WTI now @50.60 headed for $41 - $34

(edited)

Could have mentioned it weeks ago, but wanted to see how many thought 60 or 55 or 50 would be the new low. $30 is the break even for west texas, so by the time it reaches 30 someone has to step in, or production shuts down and by default demand > supply

Edited by Top Oil Trader

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if you want to talk fundamental, which is no problem. Lets look at the facts. Canada is selling crude now at $20. At the permian basin they are giving countries a $10 discount. Shows some major problem in keeping prices at least at market. So something is going on, that they are almost giving crude away, this of course will lead to much lower prices. Also Trump even now when prices are $2 at the pump want price to go even lower, my guess is, if he can get it to $1.50, that should put crude at the high 30s.

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In Asian/ UK we will see 49, welcome to the new crude horror show. This will trigger lots of sales orders, as many longs have their stops at 49.80. 

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Pieiers old fund loses 200 Mill in the recent slide, not as bad as the oil god who lost $500 mill. https://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-hedge-fund-giant-hammered-in-crudes-slide-1542292021   https://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/06/god-trader-andy-halls-fund-loses-500m.html i guess this is what happens when you think you are smarter than the market, or you hire analysts who think they know how to research.

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wow so volatile today, they cant get the prices straight, no clear direction. 

almost made it crash, and then someone big stepped in to support the prices from going to 49. Lots of futures contracts where bought once it dropped below 51. This can only be someone who is protecting their long positions or investments, so its worth it for them to see if they  can get enough losers to go long.

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4 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

wow so volatile today, they cant get the prices straight, no clear direction. 

almost made it crash, and then someone big stepped in to support the prices from going to 49. Lots of futures contracts where bought once it dropped below 51. This can only be someone who is protecting their long positions or investments, so its worth it for them to see if they  can get enough losers to go long.

Russia stepped in and backed the idea of a production cut. 

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3 minutes ago, Rodent said:

Russia stepped in and backed the idea of a production cut. 

Is there an "official" statement to that effect, Rodent?  Is Vlad priming everyone for a pleasant gathering down south of the border?

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6 minutes ago, Rodent said:

Russia stepped in and backed the idea of a production cut. 

Ok.  I just saw it on Reuters.  Might be a feint?  Vlad likes to give that, what's it called?  @Marina Schwarz??  You know, that look.

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(edited)

since wti in my opinion is only worth right now in the 30s, but somehow they refuse to let it get there. changed stop to 51.5 just in case

Edited by Top Oil Trader

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wild west today. never seen crude this volatile, then gain only watched crude for 3 months now.

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(edited)

so simply because opec and russia said they where gonna cut production, oil futures went up, makes sense.  However, they cant cut yet and ti will take them a while, as more news comes out of oit gluti n coming days, crude will fall once more. This was just a fake news injection to support oil prices temporarily. We still have Canadian crude selling at $13, and wti selling At a $10 discount all due to overproduction and pipeline issues which could take years to fix.

So even if russia starts cutting in 3 weeks or so and opec does the same, oil prices will still sell off, into low 40s at least. Besides wti prodcuers are not getting very efficient and have to sell at steep discounts. 

So this was just a market manipulation ploy to try and such in some investors.

Actually it was getting prices up so they could take large short positions, and stop out the shorts, and pump and dump, maybe later or tomorrow, once they are ready to dump. in either case happy i dropped the stop to 51.5, $300 loss.

Edited by Top Oil Trader

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57 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

Ok.  I just saw it on Reuters.  Might be a feint?  Vlad likes to give that, what's it called?  @Marina Schwarz??  You know, that look.

Russia Smirk??

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11 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

Ok.  I just saw it on Reuters.  Might be a feint?  Vlad likes to give that, what's it called?  @Marina Schwarz??  You know, that look.

The smirk in Soviet? I'd be disappointed if they spilled the beans so early. I mean, there is still one whole day until G20. Don't spoil the thrill and the mystery.

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13 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

so simply because opec and russia said they where gonna cut production, oil futures went up, makes sense.  However, they cant cut yet and ti will take them a while, as more news comes out of oit gluti n coming days, crude will fall once more. This was just a fake news injection to support oil prices temporarily. We still have Canadian crude selling at $13, and wti selling At a $10 discount all due to overproduction and pipeline issues which could take years to fix.

So even if russia starts cutting in 3 weeks or so and opec does the same, oil prices will still sell off, into low 40s at least. Besides wti prodcuers are not getting very efficient and have to sell at steep discounts. 

So this was just a market manipulation ploy to try and such in some investors.

Actually it was getting prices up so they could take large short positions, and stop out the shorts, and pump and dump, maybe later or tomorrow, once they are ready to dump. in either case happy i dropped the stop to 51.5, $300 loss.

This time I will not buy what you said, JJ. We were in the same boat when we all had agreeed oil would head down from $80 range. Now you are saying oil will further go down. Yes of cours, but when and by how? 

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16 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

since wti in my opinion is only worth right now in the 30s, but somehow they refuse to let it get there. changed stop to 51.5 just in case

Looks like you were stopped out at 51.50... better luck next time buddy.

Cheer up

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giving back 300 is a joke, many times i catch 2.5k on 2 or 3 lots. But its not the money, the trade was really good, when i shorted it went from 51.2 to 50.7, so a good trade, but for some reason didnt take the profit, and that happens sometimes. Im really not worried about it, am happy i changed stop from 52 to 51.5, overall a big win for me.

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But today, the plan or goal is to do 3k on 2 lots.

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But all in all yesterday this trade that is took late was a scald short in an uptrend long, those are in and outs, and somehow i was trying to force the short into a longer trade which was the wrong way to go. Normally i dont like to trade for $100 or $300 my average trade that i take is a move of $1 to $2 on 1 or 3 contracts, netting 2 - 6k, and sometimes i forget that not all moves will be that large in 1 direction, but thats why i have the stop. But still it is inexcusable for someone like me not to get out on time, and it shows terrible control of my trading for that day.

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what is gonna happen is that crude wont hold 50 today, and then she could hit 46.66, notice the 666

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i forgot its the end of the month, so its possible that the y may cover their shorts first and bring it above 51 first

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open trades

this is why i dont mind taking a loss once in a while. i already hours ago close 1.1k in profits before the 300 loss.

crude.jpg

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in us session so from about 8 am est or so, crude goes wild and will range up and down many times, making breakdown and breakups, and its easy to get caught in a fake breakout like what happened to me earlier. There are ways to avoid it, but it requires you to watch certain things on the charts and have perfect entunement with the market, sometimes when i trade im usually on the phone, and watching a movie, so if im not 100% in tune, i will get it wrong

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(edited)

So here is my lesson for trading crude.

If you know how to trade stocks very good give crude a try. If you dont have success trading, dont ever even think about trading crude.

Look at all the big experts out there making millions in salaries analyzing crude and they dont have a clue, those guys gals have years of experience and have no clue, how do you think you will figure it out.

Now, unless someone who makes money consistently and is disciplined tells you when it goes up or down, you wont stand a chance, trust me, i have now followed oil 3 months, i know its not a lot, but i know every single aspect of how crude moves and when it moves, yes it get hit once in a while but that is my fault, for not being careful, and taking extra risks after a good trade.

However, if you ever figure out how to trade oil, here is my last piece of advice. Stick with 1 contract.

What exactly is one contract one contract controls 1000 barrles of oil or 42000 gallons of crude.

I mean even if you catch $1 that is $1000. Many times when i trade just 1 contract im up $1000, or more.

And the key then in trading is to be consistent.

You should make money every day, not one day make 500 and the next day lose 3000, thats the way the average trader trades.

But you need to become better than that and be consistent, make 200 a day, or $1000 a day, but be consistent, of course you will have losses, but keep them to a minimum loss. Get out as soon as u see u made a mistake.

How much do you need? well for futures its 2300 per contract. For cfds i dont know depends on the margin u can use, in some countries they give you 1000x1 margin, so almost nothing.

There are way to trade futures for a lot less than 2300 but for that you need to be a supertrader and they will let you trade 1 contract for i think its about $23, this is the way i do it. But its not for everyone. so for me to trade 5 contracts i only risk about $100, so its like a joke. But they make money of your profits, so you need to prove to them you can make them money. The deal i have with them is the first 15k was mine after that i now have to give them 10% of every profit i make. Since im not a greedy ....  i dont mind sharing a bit of the profits.

Edited by Top Oil Trader
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