WTI now @50.60 headed for $41 - $34

[catch22 + 244]

On 12/10/2018 at 8:16 PM, Top Oil Trader said:

Other trick is not to have a bias, so lots of times i know where the prices will go, sometimes a week in advance, but that doesnt mean that on day 1 it wont counter trend. So having an opinion is good, but let the market tell u what it wants to do on any specific day.

I love this ^^^ "the trick is not to have a bias" - This is precisely one of the key points ive been trying to get thru to you over the last few months yet you keep starting threads like this one "WTI $50.60 heading to $40-31" and the several others before it!

Starting a thread like this means YOU HAVE A BIAS! You had a short bias when you started this thread...

Many others here also ask things like "do you think it will goto xx.xx price"  etc. Essentially - the reasoning behind asking such a question, or making a statement like "i think its going to go up or down to $xx.xx" is irrelevant to a real trader. Why? Because when you take a position, the only thing that matters is your own conviction towards that position. If you seek to base your conviction off someone else's opinion or system, then you lack all of the fundamental reasoning that goes with it an how that person derived their opinion. You also lack much more information about how that person trades like over what period of time the position is held, what instruments are traded, what level of risk they can tolerate etc So whilst that person might be a profitable trader - If you were to blindly trade based off an arbitrary price someone else gave you, you could very well make a loss whilst the trader makes a profit...

This is exactly why i try to get you to post your REASONING here JJ - without that, all this chatter is just noise and its a complete waste of time.

What is clear is that you are still learning to trade... your slowly figuring out things and verbalize everything you begin to understand on this forum. Well at least your making progress, however if you think your "system" is 100% - im sorry to inform you that there is no such thing... Even the best system in the world might work really well for a period of time, then stop working well or stop working at all as the market conditions and behaviors change. As a trader you have to constantly change, grow and evolve with the market.

For some inspiration, here my Live account summary from the last 6 weeks, i have nothing to hide;

 

Edited December 31, 2018 by catch22

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Chatter indeed is noise. Finally after searching for months, found a group of guys, who claim they have a clue. I need to give them 1k to discover their secrets, from talking to them, their stuff is deep. Problem is its a lot of material, may not have the time to look into it, but they are on my todo list. Certainly they sound really smart and honest. Unfortunately its nothing to do with crude, so will have to adapt their stuff.

[catch22 + 244]

4 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Chatter indeed is noise. Finally after searching for months, found a group of guys, who claim they have a clue. I need to give them 1k to discover their secrets, from talking to them, their stuff is deep. Problem is its a lot of material, may not have the time to look into it, but they are on my todo list. Certainly they sound really smart and honest. Unfortunately its nothing to do with crude, so will have to adapt their stuff.

Dont do it... people claim to know all there is to know about this and that and then sell their knowledge in the form of "courses" or "education programs" and such like. Its total BS. Think about it - if they were a profitable trader and could make millions - why would they bother to sell "education courses" for $1000 and give everyone their secrets? Its a scam...

There are plenty of books and videos on the net which can improve your trading skills if you simply search them out, read and learn. From this - you can learn to be a better trader, but dont think for a minute someone is going to sell you their wonder system for $1000. The internet is full of these kinds of scams, they promise you the world and then send you broke...

My advise is to simply learn all you can, practice like mad on a demo account - which can only take you so far due to the lack of real risk and emotion - then start trading for real on really small contracts (if your into CFDs or futures that is) like e-minis etc and see if you can make your account grow over time. I still trade e-minis btw - not full contracts as my account is simply not big enough to sensibly trade full size contracts on crude. 1 full contract is huge even for a $20k account, same goes for LNG which is even bigger. If you attempt to go big you will get killed before you get anywhere or learn anything. Trading options like ATK does is another way of limiting risk. Provided the options contract is small with little time value near expiry and out of the money, the max risk taken is the full premium paid and you can decide if the $ value of this risk is within your tolerance before you take the option. With a small account 1 or 2 of those options is not a large amount of money to loose should you get it wrong.

Learning to be a profitable trader takes years, not weeks... you have to commit all your spare time to it, and it could well take over your life, cost you your marriage etc. i will re-iterate - IT IS NOT EASY!

Edited December 11, 2018 by catch22

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

dont do it. those are the best i have found. the reason i like them is this. if i get my series 57, its like a 7 but easier, they let me trade 20x margin. Now i dont usually like stocks, i wont to specialize either in fx or crude, right now its only crude. But i think if i can take of 3 month and just trade stocks it will be a nice fun experience, sure i will make money, and i may learn a thing or 2 from that group, that i can later apply to crude. I will say this, i dont think it takes years. I know for sure i can teach someone without 2 weeks my system, and that person would make money most of the time, right now in a crude trade that i took in asian, and its up 610. My goal though is not to be a day trader, yes that skill is valuable for anyone, and im happy i got it down pact now, especially in crude which i never looked at until a couple of months ago.

The fact you mention that it take years to learn how to trade, indeed it will take most a lifetime, since most will be barking up the wrong tree.

Let me give u an example, i have read a lot about the greatest the ones who started with a 10k loan from their gramps, and now trade in the billions. These guys never daytraded a day in their life, day trading if you can figure it out, a nice living 2k - 10k a week.

But that is a small goal, its an easy goal.

If you ever heard of the turtle traders, i read about them in a book, and later i bought the actual book written by those turtles.

some made 100s of mills.

How long where they taught, exactly 2 weeks, those trader had never traded a day in their life.

So when u bark up the wrong tree, indeed it will take you a lifetime to learn what it took these multi millionaires just 2 weeks.

food for thought.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

by the way since im a lot on the move, i use a laptop, however at home i use 55 inches and i have 4 screens some are 40. anyways when i travel with a laptop its im lost. so now i ordered an accessory that you attach to the laptop usb power source, and you now have 3 screens, will get in next month, still being developed, also good for playing games. they have been trying to do this for years and only now got it straight. other thing u can do, is attach a vr to your laptop and see the data in much larger format, however wearing that in an airport or on the plane will look  strange, but i think im up for it. those things a good one is 200 bucks. 

[catch22 + 244]

if you wanna strike it rich and make millions, its not about the trades YOU take... if you really wanna make it big, you have to be a business man and trade other peoples money. IE convince people with money to invest in your fund, and you take a commission of the profits. As the fund grows, so does the profits and so does your commissions. Once you have billions in the fund - you will have millions in commissions. How fast this happens depends on how fast you can grow the amount of money under your management.

Most of this skill is in business dealings and networking with the right people etc. Provided you have a system that works, your  business skills is equally or even more important than the trading system. This is because without the business skills, the trading system never gets the big money under its management to generate the big profits and your stuck in the small time.

Take my system for example - as you can see from my last screen shot, my profit factor over the last 6 weeks was 154. If i can hold this level over the next 12 months, then thats means an annualized profit of 154%pa. Not bad for an amateur ay? If only i had a billion dollars in my account, imagine the profits id be making.  But alas, so far all i have convinced is my brother who has finally seen enough to dump $20k into it aswell as see how it goes over the next few months,  some of my close friends are interested too. who knows - maybe its the beginning of a small hedgefund here and now?

 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

of course. to make it big, there is only one way, trade peoples money.

[A/Plague + 50]

On 12/11/2018 at 12:20 PM, Top Oil Trader said:

by the way since im a lot on the move, i use a laptop, however at home i use 55 inches and i have 4 screens some are 40. anyways when i travel with a laptop its im lost. so now i ordered an accessory that you attach to the laptop usb power source, and you now have 3 screens, will get in next month, still being developed, also good for playing games. they have been trying to do this for years and only now got it straight. other thing u can do, is attach a vr to your laptop and see the data in much larger format, however wearing that in an airport or on the plane will look  strange, but i think im up for it. those things a good one is 200 bucks. 

/

Edited December 14, 2018 by A/Plague

[A/Plague + 50]

On 12/11/2018 at 4:29 AM, Top Oil Trader said:

Chatter indeed is noise. Finally after searching for months, found a group of guys, who claim they have a clue. I need to give them 1k to discover their secrets, from talking to them, their stuff is deep. Problem is its a lot of material, may not have the time to look into it, but they are on my todo list. Certainly they sound really smart and honest. Unfortunately its nothing to do with crude, so will have to adapt their stuff. 

.

Edited December 14, 2018 by A/Plague

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

thats exactly what they say, their systems can be used on everything. however they just focus on stocks

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

truthfully their system is very complex, its blows any current bs teacher out of the water, i hate to say it, but their system is a lot more complex than mine, this is why i need to get my hands on it, and see how it works, it may not work after all, and its an overkill, but i need to see it and try it out, but unfortunately on stocks

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

last shorts i covered about 120 cents ago, certainly it looks like traders believe 50 was the bottom, sometimes its good to question what u believe in

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

i think if the rat race will hit 54 today, i will give them credit, and i will say the rat race for today, indeed surprised me. what crude has taught me, is that even if the prices are trading the wrong way, (that the glut is still growing and therefore the prices will be much lower), sometimes the rat race trades in the dark, and when that happens, it doesnt matter how much you pray they get it, its like talking to a wall, and in general if you are walking uptown, and u meet a group of 100,000 rats going downtown, it is really best to change your direction to downtown, unless u dont mind the rats eating you up alive. by rats i mean the rat race. rat race is simply a way to describe a group of people who all follow the most accepted direction without using logic

Edited December 11, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

having said that just entered a short at 52.13

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

one thing i cant stand is this. when i see the rat rice go wrong big, i always need to take a stand, even if the stop is hit, a least i acted like a man, to show them up. Had i not shorted up here, that would have meant that even i can be swayed by mass foolishness by the MSM. after all insanity has no limits

Edited December 11, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

At prices like this is when i want to take all the power out of the basket and short the heck out of crude, but my discipline is keeping me at check. so here is why i think crude went up.

Opec meeting was supposed to have stopped the slice on friday, it did temporarily a mirage.

Now I said back on thurs/ friday that this opec meeting was nothing burger due to russia and the winter, notice msm is keeping that part out. And i know why, but no time to explain.

Now monday msm told the rat race and the big rats that opec couldn not implement cuts until march.

Well that would mean we have more glut then we had before the opec meeting, that means we need to be at 48.

So what did the big rats do? they moves up the prices to get all the rat race to bring up the prices, once they got the prices up high enough, (they will start shorting leaving their fellow rats with the dead corpses). At least this is how i see them play this out.  I could be wrong, in that the big rats really think crude cant go down anymore, so we will see what will play out later today. Again if these guys can  bring it up to 54 ,i will need to handle it to them. in either case its worth taking a risk upto 52.44 after that i give them the court

Edited December 11, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

moved stop 52.52 not usually a good idea, but...

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

so happy i was able to outsmart the rat race today

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

its on days like this when the sheep are so wrong and stubborn that they cause such great opportunities that you want to short 5 contracts just to get back at them

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

and indeed scaled up to 5 contracts. up quite a lot no need to post, just need to watch it, so they dont freak out again and make it go up

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

So today was a lesson in crowd psychology.

Say im on the beach and i see a Tsunami coming so i start running from the beach, all of a sudden i see 1000 people running towards me, towards the beach, i ask them why, they say, a bull just go loose. So i have no choice i need to run back towards the tsunami.

Same here when the crowd is wrong, go with them, stay with their insanity, even if they are running towards a tsunami.

In other words traders follow the majority they dont need any reasons.

 

[catch22 + 244]

4 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

so happy i was able to outsmart the rat race today

I thought you didnt want to be a day trader yet this is exactly what your practicing?

Have you considered taking smaller positions but over a longer period of time?

[ATK + 355]

10 million barrel draw reported by API, if EIA confirms, that will be a second week of draws. WTI Could potentially test $58 in the coming weeks.

[ATK + 355]

5 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

its on days like this when the sheep are so wrong and stubborn that they cause such great opportunities that you want to short 5 contracts just to get back at them

Completely agree, a lot of people trying to short the bottom 😆

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

iys possi crude is being supported heavily, or crude is being manipulated from tanking

listened to one of the greats, he said when  oil was at 145 there was no reason, it was being manipulated, you just go with their crazyness, dont hope they will get back to normalcy, they have an agenda, just let them do it