WTI @ $75.75, headed for $64 - 67

Was away trading forex, and coming up with a system, that would catch all the swings of forex, and that i could use in WTI, Indeed it did catch the SWING from 65 in WTI. But here we have a place where WTI has to reverse to the sixties. 

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14 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Was away trading forex, and coming up with a system, that would catch all the swings of forex, and that i could use in WTI, Indeed it did catch the SWING from 65 in WTI. But here we have a place where WTI has to reverse to the sixties. 

You want to translate that statement?  When is this reversal to the downside going to happen, in your esteemed opinion?

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for that i need to drill down a little bit further

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5 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Between now, 75.75 and 76.6

You talking about a short dip or steady downwards?  Rockets from Iran going off in Syria.  IRANIAN SANCTIONS.  Oh my!

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2 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

A dip that could last some time

Now JJ, you sound like one of those talking heads on TV.  A dip that could last some time.....

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Oh god another one of JJ's guesses, going 100% calls then if you say we are going down

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1 hour ago, ATK said:

Oh god another one of JJ's guesses, going 100% calls then if you say we are going down

Yes yes, that’s what I am expecting for! A steady downfall, I ll sell my house and all in! Hahahha. You are hero if your prediction comes real. 😇😇😇

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I dont really see what difference that makes, if you short from 76 to 69 who cares how long it will go down. People take the money and run.

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Here is the deal. Had i been long wti i would have exited right here. And probably starting building up a short position with a stop loss of 78. LIke i said this isnt a clear clear short based on my system, but simply based on price action, its up there, since oil is very unpredictable, holding long here would be dangerous, no matter how many rocks are flying right now in the middle east.

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yes i must say crude is a little overbought right now and due for a pull back, before continuing to climb higher still - very much in a bull market leading upto iran sanctions etc - however i have to completely disagree that its going to end up mid sixties anytime soon.

My advice - wait for the pull back and buy the dip - no point buying into resistance or when RSI indicates extremely overbought...

And lastly my prediction - it will goto $80 before october is over...

 

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(edited)

Id be looking to buy in the 74-74.50 range... its also tempting to sell it right now for a small corrective move but it wouldnt be something id feel comfortable with. A smarter option is to wait for a better opportunity to buy.

The correction should play out over the next 24-36 hours or thereabouts. Then ill start looking for signs of buyers returning and jump on the next rally... so its wait and see for at least a day or perhaps 2. Then ready for action.

Another possibility that could play out is that the price simply consolidates in the current zone for a similar period. After which brings the RSI back into a neutral zone again and the gives buyers confidence not in overbought zone... in this instance the rally may resume again from around the current level.

 

image.png

Edited by catch22

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Pullback is certain, i think most can see that. But is this a temporary top that will give? That only a Top Oil Trader can predict. Let hope he is right.

Noone else is saying oil will drop 5 - 10 bucks here.  But if i look at crude, the  trend is still up, so this fall won't be the end of the up move for crude, it is a temporary drop.

Ok lets be a little more conservative, it has to drop to at least 73.75, that would be the first drop, if that brings in the bears thenthe  2nd target of 69. If the bulls see this as a bullish opportunity of buying the retrace, well then all logic goes out the door. From watching Crude it is very obvious, that gamblers rule this commodity, and most want it to go up, especially when it is very hot like now. Sometimes their exuberance causes crude to go up even further than where demand would push down the prices.

Fundamentally the $ has gone through the roof, oil is now very expensive for most EMs, as such Crude will have to drop, just so that those EMs wont go completely have to devalue their currencies.

Now very long term is does look like 75-76 is where the oil prices will need to head downwards, for i would say a couple of weeks.

The EU will not honor the IRAN embargo, once that hits the market, the embargo fear will be gone, and Crude could crash, due to the Saudis pumping too much oil, to provide for the IRAN embargo.

 

 

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So anyways created a simple chart to explain why crude could drop, notice the boxes are the latest signals, the purple box is where is expect the short signal to come. Due to WTI being very volatile the short should come in at 76-77 range.

wti.jpg

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I have to be honest, I am not in the slightest bit interest in technical analysis. Curve trades makes it meaningless.

I think that the spread might narrow between WTI and Brent, but see little downside on Brent.

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15 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Was away trading forex, and coming up with a system, that would catch all the swings of forex, and that i could use in WTI, Indeed it did catch the SWING from 65 in WTI. But here we have a place where WTI has to reverse to the sixties. 

I had short oil at 70.10 … do you think now is the time to average it?

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You never average down. once you make a mistake take the loss quick.

But if you short and you make money well that will reduce your net loss. and many traders who hold positions at loss will try do small trades to offset their losses.

Looking at my charts here. we should hit 74,85 later. and probably 73.95 this week.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

You never average down. once you make a mistake take the loss quick.

But if you short and you make money well that will reduce your net loss. and many traders who hold positions at loss will try do small trades to offset their losses.

Looking at my charts here. we should hit 74,85 later. and probably 73.95 this week.

 

 

So I should short at this rate and take profit at the rates you mentioned.

Yes I won't average out....but will try to make up for my loss. Let me confess that I do not have much experience in trading per se.

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Osama when i give those targets, you need to wait for a good entry. Since im watching the eur constantly i dont have the wti in front of me all the tiem. To pinpoint exact entry is hard if you dont watch its rhythm all the time, u got to feel where to short. Knowing  wti that thin can jump a buck for no reason, so if you short without thinking, no good. I see where it can go, but the exact place to short, i would need to watch a couple of time frames, to be able to enter    correctly.

 

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i can give you 2  targets to short from  first you should have shorted at close to 76, now its 75.60. so you missed 30 of the move.

but the best place to short would be 76.50 if it gets there and stalls. But if wti goes below 74.8, thats a good place to short too. keep me posted

 

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5 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Osama when i give those targets, you need to wait for a good entry. Since im watching the eur constantly i dont have the wti in front of me all the tiem. To pinpoint exact entry is hard if you dont watch its rhythm all the time, u got to feel where to short. Knowing  wti that thin can jump a buck for no reason, so if you short without thinking, no good. I see where it can go, but the exact place to short, i would need to watch a couple of time frames, to be able to enter    correctly.

 

Indeed.... and I have learnt it the hard way.

I personally thought that trade war is going to certainly shed some dollars but it never happened.....markets were and are bedazzled by IRANIAN SANCTIONS. In my humble opinion the way things are going WTI can jump further up. However, with KSA and Kuwait meeting this Sunday we might see, as you predict, a little drop in prices. I hope it doesn't turns out like last Sunday (Algiers JMCC meeting!).

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4 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Osama good luck.

Thank you!

 

I am following this thread for further insights.

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i Have learnt never to predict the news of fundamentals. I think that is a losing proposition. I think most people who trade do this since they think they mind can grasp it and put 1 and 1 together. What they fail to understand is that the big boys put 1 and 1 toghether weeks ago, and you are trading at their mercy, so the knowledge you understand from the news, is a big waste of time. I simply look at the action and see what it tells me, down, up or sideways. Then i can look for a reason why this price action may happen, and that could be something related to the current news stories, Iran, Trump. Huricane whatever.

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