WTI @ $75.75, headed for $64 - 67

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

You remember 2 days ago, they was a headline about the World Top Oil Trader who said he sees prices going way up. Exactly the opposite happened. You mean this guy didnt know, you mean i knew before he knew that crude would crash? Who is the World Top Oil Trader Now? 

From 2 days ago.

So called oil Guru no 1.

World Top oil Trader no 2. opps they removed the link, shame on them

But luckily I found the link in the Bagdad Post

World Top Oil Trader no 1.

  

Edited October 10, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[Bradtech + 3]

looks like it bounced back up above $73.  I haven't paid attention today much been way too busy. I figured they would be running oil up due to the Hurricane and oilprice.com headline of 40% of Mexico oil trapped. Maybe that's for tomorrow?

 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Crude is over for now, going way down, but there is hope at the end of the tunnel. I do see it go back up after this selloff is over, some news story will need to come in though. Like, Alien Space ships attack New Jersey or Portland, or Maxine Waters IQ drops from 5 to 1.

[Jesse Man + 17]

Maybe oil will drop below 70 now.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Jesse. Quick question. Do your read the title of the threads Man?

Edited October 11, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[catch22 + 244]

So far nothing dramatic has happened - you have to control your emotions to be a successful trader JJ - take a breath. Your clearly trading way to much volume judging by the avalanche of posts you made whilst you had an open position - still remains to be seen?

WTI is still within a normal weekly pivot range and still has not broken out of the downward channel which is now becoming more clearly formed and shown on the chart below.

A swing upward may eventuate from S61 or s78 as these are common levels to swing trade from - often swing traders dont trade from s38 as the probabilities of it returning to weekly pivot get better the further it deviates from it, higher probabilities exist from s61 and s78 and many swing traders wait for these levels as S38 is not high enough probability - it depends on the market tho and what kind of range is typical for that market. So wait for price action to confirm any upswing from these levels. In the meantime - look for breaks of the downward channel - when it pops either of these lines its likely to continue further in that direction shortly thereafter... If it breaks WS100 and the lower support line - then id have to be inclinded to say there is a new bear trend in play and swing trading within a ranging market no longer applies.

 

 

Edited October 11, 2018 by catch22

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Indeed catch i do trade big vol for the acct. Yes. My goal is just to trade 1 contract at any given time, no matter how sure i am. We will try tomorrow.

[catch22 + 244]

5 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Indeed catch i do trade big vol for the acct. Yes. My goal is just to trade 1 contract at any given time, no matter how sure i am. We will try tomorrow.

Thats not a sensible approach and will end badly - you need to sneak up on profits slowly over time or you will blow your account pretty soon and get demoralized psychologically - which creates even more negative results when you trade with emotion... you may get lucky and have a winning streak - but if its only luck in play then sooner or later we all know what happens to luck.

 

a sensible answer would be to wait for proper high probability setups and trade those when they present themselves. This may mean that you dont trade on many days - but its better to keep your profits than loose them the following day or week...

Trade volumes which dont affect you psychologically. Ie - you dont care if you win or loose. Sure it means profits are small - but what happens over time is you learn. As you learn you get better, and then you can gradually increase your lots as your account grows and become successful in the long term... i learned all this the hard way too mate - just offering advice which helped me...

Edited October 11, 2018 by catch22

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

couldnt have said it better myself. do you sometimes wait days for an entry?

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

yes but if u swing,

you got to wait

for the dng

[catch22 + 244]

Yes - i often dont trade anything - if nothing looks like a high probability setup - why would i bother?

I used to trade pretty much anything and do it everyday - but i wasnt making any money in the long term - id win some days and then loose some days... if you simply cut the loosing days - then you win

PS - see my edit post above - more info in there...

[catch22 + 244]

As time goes by and you learn and you research and you get more experience - you get better a spotting a high probability setup starting to present itself... Sometimes all the stars align and you have just about every indicator available telling you the same thing, plus classical patterns telling the same thing, plus some fundamental news...  These setups dont happen very often - but when they do - hit them hard and you will make more money on that 1 trade than you did in the last month... so i simply wait for those now... patience is a very important quality to trade successfully also.

[NAPHTA + 33]

4 minutes ago, catch22 said:

As time goes by and you learn and you research and you get more experience - you get better a spotting a high probability setup starting to present itself... Sometimes all the stars align and you have just about every indicator available telling you the same thing, plus classical patterns telling the same thing, plus some fundamental news...  These setups dont happen very often - but when they do - hit them hard and you will make more money on that 1 trade than you did in the last month... so i simply wait for those now... patience is a very important quality to trade successfully also.

Morning! Good words! There is an element of a Zen master hunting an old tiger in the open landscape,  that is pleasant. I try to see what that means in practice. Your methodology requires time and oil changes direction very fast. Look at what happened yesterday. I was away for one hour and during that time it started falling and my LP was not closed (Coincidentally, Some Swiss started nuking Japs in Disneyland in another thread...). Too many distractions to stay calm!

 So, if speed and pace are important. Then that should be translated to a manageable timeframe.  Timeframe for a trade would then be 1-3 days maximum? In such a perspective, I will have enough time to check my EMA, RSI and the chart itself before entering a position that may or may not last more than 4 hours. Am I getting you right? OR let me check: did you open any short when you saw a new candle opening below one important support line yesterday?

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

I have no problem finding the high prob setup. Only problem i have though i get it righ many times, my acct is usually growing but sometimes taking too many positions at a low prog setup, i end up giving back even if i close after just a 20 p move against me. If i traded small i wouldnt nee to give back much on a simplistic 20p move.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

So guys, I need to make back the loss on my long from yesterday.  What do you recommend for a next step?  Long?  Short?  Wait?  $1 move up/down?  $5 move up/down?  Any specific advice welcomed.

[NAPHTA + 33]

6 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

So guys, I need to make back the loss on my long from yesterday.  What do you recommend for a next step?  Long?  Short?  Wait?  $1 move up/down?  $5 move up/down?  Any specific advice welcomed.

Dan, the same here. I am thinking about one of these options: More inclined to follow that famous adage, once employed in this temporary host country of mine (btw, seems you spent some considerable time here as well – in better days) Do nothing!

Or, as this downfall seems to be a general blood bath that impacts across sections, depending of your analysis of the general situation, take your losses and get out as fast as you can during the European session and as soon as there is a slight correction couple of hours into that session. That might not happen though, as everyone else will try to do that. 

As a conclusion then, I will perhaps take the risk of bidding my time! Don't know if I can....

Hope to here some counterarguments, if anyone. 

[catch22 + 244]

well im not sure trying to make back losses is a good way of thinking about it either... All you need to do is keep taking high probability trades and keep doing it consistently with smaller lot sizes. If you trade too big - you will get burned, bad... The size of the trade you should take is one that does not impart an emotional response should it loose. If you do find yourself upset or pissed off after a loss - the amount of risk your taking is too high - this also stands to reason yes - otherwise why would you care?

So - sneak up on your profits over a long period of time... dont try to make a million in a week, its a recipe for disaster!

Once you are consistently taking profits and making more than you are loosing - will probably take a few years if you have the right mentality and emotional stay - then you will have the confidence and experience to trade larger lot sizes and then start increasing your profits further. But first you must get your win rate well above 50% or there is no point trading at all - unless you like loosing money! Play on a demo account with an account balance the same as you would risk in real life - dont use an unrealistic figure. And see if you can make it grow over the next 6 months trading oil - i think you will be amazed at how difficult it is

Back to the real world - i said yesterday that there was no trade to be had whilst it was on the weekly pivot point (WPP) now it has diverged further down to the S78 level and its also nearing the bottom of the descending channel. This gives me 2 indicators now instead of 1. If it breaks below the channel AND goes past S78 down to S100 - its reasonably safe to say its not a ranging market anymore and becoming a bearish trend. If it breaks below these indicators id be reasonably well convinced to take a short position from there provided i see price action following through at the time aswell. Alternatively - there is still a likely possibility that it bounces off the bottom channel line and retraces back up again from the S78 area heading back toward the WPP. This would be a classical swing trade and im sure there are some people watching for this move. Therefore some big money may follow this idea, aswell as big money waiting for the break lower. So - there is a long and a short possibility presenting itself here. The only way to be more sure about it is to wait and see the live price action at the time - start looking for the strong move up or down when the price is converging on near the S78 level and the decending trendline - this will happen during todays EU or US session. Again - if you do take a trade - its better to be a small successful one than a haymaker which turns bad

 

 

Edited October 11, 2018 by catch22

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

I only lost the $1k that I made earlier in the week, which means I get your message: lucky once, unlucky next.  If you would be so kind, when you see the probabilities line up, let me know.  I'll be watching.

[catch22 + 244]

Well, it doesnt work like that Dan - you shouldnt trade on other peoples recommendations. If your serious about trading - take the time to learn as much as you can about analysis so that you can do your own. Then you can trade your own convictions in a way that works for you. There are many different ways of trading and many different strategies... what works for me may not suit others as it really depends on how you trade, over what time frames, and in what markets - its all different. You daily lifestyle affects how you can trade - if your work doesnt allow you to watch the market all day - then this affects how you can trade (it does me) so i often miss oppotunities because of that. Its frustrating at times but thats what i have to live with. None of this is clean cut is my point. I keep my eye on oil and am sneaking up on a method to trade it but im not there yet so i dont risk real money on it. I have a method that works in forex and is producing very consistent results with real money - its basically printing money for me now, it works consistently and rarely looses (90% win rate). But it only works in certain market conditions and on 1 currency pair. I need complex filters to know when to trade it, and when to forget it. As i keep improving the filters - hopefully i can get it closer to 100% - but i doubt thats ever possible...

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Dan you went long WTI yesterday, after i have been saying for 2 weeks WTI is going to the high 60s? That means you place no value on my calls? Ok.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Dan i am dissapointed, trying to help you, and you go in the wrong direction. You second guessed my call.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

I think at this point though i was planning on telling you guys when the wti will reverse back up, i do believe you will need to figure it out by yourself, as catch says dont listen to anyone, so i will help him out, so that you wont need to listen to my advice when i see the bottom of this move.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

13 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Dan you went long WTI yesterday, after i have been saying for 2 weeks WTI is going to the high 60s? That means you place no value on my calls? Ok.

Mistakes do happen and I am actively trading all the time.  Lost $1k on the long.  Still time to make money on further down moves, further up moves and then finally the main down moves.  I usually agree with your directional comments, but making a decision on when to get in is the tough call.  Keep talking JJ, I do listen, even if I make the wrong decision from time to time.  Catch gives great advice also and adds illustrations to help visualize what he's talking about.  I think you both bring value to the table.

[Robert Ziegler + 121]

30 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

I think at this point though i was planning on telling you guys when the wti will reverse back up, i do believe you will need to figure it out by yourself, as catch says dont listen to anyone, so i will help him out, so that you wont need to listen to my advice when i see the bottom of this move.

JJ, As I said last time in a similar situation, I am very much listening what you have to say. Just remember, there is always the silent majority (Otherwise Hillary would be president).

[catch22 + 244]

see how the market is respecting the channel - the big money can see the same patterns on their charts... its trying to turn and bounce off the lower channel and S78 confluence - but its having some trouble - see there is confusion in the price action - still no trade to be had at the moment this screenshot is taken. You have to continue to wait until you see the clean bounce high or break low, if you want the higher probability setup- then take the position. yes it means you dont get the full range of the move - but its better to get a part of it reliably than getting it wrong...