THE GREAT OIL PRICE PREDICTION CHALLENGE OF 2018

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4 Week AVG 

WTI @ $80.49

Brent @ $87.08

Spread @ $6.59

Tight market with higher risk on downside because of:

Demand side 

- China : U.S. Trade Skirmish 

- Dollar strength 

- EM slow down 

Tight market because of:

Supply side 

- Russia & Saudi boost supply 

- Iran sanctions reduce supply 

- Venezuela situation intensifies reduce supply 

- Russia & Saudi want good prices but don’t want to shock demand. Both looking for stable level. 

- Midterms over Trump pressure off 

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(edited)

The more we pull back our arrow the more and fast and precise we can get something in return. 45-50 is a good target.

Edited by Baran
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My predictions are:

WTI - $56

Brent - $61

Spread - $5

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WTI - $78

Brent - $87

Spread - $9

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WTI--$68.50

Brent--$76.70

Spread--$8.20

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December 31st, 2018. The four-week average of price of oil are going to be:

WTI = $80.28

Brent = $85.11 USD

Spread = $5.38 USD

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Hi,

considering the last 10 months weekly prices and applying Linear Regression Model the following are the prices obtained

1. 4wk average WTI spot price as of December 31 , 2018: $74.13

2. 4wk average Brent spot price as of December 31,2018 : $80.52

3. 4wk average spread between WTI/Brent as of December 31, 2018 : $6.39

*Data source: EIA

 

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WTI - $82.35

Brent - $90.69

Spread - $8.34

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WTI = $ 72

Brent = $ 75

Spread = $ 3

Predictions geo-political, consumption, supply & demand

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75.01 WTI

84.01 Brent

9.01 spread

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WTI 90.28  BRENT 96.72 SPREAD 6.44

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Geopolitical events will force the averages to be;

WTI....$68.35

Brent....$73.41

Spread....$5.11

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Brent - 82.4

WTI - 72.6

Spread - 9.8

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WTI---- $94

BRENT ----$102

SPREAD  ---$6

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WTI = 78.23

Brent = 92.08

Spread = 7.26

 

Pulled right from Head

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WTI=$93

Brent=$103

Spread=$10

I believe that Iran will create a major problem in the Strait of Hormuz with military action (mining, speed boat attacks, etc), similar to actions taken in 1988. Another catalyst I believe will cause supply constraints are: instability in Libya, Iraq, and Venezuela, et al. The Permian bottleneck will cause the spread to increase. 

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Unless the political chaos rise more my prediction on annual avg oil prices is:

wti:$75

brent:$80

spread:$5

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WTI - $69.00

Brent - $82.00

Spread - $13.00

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WTI = $103

BRENT = $96

SPEAD = $ 7

India is a rising consuption economy which thirsty for oil.

Major Meditteranean issues are going to happen. 

Already we know the "trade tax conflict" between the big economies.

My suggestion is that the oil is possible to go higher!!!

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Justification: China v US, US v Iran, Iran v NOPEC, Permian production v Permian pipelines and most of all my crystal ball was recently sent in for a solid buffing: 

WTI $72.12

Brent $83.17

Spread $11.05

 

p.s. Do people get disqualified if their spread isn't equal to Brent-WTI ? Maybe that's the tiebreaker ! 

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come December 31st,2018 the four week average price of oil will be:

WTI = $95

 

Brent= $102

 

Spread=$7 

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WTI  $87

Brent $107

Ti/Brent spread $-20

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3 hours ago, Dennis Coyne said:

Brent $88

WTI $78

Would you like to predict a spread price too? 

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I'm figuring it going hit $90.00 a barrel by December 31, 2018!!!

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