponentially, nearly 350% this year, reaching more than 92,000 cars coming off assembly lines. The production has led to excess stock. The large number of EVs amounts to a 92-day supply sitting on lots, which is nearly twice the industry average for car inventory at dealerships.

These numbers don’t include Tesla’s stocks, as the company sells directly to customers. 

At the other end of the spectrum, gasoline-powered car stocks are unusually low, sitting currently at 54 days, due, according to Cox Automotive, to production still recovering from pandemic-related supply chain interruptions. The normal industry average for car stocks at dealerships is 70 days. There is also a dearth of supply in hybrid cars, with a relatively tight 44-day average stock at dealerships, according to Cox Automotive. Toyota’s Prius and RAV4 hybrids and plug-in hybrids have just a 30-day supply."

Don't complain that I read the articles you post which say the opposite of what you want.

From your link:

"While their share is still limited for now, the rate of increase over the last decade suggests huge growth in the near future."

They will completely stop making ICE cars soon; so yes, wait times for those will be long.

Edited September 6, 2023 by TailingsPond

[Ecocharger + 1,384]

1 minute ago, TailingsPond said:

Don't complain that I read the articles you post which say the opposite of what you want.

From your link:

"While their share is still limited for now, the rate of increase over the last decade suggests huge growth in the near future."

"Huge growth" "suggested"...sounds pretty vague to me, and rightly so. Projecting future demand for any product is a hazardous business. 

My own projection is that this monstrous fantasy of climate panic will fade and fairly soon. This will be a discredited episode of history, demonstrating once again how humans can occasionally panic and herd over the cliff like lemmings.

[TailingsPond + 502]

14 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

 

"In the U.S., the nationwide supply of EVs in stock has grown exponentially, nearly 350% this year, reaching more than 92,000 cars coming off assembly lines. The production has led to excess stock. The large number of EVs amounts to a 92-day supply sitting on lots, which is nearly twice the industry average for car inventory at dealerships.

 

Your rebuttal against exponential growth in EV's says there is exponential growth in EV's.

Sure they are not instantly being bought but they still exist.  Interest rates are high due to inflation people are not making as many big purchases. 

High inventory lowers prices.  Just need gas prices to tick up and EV's will surge again.

 

Edited September 6, 2023 by TailingsPond

[Ecocharger + 1,384]

Just now, TailingsPond said:

Your rebuttal against exponential growth in EV's says there is exponential growth in EV's.

Sure they are not instantly being bought they still exist.  Interest rates are high due to inflation people are not making as many big purchases. 

High inventory lowers prices.  Just need gas prices to tick up and EV's will surge again.

 

You have rare talent for misreading articles....the growth in PRODUCTION has been exponential, whereas demand has stalled due to lack of buyer interest.

No surprise there...you could not pay me enough to purchase an EV and keep it.

[TailingsPond + 502]

7 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

 

My own projection is that this monstrous fantasy of climate panic will fade and fairly soon.

Define "fairly soon."  Next quarter, next year? 

If your definition of fairly soon is decades then you are missing the boat.  Opportunities lost. 

[TailingsPond + 502]

1 minute ago, Ecocharger said:

You have rare talent for misreading articles....the growth in PRODUCTION has been exponential, whereas demand has stalled due to lack of buyer interest.

No surprise there...you could not pay me enough to purchase an EV and keep it.

You didn't read my post? 

Production and consumption mismatch is fine and good for consumers.  Nice sales. Fact remains the industry is growing exponentially. 

 

[Ecocharger + 1,384]

4 minutes ago, TailingsPond said:

Define "fairly soon."  Next quarter, next year? 

If your definition of fairly soon is decades then you are missing the boat.  Opportunities lost. 

Within the next decade governments will awaken to the data and pull back...that is a much more precise forecast than your masters have provided.

[Ecocharger + 1,384]

6 minutes ago, TailingsPond said:

You didn't read my post? 

Production and consumption mismatch is fine and good for consumers.  Nice sales. Fact remains the industry is growing exponentially. 

 

Overproduction leads to production cutbacks. Any good economist knows that....er, sorry old fellow.

"Notably, Toyota’s only fully electric model, the Bz4X, has a 101-day supply in the U.S. While the carmaker recently announced it had developed new battery technology that could triple the life of electric car batteries as well as a three-row electric SUV, it still intends to maintain a balanced mix of hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and pure EVs for the foreseeable future.

Fully electric luxury cars are selling the worst. According to Cox Automotive’s data, Genesis, the Korean luxury brand, has almost a year’s supply of its nearly $82,000 G80 sedan sitting on dealership lots. Only 18 had been sold in the 30 days leading up to June 29th, and 210 were still in stock nationwide.

Audi’s Q4 e-tron and Q8 e-tron and the GMC Hummer EV SUV are also sitting on lots in quantities representing inventories that will likely last well over 100 days. 

All these cars sell at prices that make them ineligible for federal tax credits. There are also plenty of imported models, such as the Kia EV6, Hyundai Ioniq 5, and Nissan Ariya that also do not qualify for tax credits. 

Ford’s once well-selling Mustang Mach-E now has a 117-day supply. "

Edited September 6, 2023 by Ecocharger

[TailingsPond + 502]

10 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Within the next decade governments will awaken to the data and pull back...that is a much more precise forecast than your masters have provided.

If your "climate awakening" doesn't happen real soon the transition will be unstoppable.  Within a decade the transition will be essentially complete.  Contracts signed, laws passed, infrastructure built... then we just have to wait for a few fossil humans to die off.

As you pointed out we already have the ability to make the cars.

[Ecocharger + 1,384]

14 hours ago, TailingsPond said:

If your "climate awakening" doesn't happen real soon the transition will be unstoppable.  Within a decade the transition will be essentially complete.  Contracts signed, laws passed, infrastructure built... then we just have to wait for a few fossil humans to die off.

As you pointed out we already have the ability to make the cars.

You have the ability to make a lot of cars, but not to sell them. Even Europe only has a measly 1.24% of its cars EV, the infrastructure is not and never will be in place to support a transition. The heavy duty vehicles do not yet exist in EV form in any practical way. Airplanes will remain fossil fuel.

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,550]

18 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

You have the ability to make a lot of cars, but not to sell them.

I'm not so sure about that, the below article crunches some numbers with some very Eye Popping results. It looks like its over very soon...

EPA is ignoring the glaring problem with dirty electric vehicles

asserted by the EPA in the proposed rule, the temperature effect of the rule in 2100 would be about 0.023°C. This is calculated applying the EPA’s own climate model under assumptions that exaggerate the future effects of reduced emissions of greenhouse gases.

Even this all-cost-no-benefit outcome is only one major problem. Another is the array of environmental and cost implications of obtaining the materials needed to produce EV batteries.

As a crude generalization, EV batteries weigh a half ton or more. Each contains roughly 30 pounds of lithium, 60 pounds of cobalt, 130 pounds of nickel, 190 pounds of graphite, 90 pounds of copper and about 400 pounds of steel, aluminum and plastics.

Mark P. Mills of the Manhattan Institute has done the attendant arithmetic on the amount of mining needed to produce these quantities for a single EV battery. By his estimate, each battery requires the extraction of 20,000 pounds of lithium brines, 60,000 pounds of cobalt ore, 10,000 pounds of nickel ore, 2,000 pounds of graphite ore and 12,000 pounds of copper ore.

This tally excludes three to seven tons of what is known as the “overburden” for each ton of ore — that is, “the materials first dug up to get to the ore.” It also excludes the environmental burden involved in extracting and refining materials to produce the steel, aluminum and other less uncommon materials that go into EV batteries.

 

For lithium, the largest reserves are located in Bolivia, Argentina, Chile, the U.S., Australia and China. It is obvious that a supply crunch and rising prices are inevitable. “Earth has approximately 88 million tonnes of lithium,” Popular Mechanics recently noted, “but only one-quarter is economically viable to mine as reserves.”

https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/4138134-epa-is-ignoring-the-glaring-problem-with-danged-dirty-electric-vehicles/

 

 

Edited September 6, 2023 by Eyes Wide Open

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

On 8/29/2023 at 9:05 PM, Ecocharger said:

I guess you failed to read your own article, as usual. These are not actual bans, just proposals to be implemented in the distant future. I wager that these bans will never happen.

And they are not proposed bans on fossil fuel vehicles, just sales.

"As with the other states moving ahead with this plan, only new vehicle sales will be affected: there is no plan to remove gas or diesel-powered used vehicles from the roads."

Actually it is law in California, Connecticut, Maryland, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon and Washington, not a proposal.

The average age of a used vehicle in the US is 12 years. They don't last forever. 

Furthermore 8 of those states have adopted the Advanced Clean Trucks Act for medium and heavy duty trucks as law and 6 more are working on making it law:

In July of 2020, 15 states plus the District of Columbia agreed to form the largest-ever national partnership to address pollution from medium- and heavy-duty vehicles. Through a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), states committed to achieve 100% sales of electric trucks by 2050, with an interim target of 30% zero-emission vehicle sales by 2030.

Some state governments have already started working on formalizing these commitments through legislative and administrative action, including by proposal or adopting a version of the Advanced Clean Trucks (ACT) rule. Learn more about where states currently stand in their clean truck policies, and find groups working within each state to deliver #ElectricTrucksNow.

STATES THAT HAVE SIGNED THE 100% ZERO-EMISSION TRUCK MOU AND FULLY ADOPTED THE ADVANCED CLEAN TRUCKS RULE:

CALIFORNIA

In June 2020, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) unanimously adopted the world’s first zero-emission commercial truck requirement, the Advanced Clean Trucks rule.

Resources:

• Fact Sheet: Accelerating Zero-Emission Truck Markets, by CARB

• State Campaign Site: California Electric Trucks Now

 

OREGON

In November 2021, the State of Oregon Department of Environmental Quality formally adopted the Advanced Clean Truck (ACT) rule and the Heavy-Duty Omnibus (HDO) rule.

Resources:

• State campaign page: Clean Air Healthy Communities

• Report: Oregon Clean Trucks Program: An Analysis of the Impacts of Zero-Emission Medium- and Heavy-Duty Trucks on the Environment, Public Health, Industry, and the Economy, by MJ Bradley and Associates

WASHINGTON

In March, 2020, Gov. Jay Inslee signed the Motor Vehicle Emission Standards – Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEV) bill, which, directed the Department of Ecology to adopt California vehicle emission standards, including Zero-emission standards for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (the Advanced Clean Trucks rule).

In November 2021, the Department formally adopted the ZEV program, including the ACT rule.

Resources:

• Report: Washington Clean Trucks Program: An Analysis of the Impacts of Zero-Emission Medium- and Heavy-Duty Trucks on the Environment, Public Health, Industry, and the Economy, by MJ Bradley and Associates

NEW JERSEY

In April 2021, the NJ Department of Environmental Protection proposed an Advanced Clean Trucks program along with a Fleet Reporting Requirement. In December 2021, the DEP formally adopted the ACT.

Resources:

• Coalition for Healthy Ports press release on ACT adoption

MASSACHUSETTS

On December 30, 2021, the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection (MassDEP) announced that emergency regulations have been filed with the Secretary of the Commonwealth’s office to immediately adopt California’s Advanced Clean Trucks regulation. The filing of the emergency regulations commences the start of a public comment period and the coordination of a public hearing in February 2022.

NEW YORK

In September 2021, the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation announced plans to revise the existing low emission vehicle (LEV) program to incorporate California’s Advanced Clean Truck (ACT) medium- and heavy-duty zero emission vehicle (ZEV) standards. On December 30, 2021, the DEC officially adopted the ACT.

Resources:

• Report: New York Clean Trucks Program: An Analysis of the Impacts of Zero-Emission Medium- and Heavy-Duty Trucks on the Environment, Public Health, Industry, and the Economy, by MJ Bradley and Associates

VERMONT

In November 2022, the Legislative Committee on Administrative Rules for Vermont officially approved adoption of both the Advanced Clean Trucks (ACT) rule and California’s Advanced Clean Cars 2 (ACC2) rules.

Edited September 6, 2023 by Jay McKinsey