Zohr Giant Gas Field Increases Production Six-Fold

They've yet to become self-sufficient in gas, I hear. In the longer term, who knows.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The real problem for Egypt is that it is totally dependent on the charity of the USA.  Right now Egypt receives some $3.5 billion in US foreign aid, and some chunk of that (or additional funds) are for keeping the military personnel content with paychecks.  Yet there is no reason to think that the Trump Administration is going to continue that indefinitely; the USA gets nothing for that aid money  (other than a marginally contented military dictator). the Trump fondness for authoritarian regimes has to be weighed against the costs of shovelling cash at them.  I don't see the USA continuing to pay Egypt's bills. 

Israel also gets about $3.5 billion from the USA, but that is more as a palliative or sop to the US Jewish vote, than for any  real support reason.  Between the two countries, there is $7 billion in funds that could be used for other Trump purposes.  While the Jews remain a power bloc in the USA, and Trump's own daughter has converted consequent to her marriage to Jared, there is nothing similar in the case of Egypt.  So chopping Egypt is an easy call, and chopping Israel to make it look even-handed is another (relatively) easy call, albeit at the risk of howls of protest from US Jews. 

Thus, for the dictators in Egypt to keep the army from revolting, some other source of ready cash has to be found.  Gas exports are tempting. I suspect the military would rather deprive Egyptians of some gas, by rationing, than not have cash coming in to pay the army.  On that basis, I anticipate the Egypt will be exporting to Europe soon enough, probably by means of a floating liquefaction plant.. 

  • Like 1
  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am pretty sure the Egyptian aide package started as part of the peace deal with Israel. At the time Israel occupied the Sinai. The average American probably doesn't give a fig about Egypt, but as you noted, Israel gets preferential treatment. Now foreign aide nuances are lost on the general public, and maybe POTUS. The Saudis spent, and still spend, real money putting in, and propping up, the current Egyptian leadership. So we are talking a bloc of nations that truly supports the current administration. And if the POTUS can't stop the reality that US government is harder on Putin than ever, I don't see him fighting to end Israeli support, upset his own evangelical base, and the Israeli's know the Egyptian support helps by, if not peace, active efforts against them from Egypt. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I thought that Egypt already had a plant to liquefy the NG, even working with Israel.

The military aid given to these two countries is more like just giving it to the USA's arms exporters as that's were the money ends up mostly.  

  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On 9/17/2018 at 1:58 PM, Jan van Eck said:

The real problem for Egypt is that it is totally dependent on the charity of the USA.  Right now Egypt receives some $3.5 billion in US foreign aid, and some chunk of that (or additional funds) are for keeping the military personnel content with paychecks.  Yet there is no reason to think that the Trump Administration is going to continue that indefinitely; the USA gets nothing for that aid money  (other than a marginally contented military dictator). the Trump fondness for authoritarian regimes has to be weighed against the costs of shovelling cash at them.  I don't see the USA continuing to pay Egypt's bills. 

Israel also gets about $3.5 billion from the USA, but that is more as a palliative or sop to the US Jewish vote, than for any  real support reason.  Between the two countries, there is $7 billion in funds that could be used for other Trump purposes.  While the Jews remain a power bloc in the USA, and Trump's own daughter has converted consequent to her marriage to Jared, there is nothing similar in the case of Egypt.  So chopping Egypt is an easy call, and chopping Israel to make it look even-handed is another (relatively) easy call, albeit at the risk of howls of protest from US Jews

Thus, for the dictators in Egypt to keep the army from revolting, some other source of ready cash has to be found.  Gas exports are tempting. I suspect the military would rather deprive Egyptians of some gas, by rationing, than not have cash coming in to pay the army.  On that basis, I anticipate the Egypt will be exporting to Europe soon enough, probably by means of a floating liquefaction plant.. 

If my memory serves me correctly, 74% voted democrat in the 2016 elections so one has to question what value this voter block would have to Trump.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0