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turbguy

Recent Ukrainian Targeting on Russian refineries??

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https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/02/world/europe/russia-ukraine-drone-strike.html?ugrp=m&unlocked_article_code=1.hk0.3k7x.tUY_VBGBFfSV&smid=url-share

 

Ukraine seems to be targeting oil refineries, not crude oil pipelines, not petroleum storage sites.

Why?

(1) Crude oil pipelines can be repaired fairly quickly.

(2) Crude oil transported on pipelines for export is hereby not disrupted. This is important as such disruption would increase crude prices internationally, damaging the economies of Ukraine's allies. Higher international oil prices would likely benefit Russia more than lower export oil volume would hurt Russia - Russia would come out ahead.

(3) Refineries, on the other hand, refine crude oil into it's various fractions: gasoline, diesel, kerosene, etc. Russia, by and large, does not export these refined products to other countries - these are primarily for the domestic Russian market. Putin's war machine - which means Russia - is the primary target. Putin voters are "collateral damage."

(4) The Ukrainians are pinpoint targeting the refinery fractioning columns - not the refined petroleum storage bins. Why? Well - the columns are manufactured in the West (largely South Korea), and are under sanctions - they will be most difficult for Russia to replace. Most difficult for Russia to replace . Tears well in my eyes.

(5) Russia will now have export more crude to pay for importing refined petroleum products. It's happening as we speak. Spending more rubles on imported refined petroleum products instead of on arms.

(6) Don't ever mess with a Ukrainian.

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I would say, a very good strategy. Struct the Russian Nazi's where it causes pain. Ukraine is still trying to keep status quo, but they loose land to Russia. Fortunately with very slow pace , lets say 100 sq km a month. It is not changin the whole Ukraine strategy but still Russia has strategic initiative.

 

 

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