Oil Price in good shape but correction can happen

Based on commodity econometrics and geopolitics optimization oil price is headed much higher. However some correction can happen and that will be ideal to get fully invested in oil.  Iran will try and fail  to illegally export oil. China is on the verge of surrendering in trade war.  They are acting the same way they behaved in Doklam dispute with India.  Big words and then sudden surrender.  Commodities will take a sharp upturn as China finally declares enough is enough - white flag for survival.  They need 25 million jobs for rural Chinese population.  That entirely depends on export to US and Europe. As usual they will surrender and then continue covert war through inciting African and Central American countries trapping them into debt.

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Still seems unlikely to me that Brent will go above $80 - and stay above $80 any thime soon.  Recently, any time oil has headed toward $80, prices dropped again.  Barring a significant black swan event or craziness such as Iran trying to close the Strait of Hormuz, the markets seem unwilling to let oil prices rise above $80.

Saudi Arabia wants oil prices between $70 and $80.  Trump seems ok with $65 to $70.  Russia has budgetted for $40 oil for 3 years, from 2017 to 2019.  Petronas is budgeting for $66 oil next year.

Any increase above $80 would seem to trigger a political and market reaction to bring down oil prices.  The market seems to have already factored in the impending loss of Iranian oil on global supply.

Related, one of my earlier comments:

 

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