WTI @ $75.75, headed for $64 - 67

[ATK + 355]

Only off by 8 million barrels! NBD lol

[Robert Ziegler + 121]

2 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

By the way the democrat ticket will be Hilary/Michelle. 

Who says EIA is right?

[ATK + 355]

44 minutes ago, Robert Ziegler said:

Who says EIA is right?

Lol well whether or not it's right, the market treats it as the gold standard 

[ATK + 355]

So after looking more into the report, it seems that hurricane Michael did affect production numbers, but also resulted in decreased exports out the gulf. Never even thought to consider that, but a good learning experience nonetheless

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

wasnt watching so they brought it up, enough for the crash. vicious. I hope people didnt take the fake breakout. If they did, they wish they had read my posts.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Not once did i say the selloff was over and it is now reversing the down trend. The high of the target is still 67 with 64 being the extreme target. After that it will be random until they decide to bring it back up, to probalby the 80s.

The trade was basically go short at 73 and cover at 67 for a cool couple of 1000s per contract.

 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

So i mentioned beg of week that we would hit 69.40, ATK i think you can find the post, you are pretty good at these things, and indeed the low today was 69.35 so not bad. Now  from here, we need a retrace. Somewhere between 70 - 71, dont want to give you the exact target, i think these guys must be reading my posts. Now i hate to say this, but once the retrace is done, oil could drop even further than today. So in effect the 64-67 target sill in play, but if you are not short from 73-74 area, then pinpointing the exact entry, you got to be really good for that.

Edited October 17, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

I have now developed a very sophisticated daytrading system on crude. Truth is it work in all heavily traded markets, it seems all the market makers are taught the same technique, which have been eluding retail traders, not its not some pattern or support, or candle pattern. For my swings i of course look at longer time timeframes. But to get in and out for like 100 points, its a completely different way to look at things. I wont be using it yet. For now will be watching it when i have time.

[BillKidd + 139]

I sure hope WTI hits $80 for at least awhile so my oil stocks will go up so I can get out of the market, lol. I'm skeered of uncertainty with the U.S. elections and the markets skittish nature. I'm gambling I can get out without losing. Like a dummy, I bought big on a company just a few months ago because its economics are so fantastic. But it's small and they are being quiet as a church mouse while they work deals behind the scenes to ramp up bigger, and quiet isn't good for a move up. I wish they were tooting their horn, they should know I don't want to lose, lol. (down 15%) If oil would stay $70+ and they toot their horn, I could make big but I'd be happy to just get out even!

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

ATK the learning experience should be, not to get manipulated by the media, or other big time analysts. As i have shown you many times, you get it wrong at the top, and wrong at the bottom. But these guys will be coming back every week, because they can always pull out a reason for a move out of a hat at a moments notice.

[Robert Ziegler + 121]

11 hours ago, ATK said:

Lol well whether or not it's right, the market treats it as the gold standard 

Yes, everything I made money with the last year was rated a strong sell or sell by the "market ANALysts...." But why should fake news be limited to politics?

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

if WTI can go above 70.5 for say 10 minutes it would be a long.

[Osama + 248]

6 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

So i mentioned beg of week that we would hit 69.40, ATK i think you can find the post, you are pretty good at these things, and indeed the low today was 69.35 so not bad. Now  from here, we need a retrace. Somewhere between 70 - 71, dont want to give you the exact target, i think these guys must be reading my posts. Now i hate to say this, but once the retrace is done, oil could drop even further than today. So in effect the 64-67 target sill in play, but if you are not short from 73-74 area, then pinpointing the exact entry, you got to be really good for that.

Interesting.....Indeed, there seems to be no bullish catalyst right now to hype up the prices....oh but wait....they can create one in a jiffy right?

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

well no. they cant. what they can do is during a downtrend spike it up, before bringing it down. or in an uptrend spike it down, famous for doing that.most cases those spikes are 50 cents, enough to take most small time traders out. When it is about to reverse up, could be lower 60s level, there will be wild moves of 2 bucks up and down, until they get their act together, actually until they take up all the liquidity, and then move it up in the uptrend. shorting during that time, wont be a good idea. So indeed crude is like a violent war faught between the goths and the romans, anyone inside the fight cant tell the outcome, but an eagle soaring very high, can tell when the fight will almost be over, and who will win. Same here. With the right analysis, this can also be determined way in advance. Its very likely the dollar will drop tomorrow, and that might cause oil to go up, i say might. But only by knowing the dollar will drop could you come to that conclusion. For now unless wti goes above 70.50 and stays there, it cant go up, there wont even be a counter trend move..

Edited October 18, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

1 hour ago, Top Oil Trader said:

if WTI can go above 70.5 for say 10 minutes it would be a long.

What do you mean "it would be a long"?

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

what do i  mean? a short term long. But so far this hasnt happened. so nothing to worry about.

A while ago when i first got here, what i figured out was the long term trade in crude. What i had difficulty in was the intraday up and down. I have worked on this now, i must have added and subtracted probably at least 1000 times, until i got it where i am now. So that now with great accuracy i can tell exactly where the exit will be for the day, the reversal, etc. Of course when they decide to turn crude around, it will be choppy, but i do think my system will be able to get in and out, with some small losses during the volatility. Since not only does it have the exact entries, but also the stops, as well as where the reversal intra day could be.So very happy about that.

 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

I now after a long while understand why lose money, i must admit ofcourse i was in that camp too, and indeed everytime i update my daytrade system its after taking a hit, so i would say my daytrade system so far has cost me quite a lot.

Anyways why most people lose is simple. Actually i may need to write a book to explain, since it goes into how humans think, and how they can be outwitted easily by big money.

So most dont really have a good trading system, in other words its subjective, in other words they are not that sure of the system, some only have systems that are 40% accurate. 

So,everytime the prices go 5points 10 points against their system they doubt themselves and sometimes overrule their system. So its very easy to fool somone when they system is not that good. This is how the big boys are able to fool most traders, including the big ones.

So therefore, unless u have absolute confidence in your system, every move against it, will make you get out of the trade too early, or take a loss too early.

This of course is not how the real business world works, since there you dont mind if you buy a house and it goes 10k down in value, you, still keep it no questions asked, not so in trading.

 

 

 

[nimbus 0]

yes tes i am loosing on ERX. I day trade but have no system. Would you you please suggest one?

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

what is erx?

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

31 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

what do i  mean? a short term long. But so far this hasnt happened. so nothing to worry about.

A while ago when i first got here, what i figured out was the long term trade in crude. What i had difficulty in was the intraday up and down. I have worked on this now, i must have added and subtracted probably at least 1000 times, until i got it where i am now. So that now with great accuracy i can tell exactly where the exit will be for the day, the reversal, etc. Of course when they decide to turn crude around, it will be choppy, but i do think my system will be able to get in and out, with some small losses during the volatility. Since not only does it have the exact entries, but also the stops, as well as where the reversal intra day could be.So very happy about that.

 

Good news, JJ.  I'm glad for you and wish you continued success.  That is, after all, what this is all about, right? 

At this time I am limited to NOT day trading, so I must make a trade that I believe will hold to or mature on the day after I trade, or after that even.  That's ok for me for now, but it would be nice to have day trading in my ammunition belt, so to speak, in the future.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

16 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

what is erx?

It's a long oil industry mix bull 3x ETF.  ERY is a short industry mix ETF and I have traded that one in the past pretty well.  ERY is a 3x bear and can be lucrative if your trend is right of course.

There are better oil only ETFs that can be traded and I prefer them right now.  If the whole industry starts to tank, I will more than likely go back to ERY.

Edited October 18, 2018 by Dan Warnick

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

I dont do options, or spreads. Just plain contracts. There is an art to options, but its more mathmatical, i guess if you put in some knowledge of charts, you could really makes lots on options. Since you could buy the calls just before the reversal, at very low prices, just when everyone cant get rid of them fast enough.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

sorry i dont have Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF (ERX) on my platform, so cant even begin to tell you, if you can come up with a system for that.

Generally i just have the big futures, currencies, metals.

 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

1 minute ago, Top Oil Trader said:

I dont do options, or spreads. Just plain contracts. There is an art to options, but its more mathmatical, i guess if you put in some knowledge of charts, you could really makes lots on options. Since you could buy the calls just before the reversal, at very low prices, just when everyone cant get rid of them fast enough.

Yeah, but aren't you trading futures?  These ETFs aren't futures per se.  Whole different ballgame really.  I used to trade futures, back in the past, so you could say I'm a futures trader in the past!😎

[catch22 + 244]

49 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

I now after a long while understand why lose money, i must admit ofcourse i was in that camp too, and indeed everytime i update my daytrade system its after taking a hit, so i would say my daytrade system so far has cost me quite a lot.

Anyways why most people lose is simple. Actually i may need to write a book to explain, since it goes into how humans think, and how they can be outwitted easily by big money.

So most dont really have a good trading system, in other words its subjective, in other words they are not that sure of the system, some only have systems that are 40% accurate. 

So,everytime the prices go 5points 10 points against their system they doubt themselves and sometimes overrule their system. So its very easy to fool somone when they system is not that good. This is how the big boys are able to fool most traders, including the big ones.

So therefore, unless u have absolute confidence in your system, every move against it, will make you get out of the trade too early, or take a loss too early.

This of course is not how the real business world works, since there you dont mind if you buy a house and it goes 10k down in value, you, still keep it no questions asked, not so in trading.

 

 

 

Your close JJ - very close...

Im going to say something very important about price - something an ex Merril Lynch analyst explained.

What causes a price to move up or down?

Think about that...

Most people cannot answer it.

There is only 1 correct answer - "a difference between the CONVICTIONS of traders on either side of ANY trade."

The price can only move higher if a trader bids it higher than its current price - buyers have a conviction to buy at a higher than current price in anticipation it will go up - greed.

The price can only move lower if a seller offers the asset down at a lower than current price - sellers have a conviction to sell at a lower than current price in anticipation the price will go down - fear.

Without either of these 2 things happening - prices cannot move from where they are.

Fear is a more powerful emotion than greed - this is why crashes happen quicker and more voilently than any bull rally.

Only the big money can move prices up or down - and they can and do it at will.

If you can figure out what the big money is doing - you can trade with them and not against them. This is largely why i beleive techincal analysis works - its a self fulfilling prophecy in that there is enough money following typical techincal analysis patterns that it causes the market to break out when a pattern forms that suggests it will do just that. Chicken and the egg, then pebble in a pond...