BofA Sees Oil at $35-70

[Marina Schwarz + 1,576]

BofA-ML sees Brent at $70 in 2019, but says global recession could result in $35

That's how you do price forecasts. Whatever happens, BofA will be right. Admirable.

[Rodent + 1,424]

1 hour ago, Marina Schwarz said:

BofA-ML sees Brent at $70 in 2019, but says global recession could result in $35

That's how you do price forecasts. Whatever happens, BofA will be right. Admirable.

That's my kind of forecast!

[Marina Schwarz + 1,576]

Exactly! No mucking about with revisions every other week. Brilliant.

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

12 hours ago, Marina Schwarz said:

BofA-ML sees Brent at $70 in 2019, but says global recession could result in $35

That's how you do price forecasts. Whatever happens, BofA will be right. Admirable.

I did something similar last summer,  but not such a wide spread.  And provided my reasons for the upper and lower numbers in the range of $50 to $80.

 

Along with my endless hoping for an average of $70 oil for 2019.

 

 

[William Edwards + 708]

The most important number for an oil company is their forecast of the price going forward. Of all the numbers that they generate and rely on, how many are acceptable with a 100% range of accuracy? Absurd, yes. But how many CEO's demand better accuracy. They are content to use their SWAG approach and pay the banks or the big consulting firms or the EIA to comfort them with the useless ranges. GIGO!

Edited January 15, 2019 by William Edwards

[ronwagn + 6,290]

13 hours ago, Marina Schwarz said:

BofA-ML sees Brent at $70 in 2019, but says global recession could result in $35

That's how you do price forecasts. Whatever happens, BofA will be right. Admirable.

I think the average of the two is my guess so $52.50 

[William Edwards + 708]

2 hours ago, ronwagn said:

I think the average of the two is my guess so $52.50 

Use B of A's plus or minus 100% and I think you will have nailed it.

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,246]

4 hours ago, ronwagn said:

I think the average of the two is my guess so $52.50 

As I have been here now few days in Ft. Stockton, Saw only one rig drilling outside of town. From Big Springs to Midland maybe 35 rigs within interstate sight. Some were 20 yard from the fence. Talked to a friend that's retired now but said is slowing down on drilling side. So the magic numbers for here in the Permian is 50.00 to slow down. 

So maybe Ron has the key number to sustain the craziness @ 52.50. In the last year I have not seen so many pumpjacks in the Sandhills to Monahans area. Tomorrow will take the bike out toward Jal, New Mexico area and see what is happening up there, as last Sept it was getting frac'd to borderline nuts. Much deeper drilling there, can't be making any money. Will see. Old driller buddy still working, I see what his take on all this. I just can't imagine this sustained activity can keep up much longer. Some banks are going to want some returns one would surmise.

Too Low and Too High equates to instability. I still believe a good WTI number 58.00 to 63.00 for stability. Brent will go where it wants, seems 10.00 dollars higher. Before I left home to come down here economic numbers were good and people getting back to work and oil was still a tad low. By end of first quarter will see...…..

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

36 minutes ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

As I have been here now few days in Ft. Stockton, Saw only one rig drilling outside of town. From Big Springs to Midland maybe 35 rigs within interstate sight. Some were 20 yard from the fence. Talked to a friend that's retired now but said is slowing down on drilling side. So the magic numbers for here in the Permian is 50.00 to slow down. 

So maybe Ron has the key number to sustain the craziness @ 52.50. In the last year I have not seen so many pumpjacks in the Sandhills to Monahans area. Tomorrow will take the bike out toward Jal, New Mexico area and see what is happening up there, as last Sept it was getting frac'd to borderline nuts. Much deeper drilling there, can't be making any money. Will see. Old driller buddy still working, I see what his take on all this. I just can't imagine this sustained activity can keep up much longer. Some banks are going to want some returns one would surmise.

Too Low and Too High equates to instability. I still believe a good WTI number 58.00 to 63.00 for stability. Brent will go where it wants, seems 10.00 dollars higher. Before I left home to come down here economic numbers were good and people getting back to work and oil was still a tad low. By end of first quarter will see...…..

We seem to be pretty much on the same page.

[cbrasher1 + 272]

11 rigs on one pad north of Stanton, TX

 

Several on 2355 outside of Pyote also.  I think drilling is continuing, some are just not being brought online?  $50 does seem to be the number when the brakes are hit, 58-63 is a good range to make money, although my shot was about 65

 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

18 hours ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

As I have been here now few days in Ft. Stockton, Saw only one rig drilling outside of town. From Big Springs to Midland maybe 35 rigs within interstate sight. Some were 20 yard from the fence. Talked to a friend that's retired now but said is slowing down on drilling side. So the magic numbers for here in the Permian is 50.00 to slow down. 

So maybe Ron has the key number to sustain the craziness @ 52.50. In the last year I have not seen so many pumpjacks in the Sandhills to Monahans area. Tomorrow will take the bike out toward Jal, New Mexico area and see what is happening up there, as last Sept it was getting frac'd to borderline nuts. Much deeper drilling there, can't be making any money. Will see. Old driller buddy still working, I see what his take on all this. I just can't imagine this sustained activity can keep up much longer. Some banks are going to want some returns one would surmise.

Too Low and Too High equates to instability. I still believe a good WTI number 58.00 to 63.00 for stability. Brent will go where it wants, seems 10.00 dollars higher. Before I left home to come down here economic numbers were good and people getting back to work and oil was still a tad low. By end of first quarter will see...…..

I would be happy up to $63.00. We need to keep the industry healthy. I would prefer to see natural gas (CNG and LNG) take over the heavy trucking and maritime demand over the next few decades. 

Edited January 16, 2019 by ronwagn
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