WTI @ $75.75, headed for $64 - 67

[Tim Turley + 27]

Where is the $50's prediction from a couple months ago?  This is why I only use charts early and late in a trend... I've been long since $32, staying long until the mid-$80's...

[oilfutures + 39]

14 minutes ago, Osama said:

Oil reaches $76 above......is this a good time to enter the market for averaging out if I had short?

I don't think you'll find anyone here who knows other than guessing.  My stance is everyone is right at some point and at some point, who knows, maybe even JJ's prediction will come true but most people are wrong but as you can see, fading his predictions would have paid off nicely.  I wrote on this board last Friday that it looked like WTI was gearing up for a repeat of last year's move, look back a year and you will see what I mean.  The only reason I stated this was because this was the last time the MA's all lined up and I thought there would be a bigger move just based on technical trading (I do strongly believe that market's trade both ways - FA/TA).  Remember that markets trade on sentiment and both factors play a role in impacting  sentiment.  

My advice is look to the left of the chart and see what happens to price.  There can be obvious magnets on where price wants to go.  For example, the next area I am watching is the .618 retrace of the 2014 price before the drop and then the 2016 bottom.  It should be in the 77's.  if we bust through this level then we go higher, if we drop then we might assume assume this move was just a retracement.  

I do not know how JJ makes decisions but IMO anyone who provides their "prediction" should at least provide how they came of with the conclusions.  

[oilfutures + 39]

34 minutes ago, Tim Turley said:

Where is the $50's prediction from a couple months ago?  This is why I only use charts early and late in a trend... I've been long since $32, staying long until the mid-$80's...

Nice work Tim! What do you like about the mid-80's as a target?

[Raj Akhil 0]

On 10/2/2018 at 1:30 AM, Top Oil Trader said:

Between now, 75.75 and 76.6

it reached the area......

 

[ATK + 355]

6 minutes ago, oilfutures said:

I don't think you'll find anyone here who knows other than guessing.  My stance is everyone is right at some point and at some point, who knows, maybe even JJ's prediction will come true but most people are wrong but as you can see, fading his predictions would have paid off nicely.  I wrote on this board last Friday that it looked like WTI was gearing up for a repeat of last year's move, look back a year and you will see what I mean.  The only reason I stated this was because this was the last time the MA's all lined up and I thought there would be a bigger move just based on technical trading (I do strongly believe that market's trade both ways - FA/TA).  Remember that markets trade on sentiment and both factors play a role in impacting  sentiment.  

My advice is look to the left of the chart and see what happens to price.  There can be obvious magnets on where price wants to go.  For example, the next area I am watching is the .618 retrace of the 2014 price before the drop and then the 2016 bottom.  It should be in the 77's.  if we bust through this level then we go higher, if we drop then we might assume assume this move was just a retracement.  

I do not know how JJ makes decisions but IMO anyone who provides their "prediction" should at least provide how they came of with the conclusions.  

Nothing FA wise justifies further upside aside from *sigh* Iranian Sanctions.

It's pure greed and speculation, not even a move sideways or a small sustained dip down on this massive crude build and on top of that Saudi Arabia and Russia increasing output as well.

A 2.5% move up on all that, that's just fucking crazy, seriously fucking crazy 

It's not OPEC, it's not Iran, it's banks and hedge funds why oil is so high pure and simple

[oilfutures + 39]

1 minute ago, ATK said:

Nothing FA wise justifies further upside aside from *sigh* Iranian Sanctions.

It's pure greed and speculation, not even a move sideways or a small sustained dip down on this massive crude build and on top of that Saudi Arabia and Russia increasing output as well.

A 2.5% move up on all that, that's just fucking crazy, seriously fucking crazy 

It's not OPEC, it's not Iran, it's banks and hedge funds why oil is so high pure and simple

Yes I agree 🙂

In times like this you have to ignore some of the FA and just focus on possible TA targets.  It will explained later why we moved down occurred just like in 2014 when the market finally processed that we were actually swimming in oil.  

[ATK + 355]

Just now, oilfutures said:

Yes I agree 🙂

In times like this you have to ignore some of the FA and just focus on possible TA targets.  It will explained later why we moved down occurred just like in 2014 when the market finally processed that we were actually swimming in oil.  

Ugg it just drives me nuts that people just flat out ignore hard numbers like that, from a technical stand point we are overbought on almost every timeframe. Shit even the weekly and monthly are around 67 rsi. I'm OCD when it comes to facts and numbers and this shit is making me go crazy

[oilfutures + 39]

lol, I am the same ATK but I have to remind myself that just because markets are irrational that I don't need to be.  January 2018 still had us higher with RSI. However, still for me to even begin to consider shorting I'd want to see a close below the 9 DMA.  I also like look at the BB to see where the candles are closing.  Typically if they are close above the BB then price tries to find its way back into the BB. 

We seem due to for another 9 DMA touch.  

[R3LZX + 2]

Hey everybody new here and relatively seasoned trader of CL and NG sitting here looking at my short that expires in 14 days in @ $77.50, getting squeezed like no tomorrow but holding on.  After seeing the inventory numbers does anyone think this is Hunt Brother / deliberate kind of move?  Or just a normal closing gap with /BZ. I read the hedge fund comment and I tend to agree, saw those guys do this with Corn a month or so ago

 

Since I went in at $66 it has moved against me over 15%. black swan what luck

Edited October 3, 2018 by R3LZX

[oilfutures + 39]

59 minutes ago, R3LZX said:

Hey everybody new here and relatively seasoned trader of CL and NG sitting here looking at my short that expires in 14 days in @ $77.50, getting squeezed like no tomorrow but holding on.  After seeing the inventory numbers does anyone think this is Hunt Brother / deliberate kind of move?  Or just a normal closing gap with /BZ. I read the hedge fund comment and I tend to agree, saw those guys do this with Corn a month or so ago

 

Since I went in at $66 it has moved against me over 15%. black swan what luck

Do you mean closing the price gap between WTI and Brent?  Seems today the gap is even wider.

 

[R3LZX + 2]

yea I was noticing it at about 12:00 today they appeared to be getting a bit closer, I don't believe in charts or statistical analysis.  Sometimes shit just does not make any sense.  Kinda like NG (widow maker) last year on several occasions

[catch22 + 244]

On 10/2/2018 at 10:35 AM, catch22 said:

Id be looking to buy in the 74-74.50 range... its also tempting to sell it right now for a small corrective move but it wouldnt be something id feel comfortable with. A smarter option is to wait for a better opportunity to buy.

The correction should play out over the next 24-36 hours or thereabouts. Then ill start looking for signs of buyers returning and jump on the next rally... so its wait and see for at least a day or perhaps 2. Then ready for action.

Another possibility that could play out is that the price simply consolidates in the current zone for a similar period. After which brings the RSI back into a neutral zone again and the gives buyers confidence not in overbought zone... in this instance the rally may resume again from around the current level.

 

im not usually one to brag - but ill quote myself from page 1 above ^^^

now please check updated chart below now that its played out

 

ATK - you say it the prices doesnt make any sense due to inventory and fundamentals - but thats because prices in the markets are not just fundamentally driven. There is also a huge sentiment factor- and it is huge.

I didnt get alot into techincal analysis a while back - but ive learned that it does help and the levels are respected quite accurately. This i believe is because the large hedge funds and big players use the same techincal analysis tools - which is why the market respects these levels - as the big players use them and they control the price action with their huge volumes. So if you dont use the technical analysis levels of fib, pivot, previous support and resistance etc - your missing some peices of the puzzle to base a position from...

 

Edited October 3, 2018 by catch22

[Outlaw Jackie + 78]

I know, as we age we seem to forget more.  But what about seasonal trends and the prospect of a mild winter in Northern Hemisphere?  What about refinery maintenance, and the end of the summer driving season?  Anyone? 

[catch22 + 244]

13 hours ago, Keven Tan said:

I posted something similar couple days ago regarding unstoppable incremental oil price will and going to hit another global recession. 

Would you please share any further thoughts of when or by what metrics, indicators or events would most likely cuz the recession?

Well the main trigger that is looming - and many economists are starting to sound the same warnings - its the emerging markets and economies which are exposed to having high debts right now. Countries like turkey for example. Theyve borrowed alot from overseas banks and with a rapidly depreciating currency - they wont be able to pay it back with rising interest rates in developed countries. So what happens? They default leaving the big banks and lenders exposed. This drags down the developed countries financial system with them from all the bad debts - some banks may even collapse depending on their exposure to defaults. So in the end we have another financial crisis... This could lead to a global recession - maybe maybe not - its hard to say for sure how badly affected the developed countries will be - many will be fine but its whether the net total is enough to drag down the total global growth figure down below 0%.

The trigger is rising interest rates in countries which are owed the debt. The eurozone banks will be affected by turkey - not sure on the others such as argentina, south africa and who owns the bulk of their debt

[ATK + 355]

58 minutes ago, catch22 said:

im not usually one to brag - but ill quote myself from page 1 above ^^^

now please check updated chart below now that its played out

 

ATK - you say it the prices doesnt make any sense due to inventory and fundamentals - but thats because prices in the markets are not just fundamentally driven. There is also a huge sentiment factor- and it is huge.

I didnt get alot into techincal analysis a while back - but ive learned that it does help and the levels are respected quite accurately. This i believe is because the large hedge funds and big players use the same techincal analysis tools - which is why the market respects these levels - as the big players use them and they control the price action with their huge volumes. So if you dont use the technical analysis levels of fib, pivot, previous support and resistance etc - your missing some peices of the puzzle to base a position from...

 

Yeah I mean, if this year's largest crude build can't even push the price down more than $0.70  than I don't know anything FA wise that could aside  from Iran sanctions being lifted that will have any impact. Of course I think once the actual numbers come out, people will see how overblown the whole thing is. 

The emerging markets thing is also very concerning. Argentina and Turkey are getting hit especially hard, even more concerning is India whose one of the largest the largest importers of crude oil globally (I believe third after China and Canada). 

But hey if I was these hedge funds, I'd push prices up, cause a global recession, and just short everything lol

[R3LZX + 2]

very possible indeed, looking at volume is not really all that much to justify this insanity. If anyone has a Bloomberg terminal I would like to know if there is a way to see short interest on futures options and if you can post it. OCT NOV and DEC

[ATK + 355]

I noticed that as well, I'm wondering if some big players are looking to open some shorts right now before everyone starts closing longs

[oilfutures + 39]

 

40 minutes ago, R3LZX said:

very possible indeed, looking at volume is not really all that much to justify this insanity. If anyone has a Bloomberg terminal I would like to know if there is a way to see short interest on futures options and if you can post it. OCT NOV and DEC

Do you ever check out the COT report on CL? https://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/quikstrike/commitment-of-traders-agricultural.html

 

[ATK + 355]

11 minutes ago, J S said:

Oil is going to pull back 5-6  bucks at least in the next month.  Increased production, and refineries starting plan going offline, combined with increased EIA reports.  The 8 million increase today is very large yet oil bumped up over a buck.    That said usually when the EIA shows such a large build I recall the next week often shows a larger than expected draw.   I am beginning to think the API report on tuesday is worthless for prediction based on the 1/2 million build it found this week.  They were off by a factor of 16.  That is crazy.

It is becoming increasingly clear the Sauds and Russia no longer have to worry about crazy Trump barking like a chimp about high oil prices.  They are only going to respond to their customers.   Oh gee and did I mention the Sauds just bought a huge Russian missile defense system.  At this point Trump is delusional if he thinks the Sauds are all that concerned about the US protecting them.  They have been spending 7X on weapons  more than Iran for years.   Unfortunately the US is losing their relationship with the Sauds with the loud red implanted haired dog.  I suspect the Russian's will release the pee pee tape before this is all over as well.

That said today was Mo Money, Mo Money, yes Mo Mo Money on FANG and APC.  HES went up a bit but seems to be taking a breather.  I have placed my bets accordingly based on my new 4 week prognostication and verbal masterbation.

I'll be honest, I think Saudi Arabia knows a lot of the recent rise in oil prices is due to hype and speculation and they are currently being hesitant as to not flood the market and cause a supply glut. I do believe them when they say the market is currenttly well supplied, but i do know they were also in need of additional cash to help with diversifying their economy. Russia has some infrastructure issues at this point, their pipelines to Asia are already working at max capacity,  but they can largely meet the majority, if not all, of Europe's oil needs. So it might just take some shifting around of oil shipments between Russia and Saudi Arabia 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

I live in Oilsands Alberta - I want oil to go crazy high.

I trade in energy companies (and others) on the tsx and this pattern is typical bullish "support and resistance" - odd to forecast a downtrend at this point.

Rebuilding from hurricanes uses a lot of energy... plus Winter is coming! haha.

Iran has a say in all of this and no way will they be happy if the rest of OPEC replaces "their" share.

Edited October 4, 2018 by Enthalpic

[ATK + 355]

1 hour ago, Enthalpic said:

I live in Oilsands Alberta - I want oil to go crazy high.

I trade in energy companies (and others) on the tsx and this pattern is typical bullish "support and resistance" - odd to forecast a downtrend at this point.

Rebuilding from hurricanes uses a lot of energy... plus Winter is coming! haha.

Iran has a say in all of this and no way will they be happy if the rest of OPEC replaces "their" share.

An 8 million crude build is the largest build we've seen in 19 months. That's pretty bearish 

Edited October 4, 2018 by ATK

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

A good war would burn up all this... like really oil stockpiling.

USA will not use SR...

Edited October 4, 2018 by Enthalpic

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

ok still see crude to go down. But like i said i dont have a short signal yet, only that it is getting ready.

[NAPHTA + 33]

The big question after the inventories is why everyone keeps pointing finger at OPEC, while US is sitting on 8-9 million of stockpiled supplied oil? are we not pointed out to the wrong alley, via all channels, including tweets?

 See the post by Enthalpic. This environmentally extremely hazardous fracking and drilling has been a black well swallowing investments from the investors in years. They are now trying to be profitable for once. Who do you think those investors are? Some anxious, us-backed Aramco-sheikh? Long lost Nigerian princes? Or shall we look into more familiar places: The man made of Gold, the Brothers and other actors on stage somewhere downtown Manhattan, not far from T-tower. 

[NAPHTA + 33]

6 hours ago, oilfutures said:

lol, I am the same ATK but I have to remind myself that just because markets are irrational that I don't need to be.  January 2018 still had us higher with RSI. However, still for me to even begin to consider shorting I'd want to see a close below the 9 DMA.  I also like look at the BB to see where the candles are closing.  Typically if they are close above the BB then price tries to find its way back into the BB. 

We seem due to for another 9 DMA touch.  

Yes, this cycle is all about the technical. I realised this belatedly, for 10 days ago due to lack of experience. I think you wrote it as well for some time ago.

And by the way, there is no serious conflict between TA and Fundamentals. It all depends on the time span you choose. The year long trend is caused by the fundamentals  (you should also include the impact of the American tax reform on cash inflow into hedge funding as a part of the fundamentals), and this cycle is the technical Q4 consequence of it.