WTI now @50.60 headed for $41 - $34

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

if you trade cfds then yes ur losses will be much smaller. cfds though are more volatile than futures, since on cfds the broker can post any price, which can easily stop you out during volatile preriods

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

i have now  changed from a short bias to long bias. Will still be taking shorts, but not large positions.

[aakash kapoor + 16]

Yeah that is true and it helps to learn from our mistakes as well.

[aakash kapoor + 16]

1 minute ago, Top Oil Trader said:

i have now  changed from a short bias to long bias. Will still be taking shorts, but not large positions.

So, you believe the bottom has arrived at 49? 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

The problem with trading too large cfds or futures is that there is sometimes a 60 tick counter move. so on 10 contracts thats 6k temporay loss. So best to do just 1 contract. Unless u can hold overnight, then holding multiple positions make sense.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

from what it look at least for December it looks like 49 is the bottom, which means we could revisit it once more. for today though im long, cant see myself going short again

Edited December 6, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

So for example i had one trade where i held 10 positions i was up at one point 6k, though it continued down later, i had planned on picking up 30k, but it reversed first forcing me to get out with just 1.4k. Had i just held 1 position, that 1 trade would have netterd 3k with not effort.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

move is now on 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

last trade for the day just hope i can get out before it tanks

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

ok this will be my last trade im posting, as u see it goes up and down,  If you dont want to take losses, this game is not for you.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Here is probably some reasons why 9x% wont make it.

As im always looking for that one teacher who maybe got it, after all i have yet to listen to all of them. I came across some guy, who says he has written 100s of programs for trading, and been teaching for 20 years of so, the guy is in his 60s, course pretty cheap couple of hundred, decided to watch some of his youtube videos to see if i could get a bit of info on his trading style.

Once I heard he uses a standard tick size for his stop loss, i realized the guy was part of the 99%. Since every trade is different using a standard tick size for stops, will get you stopped out maybe 8 out of 10 times.

So far im still looking for someone with a system that works, but i have a feeling, it will be a long search.

Since most traders dont have 20 years experience, i can only imagine they most trade far worse than him.

The other problem is, that most who trade oil trade CFDs, USOil, thats a big mistake, there is no control over CFDs, or whatever control there is, its far inferior to the futures. And if you use tight stops in CFDs, its guaranteed youll get stopped out.

But the max i have traded is now 10 Contracts, I did that once, and you can only do that when its going in one direction, during volatility being wrong with 10 contracts is serious losses.

If you ever think you are good, and maybe some of you are, become a CTA, only costs $100 for the test, establish a live record (demo doesnt count) and your stats will be published to the world amongst the top traders and hedge funds. This is really the only way to hit the big times. But should you blow out just once, its all over. So make sure u can take say 10k and get it up to say 20k consistently. I will most likely start next January on this path, and see where it takes me.

 

[aakash kapoor + 16]

6 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Here is probably some reasons why 9x% wont make it.

As im always looking for that one teacher who maybe got it, after all i have yet to listen to all of them. I came across some guy, who says he has written 100s of programs for trading, and been teaching for 20 years of so, the guy is in his 60s, course pretty cheap couple of hundred, decided to watch some of his youtube videos to see if i could get a bit of info on his trading style.

Once I heard he uses a standard tick size for his stop loss, i realized the guy was part of the 99%. Since every trade is different using a standard tick size for stops, will get you stopped out maybe 8 out of 10 times.

So far im still looking for someone with a system that works, but i have a feeling, it will be a long search.

Since most traders dont have 20 years experience, i can only imagine they most trade far worse than him.

The other problem is, that most who trade oil trade CFDs, USOil, thats a big mistake, there is no control over CFDs, or whatever control there is, its far inferior to the futures. And if you use tight stops in CFDs, its guaranteed youll get stopped out.

But the max i have traded is now 10 Contracts, I did that once, and you can only do that when its going in one direction, during volatility being wrong with 10 contracts is serious losses.

If you ever think you are good, and maybe some of you are, become a CTA, only costs $100 for the test, establish a live record (demo doesnt count) and your stats will be published to the world amongst the top traders and hedge funds. This is really the only way to hit the big times. But should you blow out just once, its all over. So make sure u can take say 10k and get it up to say 20k consistently. I will most likely start next January on this path, and see where it takes me.

 

What does this have to do with your target of 34-41$. Can you elaborate on the topic's heading and shed some light on the issue with respect to the current production cuts ?

Thanks

Edited December 9, 2018 by aakash kapoor

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

has nothing to do with it, only my observations on how people trade, even the very very experienced ones

[catch22 + 244]

Top oil trader has changed his mind yet again...

Do you still think its going to $40 or not?

On 12/9/2018 at 8:06 PM, Top Oil Trader said:

Here is probably some reasons why 9x% wont make it.

As im always looking for that one teacher who maybe got it, after all i have yet to listen to all of them. I came across some guy...

So far im still looking for someone with a system that works, but i have a feeling, it will be a long search.

 

But you said numberous times you have a perfect system... you said previously its soo accurate you were proud of it? 

Round and round in circles we go...

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

last fri had to go to walmart, before i left just did a 1 contract 55 as stop, when i came back was up 1.5k

so far today up 360.

and this is trading with almost no risk. For me trading risk is 5 contracts. But when i trade 1 contract i simply put a stop go to sleep or go shopping and come back, in most cases the trade is profitable.

At this moment i have now figured out the optimal account for someone who understands how to trade crude like i do. All you would need is a 10k futures account, that lets u trade 4 contracts. If you understand risk, and you have a good system, close to what i use, u can trade just 1 contract at a time. Even if you only put a zombie part effort, making 500 - 1.5k is a no brainer, 3 times a week.

When you see the market is in a range, or its undecided on those days u dont trade, trick is how do you know the market is undecided, that takes experience. But you dont waste your times when markets are undecided.

Other trick is not to have a bias, so lots of times i know where the prices will go, sometimes a week in advance, but that doesnt mean that on day 1 it wont counter trend. So having an opinion is good, but let the market tell u what it wants to do on any specific day.

And on the day when u read the market wrong, take your loss, and call it a day. The worst u can do is try to make it back. Since when u try to make it back, you are no longer using your system, and then u end up having a double loss, or more losses if you keep trying to get your money back.

So here is the trick say you start with 10k. on day 1 its imperative your account makes money, so day 1 say if you are a novice, your account goes to 10,200. thats good. now tommorrow no matter what, you cant lose more than 200. Once your account is negative your confidence will drop, and you will start making mistakes.

Lots of trading is staying afloat, and keeping a winning attitude.

If you practice and practice and eventually figure out what works what doesnt, it will become easier as you keep trading. but when u see your system is garbage, change it, dont keep on doing the same thing over and over. The definition of insanity, is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.

You have to keep building on your system until you get it, if you feel its impossible, yes then give up, since for most it is an impossible task, and therefore dont use real money, but just practice with demo, until u see what u discovered works say 8 out of 10 times, then maybe you have a chance.

Trading is not like learning how to draw, eventually everyone can learn how to draw. Trading is like you want to be a tennis player, and no matter how   much you practice, there are people who will always beat you, and at some point you have to say, ok i tried, im not a dummy, but these guys are a bit smarter than me, i will leave it to them. 

For me at this point when i enter 1 contract every time i allow  myself to lose 500  bucks on that trade, if i get hit, so be it. I move on. But i know my probs are 80 to 90%, so when i get hit, you just laugh and let it go.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

round and round.

I will say this, the system was not 100 last week. it was good but it had flaws. I realized what they where, and now from what i see its 100

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

well i got the first part of the trade right. question is now, will it reverse and go for 54 or still sell off? This is where, the charts are at a dilemma. And only experience can tell you what to do? suggestion?. 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

moved stop to 52, if it shoots up (possible), at least i take some profits

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

covered if i stop trading today thats 600 easy bucks

[ATK + 355]

So basically your  perfect system is not a perfect system, even though you ranted on and on about how it was and even attacked others for suggesting otherwise.

You are asking for suggestions/ looking for a teacher when you claimed to know more than 99% of all traders.

It's just sad that all the regulars who would of been into discussing these things have basically left because of how things have been conducted on this forum. 

I found I don't even need to argue anything anymore here because if I just let everything play out, the truth slowly reveals itself and people form their own opnions. Still sucks that no one really talks about trade here anymore, more just random oil topics that sometimes have to do with price but not really lol (still good dicussion, more pointing out the void in actual trade talk).

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

look you guys can suggest or not suggest. it may help others. i basically still trade my system. I my system dont agree i dont do it.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

The beauty of the system is the this. it gives you amazingly high probability trades, and it tells you where to place the stops. The beauty of this is that it usually predicts the swings perfectly and also where its risky to remain due to potential reversals. So all i do enter a trade, place the stop, leave, come back or whatever, its as simple as that. 3 months ago when i looked at the moves, intrady it was way too chaotic to figure out why, nots it took this whole chaotic crazy high frequency volatility moves, and made sense of it. So its now really easy to see at any given moment whats what.

I asked for suggestion just to see if anyone had a clue, but it looks like not. Otherwise someone would have spoken up already. What i do see here though, is lots of people criticizing people, the people who criticize are the people who themselves never off up any advice or suggestions. Which is ok, im just trying to prove a point.

[ATK + 355]

Just now, Top Oil Trader said:

look you guys can suggest or not suggest. it may help others. i basically still trade my system. I my system dont agree i dont do it.

JJ you don't understand though, the way you conducted yourself previously does not make us want to engage in trade talk with you/this place.

You pretty much shit on everyone's method of trading, tooted your own system as a for sure money maker, and how everyone should basically not listen to any traders ever because they are 99% of the time wrong.

My question if you aren't here to discuss trade or teach anyone what are you actually here for? I'd prefer an environment where we can all bounce ideas off of one another, but not one where we just like to here ourselves talk so until then I'll be discussing my oil trades over on reddit

[ATK + 355]

10 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

The beauty of the system is the this. it gives you amazingly high probability trades, and it tells you where to place the stops. The beauty of this is that it usually predicts the swings perfectly and also where its risky to remain due to potential reversals. So all i do enter a trade, place the stop, leave, come back or whatever, its as simple as that. 3 months ago when i looked at the moves, intrady it was way too chaotic to figure out why, nots it took this whole chaotic crazy high frequency volatility moves, and made sense of it. So its now really easy to see at any given moment whats what.

I asked for suggestion just to see if anyone had a clue, but it looks like not. Otherwise someone would have spoken up already. What i do see here though, is lots of people criticizing people, the people who criticize are the people who themselves never off up any advice or suggestions. Which is ok, im just trying to prove a point.

Plenty of helpful advice in the past from many including myself, DW, Catch22, Osama, A_Plague, rodent, it just largely goes ignored by you though and like I said people just don't feel like engaging as much anymore by how things have been conducted 

Hoping things move forward in a more positive direction in the future 

Edited December 10, 2018 by ATK

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

so now this range trade was difficult. I had a trade pop up, an earlier sell stop from an earlier long, i was on the phone, before i realized it i was down 200, i closed no worries.

But when it ragnes up and down like this, only the best of the best can figure out the eventual move. And its all on reading the chart correctly, and basing the outcome on probs. 

In trading the trick is this, keep your winners big and you losses as small as possible.