Seeking Alpha Article Oil Demand

Even if oil demand for cars fuel is reduced, what's the deal? you still need chemicals, plastics, jet-fuel, trucks, trains, solvents, ships, and so on...

The countries that have a high proportion of electric cars going around are ironically the ones with the highest oil consumption too, Norway, and Iceland, and the BP energy reports says that the oil consumption per capita of countries like Germany and France is actually increasing

people tends to believe that increasing the oil demand to 200,000,000 bbl/day is a hard task, but it isn't

We have seen many times how oil demand surges when a country develops, brazil went in from 1987 from 250,000 bbl/day to over 3,000,000bbl/day in the last year, and is likely to surge until it heats between 7,500,000bbl/day if not more... 

Let's suppose that China hits the top and it's oil consumption per capita never exceeds that of current Brazil, around 0,03 bbl/day, well with 1.35 billion people that over 40,000,000 bbl/day of oil a day, let's suppose that India will be the same thing, now you got 80,000,000 bbl/day to make work two giants, with only those two countries increasing their oil consumption per capita to the levels of Chile, Poland, or Brazil can by itself push oil demand to 161,000,000 bbl/day

And those are not the only countries that are going to develop, remind that you got the ASEAN countries, those ones with if get a  consumption per capita of 0.03 bbl/day you already got another 19,000,000 bbl/day, and don't forget South America or Africa, Nigeria is likely to have 400,000,000 people by 2050, Ethiopia 180,000,000 or so... 

with a worldwide average oil consumption per capita of 0.025 bbl/day by 2050, and a low population estimate of around 8.5 billion people you would surpass without too much problem 210,000,000 bbl/day.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Sebastian Meana said:

Even if oil demand for cars fuel is reduced, what's the deal? you still need chemicals, plastics, jet-fuel, trucks, trains, solvents, ships, and so on...

The countries that have a high proportion of electric cars going around are ironically the ones with the highest oil consumption too, Norway, and Iceland, and the BP energy reports says that the oil consumption per capita of countries like Germany and France is actually increasing

people tends to believe that increasing the oil demand to 200,000,000 bbl/day is a hard task, but it isn't

We have seen many times how oil demand surges when a country develops, brazil went in from 1987 from 250,000 bbl/day to over 3,000,000bbl/day in the last year, and is likely to surge until it heats between 7,500,000bbl/day if not more... 

Let's suppose that China hits the top and it's oil consumption per capita never exceeds that of current Brazil, around 0,03 bbl/day, well with 1.35 billion people that over 40,000,000 bbl/day of oil a day, let's suppose that India will be the same thing, now you got 80,000,000 bbl/day to make work two giants, with only those two countries increasing their oil consumption per capita to the levels of Chile, Poland, or Brazil can by itself push oil demand to 161,000,000 bbl/day

And those are not the only countries that are going to develop, remind that you got the ASEAN countries, those ones with if get a  consumption per capita of 0.03 bbl/day you already got another 19,000,000 bbl/day, and don't forget South America or Africa, Nigeria is likely to have 400,000,000 people by 2050, Ethiopia 180,000,000 or so... 

with a worldwide average oil consumption per capita of 0.025 bbl/day by 2050, and a low population estimate of around 8.5 billion people you would surpass without too much problem 210,000,000 bbl/day.

It needs to be looked at from the point of view of technology and how that is taken up. A good example is telephones. rather than putting in expensive infrastructure many countries went straight to mobile. This is what will happen to oil, it's far cheaper to go the renewables route and that means EV's as well. We look at EV's as being expensive but China and India are good examples showing in reality they are taking over markets some from the top and others from the bottom.

If seen from an isolated point of view not taking into account the rise of other technologies your argument works, but it's an ever interconnected world we live in. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0