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Venezuela continues to sink in misery

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8 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

I sadly report that the situation in Venezuela continues to collapse into unreal despair and the country sinks ever farther into the abyss.  Two Reports have surfaced on the BBC which should give anyone pause.  One is on the unfolding effects of continuing electricity outages, with failed appliances (presumably burned out due to low-voltage conditions that typically precede a brown-out) and rotted meat being sold in the markets.  One father is seen buying some pure fat, all he can afford for his children. A woman going in for cancer surgery has to find and provide everything for her operation, even the surgical gloves, as the hospitals and doctors have nothing.  If she survives, she faces recovery in a house with no fan even, in the stifling heat:

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-latin-america-45868268/venezuela-crisis-hits-food-markets-and-a-morgue?intlink_from_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.com%2Fnews%2Ftopics%2Fcg41ylwvwgxt%2Fvenezuela&link_location=live-reporting-map

Right with that is another BBC report on young mothers giving up their babies for lack of food.   The people literally no longer have anything to eat. 

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-latin-america-45879534/venezuela-crisis-mothers-giving-away-babies-children-living-on-streets?intlink_from_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.com%2Fnews%2Ftopics%2Fcg41ylwvwgxt%2Fvenezuela&link_location=live-reporting-map

It is an entire country in a death rattle. How anyone looking at this chaos can have a reasonable expectation that the oil will once again flow and bring money for reconstruction is baffling.  

 

Venezuela's only hope is that China or Russia will come in with some seriously big dollars. not of course to save the Venezuelan people out of the goodness of their heart, but to get their hands on all the oil. 

Russia has already floated Venezuela some more money. money that is supposed to add 1 million BPD to Venezuela's oil production. of course it's going to take way more money than that and I have no faith that this batch of money is going to produce that significant of a result. I agree that Venezuela's problems are so deep that it will take a near-miracle.

I can't even imagine living in those kinds of conditions. I think it is only a matter of time before the people, starving and dying, revolt and overthrow their shady government.

@jose chalhoub

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(edited)

If Americans were to start with the Monroe Doctrine, the logical extension of that is that it is now way past time to enter Venezuela, arrest Maduro, and use whatever means necessary to stabilize the society.  

Moving past that proposition, as a practical matter there is now a huge moral crisis unfolding in the Western Hemisphere.  It is perfectly apparent that Venezuela is being run by thugs, and the people, being disarmed, have no practical way of removing Maduro.  And since Maduro has no obvious exit strategy, at least one that ensures he remains alive, he will continue to grind the country into a total pulp. 

I thus maintain that the occupation of the Eastern third of the country, using the US military, is the logical starting point. Once food and diesel fuel for electricity is brought in, the hospitals and government entities started up and functioning, and the locals have work (albeit for the Americans) and get paid in dollars instead of valueless Bolivars, the bordering communities will ask, or beg, to be brought into the sphere of influence, and the new control of the country will spread Westward until it reaches Caracas.  At that point, Maduro sees the writing on the wall and heads for Cuba.  Have a nice day, Mr. Maduro.  The Cubans can put him to work as a bus driver on the Matanzas run.

Edited by Jan van Eck
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I could not agree more. A crisis of this magnitude needs a response. I don't care what brought it about. 

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1 hour ago, Rodent said:

Venezuela's only hope is that China or Russia will come in with some seriously big dollars. not of course to save the Venezuelan people out of the goodness of their heart, but to get their hands on all the oil. 

Russia has already floated Venezuela some more money. money that is supposed to add 1 million BPD to Venezuela's oil production. of course it's going to take way more money than that and I have no faith that this batch of money is going to produce that significant of a result. I agree that Venezuela's problems are so deep that it will take a near-miracle.

I can't even imagine living in those kinds of conditions. I think it is only a matter of time before the people, starving and dying, revolt and overthrow their shady government.

@jose chalhoub

I have always said russians and chinese are not acting on pure good will not a chance but they see it as a pawn against the U.S. especially having Venezuela a lot of resources in reserves, but if both countries continue to watch no return on their massive investments in the coming years I think there will be some sort of negotiations in order to take Maduro out of power. China and Russia have been handling themselves on practical terms and geopolitical logics and of course wanting to get as many chunks of global resources as they can and sadly Venezuela became the weakest part of this. 

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9 minutes ago, Rodent said:

Yes less than 30% of turnout... now Maduro has the table set for 6 new years of a second term with almost 100% of all powers controlled... only some sort of foreign intervention could change the game here... opposition is gone. 

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 I hold it that a little rebellion now and then is a good thing, and as necessary in the political world as storms in the physical. Unsuccesful rebellions indeed generally establish the incroachments on the rights of the people which have produced them. An observation of this truth should render honest republican governors so mild in their punishment of rebellions, as not to discourage them too much. It is a medecine necessary for the sound health of government." - Thomas Jefferson to James Madison, Paris, January 30, 1787

 

this this is why people must refuse any and all attempts to be disarmed.

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@jose chalhoub

Self determination is costly and blood necessarily will be shed to rid Venezuela of Maduro.

Are common folks in Venezuela willing to pay the necessary costs for their freedom and a better future for themselves and their posterity?

 

 

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10 minutes ago, TXPower said:

Self determination is costly and blood necessarily will be shed to rid Venezuela of Maduro.

Are common folks in Venezuela willing to pay the necessary costs for their freedom and a better future for themselves and their posterity?

 

Tex:   the "common people" have been disarmed, and have nothing to start a revolution with.  It is unrealistic to expect starving people to throw their bodies against the guns of the regime just to make some point about the purity of revolutionary thought.  Thy also have to focus on their families and children.  As Rodi (above) point out, this is exactly why the civilian population can never surrender their firearms to the State  (although there is not much chance of that in Michigan).   As to the Venezuelans, yes there are guns in  the Caracas slums, but those guns are in the hands of criminal gangs, who are apolitical and instead focused on kidnappings and robberies.  Not quite the stuff of revolution. 

Bottom line:  outside force is required. 

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1 hour ago, Jan van Eck said:

Tex:   the "common people" have been disarmed, and have nothing to start a revolution with.  It is unrealistic to expect starving people to throw their bodies against the guns of the regime just to make some point about the purity of revolutionary thought.  Thy also have to focus on their families and children.  As Rodi (above) point out, this is exactly why the civilian population can never surrender their firearms to the State  (although there is not much chance of that in Michigan).   As to the Venezuelans, yes there are guns in  the Caracas slums, but those guns are in the hands of criminal gangs, who are apolitical and instead focused on kidnappings and robberies.  Not quite the stuff of revolution. 

Bottom line:  outside force is required. 

Jan, thanks for your response but it doesn’t answer my question and I don’t think you are situated to answer it properly, with respect.  Jose is.

I am trying to gauge what the folks of Venezuela really want and are willing to pay.  Especially, considering sending in our kids to fight the battle will cost us and the local population.  Yes, I’ve read your theories on how quickly and easily those in power will leave once a superior force for good arrives.  I don’t buy it.  

It will be painful.  We agree on one thing for sure.  Force will be necessary.

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What happens when the elite soldiers and officers start starving and their families are dying? Maduro is running out of pieces to keep the shell game going. He can't keep buying the loyalty of the military forever, with money he doesn't have. I don't see many options where Maduro will get out of this mess alive - the human rights abuses and crimes are too severe at this point.  The military will revolt at some point, otherwise many of the top generals may also end up on trial for the same crimes. It's unfortunate that this process has taken so long and so many Venezuelans have to suffer and die needlessly.

I agree that the US shouldn't invade to fix this. But if all the OAS countries and Venezuelan expats banded together as a unified force, I think the they could legitimately force a regime change.

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10 minutes ago, TXPower said:

I am trying to gauge what the folks of Venezuela really want and are willing to pay.  Especially, considering sending in our kids to fight the battle will cost us and the local population.  Yes, I’ve read your theories on how quickly and easily those in power will leave once a superior force for good arrives.  I don’t buy it.  .

Tex, what do you expect the local people to pay with?  

Do you expect that the local population can go into the streets with nothing more than some wooden sticks?  You already know that Maduro will kill them.  They would get machine-gunned. 

Can the US do it without losing any soldiers?  Yup, probably can.  Establish that beachhead by taking over the Eastern part, where there is no effective Maduro military force and all you have is some lightly armed "policemen," bring in the supplies, the aircraft, and the tanks,  and the Maduro loyalists take one look and take off for Cuba.  Maduro has nothing to go head to head with an M1A2 Abrams main battle tank.  No chance.  And that army is not going to get themselves shot up in some losing military contest.  They quit right then.

When the Abrams tanks roll down the main street, the Maduro charade stops.  Right then.  

OK, so I am an armchair general.  

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12 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

Tex, what do you expect the local people to pay with?  

Do you expect that the local population can go into the streets with nothing more than some wooden sticks?  You already know that Maduro will kill them.  They would get machine-gunned. 

Can the US do it without losing any soldiers?  Yup, probably can.  Establish that beachhead by taking over the Eastern part, where there is no effective Maduro military force and all you have is some lightly armed "policemen," bring in the supplies, the aircraft, and the tanks,  and the Maduro loyalists take one look and take off for Cuba.  Maduro has nothing to go head to head with an M1A2 Abrams main battle tank.  No chance.  And that army is not going to get themselves shot up in some losing military contest.  They quit right then.

When the Abrams tanks roll down the main street, the Maduro charade stops.  Right then.  

OK, so I am an armchair general.  

Jan, you are still totally missing the point of my inquiry.  Supposing you are totally wrong and the Maduro thugs don’t go quietly off as you theorize, and bullets start flying and collateral damage ensues.  That’s the cost and the payment.  Is this what the people of Venezuela want from America?  I think our friend Jose is better situated to answer.

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6 hours ago, jose chalhoub said:

Yes less than 30% of turnout... now Maduro has the table set for 6 new years of a second term with almost 100% of all powers controlled... only some sort of foreign intervention could change the game here... opposition is gone. 

Jose,

Any ideas why was he voted in again ?

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It's a mess Jan, but not big enough to warrant showing up with guns.  We were not invited, and that 's the difference.  What I took from the first thread was that they need help, but until they ask for it you're not welcome to come solve their problems

I submit this wonderful information about the US Navy Ship Comfort. and the genuine humanitarian efforts provide by the sailors and volunteers.  http://www.southcom.mil/MEDIA/NEWS-ARTICLES/Article/1700915/opening-ceremony-held-in-riohacha-colombia-in-support-of-enduring-promise-2018/   

I'm sure If I tried I could find someone bitching against the hospital ship too. (from the western world) We literally were not allowed to anchor in Venezuelan waters, had to stay in Columbia.  

 

 

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20 minutes ago, Mike Marcellus said:

It's a mess Jan, but not big enough to warrant showing up with guns.  We were not invited, and that 's the difference.  What I took from the first thread was that they need help, but until they ask for it you're not welcome to come solve their problems

I submit this wonderful information about the US Navy Ship Comfort. and the genuine humanitarian efforts provide by the sailors and volunteers.  http://www.southcom.mil/MEDIA/NEWS-ARTICLES/Article/1700915/opening-ceremony-held-in-riohacha-colombia-in-support-of-enduring-promise-2018/   

I'm sure If I tried I could find someone bitching against the hospital ship too. (from the western world) We literally were not allowed to anchor in Venezuelan waters, had to stay in Columbia.  

 

 

Mike, I invite you to review the videos posted by the BBC and then come back and tell us (me) that is is "not a big enough mess" yet. 

So far, some 3,000,000 people have fled Venezuela.  That is a flood of gargantuan proportions.  Would you prefer the West wait until there is another Syria sitting on our doorstep?  I mean, just how awful does it have to get to satisfy you?  Everybody waits until there is some target number of starvation deaths?  What would be yours?  A million?  Eight million?  Infinite? 

Or we can say, "It does not matter (to us) if every last Venezuelan starves in that place.  Not our problem.  Not our job."  Yup, you can say that - if you wish.  

When it is at the point that the old peasant lady with breast cancer and no money is told by the doctors:  "Go rustle up the sterile surgical gloves and the sterile needles we need to do your breast removal operation, and the bandages, and the saline, and whatever else is on the list, then we can proceed with your surgery,"  I say it has gone way past any line in the sand. 

Way over on the far Eastern end of the country is the Port of Cumana, with a whole bunch of roll-on- roll-off ferry terminals:

image.png.205e4827c8c3ad14e121ac4305c8ef32.png

And there are others outside the photo.  You can seize those without firing a shot, and take over the city and port of Puerto la Cruz while you are at it.  What is Maduro going to do?  He has one road from Caracas along the shore, no chance he could move army units there even if the army were the "Republican Guard" equivalent of the Iraqi Army - which it isn't.   The country is effectively partitioned. As the people in the West under Maduro find out about the fresh food (free) and electricity( free) and diesel (free) in the East, and you can bet they will, they will rush over to join, and that Demarcation Line moves Westward.  When it gets close enough to Caracas, you can bet the Army turns and Maduro is hanged from some lamppost, same as Mussolini. The American Army simply holds that demarcation Line with its Abrams tanks, not one US soldier gets fired on. 

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Same conversation as last time sir, I wan t to go, but was not invited, so I should not.  Running Over the bus driver is for the Venezuelans only.  I Just thought I'd take the opportunity to share what I learned about the USNS Comfort and the great things the people on the boat are doing.

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10 hours ago, Rodent said:

Venezuela's only hope is that China or Russia will come in with some seriously big dollars. not of course to save the Venezuelan people out of the goodness of their heart, but to get their hands on all the oil. 

Russia has already floated Venezuela some more money. money that is supposed to add 1 million BPD to Venezuela's oil production. of course it's going to take way more money than that and I have no faith that this batch of money is going to produce that significant of a result. I agree that Venezuela's problems are so deep that it will take a near-miracle.

I can't even imagine living in those kinds of conditions. I think it is only a matter of time before the people, starving and dying, revolt and overthrow their shady government.

@jose chalhoub

Russian and Chinese money will not save them or the oil. Just enough of the money will get spent to appear like they are doing something, while the rest will be stolen, just like last time.

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(edited)

21 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

I sadly report that the situation in Venezuela continues to collapse into unreal despair and the country sinks ever farther into the abyss.  Two Reports have surfaced on the BBC which should give anyone pause.  One is on the unfolding effects of continuing electricity outages, with failed appliances (presumably burned out due to low-voltage conditions that typically precede a brown-out) and rotted meat being sold in the markets.  One father is seen buying some pure fat, all he can afford for his children. A woman going in for cancer surgery has to find and provide everything for her operation, even the surgical gloves, as the hospitals and doctors have nothing.  If she survives, she faces recovery in a house with no fan even, in the stifling heat:

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-latin-america-45868268/venezuela-crisis-hits-food-markets-and-a-morgue?intlink_from_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.com%2Fnews%2Ftopics%2Fcg41ylwvwgxt%2Fvenezuela&link_location=live-reporting-map

Right with that is another BBC report on young mothers giving up their babies for lack of food.   The people literally no longer have anything to eat. 

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-latin-america-45879534/venezuela-crisis-mothers-giving-away-babies-children-living-on-streets?intlink_from_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.com%2Fnews%2Ftopics%2Fcg41ylwvwgxt%2Fvenezuela&link_location=live-reporting-map

It is an entire country in a death rattle. How anyone looking at this chaos can have a reasonable expectation that the oil will once again flow and bring money for reconstruction is baffling.  

 

So now Russia is sending nuclear capable bombers to reinforce the dictatorship in Venezuela. https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2018-12-10/russia-sends-2-nuclear-capable-bombers-to-venezuela

Edited by ronwagn

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9 hours ago, Refman said:

Russian and Chinese money will not save them or the oil. Just enough of the money will get spent to appear like they are doing something, while the rest will be stolen, just like last time.

Russia and China will get their money or equivalent back in one form or another. The Venezuelaen will sadly get nothing. 

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(edited)

11 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

Mike, I invite you to review the videos posted by the BBC and then come back and tell us (me) that is is "not a big enough mess" yet. 

So far, some 3,000,000 people have fled Venezuela.  That is a flood of gargantuan proportions.  Would you prefer the West wait until there is another Syria sitting on our doorstep?  I mean, just how awful does it have to get to satisfy you?  Everybody waits until there is some target number of starvation deaths?  What would be yours?  A million?  Eight million?  Infinite? 

Or we can say, "It does not matter (to us) if every last Venezuelan starves in that place.  Not our problem.  Not our job."  Yup, you can say that - if you wish.  

When it is at the point that the old peasant lady with breast cancer and no money is told by the doctors:  "Go rustle up the sterile surgical gloves and the sterile needles we need to do your breast removal operation, and the bandages, and the saline, and whatever else is on the list, then we can proceed with your surgery,"  I say it has gone way past any line in the sand. 

Way over on the far Eastern end of the country is the Port of Cumana, with a whole bunch of roll-on- roll-off ferry terminals:

image.png.205e4827c8c3ad14e121ac4305c8ef32.png

And there are others outside the photo.  You can seize those without firing a shot, and take over the city and port of Puerto la Cruz while you are at it.  What is Maduro going to do?  He has one road from Caracas along the shore, no chance he could move army units there even if the army were the "Republican Guard" equivalent of the Iraqi Army - which it isn't.   The country is effectively partitioned. As the people in the West under Maduro find out about the fresh food (free) and electricity( free) and diesel (free) in the East, and you can bet they will, they will rush over to join, and that Demarcation Line moves Westward.  When it gets close enough to Caracas, you can bet the Army turns and Maduro is hanged from some lamppost, same as Mussolini. The American Army simply holds that demarcation Line with its Abrams tanks, not one US soldier gets fired on. 

It is genocide pure and simple. Something needs to be done. 

Edited by Rasmus Jorgensen
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