Rodent

THE GREAT OIL PRICE PREDICTION CHALLENGE OF 2018

Recommended Posts

On ‎9‎/‎24‎/‎2018 at 7:59 PM, Selvedina said:

Would you like to predict a spread price too? 

I believe the spread is redundant, it is Brent minus WTI, or in my case $10/b.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, Dennis Coyne said:

I believe the spread is redundant, it is Brent minus WTI, or in my case $10/b.

The "spread" is just a maths test..... LOL.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Brent 98.76

WTI 87.43

Spread 11.33

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

WTI:  68.25

Brent:  74.10 

Spread: 6.00

A stronger dollar, slowing economy in China and continuing trade wars. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

End of December, 2018: 

Brent = 84$/bbl

WTI = 76$/Bbl

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, rogers_flores said:

End of December, 2018: 

Brent = 84$/bbl

WTI = 76$/Bbl

Any predictions for  spread?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

WTI  $73.20

Brent  $83.15

Spread $9.95

I expect more turmoil in the energy markets no matter who wins the fall elections. Maduro might hold on a bit longer and the loss of more Venezuelan crude is already being factored in and becoming irrelevant. I don't see Trump and China making any real trade progress, but they might find a middle ground somewhere that lets them save face. US sanctions will cut some Iranian oil, but they will continue to find ways to export oil. All the saber-rattling will remain a war of words. Permian pipeline capacity will continue to get tighter even as the production declines get steeper. Shale industry has huge debt payments coming due this year and next, and there may not be enough new investors to fleece for more drilling capital. A lot of OPEC members are maxed out so, the market might still get tight. Lots of opposing forces, so there may not be much change by the end of the year.  

If I could predict the price of oil, I wouldn't be staring at this computer screen. I'd be lounging on my own private island and enjoying retirement. Good luck to all.

  • Like 2
  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hello! Coming too late to this! But well my prediction is 

WTI: 75$ 

Brent: 85$

Spread: 10$ USD

In my humble view, if and only IF there's a major shutdown of saudi oil production from a relevant oil well and field then we should be seeing a major spike in oil prices. I think the issue of Iran might be a little over- exaggerated so far since any further interruption from iranian oil output come the implementation of sanctions in November wont make a massive spike on oil prices. It simply wont. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1)   4 wk average WTI spot price as of December 31, 2018 = $96

2)   4 wk average Brent spot price as of December 31, 2018 = $102

3)   4 wk average spread between WTI/Brent as of December 31, 2018 = $6

 

My predictions are based on current and near future economics and historic price trends.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

WTI =  $79.25 USD

Brent = $88.50 USD

Spread = $9.25 USD

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Come December 31st, 2018. The four-week average of price of oil are going to be:

WTI = $ 77 USD

 Brent = $87 USD

 Spread = $10USD

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

OK, hate doing this, but on December 31, 2018, I predict the four-week average price for oil will be:

WTI: $62.75

Brent: $70.55

Spread: $7.80

Reasons:

1) $80 oil slows the economies for developing and Asian nations; 

2) Folks under-estimate the increased production coming from stripper wells (worldwide) that were shut-in and in disrepair when oil was ~$40.  As they come back into production, as the result of current prices, the uptick in production will temper prices. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Brent $91 usd on november

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Maybe next time you can do one on the spread between Canadian oil and WTI...just a thought from the land of the forgotten

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1)   4 wk average WTI spot price as of December 31, 2018: $85

2)   4 wk average Brent spot price as of December 31, 2018: $95

3)   4 wk average spread between WTI/Brent as of December 31, 2018: $10

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

With US-China Tariff war as the most important variable to taken into account, followed by the effects of the US Sanctions to Iran Oil exports and I am sure that Venezuela decline could be touching an steady floor at 1 Million of barrels per day by the end of the year, so with all that in mind my prediction is:

Brent: $85 USD

WTI: $80 USD

Spread: $5 USD

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

WTI = USD $80.43

Brent = USD $88.23

Spread = USD $7.80

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

WTI=72.94

Brent=78.51

Spread=7.12

 

Purely technical analysis, being conservative and considering historical moves during December in the last 10 years.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

December 31st, 2018. The four-week average of price of oil are going to be:

WTI - 94$

Brent - 102$

Spread - 8$

mainly because of upcoming sanctions on IRAN imposed by US

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, Kate Turlington said:

Maybe next time you can do one on the spread between Canadian oil and WTI...just a thought from the land of the forgotten

I can not believe the spread... is WCS radioactive or something?  Someone could make a lot of $ if they fix this.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

WTI---- $72.28

BRENT ----$80.12

SPREAD  ---$7.84

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Brent: $75

WTI: $ 68

SPREAD: $7 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.