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E-car Sales Collapse

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(edited)

7 hours ago, TailingsPond said:

To answer that question read the article.

Lmao..The wind farm cost more to maintain than it yields in profit. Ponds stick with koolaid stands.

Edited by Eyes Wide Open
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(edited)

16 hours ago, TailingsPond said:

To answer that question read the article.

..

Edited by Eyes Wide Open

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On 11/12/2023 at 10:06 PM, Ron Wagner said:

 

 

I don't think it's an either/or debate.  A lot of hybrids now are rechargeable.  Toyota is introducing a refuel-able hydrogen fuel cell production car this year.  This is the beginning of a new production fuel system that will demonstrate that a hydrogen fuel system can work.   Toyota also has a 3 cylinder and 8 cylinder engine that can be powered by hydrogen.  If you look at many of the gas ICE vehicles popular today, many have prices the run well over $50,000.  A loaded Sliverado runs $70,000, $80,000 or more.   The base 2024 prius starts at $29,000.  EV's have potential for fleet use, because of all of the maintenance not needed (oil changes, spark plugs, air filters, a million other parts, etc.).  They also have torque that will "smoke" most ICE power trains.  There are new developments with design and materials coming out every 6 months. The race has just begun.  

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On 11/12/2023 at 10:03 PM, Ron Wagner said:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZlsZwcIgpc

Why EVs Are Piling Up At Dealerships In The U.S.

and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ocNfkVA28mg

10 MAJOR PROBLEMS With Electric Cars You Must Know Before Buying One

So EV's are piling up while sales are going up.. kudos to the manufacturers I guess.

'In the second quarter of 2023, U.S. consumers bought nearly 300,000 new battery-electric vehicles 
(BEVs), marking a new record. This figure represents a more than 48% increase compared to the 
previous year and exceeds the total number of EVs sold in all of 2019. The third quarter brought 
another record, with quarterly EV sales surpassing 300,000 for the first time.  (nasdaq.com)'

As for the 10 MAJOR problems with EV's, most of the issues apply to ICE vehicles also:  In a cold climate, an ICE vehicle will get poorer mileage and have less range,  unreliable chargers: some major manufacturers are adopting the Tesla charging system and I run into unreliable pumps and lines at gas stations too,  the EV tire issue is correct, but it's hard to believe that is going to surpass all the other maintenance for an ICE,  battery pack replacement costs over 10K, well, not any more, you can get EV replacements from GreenTec: a used Tesla Model S pack was listed for $1400 with 25K miles on it.  That's certainly about the same as a used engine or a transmission for an ICE.   EV maintenance is expensive, except for all the parts and fluids you will never need.  There are some differences in electronics, but ICE cares are full of expensive elelctronics too: infotainment screens, backup cameras, etc.  And then there's the relative cost of fuel: a Mustang EV refuels for about $9.00, a Mustang 5 litre ICE for about $45 or $50.  

Yes, the EV's are expensive, but so are most ICE cars, with all the options buyers are looking for.  It's certainly hard to get a Silverado off the lot for less than $60K, and loaded, it's about $90K.   Tahoes, Suburbans, Explorers, Aspens... they aren't going for 30K . . . 

It's not an either/or debate.   EV's will have many advantages in populated Metro areas, ICE will have longevity in rural areas.  But new developments in transportation and energy appear every 3 to 6 months, and most of it doesn't apply to ICE technology.  The competition has started.  And the way a properly powered EV can blow the doors off of an ICE in the quarter mile, love for the ICE is going to start to wane.  And now hydrogen fuel is already in the mix.  Competition will pick the winners.
 

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On 11/12/2023 at 9:48 PM, Jay McKinsey said:

They have been selling the Mirai for almost a decade. Only a few thousand are sold each year.

hydrogen-fuel-cell-car-sales-in-the-us-q3-2023.png

 

But they are in the market, with a million test drive miles, and more efficient than ICE.   Just more competition that ICE and Big Oil have to watch over their shoulders.  Probably not long before Exxon is building fuel cells and stocking hydrogen.   

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On 10/19/2023 at 2:18 AM, Ecocharger said:

Cuts? All time production highs. Fueled by hot demand.

Opec hasn't been cranking out all time production highs. 

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7 minutes ago, lexington green said:

But they are in the market, with a million test drive miles, and more efficient than ICE.   Just more competition that ICE and Big Oil have to watch over their shoulders.  Probably not long before Exxon is building fuel cells and stocking hydrogen.   

No, hydrogen cars are a dead end. If hydrogen is used for transport it will be as ammonia and used in commercial vehicles.

Edited by Jay McKinsey

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18 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

No, hydrogen cars are a dead end. If hydrogen is used for transport it will be as ammonia and used in commercial vehicles.

Fuel Cells have been in use since the 1960's and are twice as efficient as any hydrocarb ICE.  That's not a dead end.  It is certainly better proven than ammonia combustion, which requires 2 fuels to operate.   But ammonia is not out of the running either.  It has already been used for power generation in Japan.  NH3 also has a lot of interest from global shipping companies.  From combustion, ammonia has potential toxic emission problems.   However, the first ship powered from ammonia will appear next year.  But the ammonia will power fuel cells on the ship.  Ammonia has lower energy density than diesel.  But the fuel cell is twice as efficient.  When ammonia is burned the fuel and storage tanks have to be twice as large,  But the fuel is getting a lot of attention, and probably a lot about it's combustion technology will change in 5 years.

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12 minutes ago, lexington green said:

Fuel Cells have been in use since the 1960's and are twice as efficient as any hydrocarb ICE.  That's not a dead end.  It is certainly better proven than ammonia combustion, which requires 2 fuels to operate.   But ammonia is not out of the running either.  It has already been used for power generation in Japan.  NH3 also has a lot of interest from global shipping companies.  From combustion, ammonia has potential toxic emission problems.   However, the first ship powered from ammonia will appear next year.  But the ammonia will power fuel cells on the ship.  Ammonia has lower energy density than diesel.  But the fuel cell is twice as efficient.  When ammonia is burned the fuel and storage tanks have to be twice as large,  But the fuel is getting a lot of attention, and probably a lot about it's combustion technology will change in 5 years.

When hydrogen is used the fuel tanks have to be ginormous! And the cost of hydrogen transport and fueling stations is ludicrous. That is why it is a dead end. Combustion of ammonia or hydrogen won't pass clean air laws, it will have to use a fuel cell.

Yes, the hydrogen needs to be extracted from the NH3 in the vehicle. That is what Amogy is doing https://amogy.co/.

Edited by Jay McKinsey

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12 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

When hydrogen is used the fuel tanks have to be ginormous! And the cost of hydrogen transport and fueling stations is ludicrous. That is why it is a dead end. Combustion of ammonia or hydrogen won't pass clean air laws, it will have to use a fuel cell.

In the Toyota Mirai, the fuel tanks combined are '..'122 litres (27 imp gal; 32 US gal) combined, and store hydrogen at 70 MPa (10,000 psi).'  On this 32 gallon volume, it has a 400 mile range (due to the fuel cell).  That's a large tank for the size of the car, but not a major problem.  Ammonia is one way to store hydrogen, but even that takes a lot of space.  Cryo storage is another.  NASA has written the book on in terms of storage vessel size for pressure or cryo (they've done the largest facilities. . Natural gas transport already uses cryo.  There's research going into ammonia and hydrogen storage, including use of something called metal or chemical hydrides that has some promise in terms of capacity.  Hydrogen production and storage have an energy cost, but so does everything else.

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6 hours ago, lexington green said:

In the Toyota Mirai, the fuel tanks combined are '..'122 litres (27 imp gal; 32 US gal) combined, and store hydrogen at 70 MPa (10,000 psi).'  On this 32 gallon volume, it has a 400 mile range (due to the fuel cell).  That's a large tank for the size of the car, but not a major problem.  Ammonia is one way to store hydrogen, but even that takes a lot of space.  Cryo storage is another.  NASA has written the book on in terms of storage vessel size for pressure or cryo (they've done the largest facilities. . Natural gas transport already uses cryo.  There's research going into ammonia and hydrogen storage, including use of something called metal or chemical hydrides that has some promise in terms of capacity.  Hydrogen production and storage have an energy cost, but so does everything else.

It is a problem for the Mirai. The Model 3 is a slightly smaller car by exterior dimensions but has much more interior and storage volume. Many reviews call the Mirai cramped and slow. It even weighs more than a Model 3.

Looks like it will be another year where US (California) FCEV sales are less than their record year of 2021 when they sold 3300:

Hydrogen Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Sales

There were 57 Toyota Mirai and 23 Hyundai Nexo sold in the United States in October 2023.

Cumulatively, 2,857 FCEVs have been sold in 2023. In total, 17,846 FCEVs have been sold since 2014.

Hydrogen storage, transport and delivery is ludicrously expensive.

These are all from hydrogeninsight.com

The California-based trade body Hydrogen Fuel Cell Partnership states on its website that H2 filling stations cost an “estimated” $2m to build, a sum that might be difficult to ever recoup, given that only 17,284 fuel-cell cars have ever been sold or leased in the state.

 

ANALYSIS | It is now almost 14 times more expensive to drive a Toyota hydrogen car in California than a comparable Tesla EV

The state’s largest H2 fuel supplier has hiked its pump price to $36 per kg across all 37 of its filling stations

  •  
  •  
  • 5 September 2023 10:30 GMT
  • It is currently almost 14 times more expensive to drive a Toyota Mirai in California than a comparable Tesla battery-electric car after a massive hydrogen fuel price hike, according to calculations by Hydrogen Insight.
 
 

California’s largest H2 fuel retailer, True Zero, which operates 37 of the 53 hydrogen filling stations in the state, recently hiked the price of H2 at all its pumps to $36/kg, up from around $30/kg.

As recently as April 2021, it was charging just $13.14 per kilo.

At the new price, filling a Toyota Mirai’s 5.6kg tank would cost $201.60 — around $0.50 per mile, according to the Japanese auto maker’s claimed driving range of 400 miles (647km).

By way of comparison, fully charging a 60kWh Tesla Model 3 in California would cost $11.94, based on the latest average electricity prices. With an official range of 333 miles on a full battery, it therefore costs $0.036 per mile — almost 14 times cheaper than the Mirai, which is by far the most common fuel-cell car in the state.

And for Tesla owners with cheap overnight electricity rates at home, it would work out even cheaper.

 

Shell scraps plan to build 48 new hydrogen filling stations in California, for which it had been awarded $40.6m grant

Oil giant also recently closed five of its existing H2 stations in the state

“We can confirm that Shell has discontinued its plan to build and operate additional light-duty vehicle fueling stations in California,” a company spokesperson tells Hydrogen Insight.

The California-based trade body Hydrogen Fuel Cell Partnership states on its website that H2 filling stations cost an “estimated” $2m to build, a sum that might be difficult to ever recoup, given that only 17,284 fuel-cell cars have ever been sold or leased in the state.

Edited by Jay McKinsey

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On 11/16/2023 at 4:45 AM, lexington green said:

So EV's are piling up while sales are going up.. kudos to the manufacturers I guess.

'In the second quarter of 2023, U.S. consumers bought nearly 300,000 new battery-electric vehicles 
(BEVs), marking a new record. This figure represents a more than 48% increase compared to the 
previous year and exceeds the total number of EVs sold in all of 2019. The third quarter brought 
another record, with quarterly EV sales surpassing 300,000 for the first time.  (nasdaq.com)'

As for the 10 MAJOR problems with EV's, most of the issues apply to ICE vehicles also:  In a cold climate, an ICE vehicle will get poorer mileage and have less range,  unreliable chargers: some major manufacturers are adopting the Tesla charging system and I run into unreliable pumps and lines at gas stations too,  the EV tire issue is correct, but it's hard to believe that is going to surpass all the other maintenance for an ICE,  battery pack replacement costs over 10K, well, not any more, you can get EV replacements from GreenTec: a used Tesla Model S pack was listed for $1400 with 25K miles on it.  That's certainly about the same as a used engine or a transmission for an ICE.   EV maintenance is expensive, except for all the parts and fluids you will never need.  There are some differences in electronics, but ICE cares are full of expensive elelctronics too: infotainment screens, backup cameras, etc.  And then there's the relative cost of fuel: a Mustang EV refuels for about $9.00, a Mustang 5 litre ICE for about $45 or $50.  

Yes, the EV's are expensive, but so are most ICE cars, with all the options buyers are looking for.  It's certainly hard to get a Silverado off the lot for less than $60K, and loaded, it's about $90K.   Tahoes, Suburbans, Explorers, Aspens... they aren't going for 30K . . . 

It's not an either/or debate.   EV's will have many advantages in populated Metro areas, ICE will have longevity in rural areas.  But new developments in transportation and energy appear every 3 to 6 months, and most of it doesn't apply to ICE technology.  The competition has started.  And the way a properly powered EV can blow the doors off of an ICE in the quarter mile, love for the ICE is going to start to wane.  And now hydrogen fuel is already in the mix.  Competition will pick the winners.
 

Are you aware that there are more natural gas vehicles than there are electric vehicles in the world, and that they are far larger and are often large trucks that carry goods? That there are natural gas powered ships that sail the seas and are far cleaner than diesel run ships. 

Natural gas use is far more practical than the current technology in wind and solar. It should be powering our ICE vehicles since it is cleaner than diesel or gasoline and can run any ICE engine with minor alterations and a different fuel tank. 

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On 11/16/2023 at 5:35 AM, lexington green said:

Fuel Cells have been in use since the 1960's and are twice as efficient as any hydrocarb ICE.  That's not a dead end.  It is certainly better proven than ammonia combustion, which requires 2 fuels to operate.   But ammonia is not out of the running either.  It has already been used for power generation in Japan.  NH3 also has a lot of interest from global shipping companies.  From combustion, ammonia has potential toxic emission problems.   However, the first ship powered from ammonia will appear next year.  But the ammonia will power fuel cells on the ship.  Ammonia has lower energy density than diesel.  But the fuel cell is twice as efficient.  When ammonia is burned the fuel and storage tanks have to be twice as large,  But the fuel is getting a lot of attention, and probably a lot about it's combustion technology will change in 5 years.

Fuel cells can run off of natural gas which is the logical fuel choice. Hydrogen from wind and solar  can be blended with natural gas. 

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(edited)

On 11/16/2023 at 3:49 AM, lexington green said:

 

I don't think it's an either/or debate.  A lot of hybrids now are rechargeable.  Toyota is introducing a refuel-able hydrogen fuel cell production car this year.  This is the beginning of a new production fuel system that will demonstrate that a hydrogen fuel system can work.   Toyota also has a 3 cylinder and 8 cylinder engine that can be powered by hydrogen.  If you look at many of the gas ICE vehicles popular today, many have prices the run well over $50,000.  A loaded Sliverado runs $70,000, $80,000 or more.   The base 2024 prius starts at $29,000.  EV's have potential for fleet use, because of all of the maintenance not needed (oil changes, spark plugs, air filters, a million other parts, etc.).  They also have torque that will "smoke" most ICE power trains.  There are new developments with design and materials coming out every 6 months. The race has just begun.  

Natural gas ICE fueled cars and trucks are the best answer IMHO. 

https://ngvamerica.org/vehicles/  23 million on the road worldwide. 

Vehicles for every route.

Off- and on-road, marine, rail and more are running on natural gas

Edited by Ron Wagner

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4 hours ago, Ron Wagner said:

Are you aware that there are more natural gas vehicles than there are electric vehicles in the world, and that they are far larger and are often large trucks that carry goods? That there are natural gas powered ships that sail the seas and are far cleaner than diesel run ships. 

Natural gas use is far more practical than the current technology in wind and solar. It should be powering our ICE vehicles since it is cleaner than diesel or gasoline and can run any ICE engine with minor alterations and a different fuel tank. 

No he is not aware of it because it isn't true. Over 16 million EVs were sold in just 2022 through the first half of 2023:

Canalys’ latest research shows worldwide sales of electric vehicles (EVs*) grew by 49% to 6.2 million units in H1 2023. EVs constitute 16% of the global light vehicle market, marking a significant increase of 12.4% from the first half of 2022.  

Electric car markets are seeing exponential growth as sales exceeded 10 million in 2022. A total of 14% of all new cars sold were electric in 2022, up from around 9% in 2021

Edited by Jay McKinsey

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(edited)

6 hours ago, Ron Wagner said:

Are you aware that there are more natural gas vehicles than there are electric vehicles in the world,

Actually Ron there arent

Globally both CNG and EV's have 26 million vehicles 

"There are currently over 26 million natural gas vehicles and over 31,000 refuelling stations across the world, with over 50% of these vehicles in China, Iran, and India [13]."

"26 million electric cars roaming global roads in 2022, "

To be fair now we are nearly in 2024 those EV numbers will be well ahead of CNG now.

Ron the conversion cost to CNG is between $6K-$12K they have less trunk space are less fuel efficient and only 1% of service stations have NG to refuel

What Ever Happened to Natural Gas-Powered Cars? - Kelley Blue Book (kbb.com)

This is probably why you dont drive one!

Edited by Rob Plant
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On 11/20/2023 at 4:20 AM, Rob Plant said:

Actually Ron there arent

Globally both CNG and EV's have 26 million vehicles 

"There are currently over 26 million natural gas vehicles and over 31,000 refuelling stations across the world, with over 50% of these vehicles in China, Iran, and India [13]."

"26 million electric cars roaming global roads in 2022, "

To be fair now we are nearly in 2024 those EV numbers will be well ahead of CNG now.

Ron the conversion cost to CNG is between $6K-$12K they have less trunk space are less fuel efficient and only 1% of service stations have NG to refuel

What Ever Happened to Natural Gas-Powered Cars? - Kelley Blue Book (kbb.com)

This is probably why you dont drive one!

Many of the "electric" cars are actually hybrids, which should be regarded as fossil fuel vehicles.

Hybrids have been shown to become increasingly dependent on fossil fuels as the curve proceeds with electrification. 

"For PHEVs owned by private individuals, the real-world fuel consumption is on average three times higher than the official WLTP values, while for company car PHEVs the fuel consumption is on average five times higher. Moreover, despite an increasing electric range and more public charging infrastructure, the deviation between real-world and official fuel consumption of PHEVs in Europe is observed to be GROWING."

So just as I claimed above, as we get more range to electric vehicles and increased public recharging, the consumption of fossil fuels by PHEVs actually increases relative to the expected projection. That is the reality.

Edited by Ecocharger

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(edited)

3 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

Many of the "electric" cars are actually hybrids, which should be regarded as fossil fuel vehicles.

Hybrids have been shown to become increasingly dependent on fossil fuels as the curve proceeds with electrification. 

"For PHEVs owned by private individuals, the real-world fuel consumption is on average three times higher than the official WLTP values, while for company car PHEVs the fuel consumption is on average five times higher. Moreover, despite an increasing electric range and more public charging infrastructure, the deviation between real-world and official fuel consumption of PHEVs in Europe is observed to be GROWING."

So just as I claimed above, as we get more range to electric vehicles and increased public recharging, the consumption of fossil fuels by PHEVs actually increases relative to the expected projection. That is the reality.

Except that the report conclusion directly contradicts you by saying that longer electric range and more public charging is needed to increase electric share in PHEV and decrease fuel consumption. 

p.14:

image.png.a761fc921dda1f305ae12185305aa982.png

image.png.8c2598118ae73f4cfc19f50680754c2a.png

"There are many potential policy tools available to increase the electric drive share of PHEVs. ...» Adopt minimum electric driving range requirements, similar to California’s range requirements for zero-emission vehicle crediting in its Advanced Clean Cars II regulation » --- » Establish a higher utility factor corresponding to the purchase of PHEV by drivers with demonstrated home chargers or manufacturer assistance with charging access " p.16

Edited by Jay McKinsey
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On 11/20/2023 at 3:20 AM, Rob Plant said:

Actually Ron there arent

Globally both CNG and EV's have 26 million vehicles 

"There are currently over 26 million natural gas vehicles and over 31,000 refuelling stations across the world, with over 50% of these vehicles in China, Iran, and India [13]."

"26 million electric cars roaming global roads in 2022, "

To be fair now we are nearly in 2024 those EV numbers will be well ahead of CNG now.

Ron the conversion cost to CNG is between $6K-$12K they have less trunk space are less fuel efficient and only 1% of service stations have NG to refuel

What Ever Happened to Natural Gas-Powered Cars? - Kelley Blue Book (kbb.com)

This is probably why you dont drive one!

True, but only because of our stupid government mistakes. You could be filling your tank from your own natural gas line daily. Just like you do with an electric vehicle or anywhere else where it is supplied. Of course you don't know anything about the subject. The quantity of natural gas fuel for vehicles far exceeds any power used by puny electric cars. Trucks, equipment, ships, etc. It is also far superior for heating. 

Get your heads out of the sand and start looking at things objectively. I have provided all the information needed on this site over and over. Do some research. Our government funded research into making a low cost pump to use at home years ago. Texas A&M headed the research. The results were never even released. It is a simple task and China has them available. 

You should be smart enough to realize that CNG tanks are far lighter than batteries and that cars can be designed to  easily make room for the tanks, just as trucks are. 

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(edited)

1 hour ago, Ron Wagner said:

True, but only because of our stupid government mistakes. You could be filling your tank from your own natural gas line daily. Just like you do with an electric vehicle or anywhere else where it is supplied. Of course you don't know anything about the subject. The quantity of natural gas fuel for vehicles far exceeds any power used by puny electric cars. Trucks, equipment, ships, etc. It is also far superior for heating. 

Get your heads out of the sand and start looking at things objectively. I have provided all the information needed on this site over and over. Do some research. Our government funded research into making a low cost pump to use at home years ago. Texas A&M headed the research. The results were never even released. It is a simple task and China has them available. 

You should be smart enough to realize that CNG tanks are far lighter than batteries and that cars can be designed to  easily make room for the tanks, just as trucks are. 

The results were never released means the effort to create a low cost pump was a failure.

CNG has almost the same volumetric energy density as hydrogen but is heavier. So no, CNG tanks work for trucks but not cars.

image.thumb.png.eb6bc7cf3c022a8a83cd09d432605237.png

 
Edited by Jay McKinsey
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1 hour ago, Ron Wagner said:

True, but only because of our stupid government mistakes. You could be filling your tank from your own natural gas line daily.

How much did trump advance natural gas usage?  He had his chance.

Refilling a vehicle from a household level natural gas line would probably be difficult.  The pressure is pretty low at the home consumer level.

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1 minute ago, TailingsPond said:

How much did trump advance natural gas usage?  He had his chance.

Refilling a vehicle from a household level natural gas line would probably be difficult.  The pressure is pretty low at the home consumer level.

Yeah it has to be compressed. A home compressor only costs $7 grand and takes 5 hours to fill.

CNG Pump 2 GGE/Hr with Fast Fill Option (Taking orders now)
The CNGPUMP Fueling Station is designed and built for the USA market. This Long Life (2gge per hour) design can fuel a vehicle in 4-6 hours (dedicated natural gas line to the meter required). The compressor station and fueling hose mount outside the garage wall and is housed in a weather proof enclosure, weather proof gauges allow easy monitoring of the fueling status. Inside the garage is the control panel that is virtually automatic from start-up to                                                                    shutdown.

$6995 +  $360 Shipping
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6,995.00    
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(edited)

On 11/16/2023 at 3:49 AM, lexington green said:

 

I don't think it's an either/or debate.  A lot of hybrids now are rechargeable.  Toyota is introducing a refuel-able hydrogen fuel cell production car this year.  This is the beginning of a new production fuel system that will demonstrate that a hydrogen fuel system can work.   Toyota also has a 3 cylinder and 8 cylinder engine that can be powered by hydrogen.  If you look at many of the gas ICE vehicles popular today, many have prices the run well over $50,000.  A loaded Sliverado runs $70,000, $80,000 or more.   The base 2024 prius starts at $29,000.  EV's have potential for fleet use, because of all of the maintenance not needed (oil changes, spark plugs, air filters, a million other parts, etc.).  They also have torque that will "smoke" most ICE power trains.  There are new developments with design and materials coming out every 6 months. The race has just begun.  

I have read that the rental companies are not able to get proper maintenance for their EV fleets and that the prices do not make it profitable to invest in stocking them. That the maintenance is too expensive for them. 

Edited by Ron Wagner
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On 11/25/2023 at 11:10 PM, TailingsPond said:

How much did trump advance natural gas usage?  He had his chance.

Refilling a vehicle from a household level natural gas line would probably be difficult.  The pressure is pretty low at the home consumer level.

And potentially hazardous!

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