What will the future hold for nations dependent on high oil prices.

Now that overproduction of oil has lowered prices. What will happen to oil producing countries that are overly dependent on oil profits? I can see social upheaval increasing beyond the present levels, increased efforts for their citizens to migrate, and increased difficulties for their governments. Middle Eastern, Russian, Nigerian, and others come to mind. 

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You'd hope that these countries would look to diversify, but that oil's a hard drug to kick. But the price will go back up again and they will think everything is rosy and so on until the time the price drops and doesn't go back up again.  

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On ‎12‎/‎6‎/‎2018 at 8:38 PM, ronwagn said:

Now that overproduction of oil has lowered prices. What will happen to oil producing countries that are overly dependent on oil profits? I can see social upheaval increasing beyond the present levels, increased efforts for their citizens to migrate, and increased difficulties for their governments. Middle Eastern, Russian, Nigerian, and others come to mind. 

My Grandfather rode a camel

My Father drove a Mercedes

I drive a Range Rover

My Sons will drive  Prius's

My Grandsons will ride Camels probably die in wars for diminishing resources - particularly water.

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10 minutes ago, NickW said:

My Grandfather rode a camel

My Father drove a Mercedes

I drive a Range Rover

My Sons will drive  Prius's

My Grandsons will ride Camels probably die in wars for diminishing resources - particularly water.

drama!!!

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(edited)

22 hours ago, Rodent said:

drama!!!

When I worked in the magical Kingdom the rate of depletion from the ground water (effectively a non renewable resource) was scary. Also sea water penetration into that ground water was escalating rapidly. I can recall testing fresh water wells at 9000ppm salt - that's 25% the salt content of seawater. Drinking water is typically 500ppm.

Edited by NickW
typo
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On 12/6/2018 at 6:38 PM, ronwagn said:

Now that overproduction of oil has lowered prices. What will happen to oil producing countries that are overly dependent on oil profits? I can see social upheaval increasing beyond the present levels, increased efforts for their citizens to migrate, and increased difficulties for their governments. Middle Eastern, Russian, Nigerian, and others come to mind. 

The Irony is that the USA is one of the most expensive regions to explore and produce oil, the permian basin will be in a catch 22, Brasil's new finds which are massive 33 Billion Barrels in the latest find produceable at 20USD / Bbl, Trump is backing himself and the US regional oil industry into a corner they may not survive. What will he do with oil at $30/Bbl start importing. OPEC may be manipulating the price but there comes to a point when the USA will have to do the same, but by them the USA will have lost all credibility with its so called allies. Troubling time ahead. It may be US citizens migrating, imagine that scenario?????

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(edited)

7 hours ago, NickW said:

My Grandfather rode a camel

My Father drove a Mercedes

I drive a Range Rover

My Sons will drive  Prius's

My Grandsons will ride Camels probably die in wars for diminishing resources - particularly water.

My Grandfather road a horse

My Father drove a Cadillac 

I drive a 7 liter Dually

My Sons will drive a hybrid mini ran on hydrogen

My Grandsons will ride bicycles heading for the border.....

Edited by James Regan
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3 hours ago, James Regan said:

The Irony is that the USA is one of the most expensive regions to explore and produce oil, the permian basin will be in a catch 22, Brasil's new finds which are massive 33 Billion Barrels in the latest find produceable at 20USD / Bbl, Trump is backing himself and the US regional oil industry into a corner they may not survive. What will he do with oil at $30/Bbl start importing. OPEC may be manipulating the price but there comes to a point when the USA will have to do the same, but by them the USA will have lost all credibility with its so called allies. Troubling time ahead. It may be US citizens migrating, imagine that scenario?????

The United States is not overly dependent on the oil and natural gas industries. Russia, The Middle, East, Nigeria, etc. are. They will be hurt by low prices. Low prices will greatly benefit the general population of the United States. Your average oil worker has lots of talents that will transfer to other jobs and can come back to oil and natural gas if it is diminished for a while.  The USA does not depend on specific industries but on truly free trade. Not free trade in name only as we have with China. I do not think that we should bend to the will of communist despots. 

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10 hours ago, NickW said:

My Grandfather rode a camel

My Father drove a Mercedes

I drive a Range Rover

My Sons will drive  Prius's

My Grandsons will ride Camels probably die in wars for diminishing resources - particularly water.

Water is a naturally replenishing resource. The water does not disappear once used. We need to work on distributing water to where it is most needed. California has another grand plan in the works right now. We should not let water, that is needed, run into the oceans. 

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3 hours ago, ronwagn said:

We should not let water, that is needed, run into the oceans. 

Estuaries are a super important habitat to protect.

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True, but it depends on how badly the fresh water is needed to produce food rather than defend the habitat involved. What happens is that at times too much water is allowed to escape into the ocean and when there is no water to preserve the estuaries it has not been stored in reservoirs and groundwater to save the estuaries. The estuaries are not the only thing to be preserved. 

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10 hours ago, ronwagn said:

The United States is not overly dependent on the oil and natural gas industries. Russia, The Middle, East, Nigeria, etc. are. They will be hurt by low prices. Low prices will greatly benefit the general population of the United States. Your average oil worker has lots of talents that will transfer to other jobs and can come back to oil and natural gas if it is diminished for a while.  The USA does not depend on specific industries but on truly free trade. Not free trade in name only as we have with China. I do not think that we should bend to the will of communist despots. 

I beg to differ the United States consumes more Oil and petroleum related products than any other country on the Planet, 19 Million Bbls per day. Your piece singled out countries which depend on oil from the tap as a source of revenue, but in fact its a play on words as there isn't one (big statement) Industry in the USA that doesn't in some form rely on fossil fuels. Some countries use oil as there main source of Income but the USA is addicted to Petroleum and its byproducts.

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12 hours ago, ronwagn said:

Water is a naturally replenishing resource. The water does not disappear once used. We need to work on distributing water to where it is most needed. California has another grand plan in the works right now. We should not let water, that is needed, run into the oceans. 

Not the fossil water in the Gulf states. This water was accumulated when the region was much wetter and is not now being replaced. It was a one off historical bounty that has been squandered.

Desalination may provide enough for drinking water but it will never be able to provide for agricultural needs other than niche applications (such as dairy or small scale market gardening in the gulf states).

 

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9 hours ago, Enthalpic said:

Estuaries are a super important habitat to protect.

In the Gulf there isn't any fresh water running into estuaries (other than sewage) if the sea water penetration into fresh water ground sources is anything to go by.

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57 minutes ago, NickW said:

Desalination may provide enough for drinking water but it will never be able to provide for agricultural needs other than niche applications (such as dairy or small scale market gardening in the gulf states).

Desalination is getting dam cheap, thank you Israel, and again a brilliant way of using electricity when renewables produce to much. Pump that sea water to a reservoir in the hills, which can be done quickly without to much expense on infrastructure, then use that pressure from the height to do the desalination.

Then also a lot of agriculture is heading towards hydroponics and that doesn't require a fraction of the water normal farming uses. Israel again but Holland especially to thank for this. 

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7 minutes ago, DA? said:

Desalination is getting dam cheap, thank you Israel, and again a brilliant way of using electricity when renewables produce to much. Pump that sea water to a reservoir in the hills, which can be done quickly without to much expense on infrastructure, then use that pressure from the height to do the desalination.

Then also a lot of agriculture is heading towards hydroponics and that doesn't require a fraction of the water normal farming uses. Israel again but Holland especially to thank for this. 

As I said - for niche applications like Dairy and horticulture.

I would be interested to see if its scalable for production of cereals, vegetables, sugar beet etc.

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This is how much water you need to produce a kg of the following products:
 
 
 
Foodstuff
Quantity
Water consumption, litres

Source: IME

Chocolate 1 kg 17,196
Beef 1 kg 15,415
Sheep Meat 1 kg 10,412
Pork 1 kg 5,988
Butter 1 kg 5,553
Chicken meat 1 kg 4,325
Cheese 1 kg 3,178
Olives 1 kg 3,025
Rice 1 kg 2,497
Cotton 1 @ 250g 2,495
Pasta (dry) 1 kg 1,849
Bread 1 kg 1,608
Pizza 1 unit 1,239
Apple 1 kg 822
Banana 1 kg 790
Potatoes 1 kg 287
Milk 1 x 250ml glass 255
Cabbage 1 kg 237
Tomato 1 kg 214
Egg 1 196
Wine 1 x 250ml glass 109
Beer 1 x 250ml glass 74
Tea 1 x 250 ml cup 27
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1 hour ago, NickW said:
This is how much water you need to produce a kg of the following products:
 
 
 
Foodstuff
Quantity
Water consumption, litres

Source: IME

Chocolate 1 kg 17,196
Beef 1 kg 15,415
Sheep Meat 1 kg 10,412
Pork 1 kg 5,988
Butter 1 kg 5,553
Chicken meat 1 kg 4,325
Cheese 1 kg 3,178
Olives 1 kg 3,025
Rice 1 kg 2,497
Cotton 1 @ 250g 2,495
Pasta (dry) 1 kg 1,849
Bread 1 kg 1,608
Pizza 1 unit 1,239
Apple 1 kg 822
Banana 1 kg 790
Potatoes 1 kg 287
Milk 1 x 250ml glass 255
Cabbage 1 kg 237
Tomato 1 kg 214
Egg 1 196
Wine 1 x 250ml glass 109
Beer 1 x 250ml glass 74
Tea 1 x 250 ml cup 27

It's amazing what can be grown using hydroponics and how little water is required, theres loads of information out there, makes the figures above look silly. And it's defiantly not niche, although some crops are not suitable for this process.

I was only using that as one example but I see you put milk in those figures. Another example were tech is making a product cheaper, better and more environmentally sustainable. And that's using yeast to produce proteins and protein plus water make up the 90% of milk you want to drink, the other 10% is stuff like blood serum and antibodies and so forth. You can also make proteins that are far better for humans to digest. This process uses far less land and resources including of course water. Agriculture is becoming disrupted as many other industries are. I could go on about the changes such as salt tolerate crops, symbiotic fungi the list is long and much of it saves water. My Grandfather was part of the green revolution helping to bring on dairy farming in the UK and also being instrumental in advanced cattle breeding tech's. He would be wondering why it's taken so dam long for this to start.

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28 minutes ago, DA? said:

It's amazing what can be grown using hydroponics and how little water is required, theres loads of information out there, makes the figures above look silly. And it's defiantly not niche, although some crops are not suitable for this process.

I was only using that as one example but I see you put milk in those figures. Another example were tech is making a product cheaper, better and more environmentally sustainable. And that's using yeast to produce proteins and protein plus water make up the 90% of milk you want to drink, the other 10% is stuff like blood serum and antibodies and so forth. You can also make proteins that are far better for humans to digest. This process uses far less land and resources including of course water. Agriculture is becoming disrupted as many other industries are. I could go on about the changes such as salt tolerate crops, symbiotic fungi the list is long and much of it saves water. My Grandfather was part of the green revolution helping to bring on dairy farming in the UK and also being instrumental in advanced cattle breeding tech's. He would be wondering why it's taken so dam long for this to start.

Thats a list pulled off the Guardian. 

Hydroponics has its place but can it really replace open air agriculture. Water efficient hydroponics would need to be in Greenhouses? Covering half the planet in glass or plastic??????

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On 12/10/2018 at 11:57 PM, NickW said:

When I worked in the magical Kingdom the rate of depletion from the ground water (effectively a non renewable resource) was scary. Also sea water penetration into that ground water was escalating rapidly. I can recall testing fresh water wells at 9000ppm salt - that's 25% the salt content of seawater. Drinking water is typically 500ppm.

uuhhh......... pardon me...... don't they have lots of cactus?? 

Somewhere in the Mojave Desert............https://tenor.com/view/rango-animated-comedy-johnny-depp-alcohol-gif-3361798

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4 hours ago, NickW said:

Thats a list pulled off the Guardian. 

Hydroponics has its place but can it really replace open air agriculture. Water efficient hydroponics would need to be in Greenhouses? Covering half the planet in glass or plastic??????

No I didn't pull it from anywhere. I have grown up in agriculture, studied it in various forms and have a special interest in aquaponics.

Yes hydroponics is mostly in green houses, no they would not cover half the planet in glass or plastic. Another great thing about hydroponics is the efficiency for crop to area, meaning far less land is used than in traditional farming, also less chemicals. Traditional agriculture isn't great for the environment. With the coming disruption to agriculture we will be able to feed the worlds population well and reduce the environmental impact of agriculture.

The history of what Holland has done in agriculture is quite fascinating, it's the second largest agricultural exporter in the world. Not bad for a place smaller than Rhode Island.

 

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38 minutes ago, DA? said:

No I didn't pull it from anywhere. I have grown up in agriculture, studied it in various forms and have a special interest in aquaponics.

Yes hydroponics is mostly in green houses, no they would not cover half the planet in glass or plastic. Another great thing about hydroponics is the efficiency for crop to area, meaning far less land is used than in traditional farming, also less chemicals. Traditional agriculture isn't great for the environment. With the coming disruption to agriculture we will be able to feed the worlds population well and reduce the environmental impact of agriculture.

The history of what Holland has done in agriculture is quite fascinating, it's the second largest agricultural exporter in the world. Not bad for a place smaller than Rhode Island.

 

To clarify - The list I produced was pulled off the Guardian so its accuracy is open to question

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39 minutes ago, DA? said:

No I didn't pull it from anywhere. I have grown up in agriculture, studied it in various forms and have a special interest in aquaponics.

Yes hydroponics is mostly in green houses, no they would not cover half the planet in glass or plastic. Another great thing about hydroponics is the efficiency for crop to area, meaning far less land is used than in traditional farming, also less chemicals. Traditional agriculture isn't great for the environment. With the coming disruption to agriculture we will be able to feed the worlds population well and reduce the environmental impact of agriculture.

The history of what Holland has done in agriculture is quite fascinating, it's the second largest agricultural exporter in the world. Not bad for a place smaller than Rhode Island.

 

I recall reading it uses huge quantities of gas heating them greenhouses. I suppose the extra CO2 helps boast growth as well assuming other nutrients are added to aid the growth. 

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(edited)

8 hours ago, NickW said:

Not the fossil water in the Gulf states. This water was accumulated when the region was much wetter and is not now being replaced. It was a one off historical bounty that has been squandered.

Desalination may provide enough for drinking water but it will never be able to provide for agricultural needs other than niche applications (such as dairy or small scale market gardening in the gulf states).

 

There is plenty of water in the South. It just needs to be used more wisely and redistributed as needed. Water Conservation https://docs.google.com/document/d/1s6vxrBPC_8XYQgSNK7-UuNbqsdDKflhXPDeswYFKDt0/edit

Edited by ronwagn

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