WTI @ $56.46 - Going to ???

(edited)

Well guys.  Here's your very own new thread, starting from where we are today.  Let us have your thoughts, predictions, factors, charts, fundamentals, political insights as to the effect on prices.  Everything you think is relevant, or what you think is not relevant.   Everything goes!

Edited by Dan Warnick
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Already down to 56.04!  Up, down, sideways?  This pony can really buck right now.

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(edited)

India Ready To Import More U.S. Oil And Gas

Speaking after a meeting between India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi and U.S. Vice President Mike Pence on the sidelines of an ASEAN summit in Singapore, Gokhale said, commenting on the topics discussed:

“There was a lot of discussion on energy, this is a new sector in the Indo-US relations. We have begun importing oil & gas from United States.”

“It is expected to be valued about $4 billion this year and we expressed our readiness to import more oil and more gas from the United States as a way of expanding our trade,” Gokhale added.

Edited by Dan Warnick
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Gonna keep sinking.  My prediction.  $27 bucks?

NOTE:  Nothing I say should be taken as investment advice.  Anybody who risks his cash on my ideas is a total fool. 

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6 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

Gonna keep sinking.  My prediction.  $27 bucks?

NOTE:  Nothing I say should be taken as investment advice.  Anybody who risks his cash on my ideas is a total fool. 

Haha I think you have solid ideas, but you view things more longterm. Call it a difference in time frames and therefore perspective lol

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9 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

Yes, I saw a related headline yesterday afternoon, and it made me chuckle.  Trump's tweets + U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil do indeed seem to have an effect.

While Iranian oil will not really come off the market, just shifting from regular markets to black markets and to new EU special auctions without USD, the nuisance factor can't be ignored.  Seems that India is throwing in the towel and just said screw it to the hassle, we'll buy less Iranian oil and more U.S. oil.

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31 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Yes, I saw a related headline yesterday afternoon, and it made me chuckle.  Trump's tweets + U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil do indeed seem to have an effect.

While Iranian oil will not really come off the market, just shifting from regular markets to black markets and to new EU special auctions without USD, the nuisance factor can't be ignored.  Seems that India is throwing in the towel and just said screw it to the hassle, we'll buy less Iranian oil and more U.S. oil.

STOP sending your U.S. Government officials for meetings in Delhi!  Please!

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(edited)

I dont see a direction from here... its fallen far enough that sellers will not be willing to offer it much lower - but rather keep it in their storage facilities until the price stabilizes. If sellers are not willing to offer it lower - the market price can not move lower.

After a downward move like this - bulls will lack conviction without something significant in terms of fundamentals or geopolitical news to sink their teeth into to start a rally in earnest.

Therefore without a solid reason for sellers to offer lower or buyers to come out in force - price is most likely to hover and track more or less sideways tho bouncing up and down like a yoyo in the mid $50`s for a period until something in the above changes... sorry i cant offer something more explosive from a crystal ball :)

Edited by catch22

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2 minutes ago, catch22 said:

I dont see a direction from here... its fallen far enough that sellers will not be willing to offer it much lower - but rather keep it in their storage facilities until the price stabilizes. If sellers are not willing to offer it lower - the market price can not move lower.

After a downward move like this - bulls will lack conviction without something significant in terms of fundamentals or geopolitical news to sink their teeth into to start a rally in earnest.

Therefore without a solid reason for sellers to offer lower or buyers to come out in force - price is most likely to hover and track more or less sideways around current levels for a period until something in the above changes... sorry i cant offer something more explosive from a crystal ball :)

What if we continue seeing build after build? Surely the oversupply will result in lower moves, maybe not right this second, but over time

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correct - lower is possible should that happen and nothing else @ATK - but seeing build after build takes time - weekly reports etc... im referring to the nearer term - say over the next week or so.

Longer term - i dont like to get involved in that as alot can happen besides the fundamentals of simple inventory numbers. Theres geopolitical risks, broader market sentiment, trade talks, g20 summit, saudi war in Yemen gaining some attention now, Iran (quiet for now), other wars break out...  many many things can happen in the longer term which is why its really pointless trying to predict it with any accuracy in the longer term. If it were that simple we would all be rich...

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(edited)

7 minutes ago, catch22 said:

correct - lower is possible should that happen and nothing else @ATK - but seeing build after build takes time - weekly reports etc... im referring to the nearer term - say over the next week or so.

Longer term - i dont like to get involved in that as alot can happen besides the fundamentals of simple inventory numbers. Theres geopolitical risks, broader market sentiment, trade talks, g20 summit, saudi war in Yemen gaining some attention now, Iran (quiet for now), other wars break out...  many many things can happen in the longer term which is why its really pointless trying to predict it with any accuracy in the longer term. If it were that simple we would all be rich...

I agree, perfect example would be if you bought calls for November back in July. People's mentality would be that the sanctions would push oil higher at the time based on that one piece of information alone, but as time went on, a myriad of fundamentals/info came out putting that whole notion into question and changing course quickly. That's why at most I look out two weeks at a time, anything past that is pure guess work.

Edited by ATK

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I think there is a very real threat that OPEC, and the KSA specifically, will ramp up threats to cut production by as much as a million barrels a day until their meeting next month, and then they will have no problem convincing the other OPEC members to actually follow through with it.  They all need the money and with Iran cuts taking greater effect (at these prices who needs them=further isolation), waivers getting closer to expiry and India and others re-sourcing their needs, it won't be hard at all to come to agreement.  The mid terms are over in the U.S. and Donald will probably pipe down more and more because he will want the sanctions to actually produce a breakthrough with Iran before HIS election in 2 years (when he will also want cheaper oil again).  One may think it would be foolish for OPEC to cut production with the risk of losing market share, but who said OPEC cannot be foolish?  All evidence would point to the opposite over the last 50 years.  And threatening production cuts costs nothing.  Remember, we're talking about perceptions, how much speculators can milk those perceptions for, and the very real threat of OPEC cutting a million barrels creates another storm of instability.  The possibility of WTI back to $70 is very real in the next 2-4 weeks.  What happens in the next week or two?  I really don't know, but I'm guessing it will range between $50-$60.

How much can any consumer/buyer store as a buffer against production cuts?  Half a million barrels?  A million?  5 million?  More?  I assume it is different for each country?  How long would their storage last as a supplement if OPEC really did cut production?

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1 hour ago, Dan Warnick said:

I think there is a very real threat that OPEC, and the KSA specifically, will ramp up threats to cut production by as much as a million barrels a day

Yep, and that will establish a floor.

 

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(edited)

Russian state-news agency, Interfax, reports the latest headlines on oil markets, citing that Russia slashed output in the first two week of November to 11.38 million barrels per day.

Also in my news feed - OPEC talking about production cut of 1.4M bpd...

Finally we got a green daily candle, albeit a very short one...

Charts are showing a very flat, non volatile trade over the last 36hours... slowly inching higher but nothing to write home about... could be another calm before NY session storm :D

Anyone notice LNG went thru the roof? should have been watching that instead of oil... went absolutely bananas, heres the 4H; probably a great short opportunity but this is an unfamiliar market to me so i havnt done anything...

image.thumb.png.70112036831d7a4af0425aca6bb7bcea.png

 

Edited by catch22
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following up this from yesterday... wish i took that short on LNG :D

image.thumb.png.2c6fafd2a47626200f95a86ea3c0304e.png

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On 11/15/2018 at 12:15 AM, Dan Warnick said:

Well guys.  Here's your very own new thread, starting from where we are today.  Let us have your thoughts, predictions, factors, charts, fundamentals, political insights as to the effect on prices.  Everything you think is relevant, or what you think is not relevant.   Everything goes!

I hope you started it under the rubric of 'Trading and Technicals'?

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On 11/15/2018 at 12:31 AM, ATK said:

I'll be looking at $54.1x for this week, it''s the weekly fib pivot point. This is also based on the premise that we see another build this week

So we have a gargantuan figure....a 10 million build up!!! But oil won't budge.....what sham is this...

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On 11/15/2018 at 12:36 AM, Tom Kirkman said:

Yes, I saw a related headline yesterday afternoon, and it made me chuckle.  Trump's tweets + U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil do indeed seem to have an effect.

While Iranian oil will not really come off the market, just shifting from regular markets to black markets and to new EU special auctions without USD, the nuisance factor can't be ignored.  Seems that India is throwing in the towel and just said screw it to the hassle, we'll buy less Iranian oil and more U.S. oil.

Interesting. India is thinking long term now

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On 11/15/2018 at 3:10 AM, catch22 said:

I dont see a direction from here... its fallen far enough that sellers will not be willing to offer it much lower - but rather keep it in their storage facilities until the price stabilizes. If sellers are not willing to offer it lower - the market price can not move lower.

After a downward move like this - bulls will lack conviction without something significant in terms of fundamentals or geopolitical news to sink their teeth into to start a rally in earnest.

Therefore without a solid reason for sellers to offer lower or buyers to come out in force - price is most likely to hover and track more or less sideways tho bouncing up and down like a yoyo in the mid $50`s for a period until something in the above changes... sorry i cant offer something more explosive from a crystal ball :)

Does a 10 million barrel build up suffice as a reason for investors at least make oil drop to $54-ish?

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3 minutes ago, Osama said:

Does a 10 million barrel build up suffice as a reason for investors at least make oil drop to $54-ish?

Yep it should hit 54.6x today for everyone to make some final profit because i get a feeling this week will show us the bottom and price will start bouncing next week.

Analysis by @catch22 has always been something to look for. Let's wish everything goes according to his charts :D

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(edited)

1 hour ago, Osama said:

Does a 10 million barrel build up suffice as a reason for investors at least make oil drop to $54-ish?

Of course it adds fundamental reason... hence keep an eye on the support line and watch for the break...

But this would not be the first time oil price has done the opposite to the inventory numbers suggest - hence i often use technical analysis in connection with fundamentals and i wait for those key support or resistance lines to break rather than jump in early. In the next london, or more probably the US session - its likely the WTI price gets smashed down again, however sellers will be a little cautious as the price has already fallen so far already and reluctant to offer it lower.

I would wait for a solid break down before going short. I would not go long despite an upward break - just too risky with those inventory numbers but its nowhere near the long term descending channel resistance on the higher TF 4H chart - so there is a reason for it to go up on a purely technical basis. You would have to have serious kahunas to take the long break in the face of those inventories tho... not the sort of risk i like to take...

The price often creeps up during asian session after a big drop like its doing today, its repeated this behavior many times in the past - just ignore it. The fireworks always happen in the US session, but see my support and resistance lines to watch for breaks below;
image.thumb.png.377e192f8346c89171fb269e75329385.png
Edited by catch22
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8 hours ago, Osama said:

So we have a gargantuan figure....a 10 million build up!!! But oil won't budge.....what sham is this...

A good source of mine tells me it was already baked in.

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