Petrol versus EV

India has seen a huge surge in two wheelers users in last 5 years. The government has begun thinking in terms of rapid electrification of India two-wheeler fleet. 
A time frame of five to seven years for the full transition is now being talked about. Savings to the tune of Rs 1.20 lakh crore (120 billion rupees) in crude oil imports is being bandied around in government circles.
Refineries in India are taking into account while doing strategic planning. 

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Can it happen in that timeframe, realistically? I'm asking because lots of governments have very ambitious electrification targets but they don't really sound realistic for the most part.

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14 minutes ago, Marina Schwarz said:

Can it happen in that timeframe, realistically? I'm asking because lots of governments have very ambitious electrification targets but they don't really sound realistic for the most part.

Sure it can.  Building electric bicycles and electric motorcycles is (relatively) easy to do, especially bicycles. What you are adding is a hub motor and a battery pack, plus a throttle and a charge controller, which can be separate and plug-in.  They draw very little power to recharge, so you don't worry about grid issues.  As the amount of power for each unit is quite small, they remain simple enough to fabricate.  My electric bicycle only has 27 little cells in the pack, yet can run at 45 mph.  Building bicycles with lower power than that, meaning less speed, gets even cheaper.  For a poor country it is a classic solution.  And for a country with a top-down bureaucracy, I anticipate that it would be easy enough to Order - simply outlaw the importation of gasoline scooters. 

The larger benefit would be in removal of air pollution. Those small scooter motors are notorious polluters. 

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8 hours ago, Marina Schwarz said:

Can it happen in that timeframe, realistically? I'm asking because lots of governments have very ambitious electrification targets but they don't really sound realistic for the most part.

The only problem with that in India is I think its called rolling blackouts. In most parts of the country they dont have power half the time .....

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/picturegalleries/worldnews/9442080/Huge-power-cut-in-India-600-million-without-electricity-in-biggest-ever-blackout.html

The situation hasnt changed much in India since that event. There are rolling power outages almost on a daily basis across India.

 

 

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On 9/12/2018 at 5:19 PM, ceo_energemsier said:

The only problem with that in India is I think its called rolling blackouts. In most parts of the country they dont have power half the time .....

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/picturegalleries/worldnews/9442080/Huge-power-cut-in-India-600-million-without-electricity-in-biggest-ever-blackout.html

The situation hasnt changed much in India since that event. There are rolling power outages almost on a daily basis across India.

I would say the answer to this is, "It's technically feasible, but as with everything else, India will fail at it."

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2 hours ago, mthebold said:

I would say the answer to this is, "It's technically feasible, but as with everything else, India will fail at it."

A bit harsh on our Indian friends.  No need to kick a man................

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1 hour ago, Dan Warnick said:

A bit harsh on our Indian friends.  No need to kick a man................ 

When I fail, I admit it, learn from it, and do better the next time.  The first step is admitting you have a problem. 

Objectively speaking, India has a track record of not lifting itself out of poverty, not developing high technology, and not achieving stated economic goals.  Until they, as a culture, do some introspection and make significant changes, my guess is that string of failures will continue.  That's not a malicious statement; it's the level of objectivity necessary to find a root cause. 

Anyone who takes criticism personally is missing the point. 

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5 minutes ago, mthebold said:

When I fail, I admit it, learn from it, and do better the next time.  The first step is admitting you have a problem. 

Objectively speaking, India has a track record of not lifting itself out of poverty, not developing high technology, and not achieving stated economic goals.  Until they, as a culture, do some introspection and make significant changes, my guess is that string of failures will continue.  That's not a malicious statement; it's the level of objectivity necessary to find a root cause. 

Anyone who takes criticism personally is missing the point. 

Yeah, I get it.  I lived there for a year and our son was even born while we were there, I get it.  The fact that they get up every morning and keep trying is amazing.  And I'm talking about the executives!  I agree with all of your points above, too.  They can be defensive and even a tad delusional; I think you'd have to develop those defense mechanisms to deal with the reality on the ground every day.  One of the toughest questions I used to get was "which one do you think is better: India or China?"  Talk about delusional.  In all honesty, I think they get it, too.  When I say "No need to kick a man....." I mean it as that is how it must feel to them to see it in a casual forum.  Not a personal dig at you and I absolutely know you didn't mean it that way, it just seemed a bit harsh to read.  Having said all of that, your experiences will have been unique, and they are quite capable of standing up for themselves if they take offense.  Sorry if I've made an issue out of nothing.

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2 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

Yeah, I get it.  I lived there for a year and our son was even born while we were there, I get it.  The fact that they get up every morning and keep trying is amazing.  And I'm talking about the executives!  I agree with all of your points above, too.  They can be defensive and even a tad delusional; I think you'd have to develop those defense mechanisms to deal with the reality on the ground every day.  One of the toughest questions I used to get was "which one do you think is better: India or China?"  Talk about delusional.  In all honesty, I think they get it, too.  When I say "No need to kick a man....." I mean it as that is how it must feel to them to see it in a casual forum.  Not a personal dig at you and I absolutely know you didn't mean it that way, it just seemed a bit harsh to read.  Having said all of that, your experiences will have been unique, and they are quite capable of standing up for themselves if they take offense.  Sorry if I've made an issue out of nothing. 

I'm not seeing this as an "issue"; I just don't understand how the truth is considered kicking a person.  It is what it is.

 

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(edited)

All very well the indian govement telling the world they will convert their scooters to electric but none of them own one its the poor people of thier country that do and then comes the simple question who is going to pay for it? In India a scooter is an expensive item for those that buy it converting it is an expense they cannot afford I suggest unless the government has plans to pay for the scooter conversions, street power points and upgrade their very dodgy electricity system there is no hope it will happen.

Edited by jaycee

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4 minutes ago, mthebold said:

I'm not seeing this as an "issue"; I just don't understand how the truth is considered kicking a person.  It is what it is.

 

Ok.

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Solar powered charging stations could be a way to overcome the frequent power shortages.

 

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On 9/12/2018 at 8:53 PM, Jan van Eck said:

Sure it can.  Building electric bicycles and electric motorcycles is (relatively) easy to do, especially bicycles. What you are adding is a hub motor and a battery pack, plus a throttle and a charge controller, which can be separate and plug-in.  They draw very little power to recharge, so you don't worry about grid issues.  As the amount of power for each unit is quite small, they remain simple enough to fabricate.  My electric bicycle only has 27 little cells in the pack, yet can run at 45 mph.  Building bicycles with lower power than that, meaning less speed, gets even cheaper.  For a poor country it is a classic solution.  And for a country with a top-down bureaucracy, I anticipate that it would be easy enough to Order - simply outlaw the importation of gasoline scooters. 

The larger benefit would be in removal of air pollution. Those small scooter motors are notorious polluters. 

You might have to address this situation first:

image.png.8e1c17e3b999e859c11982be6e385acb.png

image.png.793adf9f6a59ae5d66827de87d6dd2f3.png

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Good luck with charging.

image.png.608320abd26bf2fde01558f7726b4e0a.png

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(edited)

Again it comes down to economics. The neighbours son want a moped, when asked why he doesn't want an electric bike (just as quick) it's not cool he wants something that's loud to impress the girls. Here in France he can afford it, he will pay considerably more to be "cool". For many people in the world a moped is a means of getting from A to B that's it and is a major expense. Being cool isn't going to be a major facture and the lowest cost wins out. Maybe with that money saved they can buy a solar system so not have to worry about black outs and charge their bikes.

Also having spent time in India and similar countries (economically) I can see a new industry been created converting those old moped and such over to electric. It's amazing what some people can do with a few tools and will power.

Edited by DA?
more to say
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(edited)

Here I go again. Natural gas can run the motor scooters with no problem. It has become the fuel of choice for the three wheel conveyances India uses. I would stick with electricity for the bikes. I want one myself but worry about safety for practical use in my area or all but rural areas. 

http://ngvindiasummit.com/

http://www.ngvglobal.com/blog/indias-natural-gas-fuelled-transport-sector-poised-growth-2018-0217

http://www.ngvglobal.com/blog/all-new-santro-cng-introduced-by-hyundai-india-1023 

Edited by ronwagn
added reference

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5 hours ago, ronwagn said:

Here I go again. Natural gas can run the motor scooters with no problem. It has become the fuel of choice for the three wheel conveyances India uses. I would stick with electricity for the bikes. I want one myself but worry about safety for practical use in my area or all but rural areas. 

http://ngvindiasummit.com/

http://www.ngvglobal.com/blog/indias-natural-gas-fuelled-transport-sector-poised-growth-2018-0217

http://www.ngvglobal.com/blog/all-new-santro-cng-introduced-by-hyundai-india-1023 

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/10/31/indias-1-5-million-electric-vehicles-why-youve-never-heard-of-them/

Electric seems to be starting to be the choice for three wheelers now.

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(edited)

14 hours ago, DA? said:

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/10/31/indias-1-5-million-electric-vehicles-why-youve-never-heard-of-them/

Electric seems to be starting to be the choice for three wheelers now.

Do you have a reference for that? Wikipedia mentions it deep in their auto-rickshaw article. They started being popular this year apparently. Will be watching how that works out. Unfortunately, they will probably be burning coal to produce the electricity. 

Edited by ronwagn

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On 10/19/2018 at 3:54 AM, DA? said:

Again it comes down to economics. The neighbours son want a moped, when asked why he doesn't want an electric bike (just as quick) it's not cool he wants something that's loud to impress the girls. Here in France he can afford it, he will pay considerably more to be "cool". For many people in the world a moped is a means of getting from A to B that's it and is a major expense. Being cool isn't going to be a major facture and the lowest cost wins out. Maybe with that money saved they can buy a solar system so not have to worry about black outs and charge their bikes.

Also having spent time in India and similar countries (economically) I can see a new industry been created converting those old moped and such over to electric. It's amazing what some people can do with a few tools and will power.

Is thievery a big problem with bikes and mopeds in Asia?

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2 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

Is thievery a big problem with bikes and mopeds in Asia?

??

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12 hours ago, ronwagn said:

Do you have a reference for that? Wikipedia mentions it deep in their auto-rickshaw article. They started being popular this year apparently. Will be watching how that works out. Unfortunately, they will probably be burning coal to produce the electricity. 

Think that as far back as I know comes from Yahoo Finance. India seems to be starting to move rapidly to solar and wind, so their grid should become cleaner.

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12 hours ago, ronwagn said:

Is thievery a big problem with bikes and mopeds in Asia?

Probably as everywhere, but makes no difference. Only problem I saw in India with mopeds were the dangerous roads, was going to buy one out there but glad I didn't especially after dealing with a chap that died after been hit by a truck.

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