The Regime Doesn't Give Up: Rouhani Says Iran to Continue Oil Exports And Resist U.S. Economic War

Iran will continue to export oil despite U.S. sanctions, which are part of a psychological war doomed to failure, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said on Monday.By reimposing sanctions on OPEC’s third biggest crude producer, Washington wants to force Tehran to drop its ballistic missile programs, further curb its nuclear work and limit its support for proxy militias from Syria to Lebanon and Yemen. “We will not yield to this pressure, which is part of the psychological war launched against Iran,” Rouhani said in a speech in the city of Khoy, broadcast live on state television. “They have failed to stop our oil exports. We will keep exporting it ... Your regional policies have failed and you blame Iran for that failure from Afghanistan to Yemen and Syria,” he added. The European Union, France, Germany, Britain, Russia and China, participants with the United States in the 2015 deal that lifted sanctions on Iran in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program, have been trying to find ways to circumvent the U.S. limitations. In particular, the EU has been trying to establish a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) for non-dollar trade with Iran.

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Department of propaganda continues to work ... This is the best sign of Rouhani's panic. Mullahs knows that the percentage of poor and hungry people is growing, and very soon the regime can expect a new protest and riot

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Yep. The Iranian Regime is in panic mode as they struggle to deal with reimposed  sanctions on their oil and banking sectors. 

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Their strongest argument is that the United States has failed to create a consensus around its new sanctions.  But, at the same time space for manipulation and robbery is smaller and smaller, and gates are close to be closed.

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They will try to find a bypass for U.S. sanctions – recently Iran sold 700,000 barrels of crude oil for export to private companies. I'm not sure it would work for long time.

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I've checked the list of vessels on the US sanctions list and counted 85 tankers. If we discard the 12 ships still under construction in a shipyard and the 9 lost ships on this list we get 64 potentially active tankers.

Then, with the tanker tracker website Maritimetraffic, I've checked for each of the remaining tanker the latest position received. Once last week and once this week.

I've found that 25 tankers in the list haven't sent their position since the start of the sanctions two weeks ago. So we can assume that 40% of the tankers on the sanctions list are in permanent stealth mode .

I don't have access to live satellite imagery so I can't say if the ghost ships are moving or at anchor. But I've checked for the other ships, those having communicated a position since the start of the sanctions. I checked the positions last week and this week to see if they are moving or not. For half of the ships the last position was quite similar to the position noted last week so they could be at anchor or used as floating storage. For the other half the position was significantly different and they were moving. All the moving ships were somewhere on the way between the Gulf, India and China.

My conclusion is that the number of tankers form the sanctions list still actively shipping oil could be between 20 and 45. But it's difficult to say if they are really shipping Iranian oil and if it's the case if this oil is complying with the waivers or not.

 

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