So oil touched $80! (WTI break $71 twice). What does the future hold?

[Osama + 248]

23 hours ago, ceo_energemsier said:

The effects of Iranian sanctions will depend on some of these factors

1) the actions of the EU

2) Actions of buyers of Iranian crude and condensate ( Asian buyers-Japan, South Korea have already stopped buying all shipments; India is to show their direction-but they have been waiting for a signal from the US for an exemption). BTW Saudi's have indicated that they can and will replace sanctioned Iranian condensate barrels with their Arabian Extra Light Crude or a condensate.

3) Another major Asian buyer, China's action on buying Iranian Crude

4) How  far will the US go to enforce the sanctions and when.

5) Iran's action and success in trying to "swap" their crude with another producer (Russia and CIS countries-Azerbaijan etc)

This is an interesting editorial:

http://www.arabnews.com/node/1300306/business-economy

"But will the sanctions work this time? This really depends on the role that the EU plays. Last time it was not the embargo that hurt Iranian oil exports but the withdrawal of EU insurers from insuring Iranian tankers that made customers unwilling to buy Iranian oil."

The above says it all. Very interesting article!!

[ceo_energemsier + 1,818]

15 minutes ago, Osama said:

"But will the sanctions work this time? This really depends on the role that the EU plays. Last time it was not the embargo that hurt Iranian oil exports but the withdrawal of EU insurers from insuring Iranian tankers that made customers unwilling to buy Iranian oil."

The above says it all. Very interesting article!!

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/india-cuts-iranian-oil-imports-143000928.html

[ceo_energemsier + 1,818]

29/09/2018

 

Indian refiners will either have to significantly reduce or completely stop importing crude oil from Iran over the next month, increasing their dependence on other West Asian suppliers such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq, Moody’s Investors Service said on Thursday.

US President Donald Trump earlier this week in a speech to the United Nation’s General Assembly reiterated sanctions on Iranian oil exports will take effect on November 5 and that the US is working with countries that import Iranian oil to cut their purchases substantially.

India is the second largest buyer of Iranian crude after China, accounting for about 30 per cent of total crude exports from the Persian Gulf nation during April-August 2018.

Indian refineries, which import over 80 per cent of their crude feedstock from overseas, sourced about 14 per cent of their imports from Iran. “We expect Indian refiners will either have to significantly reduce or completely stop importing crude oil from Iran over the next month or so.

“As a result, Indian refiners will increase dependence on the remaining West Asian oil suppliers (mainly Saudi Arabia and Iraq), aside from Iran,” Moody’s said. Iranian crude is usually sold at a discount of up to $2-4 per barrel to other West Asian crude oil grades.

Iran’s national oil company, National Iranian Oil Company, also subsidises the freight costs for crude oil delivery and offers extended payment terms to buyers. “Assuming a complete cessation of imports of Iranian crude and $3 per barrel negative impact on earnings because of that, on the barrels being substituted, we estimate the total decline in earnings for Indian refiners to be $400-500 million, against combined EBITDA of about $10 billion for the three largest state-owned Indian refiners in 2017-18,” it said. “Thus, we expect the impact on the refiners’ credit metrics to be limited.”

Iranian crude oil is imported into India by refiners including Indian Oil Corp (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd (BPCL), Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd (HPCL), Reliance Industries, Nayara Energy and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd (MRPL).

“The sanctions on Iranian oil are credit negative for Indian refiners because their supplier concentration will increase after the sanctions take effect. “The refiners’ exposure to oil price volatility will also increase if they turn to the spot market,” Moody’s said.

It said India imported 220.4 million tonnes (mt) of crude oil in 2017-18 fiscal, of which about 9.4 per cent was from Iran. During April-August 2018, India imported 94.9 mt of crude, of which about 14.4 per cent was from Iran.

Exports to India accounted for 21 per cent of Iran’s crude oil outbound shipments in 2017-18 and 30 per cent from April to August 2018.
Source: PTI

[ceo_energemsier + 1,818]

29/09/2018

 

China’s Sinopec Corp is halving loadings of crude oil from Iran this month, as the state refiner comes under intense pressure from Washington to comply with a U.S. ban on Iranian oil from November, said people with knowledge of the matter.

The sources did not specify volumes, but based on the prevailing supply contract between the top Chinese refiner and the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC), its loadings would be reduced to about 130,000 barrels per day (bpd).

This would be 20 percent of China’s average daily imports from Iran in 2017, dealing a blow to Tehran, which has counted its top oil client to maintain imports while European and other Asian buyers wind down purchases to avoid U.S. sanctions.

The cut marks Sinopec’s deepest reduction in years as the Hong Kong and New York-listed state oil company faces direct pressure from a U.S administration determined to choke off the flow of petrodollars to the Islamic Republic.

The move comes after senior U.S. officials visited the refiner in Beijing last month, demanding steep cutbacks in Iranian oil purchases, said one of the sources.

“This round is completely different from last time. Then it was more of a consultative tone, but this time it’s almost like an ultimatum,” said the source.

The sources declined to be identified due to the sensitive nature of the matter. Sinopec declined to comment. NIOC did not respond a Reuters email seeking comment.

Further complicating the matter, Iran is having difficulty securing insurance for its oil vessels, said shipping and insurance sources, as most European and U.S.-based re-insurance firms are winding down their Iranian business.

Chinese buyers, including Sinopec and state-run trader Zhuhai Zhenrong Corp, have since July shifted their cargoes to vessels owned by National Iranian Tanker Co (NITC) to keep supplies flowing amid the reinstatement of economic sanctions by the United States.

During the last round of United Nations sanctions around 2011, officials from Washington asked Chinese firms to curb investments in Iranian oil and gas fields, but stopped short of demanding a full stop to oil shipments.

It’s not clear if Zhuhai Zhenrong has also reduced loadings this month. The state trader is contracted to lift some 240,000 bpd from Iran, mainly to feed Sinopec refineries.

It’s also not clear if Sinopec and PetroChina are cutting loadings from their upstream investment in key Iranian oilfields that total between 100,000 to 150,000 bpd. These loadings are separate from their annual supply contracts.

Beijing has repeatedly defended its energy trade with Tehran, worth about $1.5 billion a month, as transparent and lawful. Some of the top oil refineries that come under Sinopec are configured to process Iranian oil.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Chen Aizhu in BEIJING and Florence Tan in SINGAPORE; Additional reporting by Osamu Tsukimori in TOKYO and Jonathan Saul in LONDON; Editing by Tom Hogue)

[ceo_energemsier + 1,818]

35 minutes ago, Osama said:

"But will the sanctions work this time? This really depends on the role that the EU plays. Last time it was not the embargo that hurt Iranian oil exports but the withdrawal of EU insurers from insuring Iranian tankers that made customers unwilling to buy Iranian oil."

The above says it all. Very interesting article!!

This is very compelling:

" Further complicating the matter, Iran is having difficulty securing insurance for its oil vessels, said shipping and insurance sources, as most European and U.S.-based re-insurance firms are winding down their Iranian business".

[ceo_energemsier + 1,818]

Oil’s Leap Toward $100 Softens the Blow of Russia Sanctions

in Oil & Companies News 29/09/2018

 

When former U.S. President Barack Obama first imposed sanctions on Russia in 2014, a plunge in global crude prices turned the penalties into a crushing blow. This time round, oil markets are doing the opposite.

As U.S. lawmakers mull a new round of “crippling” sanctions, some traders are predicting the price of Russia’s main export will hit $100 a barrel for the first time since 2014. The windfall from higher oil revenue could end up mitigating the effect of even the harshest measures under discussion in Washington and investors are picking up Russian government bonds on the back of crude’s gains.

“The surge in oil prices should outweigh the sanction fear,” said Viktor Szabo, a portfolio manager at Aberdeen Standard Investments in London. “Russia is one of the strongest among emerging markets in terms of fundamentals.”

The renewed threat of U.S. penalties lumped Russian assets in with the worst performers amid the summer’s broader emerging-markets slump, but the subsequent crude-oil rally and central bank ruble support have sparked a rebound. In Washington meanwhile, U.S. lawmakers continue to brandish sanctions that could see a ban on new sovereign debt sales and even shut Russian banks out of the international financial system.

Strong Position
Paul McNamara, a London-based fund manager at GAM UK Ltd. with an overweight position in Russian ruble bonds, says he added to his holdings after the Russian central bank paused its policy of topping up reserves with hard-currency purchases to avoid exacerbating ruble weakness.

While he concedes that the tougher version of the penalties would mean “more downside” for Russian markets, “major macro issues” can be avoided with oil trading where it is. And if sanctions don’t materialize in their harshest form, current oil prices “put Russia in a very strong position,” he said.

The ruble trimmed its third weekly advance on Friday, the longest winning run since January. Yields on 10-year local debt have fallen 14 basis points this week to 8.55 percent, the lowest level since Aug. 16.

Daleep Singh, a former Treasury official who helped pen the sanctions against Russia in 2014, admitted in a recent testimony that most of the economic contraction in the country was caused by the decline in oil, not by limiting some Russian companies’ access to capital markets. “Most credible estimates” are that 10 percent to 40 percent was caused by U.S. sanctions, Daleep said.

Roller-Coaster
After skipping four local bond sales in a row, the longest stretch since the 2014 crisis, Russian officials say they have no need to rush back into the market and meet investors’ demand for a yield premium. The recent ruble weakness and elevated oil prices mean that the value of a barrel of Brent in ruble terms is close to a record, bolstering the budget and helping the government meet its local-currency spending goals.

“The higher price of oil helps because it insulates the economy from needing access to the debt markets, if that were touched in a worse-case scenario,” said James Barrineau at Schroders, who has also been picking up local OFZ debt. “It will help sovereign savings to grow and thus make market access less important in the short term,” as well as giving the government funds to support banks should the U.S. curtail their market access, he said.

While the impact of oil on the economy is easy to put a number on, the background threat of sanctions that may or may not materialize can’t be quantified. The U.S. Congress is unlikely to pass any new sanctions on Russia before the U.S. midterm elections in November, according to a Republican aide and a lawmaker.

“Sanctions are a roller-coaster,” Erich Arispe, director of sovereigns at Fitch Ratings Ltd said in an interview. “What we’ve seen repeatedly is that sanctions don’t stop. We are factoring that in for the foreseeable future.”
Source: Bloomberg

[ceo_energemsier + 1,818]

Analysis: Saudi Arabia’s untested claims of spare capacity may be put to the test

28/09/2018

 

Saudi Arabia has tried to dispel any fears of a coming supply squeeze by touting its spare production capacity.

The kingdom says it holds the ability to pump 1.5 million b/d above its current output of some 10.4 million b/d — crude that could be needed with US sanctions set to cripple Iranian supplies starting in November and Venezuela continuing on its economic freefall.
But many market watchers are skeptical that Saudi Arabia has the full amount of its claimed spare capacity actually available, casting doubt on whether OPEC’s largest producer can prevent a price spike from a supply shortage.

The country, OPEC’s largest producer by far, has never produced above 10.7 million b/d and state oil company Aramco has not allowed a full audit of its capabilities to be made public.

“If we define spare capacity as available in 30 days and sustainable and definitely without reserve damage, which is our definition, then we think there is well below 1.5 million b/d today,” said Bob McNally, president of consultancy Rapidan Energy.

The US Energy information Administration, using the definition described by McNally, estimates that all 15 of OPEC’s members hold a combined spare production capacity of 1.42 million b/d.

Other assessments are more generous. The International Energy Agency defines spare capacity as production that can be “reached within 90 days and sustained for an extended period.” As such, it estimates Saudi spare capacity at 1.62 million b/d and total production capacity at 12.04 million b/d.

The figures are being closely watched, as 1 million b/d or more of Iranian crude could be shut in by US sanctions and Venezuela’s production is expected to decline by some 300,000 b/d by the end of the year, according to some forecasts.

Even if Saudi Arabia and other producers are able to offset those losses, their ability to respond to any other market disruptions would be severely limited.

“If Saudi production enters uncharted territory in Q4 18, markets could react nervously, especially if further supply outages take place,” said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst for investment bank UBS.

SHOW ME THE BARRELS
In Algiers on Sunday, where he chaired a meeting of an OPEC/non-OPEC monitoring committee, Saudi energy minister Khalid al-Falih insisted that the kingdom stood ready to meet any customer requests for crude.

Saudi Aramco is able to produce 12 million b/d at will, he said, and once negotiations with Kuwait are complete, fields in the Neutral Zone shared by the two countries could add another 500,000 b/d.

“Show me the customer that needs [oil] and I assure you we will bring the production that is needed,” he said.

Already the kingdom’s output in September will be higher than August’s 10.4 million b/d, he said, and October “will be even higher.”

If Saudi Arabia is unable to pump the volumes needed, it will have to draw barrels from storage. Domestic inventories have been falling sharply in the past year, with Saudi crude stocks in July standing at 229 million barrels, the lowest since October 2009, according to figures the country reported to the Joint Organizations Data Initiative.

But Falih said Saudi Arabia has been building crude inventories in Aramco storage tanks in Japan, Egypt and the Netherlands to better address customer needs, though he did not provide any statistics.

“We have additional 1.5 million b/d spare capacity, [and] we have plenty oil storage, so we’ve got a good cushion to address any shortage,” he said.

Other OPEC members are also expected to chip in. The UAE claims some 500,000 b/d of spare capacity, while Kuwait has about 100,000 b/d, the head of its state oil company said at the S&P Global Platts Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference on Monday.

Rival producers, however, are skeptical, saying the fact that Saudi Arabia and other producers with spare capacity haven’t yet fully tapped their claimed capabilities is evidence that they don’t have much to begin with.

OPEC, Russia and nine other allies agreed in June to raise output by a collective 1 million b/d but revealed at the Algiers meeting that they are still some 500,000 to 600,000 b/d from that target.

“To my mind, it means we have a problem of producing more, all of us,” Omani oil minister Mohammed al-Rumhy said. “We cannot produce more.”

That sits well with Iran, whose officials have warned other OPEC members not to infringe on its sanctions-threatened market share.

“Let’s see if it is possible at all or not,” Iran’s OPEC Governor Hossein Kazempour Ardebili told Platts. “So far it has not been.”

Platts

[Osama + 248]

37 minutes ago, ceo_energemsier said:

29/09/2018

 

China’s Sinopec Corp is halving loadings of crude oil from Iran this month, as the state refiner comes under intense pressure from Washington to comply with a U.S. ban on Iranian oil from November, said people with knowledge of the matter.

The sources did not specify volumes, but based on the prevailing supply contract between the top Chinese refiner and the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC), its loadings would be reduced to about 130,000 barrels per day (bpd).

This would be 20 percent of China’s average daily imports from Iran in 2017, dealing a blow to Tehran, which has counted its top oil client to maintain imports while European and other Asian buyers wind down purchases to avoid U.S. sanctions.

The cut marks Sinopec’s deepest reduction in years as the Hong Kong and New York-listed state oil company faces direct pressure from a U.S administration determined to choke off the flow of petrodollars to the Islamic Republic.

The move comes after senior U.S. officials visited the refiner in Beijing last month, demanding steep cutbacks in Iranian oil purchases, said one of the sources.

“This round is completely different from last time. Then it was more of a consultative tone, but this time it’s almost like an ultimatum,” said the source.

The sources declined to be identified due to the sensitive nature of the matter. Sinopec declined to comment. NIOC did not respond a Reuters email seeking comment.

Further complicating the matter, Iran is having difficulty securing insurance for its oil vessels, said shipping and insurance sources, as most European and U.S.-based re-insurance firms are winding down their Iranian business.

Chinese buyers, including Sinopec and state-run trader Zhuhai Zhenrong Corp, have since July shifted their cargoes to vessels owned by National Iranian Tanker Co (NITC) to keep supplies flowing amid the reinstatement of economic sanctions by the United States.

During the last round of United Nations sanctions around 2011, officials from Washington asked Chinese firms to curb investments in Iranian oil and gas fields, but stopped short of demanding a full stop to oil shipments.

It’s not clear if Zhuhai Zhenrong has also reduced loadings this month. The state trader is contracted to lift some 240,000 bpd from Iran, mainly to feed Sinopec refineries.

It’s also not clear if Sinopec and PetroChina are cutting loadings from their upstream investment in key Iranian oilfields that total between 100,000 to 150,000 bpd. These loadings are separate from their annual supply contracts.

Beijing has repeatedly defended its energy trade with Tehran, worth about $1.5 billion a month, as transparent and lawful. Some of the top oil refineries that come under Sinopec are configured to process Iranian oil.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Chen Aizhu in BEIJING and Florence Tan in SINGAPORE; Additional reporting by Osamu Tsukimori in TOKYO and Jonathan Saul in LONDON; Editing by Tom Hogue)

This.....is not good. But I still suspect that Chinese imports will not be effected much!

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

The upward march of oil prices shows few signs of stopping

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

6 minutes ago, Osama said:

This.....is not good. But I still suspect that Chinese imports will not be effected much!

Not good.....for who?

[Osama + 248]

28 minutes ago, ceo_energemsier said:

Analysis: Saudi Arabia’s untested claims of spare capacity may be put to the test

28/09/2018

 

Saudi Arabia has tried to dispel any fears of a coming supply squeeze by touting its spare production capacity.

The kingdom says it holds the ability to pump 1.5 million b/d above its current output of some 10.4 million b/d — crude that could be needed with US sanctions set to cripple Iranian supplies starting in November and Venezuela continuing on its economic freefall.
But many market watchers are skeptical that Saudi Arabia has the full amount of its claimed spare capacity actually available, casting doubt on whether OPEC’s largest producer can prevent a price spike from a supply shortage.

The country, OPEC’s largest producer by far, has never produced above 10.7 million b/d and state oil company Aramco has not allowed a full audit of its capabilities to be made public.

“If we define spare capacity as available in 30 days and sustainable and definitely without reserve damage, which is our definition, then we think there is well below 1.5 million b/d today,” said Bob McNally, president of consultancy Rapidan Energy.

The US Energy information Administration, using the definition described by McNally, estimates that all 15 of OPEC’s members hold a combined spare production capacity of 1.42 million b/d.

Other assessments are more generous. The International Energy Agency defines spare capacity as production that can be “reached within 90 days and sustained for an extended period.” As such, it estimates Saudi spare capacity at 1.62 million b/d and total production capacity at 12.04 million b/d.

The figures are being closely watched, as 1 million b/d or more of Iranian crude could be shut in by US sanctions and Venezuela’s production is expected to decline by some 300,000 b/d by the end of the year, according to some forecasts.

Even if Saudi Arabia and other producers are able to offset those losses, their ability to respond to any other market disruptions would be severely limited.

“If Saudi production enters uncharted territory in Q4 18, markets could react nervously, especially if further supply outages take place,” said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst for investment bank UBS.

SHOW ME THE BARRELS
In Algiers on Sunday, where he chaired a meeting of an OPEC/non-OPEC monitoring committee, Saudi energy minister Khalid al-Falih insisted that the kingdom stood ready to meet any customer requests for crude.

Saudi Aramco is able to produce 12 million b/d at will, he said, and once negotiations with Kuwait are complete, fields in the Neutral Zone shared by the two countries could add another 500,000 b/d.

“Show me the customer that needs [oil] and I assure you we will bring the production that is needed,” he said.

Already the kingdom’s output in September will be higher than August’s 10.4 million b/d, he said, and October “will be even higher.”

If Saudi Arabia is unable to pump the volumes needed, it will have to draw barrels from storage. Domestic inventories have been falling sharply in the past year, with Saudi crude stocks in July standing at 229 million barrels, the lowest since October 2009, according to figures the country reported to the Joint Organizations Data Initiative.

But Falih said Saudi Arabia has been building crude inventories in Aramco storage tanks in Japan, Egypt and the Netherlands to better address customer needs, though he did not provide any statistics.

“We have additional 1.5 million b/d spare capacity, [and] we have plenty oil storage, so we’ve got a good cushion to address any shortage,” he said.

Other OPEC members are also expected to chip in. The UAE claims some 500,000 b/d of spare capacity, while Kuwait has about 100,000 b/d, the head of its state oil company said at the S&P Global Platts Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference on Monday.

Rival producers, however, are skeptical, saying the fact that Saudi Arabia and other producers with spare capacity haven’t yet fully tapped their claimed capabilities is evidence that they don’t have much to begin with.

OPEC, Russia and nine other allies agreed in June to raise output by a collective 1 million b/d but revealed at the Algiers meeting that they are still some 500,000 to 600,000 b/d from that target.

“To my mind, it means we have a problem of producing more, all of us,” Omani oil minister Mohammed al-Rumhy said. “We cannot produce more.”

That sits well with Iran, whose officials have warned other OPEC members not to infringe on its sanctions-threatened market share.

“Let’s see if it is possible at all or not,” Iran’s OPEC Governor Hossein Kazempour Ardebili told Platts. “So far it has not been.”

Platts

Well....If Russia and KSA both step in then the disruptions to the current supply can be taken care of. However, as you have mentioned a detailed article about how higher oil prices are helping Russians so chances of that happening is thin. The only scenario would be...and remains....if demand starts to wane down. 

[Osama + 248]

2 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

Not good.....for who?

For consumers as it can result in a further increase in oil prices! Psst---for me too, I am a bear and I had shorted oil!

[Osama + 248]

2 hours ago, Gurpreet Singh said:

@Osama

China's economic data for the month of Sep is expected to be released on mid of Oct 2018; how much impact should we expect on oil price in case the demand lower due to bad numbers from China because of trade war impact ? 

The recent figures from Platts (for September) for China's oil imports from Iran showed an increase of almost double the level from August.

China has categorically said that it will not reduce any imports of oil from Iran. However, as one of our members( @ceo_energemsier) has shared an article stating that Sinopec may reduce down its import...we might see a drop---albeit nothing significant.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

9 minutes ago, Osama said:

For consumers as it can result in a further increase in oil prices! Psst---for me too, I am a bear and I had shorted oil!

Agreed, and I feel for people who need cheaper gas.  Having said that, when oil prices dropped earlier this year I kept reading reports and talking to family back home in the U.S. that told me gas prices did not reflect the lower oil prices (in fact most of my family didn't even know that oil prices had lowered).  That irritates me quite a bit because prices at the pump seem to adjust higher with every oil move higher, but consumers these days seem to rarely get any significant break when oil is lower.

And I feel for your short trade, although I am long at this time, because just 2 or 3 months ago I was short using an inverse ETF and I watched a lot of money (well, a lot for me at this time anyway) go down the drain.  I'm hoping this uptrend at least makes up for those losses.  If I somehow end up with a net positive, I'll be very happy.  I'm standing by my prediction that this current uptrend won't stop until WTI/Trent pass $90/$100 respectively, but I'm making my trades in smaller $$ batches with a $5 up move required to profit each time.  Hopefully this will help me get out when the inevitable drops hit.

[Osama + 248]

A thought: Given the fact that there were elections in November and, I am assuming Trump knew that, why did he chose November 4th as the date of IRANIAN SANCTION( @ATK, I am always going to write them in majuscule) ? Didn't he know that it can result in higher gas prices at the pumps --- which normally is not admired by the customers/people? Then we have the trade war. Was he of the view that he would counter the effects of IRANIAN SANCTIONS with tariffs on China? IF yes, it was a hamfisted attempt, if not then how can he just avoid a blatant fact so easily? 

OR am I thinking too much?

@Tom Kirkman, @Dan Warnick, @ATK, @William Edwards, @Jan Erik, @Jan van Eck, @Marina Schwarz----What am I missing here? 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

8 minutes ago, Osama said:

The recent figures from Platts (for September) for China's oil imports from Iran showed an increase of almost double the level from August.

China has categorically said that it will not reduce any imports of oil from Iran. However, as one of our members( @ceo_energemsier) has shared an article stating that Sinopec may reduce down its import...we might see a drop---albeit nothing significant.

In order to keep "order" China has to keep industry going.  For the masses, Chinese city roads are infamously snarled and they can and do institute driving day restrictions which can give them, what's the term, a way to reduce automobile consumption at least.  They can do a few things like that to keep the masses in the dark.  Industry being controlled by the State makes keeping a lid on those issues fairly easy.  We'll see; it's a delicate balancing act to be sure.

[Osama + 248]

3 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

Agreed, and I feel for people who need cheaper gas.  Having said that, when oil prices dropped earlier this year I kept reading reports and talking to family back home in the U.S. that told me gas prices did not reflect the lower oil prices (in fact most of my family didn't even know that oil prices had lowered).  That irritates me quite a bit because prices at the pump seem to adjust higher with every oil move higher, but consumers these days seem to rarely get any significant break when oil is lower.

And I feel for your short trade, although I am long at this time, because just 2 or 3 months ago I was short using an inverse ETF and I watched a lot of money (well, a lot for me at this time anyway) go down the drain.  I'm hoping this uptrend at least makes up for those losses.  If I somehow end up with a net positive, I'll be very happy.  I'm standing by my prediction that this current uptrend won't stop until WTI/Trent pass $90/$100 respectively, but I'm making my trades in smaller $$ batches with a $5 up move required to profit each time.  Hopefully this will help me get out when the inevitable drops hit.

This is strange---and it also happens here.

 

Regarding the trade---I am not as experienced a trader as you are or others might be. It is therefore possible that I misread the effect of tariffs on China and opted to go short. A part of me believes that, given the conditions, oil can easily cross $90 but then other factors make it really hard for me to accept that (by the way, it now looks very plausible). I am looking for $75 and then I may average out and get out of my position with a less loss. It will take one or two inventory buildups. 

AND best of luck -- I really hope you recover the loss!-and after that I as well. Hah!

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

6 minutes ago, Osama said:

A thought: Given the fact that there were elections in November and, I am assuming Trump knew that, why did he chose November 4th as the date of IRANIAN SANCTION( @ATK, I am always going to write them in majuscule) ? Didn't he know that it can result in higher gas prices at the pumps --- which normally is not admired by the customers/people? Then we have the trade war. Was he of the view that he would counter the effects of IRANIAN SANCTIONS with tariffs on China? IF yes, it was a hamfisted attempt, if not then how can he just avoid a blatant fact so easily? 

OR am I thinking too much?

@Tom Kirkman, @Dan Warnick, @ATK, @William Edwards, @Jan Erik, @Jan van Eck, @Marina Schwarz----What am I missing here? 

I think there are two issues at play here: 1) Rick Perry assured Trump that fracking could make up for IRANIAN SANCTIONS if OPEC and Russia didn't make it up themselves, and 2) like I've stated previously, Trump may believe that the headlines about his efforts is sufficient in this case to mollify the masses while bringing windfalls to his wealthy supporters in the oil industry in the U.S.

[Osama + 248]

7 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

I think there are two issues at play here: 1) Rick Perry assured Trump that fracking could make up for IRANIAN SANCTIONS if OPEC and Russia didn't make it up themselves, and 2) like I've stated previously, Trump may believe that the headlines about his efforts is sufficient in this case to mollify the masses while bringing windfalls to his wealthy supporters in the oil industry in the U.S.

Both didn't happen...yes. 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

4 minutes ago, Osama said:

Both didn't happen...yes. 

I didn't say Rick Perry is right very often!  However, I do believe Trump's base will be satisfied enough with his efforts as evidenced by the headlines he generates about his tweets directed at OPEC.  His base, contrary to popular MSM bias, is not unable to afford gas at $3-$4 a gallon.  Some have trouble with it, but by and large they don't.

[Osama + 248]

Trump Gets Oil Traders' Attention Over Call With Saudi King-https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-09-29/trump-grabs-oil-trader-interest-over-call-with-saudi-king-salman

"The pair discussed efforts to maintain supplies to ensure the stability of the oil market and growth of the global economy, plus the strategic partnership between the two countries, Al Arabiya TV reported, without providing more details. The White House said Trump and the King spoke on “issues of regional concern.” "

Something's cooking?!

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

2 hours ago, Osama said:

Trump Gets Oil Traders' Attention Over Call With Saudi King-https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-09-29/trump-grabs-oil-trader-interest-over-call-with-saudi-king-salman

"The pair discussed efforts to maintain supplies to ensure the stability of the oil market and growth of the global economy, plus the strategic partnership between the two countries, Al Arabiya TV reported, without providing more details. The White House said Trump and the King spoke on “issues of regional concern.” "

Something's cooking?!

That is a lot different from we need prices to be lower.  I hope you're wrong, @Osama, but I fear you may be right.

[Osama + 248]

11 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

That is a lot different from we need prices to be lower.  I hope you're wrong, @Osama, but I fear you may be right.

But Mr. @Dan Warnick, you should feel safe with IRANIAN SANCTIONS prevailing the world these days.  

 

I was expecting the same from Algiers JMMC as well..but it turns out...KSA is to going to yield any time soon....hence ..chances are I might be wrong.

 

[Osama + 248]

What Oil at $100 a Barrel Would Mean for the Global Economy---https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-30/what-oil-at-100-a-barrel-would-mean-for-the-world-economy

1. What does it mean for global growth?

2. How can the world economy absorb oil at $100?

3. How will Iran and Trump impact the market?

4. Who wins from higher oil prices?

4. Who loses?

5. What does it mean for the the world’s biggest economy?

6. Will it lead to higher inflation around the world?

7. What does it mean for central banks?