THE GREAT OIL PRICE PREDICTION CHALLENGE OF 2018

Think you’ve got the oil price forecasting chops?

Whether you’re a seasoned trader with bazillions in your trading account, a geopolitical expert with oil company intel, a trader new to the crazy world of oil trading, a trusted analyst cited in news print, a community follower, or an average Joe who thinks he can best the best—have we got the contest for you!

No experience required.

We are looking for the best oil price predictions. That’s right. Let’s pit those oft cited analysts against Oil Price’s very best and see what’s what.

Community Members will have the opportunity to place their best oil price predictions in this thread in the following categories (you must be a member to enter, so join now!😞

1)   4 wk average WTI spot price as of December 31, 2018

2)   4 wk average Brent spot price as of December 31, 2018

3)   4 wk average spread between WTI/Brent as of December 31, 2018

Entries will be taken until September 30, 2018, and winners will be announced on or around January 12.  The spot price data that will be used to determine the contest winners is the EIA spot prices published here: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_m.htm

Along with your predictions in the three categories above, we would love to here your basis for your predictions, whether it’s based on technicals, fundamentals, geopolitics, or pulled straight out of your …er …hiney. Any information regarding your price predictions are welcomed as well.

IMPORTANT RULES

  • Price prediction posts CANNOT be edited. Edited posts will be disqualified from the challenge. We will keep a master list of the predictions, which will be used for determining the winners (one winner per category).
  • You may comment on other’s posts, and what you think about their prediction (keep it civil, please)
  • Off topic posts in this thread will be deleted
  • Winners will be selected at the start of the new year and will be notified via a community message. The winners will also be publicly listed in this thread.
  • To enter: Simply place your predictions for the three categories above in a post in this thread below no later than September 30, 2018.

WHAT DO YOU WIN?

Ohmagosh this is the best part. Not only do you win bragging rights and the respect of the entire Oil Price Community (priceless, really), the winner in each category will win a full year of Oil Price’s premium service, Oil Insider (a $997 value), as well as Oil Price’s Energy Market Intelligence, which will be delivered to you every week.

There will also be two runner ups in each category. The runner ups will win something almost cooler than the winning prize. Yes, it’s what you’ve always dreamed of: Slime. Black oozy slime in a miniature oil barrel.  

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*In the event that one person wins in all three categories, he or she will receive a lifetime subscription to Oil Insider and Energy Market Intelligence.

 

LET THE ODDS BE EVER IN YOUR FAVOR!!!

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WTI---- $75.73

BRENT ----$81.37

SPREAD  ---$5.64

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I didn't realize you guys like to gamble, SWEEEEEEET!  Time to hit The Google!  Ha! 9_9

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WTI - 80.06

Brent - 91.12

Spread - 9.22

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The respect of the entire community!?!?! Count me in.

The below are based on the assumption that the China/U.S. trade war will be resolved before the end of the year, with little tangible effect on oil demand while the Iran sanctions will cause a supply shortage that OPEC will not be able to cover. Meanwhile, pipeline bottlenecks in the U.S. will begin to have an impact on production before the end of the year.

1) $77.00

2) $83.00

3) $6.00

I'm not going to pretend I can predict it down to the cent.

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WTI - $69.69

Brent - $73.19

Spread - $3.50

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WTI $73.69

Brent $80.98

Spread $7.29

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WTI - $75.00

Brent - $85.00

Spread - $10.00

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It is very informative chart to show how crude oil is news driven, thank you!

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WTI - $75.2

Brent - $79.7

Spread - $4.5

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WTI $83

Brent $93

Spread $10

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WTI - $74.6

Brent - $79.7

Spread - $5.1

 

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1. US$60.00

2. US$65.00

3. US$5.00

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WTI - $65.00

Brent - $70.00

Spread - $5.00

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WTI - 74.06

Brent - 82.94

Spread - 8.88

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I will have a different approach. If oil prices would continue to sink to a level of 45 - 50 U.S. dollars then my prediction would be that we can expect a jump to between 200 - 250 or even more. 

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I am going to go with :

WTI 81.59

Brent 91.09

I have commercial inventories in the US dropping sub 20 days of refinery inputs at YE. Flakey OPEC supplies push up the spread, lack of OPEC ability to respond doubles down. Still heading North Jan 1st. 

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WTI=79.5

Brent=84.9

Spread=5.4

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$87.50 ave dec Brent, (predicting $90.50 high)

$78.50 ave dec WTI (predicting $80.50 high)

$9.00 spread (predicting large variability between $7-$11 spreads)

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Come December 31st, 2018. The four-week average of price of oil are going to be:

WTI = $88 USD

Brent = $96 USD

Spread = $8 USD

Since I'm making wild predictions, I will add these to enhance the back drop of my view:
- Trump successful at killing off oil shipment out of Iran
- Iraq runs into trouble
- Venezuela nearly in hell
- Trump puts tariff on all Chinese imports into the US
- China deploys large economic stimulus program to keep GDP growth on path
- The world finds out the limit of Saudi and American shale oil production
- Putin and Co makes Russia great again on the back of high oil prices

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(edited)

1 hour ago, Andrew Sun said:

Come December 31st, 2018. The four-week average of price of oil are going to be:

WTI = $70

Brent = $75 USD

Spread = $5 USD

Since I'm making  predictions, I will add these to enhance the back drop of my view:
The WILD US-China Tariff war will drag the global economy down

 

Edited by STH/CA
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