Will Libya Ever Recover?

Just when they were beginning to boost their production steadily, another field blockade plus heavy rains has slashed production. Weather aside, will Libya ever recover its production and manage to maintain it at a high enough level to begin repairing its economy?

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I would suggest that the general answer to the question is "No."   The reason is that Libya now have an unstable government, or perhaps no government, or perhaps several competing pseudo-governments.  What is inevitable is that the men involved will start to loot the revenues to enrich themselves.  Thus funds needed to repair the economy are not going to trickle down into the greater society.

Libya is a good example of an unworkable society.  It is headed back to the days of the Barbary States, I see no light at the end of their tunnel. Ultimately it may be conquered by some other State with a muscular army. You have to wonder if Egypt will knock it over and take over, at least the Eastern half of it. 

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Not by itself the only way such thing can happen is if italy and or france see reasons to need a stable healthy libya that can produce oil in exchange for stability 

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If OPEC cuts cause problems, there will be foreign intervention to ensure that Libyan oil production is raised to 1.6-2MBPD

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😊 With men's determination in the oil sector, production will return to normal.

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(edited)

On 12/9/2018 at 10:44 PM, Jan van Eck said:

I would suggest that the general answer to the question is "No."   The reason is that Libya now have an unstable government, or perhaps no government, or perhaps several competing pseudo-governments.  What is inevitable is that the men involved will start to loot the revenues to enrich themselves.  Thus funds needed to repair the economy are not going to trickle down into the greater society.

Libya is a good example of an unworkable society.  It is headed back to the days of the Barbary States, I see no light at the end of their tunnel. Ultimately it may be conquered by some other State with a muscular army. You have to wonder if Egypt will knock it over and take over, at least the Eastern half of it. 

So first you make an invasion on wealthiest by far country in Africa because it wanted to create drahma backed by gold (Libya)

 You also make a revolution in only secular government in Middle East because it didnt allow to build a pipeline from Quatar (Syria)

.You also attack a country that wanted to sell oil in euros (Iraq).

Or you bomb a christian country to build your biggest military base in Europe and muslim enclave ruled by mafia at the same time (Kosovo)

 Then you start this kind of propaganda thats all because of its unworkable society so they probably get what they deserved. Doesnt matter they as Libya under Gaddafi had a quality of life better than many european countries.

Irak and Syria were  also probably in you opinion  unworkable societies so all 3 of them are now failed states.

Its all because of that and no western fault or ruthless intentions

500.000  killed in US wars after 9/11 according to newest conservative estimates and counting. Less strict estimates inform about more that 1.000.000 victims just in Iraq in last 15 years.

But at the same time you constantly attack RT for propaganda and Russia for agression on Ukraine.

I would  call this hipocrisy and also justification why not a lot of people now dream about democratization by force. 

Edited by Tomasz
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1 hour ago, Tomasz said:

So first you make an invasion on wealthiest by far country in Africa because it wanted to create drahma backed by gold (Libya)

 You also make a revolution in only secular government in Middle East because it didnt allow to build a pipeline from Quatar (Syria)

.You also attack a country that wanted to sell oil in euros (Iraq).

Or you bomb a christian country to build your biggest military base in Europe and muslim enclave ruled by mafia at the same time (Kosovo)

 Then you start this kind of propaganda thats all because of its unworkable society so they probably get what they deserved. Doesnt matter they as Libya under Gaddafi had a quality of life better than many european countries.

Irak and Syria were  also probably in you opinion  unworkable societies so all 3 of them are now failed states.

Its all because of that and no western fault or ruthless intentions

500.000  killed in US wars after 9/11 according to newest conservative estimates and counting. Less strict estimates inform about more that 1.000.000 victims just in Iraq in last 15 years.

But at the same time you constantly attack RT for propaganda and Russia for agression on Ukraine.

I would  call this hipocrisy and also justification why not a lot of people now dream about democratization by force. 

Tomasz, do try to avoid claiming I said things I did not say.  The ONLY thing I said in your long rant, above, that you truthfully recite is that RT issues propaganda and that Russia is engaging in aggression in Ukraine.  The raw truth of those two unpleasant details does not fade away into the backlight simply because you think of yourself as an ethnic Russian, and therefore Russia is beyond reproach. Sorry, the world does not work that way.   

As for all the rest, I remind you that I neither said any of those things nor do I accept responsibility for any of them, for the simple fact that I am not even American.  I have zero input into American policy or actions.  Zero. Do try to grasp that. 

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As I see it, Libya is FUBAR'D 10X over.

Too many factions, and the country, politics and gov if there is one is too fragmented to lead to any kind of meaningful stable, safe environment for any industry to flourish, perhaps besides gun running!

It may happen once there is honest and meaningful meeting of the minds of the various factions and interests within Libya, but that is not in the near future.

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12 hours ago, ceo_energemsier said:

As I see it, Libya is FUBAR'D 10X over.

Too many factions, and the country, politics and gov if there is one is too fragmented to lead to any kind of meaningful stable, safe environment for any industry to flourish, perhaps besides gun running!

It may happen once there is honest and meaningful meeting of the minds of the various factions and interests within Libya, but that is not in the near future. 

What happens to Libya's oil production if they collapse or are invaded? 

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16 hours ago, Tomasz said:

So first you make an invasion on wealthiest by far country in Africa because it wanted to create drahma backed by gold (Libya)

 You also make a revolution in only secular government in Middle East because it didnt allow to build a pipeline from Quatar (Syria)

.You also attack a country that wanted to sell oil in euros (Iraq).

Or you bomb a christian country to build your biggest military base in Europe and muslim enclave ruled by mafia at the same time (Kosovo)

 Then you start this kind of propaganda thats all because of its unworkable society so they probably get what they deserved. Doesnt matter they as Libya under Gaddafi had a quality of life better than many european countries.

Irak and Syria were  also probably in you opinion  unworkable societies so all 3 of them are now failed states.

Its all because of that and no western fault or ruthless intentions

500.000  killed in US wars after 9/11 according to newest conservative estimates and counting. Less strict estimates inform about more that 1.000.000 victims just in Iraq in last 15 years.

But at the same time you constantly attack RT for propaganda and Russia for agression on Ukraine.

I would  call this hipocrisy and also justification why not a lot of people now dream about democratization by force. 

I have to agree with you, the US needs to pull out and let that opening for a peace keeper go to Russia or China. We have our own troubles to manage, and we are going broke intervening in the ME. I think we should just ignore what is going on over there and the rest of the world, just tend to our own business for about a decade or ten.....

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4 hours ago, mthebold said:

What happens to Libya's oil production if they collapse or are invaded? 

It gets taken over by whomever has the most guns, and the most men prepared to fatally shoot the others.  

Kuwait is a good example of how that goes.

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This just in:

White House Orders Pentagon To Pull U.S. Troops From Syria

Uncanny that it was announced while you guys were discussing.

Updated at 1:10 p.m. ET

The U.S. plans to withdraw all of its troops from Syria, a senior Pentagon official tells NPR. About 2,000 U.S. troops are currently in the northeastern part of the country, near the Turkish border.

The decision to remove all troops from Syria was made by the White House late last week, and sent to Secretary of Defense James Mattis, the official says.

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More of President Trump getting us out of conflicts that his predecessors got us into.  I believe you guys said earlier in this discussion that we should never have been in Syria?  Well, Trump has decided to get out.  He is taking credit for defeating ISIS etc., but frankly I don't care what he takes credit for just so long as he gets us, and our troops, out of there.  Bring 'em home, Donald!

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4 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

This just in:

White House Orders Pentagon To Pull U.S. Troops From Syria

Uncanny that it was announced while you guys were discussing.

Updated at 1:10 p.m. ET

The U.S. plans to withdraw all of its troops from Syria, a senior Pentagon official tells NPR. About 2,000 U.S. troops are currently in the northeastern part of the country, near the Turkish border.

The decision to remove all troops from Syria was made by the White House late last week, and sent to Secretary of Defense James Mattis, the official says.

This was in discussion and being tossed around for a little while, I would say it was even being tossed around for over 6 months ...

Now how do we as Americans take this, from experience, history, facts and intel?

is there a "behind" the scene story line?

Well if you recall under the Great Emperor, there were no "boots on the ground"

That was proven to be wrong and then there were several "no boots on the ground" service members killed and injured.

 

 

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9 hours ago, mthebold said:

What happens to Libya's oil production if they collapse or are invaded? 

Who will "want to INVADE Libya" at this time? unless they are willing to lose a lot of their souls and have their folks and kins blood flow?

France is not ready for that, with Micro-Macron the shrinking "violet", Italie is done, Spain is broke..... Germany? nah

 

So there may be folks that will penny, nickle and dime some of the fields , try to get as  much as they can while they can and make some $$ while financing with those  same $$$  all kinds of hideous and horrible atrocities against Libyans of a different belief and sect and what not...

US, is not going to tread on that sand viper pit anytime soon....

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7 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

It gets taken over by whomever has the most guns, and the most men prepared to fatally shoot the others.  

Kuwait is a good example of how that goes.

May I add my agreement to Jan's comment. It matters little to the oil industry who receives the revenue for the sale of oil reserves. As long as the quality and price are acceptable to the industry, the oil will flow, even if intermittently. Look at the experience of either Iraq or Iran since 1970.

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