WTI now @50.60 headed for $41 - $34

[catch22 + 244]

13 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

... they key thing to remember is, controlling your emotions...

Hilarious! 😂 🤣... because then you say this on the very same page!;

 

13 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

...nothing beats trading crude. nothing, the adrenalin from trading crude can wake up the dead. Since i started trading crude i dont need coffee anymore.

Spoken like a true gambler... 😂🤣

[aakash kapoor + 16]

Hey @catch22, Nice to see you mate. I just wanted to know if you could tell me about the oversold condition and what indicators do you use to estimate the next step if the commodity is being oversold or not. Also, if you could explain me your general approach and which indicators you use and how many ?

I basically use Bollinger bands and RSI to give me my stops.

Thank you very much,

Aakash

Edited December 18, 2018 by aakash kapoor

[catch22 + 244]

AK

2 hours ago, aakash kapoor said:

Hey @catch22, Nice to see you mate. I just wanted to know if you could tell me about the oversold condition and what indicators do you use to estimate the next step if the commodity is being oversold or not. Also, if you could explain me your general approach and which indicators you use and how many ?

I basically use Bollinger bands and RSI to give me my stops.

Thank you very much,

Aakash

AK - Ive found traditional indicators not to be very effective on crude. The last bear run was extremely oversold and yet it simply kept going down ignoring that. the voltility in prices are also very time dependant- it never moves much in asian session, taking most of its direction from the EU and US pit sessions. This has significant effect on the indicators which return to neutral on the lower TFs when really the asian period should be filtered out.

I think price action and or candle stick based analysis works better for crude, looking for exhaustion patterns, support and reistance areas etc

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

rare for me to be long, but since a couple of days ago, i am trading neutral, so simply following the market at moment 3 long since 48.73. so about 1k now. could turn bad later, but thats what i use stops for. What i would like to do is leave these positions open, go and come back in afternoon see if i got stopped out. Yes ultimately i do expect wti to continue falling, so for me to go long took a lot of effort, but if i dont do it who will?

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

just so u know im trading the jan 19 futures which is now at 4903, much higher the dec future and a lot higher than the cfd, bu like 35 cents

[aakash kapoor + 16]

I think you should try natural gas as well, its movement is also volatile and easy to understand as well.

8 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

just so u know im trading the jan 19 futures which is now at 4903, much higher the dec future and a lot higher than the cfd, bu like 35 cents

 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

indeed aakash but i need some time to get used to gas, every instrument has its style, so would take me about 1 month just like it did with crude for me to really get to know it

[A/Plague + 50]

On 12/18/2018 at 5:40 PM, Top Oil Trader said:

indeed aakash but i need some time to get used to gas, every instrument has its style, so would take me about 1 month just like it did with crude for me to really get to know it 

 

Edited December 23, 2018 by A/Plague

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

well you see. im not a trader that trades for 200. of course i can do that with any instrument.

but when u try to swing, u need to really understand the instrument well enough.

for example plaque trading gbpjpy is complete different than trading gbpnzd, so you need to get used to them, unless ur trading for just 200 bucks, then they are all the same. so good point aplaque

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

besides if indeed trading was that easy, then why does 99% always lose their shirt?

[A/Plague + 50]

On 12/18/2018 at 6:02 PM, Top Oil Trader said:

besides if indeed trading was that easy, then why does 99% always lose their shirt? 

 

Edited December 23, 2018 by A/Plague

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

trading is simple. a ill tell you what it is. you ever see a pro playing football or basketball, to me or you its amazing how the do this stuff. to them its another day at the park. its easy. this is how trading need to be. no risk easy and carefree. once u can get to that zen in trading, nothing is impossible, whether trading a 20k acct 2 mill or 2 bill acct.

[A/Plague + 50]

5 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

trading is simple. a ill tell you what it is. you ever see a pro playing football or basketball, to me or you its amazing how the do this stuff. to them its another day at the park. its easy. this is how trading need to be. no risk easy and carefree. once u can get to that zen in trading, nothing is impossible, whether trading a 20k acct 2 mill or 2 bill acct. 

I do not notice such ease you

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

thanks for worrying so much about me. appreciate it, but its not really needed. 

but ;et me ask you, where do u think crude will go today, do you think it will selloff later?

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

nothing more volatile than crude, plaque u think crude is a short here or a long? best guess? pleas let me know before its  gets to 45 or 51

Edited December 18, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[A/Plague + 50]

On 12/18/2018 at 6:20 PM, Top Oil Trader said:

thanks for worrying so much about me. appreciate it, but its not really needed. 

but ;et me ask you, where do u think crude will go today, do you think it will selloff later?

I think

Edited December 23, 2018 by A/Plague

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

vague but it was expected.

[A/Plague + 50]

12 hours ago, aakash kapoor said:

Do you feel we are currently in an oversold position since RSI is below 30 and consider buying and setting a stop to 49.90 ?

I think that I answered your question fairly accurately? if you had time to read

[A/Plague + 50]

On 12/18/2018 at 7:10 PM, Top Oil Trader said:

vague but it was expected.

  my goal for today ...

 

Edited December 23, 2018 by A/Plague

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

im a slow slow learner, well a perfectionist so unless its 1000% i dont pass go.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

i may be a bit compulsive. i now have 3 laptops and i pc about 7 screens more in the other rooms, i think by now i have a good handle on crude. but tomorrow will be even better, much better.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

aplaque let me know tommorrow when u go long short 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

so its prob going up now, but cant stay up anylonger so will need to let it go

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

just woke up had to go long down 120 now

today wti went down 4 bucks

yesterday 3 bucks

who told you it would hit first 65, then 57, then 50 and then 42? was it goldman, jpm, cramer? noone even had the slightest of a  clue. this is why to make money in any market once you understand it, you make a killing there is noone to stop you, 0 competition, as you saw here the last 3 months that i was here. even the traders here where trying to tell me i was wrong and laughed at me, for having such crazy prediction.

had you just shorted 1 contract a nothing you would have been up now 40k

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

but i would say these last 3 months was my best experience i ever had in trading, both from the losses and the wins that i had. i now always enter a stop or 2 or 3 whatever as soon as i enter the trades and many other things