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China deletes leaked stats showing plunging birth rate for 2023

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https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/china-birth-rates-plunge-12272023160425.html

The linked article points out that China's statistics agency (briefly) reported 7.88 million births in 2023. This is down from (presumably) 9.5 million births in 2022. These stats were deleted and a 'final' number of 9.05 million was released at a later date.

If the original estimate was more accurate and births decline by another 1.4 million in 2024 the number of babies born in 2024 would be around 6.4 million.

If they decline again by 1.4 million in 2025 the number of babies born in that year will be 5 million even.

If they decline again by 1.4 million in 2026 the number born in that year will be around 3.6 million.

The number of babies born in the US for each of the last three years has been around 3.6 million.

China may very well confront a demographic situation where its population of working age people 'converges' on the working age population of the US, although this could be another 20 years out. 9 million times a life expectancy of 78 years is 700 million, which is less than the present combined population of the US and the EU.

Whether this 'baby bust' plays out as described above or not depends on how the CCP views the value of the lives of its citizens. Western media tends to portray the CCP as being careless with human life. Chinese citizens may or may not perceive their government in a similar light. Declining birthrates might well be a combination of physical ability to have children, economic resources to care for them, and a perception that value of the life of a common citizen is insignificant.

 

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2 hours ago, Meredith Poor said:

https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/china-birth-rates-plunge-12272023160425.html

The linked article points out that China's statistics agency (briefly) reported 7.88 million births in 2023. This is down from (presumably) 9.5 million births in 2022. These stats were deleted and a 'final' number of 9.05 million was released at a later date.

If the original estimate was more accurate and births decline by another 1.4 million in 2024 the number of babies born in 2024 would be around 6.4 million.

If they decline again by 1.4 million in 2025 the number of babies born in that year will be 5 million even.

If they decline again by 1.4 million in 2026 the number born in that year will be around 3.6 million.

The number of babies born in the US for each of the last three years has been around 3.6 million.

China may very well confront a demographic situation where its population of working age people 'converges' on the working age population of the US, although this could be another 20 years out. 9 million times a life expectancy of 78 years is 700 million, which is less than the present combined population of the US and the EU.

Whether this 'baby bust' plays out as described above or not depends on how the CCP views the value of the lives of its citizens. Western media tends to portray the CCP as being careless with human life. Chinese citizens may or may not perceive their government in a similar light. Declining birthrates might well be a combination of physical ability to have children, economic resources to care for them, and a perception that value of the life of sa common citizen is insignificant.

 

China probably needs to take a break from population growth. 

It has been a common scenario in drama or movie produced by China that 

1. It is stressful to be a student in China. Bully cases increase drastically over the years. Policy has been made to address this issue.

2. Upon graduation, job opportunity is another stressful factor. Party members with parent(s) as government servants, or entrepreneurs, would have easier transition. Farming families would have graduate children trying to improve existing methods. For the majority, it might not be easy in a nepotism society.

 

Same with Europe, other western countries, developed  and developing countries. Owing to high tax, high costs of living, high competition, mentally ill population has been growing but overlooked. This population could also be found in the rich, offsprings of the rich, or those individuals and families members with much power at hands. Our tolerance and indifference have encouraged them to be despicable, inhumane, shameless, without remorse. Because of them, justice, ability to do the right thing, ability to make sensical judgement in others, are obscured. Without them, formerly blinded shall see; formerly deafened shall hear; formerly muted shall speak...

 

Therefore, if there is a gap of 20 years, or more, between previous baby boom and the coming one, the pressure would probably be reduced. No need to fight too hard for places in schools, in society. There is enough space for everyone to breath comfortably, shall the rate of child birth is at minimum during the gap.

Although there might be pro and cons in this method, it is still worth a try. 

Edited by specinho
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(edited)

Quote

The linked article points out that China's statistics agency (briefly) reported 7.88 million births in 2023. This is down from (presumably) 9.5 million births in 2022. These stats were deleted and a 'final' number of 9.05 million was released at a later date.

If the original estimate was more accurate and births decline by another 1.4 million in 2024 the number of babies born in 2024 would be around 6.4 million.

If they decline again by 1.4 million in 2025 the number of babies born in that year will be 5 million even.

If they decline again by 1.4 million in 2026 the number born in that year will be around 3.6 million.

The number of babies born in the US for each of the last three years has been around 3.6 million.

China may very well confront a demographic situation where its population of working age people 'converges' on the working age population of the US, although this could be another 20 years out. 9 million times a life expectancy of 78 years is 700 million, which is less than the present combined population of the US and the EU.

Whether this 'baby bust' plays out as described above or not depends on how the CCP views the value of the lives of its citizens. Western media tends to portray the CCP as being careless with human life. Chinese citizens may or may not perceive their government in a similar light. Declining birthrates might well be a combination of physical ability to have children, economic resources to care for them, and a perception that value of the life of a common citizen is insignificant. Watch more Vietnamese woman on https://phima1d.com/

 

I recently heard an intriguing story from a female coworker of mine in China. She mentioned that it's customary here not to reveal the gender of the baby before birth to prevent gender-based abortions, particularly of baby girls. However, my friend added that if you have connections in the hospital or are willing to pay, you can obtain this confidential information. This practice might contribute to the persistently skewed birth rates, which remain unnaturally imbalanced.

Edited by mrrobot1994

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On 5/18/2024 at 1:07 AM, specinho said:

China probably needs to take a break from population growth. 

It has been a common scenario in drama or movie produced by China that 

1. It is stressful to be a student in China. Bully cases increase drastically over the years. Policy has been made to address this issue.

2. Upon graduation, job opportunity is another stressful factor. Party members with parent(s) as government servants, or entrepreneurs, would have easier transition. Farming families would have graduate children trying to improve existing methods. For the majority, it might not be easy in a nepotism society.

 

Same with Europe, other western countries, developed  and developing countries. Owing to high tax, high costs of living, high competition, mentally ill population has been growing but overlooked. This population could also be found in the rich, offsprings of the rich, or those individuals and families members with much power at hands. Our tolerance and indifference have encouraged them to be despicable, inhumane, shameless, without remorse. Because of them, justice, ability to do the right thing, ability to make sensical judgement in others, are obscured. Without them, formerly blinded shall see; formerly deafened shall hear; formerly muted shall speak...

 

Therefore, if there is a gap of 20 years, or more, between previous baby boom and the coming one, the pressure would probably be reduced. No need to fight too hard for places in schools, in society. There is enough space for everyone to breath comfortably, shall the rate of child birth is at minimum during the gap.

Although there might be pro and cons in this method, it is still worth a try. 

Nations die when the population decreases. There are some nations so small that they have no room for growth. That is an exception. Legal immigration is the solution but illegal immigration benefits the capitalists who rely on low pay for their employees to make their desired profit margins. Hotels are one example. I have been to many hotels where the employees speak no English. There are many other such industries including in construction etc. 

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On 6/10/2024 at 4:30 AM, Ron Wagner said:

Nations die when the population decreases. There are some nations so small that they have no room for growth. That is an exception. Legal immigration is the solution but illegal immigration benefits the capitalists who rely on low pay for their employees to make their desired profit margins. Hotels are one example. I have been to many hotels where the employees speak no English. There are many other such industries including in construction etc. 

I'm not certain to be fully agree...

1. How much do we need to develop a country to consider enough?

- old concept might have been " the more, the merrier". From the west to the east, everyone believes so.

- Prosperity brings in job opportunities, improve status of underscored socio-economy, standing in the eyes of the world with pride etc.

- corporate style 5-year planning has been commonly adopted.

- everything is good until problems show up one after another after a few years or may be decade(s).

 

2. Issues of climate change were raised. Sustainable development was introduced.

- what does it mean? What do we need to do?

- "development that would not jeopardize livelihood of future generation"? We are trying to provide better life for them by developing massively. What do they mean by that exactly?

- Governments and officers are waiting for further instruction. None forthcoming.

 

From here, we can deduce that money/wealth and prosperity have been the focus. They do not know what else they could do to change lives.

Bringing in immigrants ( legal and none legal) might have created social problems, especially from the illegal. Those that you have encountered and mentioned might be part of the problems.

Corporate planning style is probably not suitable to be used by a country (mentioned this in an online course "town shed planning and development policy" offered by UN or world bank. Can not remember all but roughly):

a) a company might have fixed personnel after some times. A country has more dynamic, and for some drastic, population change in comparison.

b) a company has only one focus: generate growing profit sustainably. But for a country, there are many other focal points, expenses that need to be addressed

c) in a company, the structure is simpler. Any adjustment to plan can be done at ease.

For a country, it gets complicated. Short sighted leader(s) and representatives will bring the whole country down unbeknowingly or worse, proudly so. At least his name is recorded in the history book.

 

Hence, a nation might not cease to exist shall it has a break in growing population. It is all in setting aims, drawing plans, executing for the best outcome or max benefit. Not following standard operating procedure or what everyone else is doing, like all leaders are currently doing.

 

They need to know what they are doing to bring effective outcome. Shooting blindly with the majority of crowd hoping to get lucky is probably  the worst form of leadership...

Edited by specinho

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