Zohr Giant Gas Field Increases Production Six-Fold

They've yet to become self-sufficient in gas, I hear. In the longer term, who knows.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The real problem for Egypt is that it is totally dependent on the charity of the USA.  Right now Egypt receives some $3.5 billion in US foreign aid, and some chunk of that (or additional funds) are for keeping the military personnel content with paychecks.  Yet there is no reason to think that the Trump Administration is going to continue that indefinitely; the USA gets nothing for that aid money  (other than a marginally contented military dictator). the Trump fondness for authoritarian regimes has to be weighed against the costs of shovelling cash at them.  I don't see the USA continuing to pay Egypt's bills. 

Israel also gets about $3.5 billion from the USA, but that is more as a palliative or sop to the US Jewish vote, than for any  real support reason.  Between the two countries, there is $7 billion in funds that could be used for other Trump purposes.  While the Jews remain a power bloc in the USA, and Trump's own daughter has converted consequent to her marriage to Jared, there is nothing similar in the case of Egypt.  So chopping Egypt is an easy call, and chopping Israel to make it look even-handed is another (relatively) easy call, albeit at the risk of howls of protest from US Jews. 

Thus, for the dictators in Egypt to keep the army from revolting, some other source of ready cash has to be found.  Gas exports are tempting. I suspect the military would rather deprive Egyptians of some gas, by rationing, than not have cash coming in to pay the army.  On that basis, I anticipate the Egypt will be exporting to Europe soon enough, probably by means of a floating liquefaction plant.. 

  • Like 2
  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am pretty sure the Egyptian aide package started as part of the peace deal with Israel. At the time Israel occupied the Sinai. The average American probably doesn't give a fig about Egypt, but as you noted, Israel gets preferential treatment. Now foreign aide nuances are lost on the general public, and maybe POTUS. The Saudis spent, and still spend, real money putting in, and propping up, the current Egyptian leadership. So we are talking a bloc of nations that truly supports the current administration. And if the POTUS can't stop the reality that US government is harder on Putin than ever, I don't see him fighting to end Israeli support, upset his own evangelical base, and the Israeli's know the Egyptian support helps by, if not peace, active efforts against them from Egypt. 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I thought that Egypt already had a plant to liquefy the NG, even working with Israel.

The military aid given to these two countries is more like just giving it to the USA's arms exporters as that's were the money ends up mostly.  

  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On 9/17/2018 at 1:58 PM, Jan van Eck said:

The real problem for Egypt is that it is totally dependent on the charity of the USA.  Right now Egypt receives some $3.5 billion in US foreign aid, and some chunk of that (or additional funds) are for keeping the military personnel content with paychecks.  Yet there is no reason to think that the Trump Administration is going to continue that indefinitely; the USA gets nothing for that aid money  (other than a marginally contented military dictator). the Trump fondness for authoritarian regimes has to be weighed against the costs of shovelling cash at them.  I don't see the USA continuing to pay Egypt's bills. 

Israel also gets about $3.5 billion from the USA, but that is more as a palliative or sop to the US Jewish vote, than for any  real support reason.  Between the two countries, there is $7 billion in funds that could be used for other Trump purposes.  While the Jews remain a power bloc in the USA, and Trump's own daughter has converted consequent to her marriage to Jared, there is nothing similar in the case of Egypt.  So chopping Egypt is an easy call, and chopping Israel to make it look even-handed is another (relatively) easy call, albeit at the risk of howls of protest from US Jews

Thus, for the dictators in Egypt to keep the army from revolting, some other source of ready cash has to be found.  Gas exports are tempting. I suspect the military would rather deprive Egyptians of some gas, by rationing, than not have cash coming in to pay the army.  On that basis, I anticipate the Egypt will be exporting to Europe soon enough, probably by means of a floating liquefaction plant.. 

If my memory serves me correctly, 74% voted democrat in the 2016 elections so one has to question what value this voter block would have to Trump.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On 9/17/2018 at 7:58 AM, Jan van Eck said:

The real problem for Egypt is that it is totally dependent on the charity of the USA.  Right now Egypt receives some $3.5 billion in US foreign aid, and some chunk of that (or additional funds) are for keeping the military personnel content with paychecks.  Yet there is no reason to think that the Trump Administration is going to continue that indefinitely; the USA gets nothing for that aid money  (other than a marginally contented military dictator).

That aide is really indirect aide for Israel. Part of the deal for peace and acknowledgement for peace between Egypt and Israel, that got Sadat killed by his own. I wonder if MbS ever reads regional history? The Israeli lobby might quietly work to keep it in place. Does Israel want to risk Egypt falling into complete chaos? The safe thing for an Arab politician is to rally the masses against Zionists. The Saudis also put a lot of money into getting Sissi in power, and probably keeping him there as well. Egypt is part vassal state for them, and they could make up the US shortage, if it comes to pass.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On 11/14/2018 at 8:12 AM, NickW said:

If my memory serves me correctly, 74% voted democrat in the 2016 elections so one has to question what value this voter block would have to Trump.

He seems to have this idea that the US Jewish voting bloc is going to roll with him because his son-in-law and advisor is Jared, and because his daughter converted to Judaism.  I think that is delusional, personally.  Moving the embassy was part of that pattern of attempting to pull in Jewish votes to his camp.  All the other diplomats are sitting in Tel Aviv, so it has no logic, other than as a palliative to the voters. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

He seems to have this idea that the US Jewish voting bloc is going to roll with him because his son-in-law and advisor is Jared, and because his daughter converted to Judaism.  I think that is delusional, personally.  Moving the embassy was part of that pattern of attempting to pull in Jewish votes to his camp.  All the other diplomats are sitting in Tel Aviv, so it has no logic, other than as a palliative to the voters. 

I wondered if it was to try and provoke Iran into doing something rash. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On 12/14/2018 at 4:55 PM, mthebold said:

How does keeping Egypt stable benefit Israel?  I would think a completely destabilized nation would be less likely to invade a neighbor, if only because they lacked the ability. 

Wounded animals are more likely to bite than healthy ones. No one in the region can really attack Israel. A conventional force that tries to is asking to be obliterated. 

Egypt really hasn't been ambitious about projecting power in decades.  

An extreme example but Iraq was completely destabilized, and what mess that created in Syria. Destabilizing a country is not a path to peace.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Egypt doesn't have the necessary expertise to explore and develop its gas reserves. In addition their reserves do not appear to be very expansive and their infrastructure is weak.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0