IT IS FINISHED. OPEC Victorious

OPEC has gone and done it. Deal reached, 1.2 million bpd cut, Russia included

Iran, Libya, Venezuela given special dispensation.

 

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14 minutes ago, Sergio Augusto Reyes said:

Do you know how much each?

 

OPEC will not be releasing those figures

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Figured Libya and Iran weren't budging. It's a developing story...

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Quote of the day...

Saudi Arabia's oil minister on Thursday said the US should not try to dictate policy to group.

"We don't need permission from anyone to cut," Khalid Al-Falih told reporters ahead of the meeting, adding that the US "is not in a position to tell us what to do."

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13 minutes ago, Justin Hicks said:

"We don't need permission from anyone to cut," Khalid Al-Falih told reporters ahead of the meeting, adding that the US "is not in a position to tell us what to do."

I beg to differ. President Trump has been quite effectively strong-arming OPEC

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Would you say that the OPEC/Saudi ministers have grown complacent dealing with bureaucrats over the years, so a businessman confounds them?

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Market seems to like it.

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Would anybody care put this news together with this? "The Permian Basin's Wolfcamp and Bone Spring formations in West Texas and New Mexico hold the most potential oil and gas resources ever assessed, the U.S. Interior Department said Thursday."

 

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24 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

Would you say that the OPEC/Saudi ministers have grown complacent dealing with bureaucrats over the years, so a businessman confounds them?

Well, I think for sure, OPEC/energy ministers don't necessarily have very much business acumen. Their goal is different from capitalist businessmen. That's just my humble opinion that I have no facts to support.

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1 hour ago, Rodent said:

I beg to differ. President Trump has been quite effectively strong-arming OPEC

I would have to disagree, Trump merely barks at something he has no idea of( and remember, I voted for the guy so I can say this😊)

At the moment oil is traded in USD, even tho the US has not been a major importer of OPEC oil for quite some time.

In the past few years China has increasingly called for oil to be purchased in yuan, and they are one of the larger importers of OPEC crude.

I'm not sure if Trump foolishly believes his 160 billion dollar deal in arms to the Kingdom allows him to say what OPEC does, but he needs to realize if the yuan takes the place of the dollar as far as oil trading, there goes 600- 800 billion in oil trade for the US. Too many people believe the arms deal holds more clout than it actually does.

As I've said previously, without concession from the US, the Saudi's will soon tire of this shell game.

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47 minutes ago, lesrof2evils said:

Would anybody care put this news together with this? "The Permian Basin's Wolfcamp and Bone Spring formations in West Texas and New Mexico hold the most potential oil and gas resources ever assessed, the U.S. Interior Department said Thursday."

 

Here is the problem:  you can have (and it seems to be that these basins do have) vast lakes of oil and gas out there, but if you do not have the infrastructure to haul the stuff out and get it to some refinery customer who can pay you hard cash for it, then the oil might as well be sitting on the Planet Mars.  

Oil and gas are no good to anybody if you cannot take it to port.  

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2 hours ago, Sergio Augusto Reyes said:

Do you know how much each?

 

From the official OPEC Press Release :

"The 5th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting, following deliberations on the immediate oil market prospects and in view of a growing imbalance between global oil supply and demand in 2019, hereby decided to adjust the overall production by 1.2 mb/d, effective as of January 2019 for an initial period of six months. The contributions from OPEC and the voluntary contributions from non-OPEC participating countries of the ‘Declaration of Cooperation’ will correspond to 0.8 mb/d (2.5%), and 0.4 mb/d (2.0%), respectively. "

Market first reaction is a rising oil price, the agreement reached being a better result than absence of agreement some were expecting. But a 1.2 mb/d reduction is a rather modest achievement. I'm not sure the bulls will go very far on this.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Justin Hicks said:

Quote of the day...

Saudi Arabia's oil minister on Thursday said the US should not try to dictate policy to group.

"We don't need permission from anyone to cut," Khalid Al-Falih told reporters ahead of the meeting, adding that the US "is not in a position to tell us what to do."

So then Trump will Punish Cashogi case killers?

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2 minutes ago, Justin Hicks said:

I'm not sure if Trump foolishly believes his 160 billion dollar deal in arms to the Kingdom allows him to say what OPEC does, but he needs to realize if the yuan takes the place of the dollar as far as oil trading, there goes 600- 800 billion in oil trade for the US. Too many people believe the arms deal holds more clout than it actually does.

As I've said previously, without concession from the US, the Saudi's will soon tire of this shell game.

Yup, all true.  And yes, Mr. Trump, his advisors, and a whole bunch of oil traders do actually believe that his arms deal is the keystone holding up the oil aqueduct.  

The Saudis have long ago tired of it, but find that as a technical matter, US military goods are better than other peoples' military goods.  And because the KSA feels threatened by its neighbors, the KSA wants the best stuff available.  As it is a safe bet that the USA is not going to be selling arms to Iran, in the Saudi mind, they have an advantage.   But that does not imply that they are not tired of the "shell game." 

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3 minutes ago, Udara Hemachandra said:

So then Trump will Punish Cashogi case killers?

No.. That will be left to Turkey

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7 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

Yup, all true.  And yes, Mr. Trump, his advisors, and a whole bunch of oil traders do actually believe that his arms deal is the keystone holding up the oil aqueduct.  

The Saudis have long ago tired of it, but find that as a technical matter, US military goods are better than other peoples' military goods.  And because the KSA feels threatened by its neighbors, the KSA wants the best stuff available.  As it is a safe bet that the USA is not going to be selling arms to Iran, in the Saudi mind, they have an advantage.   But that does not imply that they are not tired of the "shell game." 

I can't remember if the Saudi's trade any with the Israeli's but if they did, I'd be negotiating to purchase Israel's " Iron Curtain" missile defense system.

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I wonder if Trump expected this. Probably not. Is he angry? Will he do something?

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REMEMBER OCTOBER 29TH.  

I posted this back on Oct 29th let me send a gentile reminder what I posted:

" I have a feeling that the wind blowing the sail of OPEC+ will suddenly fall flat. The ability for the nations of OPEC+ will find it very challenging in coming future to bring their products to market to sell. US companies will suddenly see new life blow their way to fill their sail moving US into a position of oil dominance again.  Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih is trying to broker a deal with Russia to side step OPEC current conditions. Seems a bit odd to me, why would you try to make an open ended partnership with a new player in the world stage of oil  unless he senses something. While on the other side of the stage a large portion of transport companies are gearing up to build the rest of the pipeline in US moving crude from the north to Texas. The picture of puzzle is starting to be visible from what I can see. " 

Watch. By mid 2019 Alaska will come out of no where with exporting US crude. December is the month that www.BLM.gov will be holding sales for land lease drill rights. Plus having Alaska drilling rights finalized by mid 2019 the pipelines will be flowing.

 

Don't want to say it, buuuuuuut      :)       ;)   

 

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35 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

Here is the problem:  you can have (and it seems to be that these basins do have) vast lakes of oil and gas out there, but if you do not have the infrastructure to haul the stuff out and get it to some refinery customer who can pay you hard cash for it, then the oil might as well be sitting on the Planet Mars.  

Oil and gas are no good to anybody if you cannot take it to port.  

I agree although I would prefer to refinery then to port. Also I think if you drill it they will come. But my question really is how does a OPEC production cut effect the US economy. Not the way it use to that's certain.

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8 minutes ago, JunoTen said:

I wonder if Trump expected this. Probably not. Is he angry? Will he do something?

Angry? Nah. I'm sure he's getting push back from the oil industry here anyway over the lower prices. He's going to catch it coming or going. Consumers unhappy with higher prices at the pump, oil companies unhappy with lower profit margins under a mountain of debt.

The US can't "cartel", but it can Tweet. 

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SO everyone look to US companies.

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NOVAK SAYS RUSSIA'S PRODUCTION CUTS WILL TAKE MONTHS TO BE ACHIEVED

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There was no doubt OPEC would cut, the question was just how much.  The 1.2 mbd cut is pretty healthy, should send WTI back to $60 in the near-term. 

Trumps wishes for sub-$50 contradict a strong US oil industry of which half of production is shale, which a majority needs $50+ to break-even.  The election is over, and the Khashaggi thing is dying down, so KSA has pretty much tuned out Trump.

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3 hours ago, Rodent said:

OPEC has gone and done it. Deal reached, 1.2 million bpd cut, Russia included

Iran, Libya, Venezuela given special dispensation.

 

Hi, I am so happy I hope they really cut production, this is really great news for me. Thank you, I hope Trump doesn't twist their arm, they really need to cut production big time. 

Anna

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