Shubham Sahu 0 October 10, 2018 What about this weak wti prices? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Top Oil Trader + 469 JJ October 10, 2018 (edited) good luck Edited October 10, 2018 by Top Oil Trader Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NAPHTA + 33 DN October 10, 2018 6 hours ago, catch22 said: No i think you may have missed some important details... please note that i said in the short term, i think there is no trade to be had. In the short term, i think, its 50/50 casino bet. The main levels we need to break are the previous high from last week or the recent low from yesterday- this is our range and theres no telling what it will do within this range for now. IMHO i think it will likely range about the WPP shown in my previous chart until there is some market moving geopolitical or fundamental news/data on the table. To successfully trade the markets you need to have a bunch of indicators on the table to increase your chances beyond 50/50. Some technical setups are statistically proven to have as much as 85% probability. Therefore if you only bet on those setups - in the long term you will win more than you loose. IF you simply trade whatever on a feeling and effectively taking 50/50 bets or worse (15% if you inadvertantly trade against an 85% proability setup for example) - you will loose more than you win... So an important part of being a successful trader is knowing alot about the probabilities your about to dive into... this only comes with knowledge, information, and experience, and theres a hell of alot to know! Was away the second half of the day for some work. Thanks Catch22. I think IEA will be one of those major news tomorrow. Until then, I think will range with a certain bias for higher highs within that channel. Will see Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Top Oil Trader + 469 JJ October 10, 2018 (edited) Finally understand now how to enter at the top. Never dawned upon me until now. You can basically catch the top or the bottom of a swing, 60% of the time. Catching the swing is easy, but catching it almost at beg is the impossible thing. Finally understood how that is now possible. Next time WTI moves up so the next swing i will try to catch the absolute bottom Edited October 10, 2018 by Top Oil Trader Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
catch22 + 244 nn October 10, 2018 (edited) 2 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said: Finally understand now how to enter at the top. Never dawned upon me until now. You can basically catch the top or the bottom of a swing, 60% of the time. Catching the swing is easy, but catching it almost at beg is the impossible thing. Finally understood how that is now possible. Next time WTI moves up so the next swing i will try to catch the absolute bottom You can try that ive tried to do that once upon a time also, however i found its not that easy... ive since found a better strategy. What i do is wait for the price action to confirm the swing. ie- Its better to have a late entry after the turn and capture a smaller portion of the swing than getting in early to try and catch the peak. Often if you try the former - the market often pauses at the pivot or other significant level, you think its turning and it may even pull back touch, but then keeps going the way it was headed and you loose. If you wait a little longer for the price action to pull back further and get a stronger move showing first - you get less profit but a much higher probability trade which will pay off more often as opposed to getting sucked into the head fake moves... Ill also emphasize that you need multiple reasons to enter a contrarian trade not just one indicator or level. If you dont have multiple good technical reasons, you often find yourself fighting a trend and that results in heavy losses. Contrarian or swing trading is an advanced trading technique due to this very reason and not recommended without very good understanding and knowledge of the market. WTI still within 5c of the WPP btw - remember i said no trade to be had? Edited October 10, 2018 by catch22 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Top Oil Trader + 469 JJ October 10, 2018 If you want to play wti safely. Short below 73 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Top Oil Trader + 469 JJ October 10, 2018 ATK, im now ready to trade crude again. My system cant be any more perfect. I always try to stay humble, but it is hard when you are this perfect. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Top Oil Trader + 469 JJ October 10, 2018 (edited) Ok Just transferred money into crude, will start again today. But will be careful. Based on what i see, wti 74.33 will go higher. So no trade. Edited October 10, 2018 by Top Oil Trader Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Top Oil Trader + 469 JJ October 10, 2018 well just shorted 1 contarct here. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Top Oil Trader + 469 JJ October 10, 2018 2 contract short now, hopefully i can hold them for below 73 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Top Oil Trader + 469 JJ October 10, 2018 So basically if 74.3 breaks it could hit 72.7 even today. lets see Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Top Oil Trader + 469 JJ October 10, 2018 so far up 200 bucks Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Top Oil Trader + 469 JJ October 10, 2018 Ok will need to exit at 73.4, should bounce up from there Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
catch22 + 244 nn October 10, 2018 43 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said: ATK, im now ready to trade crude again. My system cant be any more perfect. I always try to stay humble, but it is hard when you are this perfect. please show us your trading signals in real time... id love to see perfection in action 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jo Mack + 43 JM October 10, 2018 The only way you can possibly predict the price of oil is to actually watch the countries with spare capacity and the stability of their countries. It's a crap shoot. Libya is starting to get some control over the resistance (being kind on that front) Mexico has asked US oil companies to make them increase production with improved technology. Even how we perf has been turned on its head. So I'll be very interested when November and forward begins to see the actual impact on he oil sector. China is reducing its tariffs on crude, but it imports only 300,000 bbls so dont see them being a major factor on the US export picture. Theyve already removed tariffs on natural gas so believe theyll also do it on crude. At this point theyre using back door off contract to get Iranian oil. So already theyre trying to skirt sanctions. Such hard work for them as they twist, turn and stand on their corrupt heads to get around trade hurdles. At some point in the near future they will lose control of more than the Yuan. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Top Oil Trader + 469 JJ October 10, 2018 it is in action 2 contracts Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
catch22 + 244 nn October 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Top Oil Trader said: it is in action 2 contracts whats you sell price? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
catch22 + 244 nn October 10, 2018 post a screen shot.... Fn prntscn then forum, ctrl + V - its that easy... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Top Oil Trader + 469 JJ October 10, 2018 prices now very oversold getting ready to close maybe at 60 points lower Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Top Oil Trader + 469 JJ October 10, 2018 im out 1k for the day Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dan Warnick + 6,100 October 10, 2018 8 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said: im out 1k for the day Good for you. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BillKidd + 139 BK October 10, 2018 37 minutes ago, Jo Mack said: The only way you can possibly predict the price of oil is to actually watch the countries with spare capacity and the stability of their countries. It's a crap shoot. Libya is starting to get some control over the resistance (being kind on that front) Mexico has asked US oil companies to make them increase production with improved technology. Even how we perf has been turned on its head. So I'll be very interested when November and forward begins to see the actual impact on he oil sector. China is reducing its tariffs on crude, but it imports only 300,000 bbls so dont see them being a major factor on the US export picture. Theyve already removed tariffs on natural gas so believe theyll also do it on crude. At this point theyre using back door off contract to get Iranian oil. So already theyre trying to skirt sanctions. Such hard work for them as they twist, turn and stand on their corrupt heads to get around trade hurdles. At some point in the near future they will lose control of more than the Yuan. The emboldened and underlines above, what do you mean by that? More perf clusters per lateral or something else? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Top Oil Trader + 469 JJ October 10, 2018 wow went down nother 90 what a shame Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Top Oil Trader + 469 JJ October 10, 2018 Dan could have make nother 2k, pretty upset didnt follow my 1st target, but saw it willy dally so got out. morrow will be another day 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dan Warnick + 6,100 October 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Top Oil Trader said: Dan could have make nother 2k, pretty upset didnt follow my 1st target, but saw it willy dally so got out. morrow will be another day A lot more nerve wracking when it's real money in the mix, ain't it? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
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