Crude Realities of Venezuela's Future

(edited)

Venezuela's political situation is boiling hot and noose is tightening around Maduro's neck . What is unfolding every day in Venezuela is a matter of great concern every nation in the world is watching very closely. Ultimately Maduro has to go. Count down for Maduro has started. People are already on the street . Basic law and order machinery are breaking down and Venezuelan police and army have to decide how long they can keep the situation under control. People are scared about civil unrest, chaos and Syria like situation that may unfold any time. Europe and China both responded positively for Trump's actions and doors for Maduro are closing down. Russia, Iran are closely watching the developments and in a fix . Iran is a non factor here. Russia if poking its nose unnecessarily in the affairs will complicate the situation beyond control and Venezuela will be at risk of proxy war between USA and Russia. Venezuela will be devastated if that situation becomes a reality. It is a matter of great concern that endless sufferings for common Venezuelans are waiting to happen if that situation  arises. UN has a role to play to bring amicable solution to the situations in Venezuela that is becoming very complicated in each passing day.

USA being the largest buyers of Venezuelan heavy crude tightening all screws around Maduro. Maduro seems adamant and expecting some help from Russia or China to bail him out of the situation, but that seems unlikely under the current circumstances. PDVSA, being the special purpose vehicle for Maduro seems running out of fuel very sooner than later and will not be able to support Maduro for long. China is withholding business ties  and ongoing Refinery project , JVs with PDVSA  under the emerging situations . Under these circumstances , all roads for Maduro are coming to an end. In  this situation, how long Maduro will be able to survive is million dollar question .Prices of crude is picking up due to the ongoing crisis in Venezuela and expected to rise further in the days to come. If there is smooth transfer of power to Guaido without blood spilling on the street, it will definitely avert a probable major humanitarian crisis looming large over Venezuela

Edited by Sukumar Ray
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4 hours ago, Sukumar Ray said:

Russia if poking its nose unnecessarily in the affairs

And America has a God given right to poke its nose it? Russia has business deals with Maduro and is protecting them.

There are no white knights in the world only grey, countries only intervene for their own benefit. Time will tell what Trump's is, a friend said to me the other night it maybe a simple as diverting people from the fact he is not getting his wall built.

By the way China also supports Maduro, again its in their business interests infact a fair part of the world actually supports him see article below it lists many countries like South Africa, Turkey, Mexico, Boliva, Cuba.... Don't let the fact there is a humanitarian disaster in the making make you see the world in black and white the West have caused a few humanitarian disasters in their time as well.

https://bigthink.com/strange-maps/which-countries-support-maduro-guaido?rebelltitem=2#rebelltitem2

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Who do you support? @jaycee.  I support Juan Guido.

I agree, few things are black and white.  But Maduro is stealing from his countrymen.

Anyone supporting Maduro supports a thief at best, a mass murderer at worse. 

Not looking for a debate, just looking for confirmation, who do you support?

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To say that intervention will cause a humanitarian disaster, is a bit of a foregone conclusion.  It takes an average family 22 full time salaries to provide for it today in Venezuela.  Doubt there are that many people in most families or many individuals making 22 times the national wage to feed their family.  This doesn't include the rampant crime that is feeding a lot of families or preying on families in horrendous ways just to survive.  And the leader of the country is stealing millions from it's citizens for his lifestyle.  One of his relatives posted pictures of his lavish lifestyle on the internet social sites a while back and citizens were outraged.  The reason China, Turkey, Mexico and others are being quite silent in their support is, none of them really support this lifestyle.  They don't want USA to install their selected leader, but they all know Maduro has to go.  He isn't paying them what he owes them either.  Russia flew in got a load of gold, but no one else has.  That just says they put the gun to Maduro's head and said, "Pay or you will end up with a horses head in your bed!"  You are going to be a dead man if you don't pay, if you do you still may be but we may consider flying you out before we let the citizens get you if you cooperate.  Ideally @jaycee I am in favor of letting the citizens take care of him.  But he has all the guns so that isn't happening and he is still able to feed the guys with the guns.  If that stops, the Russians won't be able to save him guaranteed.  

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3 hours ago, Mike Marcellus said:

Who do you support? @jaycee.  I support Juan Guido.

I agree, few things are black and white.  But Maduro is stealing from his countrymen.

Anyone supporting Maduro supports a thief at best, a mass murderer at worse. 

Not looking for a debate, just looking for confirmation, who do you support?

Maduro is not the only dishonest leader of a country and his country is not the biggest humanitarian disaster going, yet.

I support no politican or country as they are all out for themselves, but some manage to go further than others in robbing/using thier countrymen and become more noticeable.

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We have no problem whoever manages Venezuela in efficient way and bringing peace, prosperity and development to this oil rich country. If you analyse the last 15 years of Venezuela's political and financial conditions , it will be amply clear to you that this nation had a decent living conditions. Venezuela's economy has collapsed during Maduro's time. He took over the country during 2013 and gradually brought this nation to this current situation. He has risen to this highest authority from a bus driver and with the grace of Hugo Chavez he has mastered the art of dirty politics and suppression . This has given him an image of a dictator and usurper. He has developed a very corrupt regime and placed  senior army commanders in highest positions of bureaucracy, corporate and administrative positions to keep army happy and buy their support .  He is unable to manage a country's economy  which has highest reserves of crude oil in the world . Today Venezuela's 97% govt. revenue comes from Oil and this oil has been systematically choked by inefficient and inept handling of the resources and Venezuela's economy is closing down.

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(edited)

Whether Guaido will be able to manage current Venezuelan situation ??  Bringing the current situation under control and the economy on tract will take years for any leader. But, it is clear under Maduro's leadership the situation is going to be worse. Maduro should immediately call for a free and fair election and step aside till election results. This is the only solution which can bring the turbulent situation to normalcy. Army and police should be neutral and should not side with any political leader for the sake of the nation . UN observers must be there during election time . UN must give stern warning to Maduro for any arm twisting and meddling in the election affairs. He must be stepping aside till election results and Guaido should also be only care taker president till election results are out. US and UN have greater role to play bringing peace and normalcy in Venezuela.

Post election Caracas must allow its' closed and underdeveloped wells to operate and allow privatization of Oil Industry. Unless money and technology are allowed in the Oil sector , economic viability of Venezuela's  Oil industry will be a distant dream. The world is changing very rapidly and in the next 10-15 years Oil industry is expected to be changing to Gas based only and this major shift will leave Venezuela's unused, untapped oil resources redundant and will be of no significant use for the nation.s economy. Venezuela must wake up and allow  immediate privatization of oil industry and build production capacity of Oil wells and this can be only possible  inviting MNCs to pump money and technology in this Oil sector to which entire nation is totally dependent. Wake up Venezuela, time is slipping away?? 

Edited by Sukumar Ray
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(edited)

19 hours ago, Sukumar Ray said:

Venezuela's political situation is boiling hot and noose is tightening around Maduro's neck . What is unfolding every day in Venezuela is a matter of great concern every nation in the world is watching very closely. Ultimately Maduro has to go. Count down for Maduro has started. People are already on the street . Basic law and order machinery are breaking down and Venezuelan police and army has to decide how long they can keep the situation under control. People are scared about civil unrest, chaos and Syria like situation that may unfold in any time. Europe and China both responded positively for Trump's actions and doors for Maduro are closing down. Russia, Iran are closely watching the developments and in a fix . Iran is a non factor here. Russia if poking its nose unnecessarily in the affairs will complicate the situation beyond control and Venezuela will be at risk of proxy war between USA and Russia. Venezuela will be devastated if that situation becomes a reality. It is a matter of great concern that endless sufferings for common Venezuelans are waiting to happen if that situation  arises. UN has a role to play to bring amicable solution to the situations in Venezuela that is becoming very complicated in each passing day.

USA being the largest buyers of Venezuelan heavy crude tightening all screws around Maduro. Madura seems adamant and expecting some help from Russia or Iran to bail him out of the situation, but that seems unlikely under the current circumstances. PDVSA being the special purpose vehicle for Maduro seems running out of fuel very soon and will not be able to support Maduro very long. China is withholding business ties  and ongoing Refinery project JVs with PDVSA in the situations . Under this circumstances , all roads for Maduro are coming to an end. Under this situation, how long Maduro will be able to survive is million dollar question .Prices of crude is picking up due to the ongoing crisis in Venezuela and expected to rise further in the days to come. If there is smooth transfer of power to Guaido without blood spilling on the street, it will definitely avert a probable major humanitarian crisis looming large over Venezuela

I think that Brazil, Columbia, and some other local countries will help seal the fate of Maduro, his allies there, and his cronies. We are probably well embedded down there with our agents. 

The latest info https://finance.yahoo.com/news/maduro-regime-halts-plan-ship-173009364.html

Edited by ronwagn
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1 hour ago, Sukumar Ray said:

Whether Guaido will be able to manage current Venezuelan situation ??  Bringing the current situation under control and the economy on tract will take years for any leader. But, it is clear under Maduro's leadership the situation is going to be worse. Maduro should immediately call for a free and fair election and step aside till election results. This is the only solution which can bring the turbulent situation to normalcy. Army and police should be neutral and should not side with any political leader for the sake of the nation . UN observers must be there during election time . UN must give stern warning to Maduro for any arm twisting and meddling in the election affairs. He must be stepping aside till election results and Guaido should also be only care taker president till election results are out. US and UN have greater role to play bringing peace and normalcy in Venezuela.

Post election Caracas must allow its' closed and underdeveloped wells to operate and allow privatization of Oil Industry. Unless money and technology are allowed in the Oil sector , economic viability of Venezuela's  Oil industry will be a distant dream. The world is changing very rapidly and in the next 10-15 years Oil industry is expected to be changing to Gas based only and this major shift will leave Venezuela's unused, untapped oil resources redundant and will be of no significant use for the nation.s economy. Venezuela must wake up and allow  immediate privatization of oil industry and build production capacity of Oil wells and this can be only possible  inviting MNCs to pump money and technology in this Oil sector to which entire nation is totally dependent. Wake up Venezuela, time is slipping away?? 

You mention a 15 year switch toward natural gas. As a natural gas advocate, I am wondering where you got that information. I agree to a large extent but would love to have your source or a link. 

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13 hours ago, jaycee said:

Maduro is not the only dishonest leader of a country and his country is not the biggest humanitarian disaster going, yet.

I support no politican or country as they are all out for themselves, but some manage to go further than others in robbing/using thier countrymen and become more noticeable.

It would seem we agree on the principle that everyone is looking out for themselves.  Also, I appreciate a good counter-point.  But to remain neutral to such a clear case of abuse is... well, weird, perhaps compelling is a better word. 

I can not explain why Venezuela has captured my attention more than other conflicts.  One guess is, it's still early enough for a peaceful removal of Maduro...and that to me is progress towards a civilized world.  I'm also curious, and hopeful, that the U.S. participation is peaceful, and supportive of the people of Venezuela, and honestly, so I can point to that and say' "See we are not awful, horrible, greedy Americans. (every time)

I find Mexico's stance interesting, is it not similar to yours?  They are not supporting either side, and I am very curios as to why that is.   It could be innocuous, and simply neutral.  More often the stance has an agenda behind it, what  do you think could Mexico's real agenda be?

On a higher level of importance to me, is to help.  I am at my strongest when I'm lifting with and for others.  So I've somehow turned my selfish motivation of personal strength, into a bigger collective goal.  And that is the secret sauce, lending strength for something someone else wants and believes is not easy.  But it is contagious.

You and I can live in isolation if we want to try, but ultimately it's a crowded world, with limited resources.  So here we are hopefully watching a new era of liberty, and at least trying to be civilized.

Cheers

 

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Re Venezuela,

I don't support anyone in particular but I don't think it's the role of other countries leaders to dictate who can be President there.I expect the U.S. leadership to try, after all that's all they do isn't it, go around the world trying to effect regime change, usually for mercenary reasons.

Trump is a coward mind and regarding his Presidential term I feel the well noted phrase " In like a Lion out like a lamb" will prove appropriate.

 Interesting that nobody tried to oust Mugabe from Zimbabwe over many years of tyrannical leadership oops, sorry forgot, no oil in Zimbabwe!

 

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11 hours ago, Sukumar Ray said:

We have no problem whoever manages Venezuela in efficient way and bringing peace, prosperity and development to this oil rich country. If you analyse the last 15 years of Venezuela's political and financial conditions , it will be amply clear to you that this nation had a decent living conditions. Venezuela's economy has collapsed during Maduro's time. He took over the country during 2013 and gradually brought this nation to this current situation. He has risen to this highest authority from a bus driver and with the grace of Hugo Chavez he has mastered the art of dirty politics and suppression . This has given him an image of a dictator and usurper. He has developed a very corrupt regime and placed  senior army commanders in highest positions of bureaucracy, corporate and administrative positions to keep army happy and buy their support .  He is unable to manage a country's economy  which has highest reserves of crude oil in the world . Today Venezuela's 97% govt. revenue comes from Oil and this oil has been systematically choked by inefficient and inept handling of the resources and Venezuela's economy is closing down.

You should worry more about what happens in your own country before worrying about others. Are all your politicians honest, is there no poverty in your country? I am certain wherever you are the answer is no but the politicians that run your country and their friends in the press want you to look at the world through their lenses and project good and bad countries, obviously your country is a good one as your press and politicians tell you. Don't get upset about nasty Russians 'poking their noses in' they are doing what they think is best for them and it will be painted as such in their country meanwhile the West poking their noses in will be painted as bad there. Don't get sucked into saying who is good and who is bad look at the reasons your masters are distracting you. As I said my friend suggested Trump is only ramping up the rhetoric just now to divert attention from his failing wall policy,its a good diversion and puts him in a good light, positive news story instead of the government employees in the US that were suffering with no pay and the stalling/failure of one of his flagship policies. Why is your country or you siding with the anti Maduro side, why haven't you complained about the other abuses of power and human rights abuses round the world, there are many, because its not in the interests of your masters to get you excited about it. Sort out where you live first and then transfer those pure morals round the world.

This is not a personal attack on you this is how the world is I am hoping to open your eyes.

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(edited)

1 hour ago, Mike Marcellus said:

I'm also curious, and hopeful, that the U.S. participation is peaceful, and supportive of the people of Venezuela, and honestly, so I can point to that and say' "See we are not awful, horrible, greedy Americans. (every time)

I maybe more in agreement as to the altruistic nature of America if it wasn't Trump that is doing it.

 

1 hour ago, Mike Marcellus said:

I find Mexico's stance interesting, is it not similar to yours?

No mine is world weariness of watching countries interfere in other ones and it invariably ending up worse for the populace.

 

1 hour ago, Mike Marcellus said:

On a higher level of importance to me, is to help.  I am at my strongest when I'm lifting with and for others.  So I've somehow turned my selfish motivation of personal strength, into a bigger collective goal.  And that is the secret sauce, lending strength for something someone else wants and believes is not easy.  But it is contagious.

There are many genuine people in the world who want to help others sadly none of them are actually in charge of a country. I am sure many Americans are looking at this as a great and noble thing but then so did the British Empire when taking over another country to bring God and civilization to the savages whilst the real reason was far from that.

Edited by jaycee

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16 minutes ago, jaycee said:

I maybe more in agreement as to the altruistic nature of America if it wasn't Trump that is doing it.

hmm 2 directions I could go here...   

High road looks like this....It's certainly not one particular person proposing we help.  It is me, Marco Rubio, Venezuelan Colonel Jose Luis Silva, Venezuela’s military attache to the United States,  Chrystia Freeland, Minister of Foriegn Affairs Canada... the list is long

We are not on facebook, I should not have to say,,, "don't politicize this, just help"  but I will,,, please, please, please, do NOT try and make this issue any more grey than it already is.  Please remember, You and I already agreed not everything is black and white.  And here you are infusing politics into efforts aimed at helping the Venezuelan people through a very long, uphill road. This helps How???

Let's pretend all of this was happening on some other president's watch,,, now what jaycee? Does the effort still need to be re-considered? opposed?

Does it really matter who gets the credit?  How about we give all the credit to you, and your courageous apathy.

 

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30 minutes ago, Mike Marcellus said:

hmm 2 directions I could go here...   

High road looks like this....It's certainly not one particular person proposing we help.  It is me, Marco Rubio, Venezuelan Colonel Jose Luis Silva, Venezuela’s military attache to the United States,  Chrystia Freeland, Minister of Foriegn Affairs Canada... the list is long

We are not on facebook, I should not have to say,,, "don't politicize this, just help"  but I will,,, please, please, please, do NOT try and make this issue any more grey than it already is.  Please remember, You and I already agreed not everything is black and white.  And here you are infusing politics into efforts aimed at helping the Venezuelan people through a very long, uphill road. This helps How???

Let's pretend all of this was happening on some other president's watch,,, now what jaycee? Does the effort still need to be re-considered? opposed?

Does it really matter who gets the credit?  How about we give all the credit to you, and your courageous apathy.

 

What is happening on the surface looks good however its the motives I distrust. If El Presidente was so concerned about other countries human rights why is he not helping those in a worse state? Why, as Leko has pointed out, has America or Trump not intervened in Zimbabwe which is on a par with Venezuela in the past? There are reasons this is happening now, it is not from pure altruism the fact many are backing him means more want to burnish their 'I am a good guy' badge, where were they until now? Sorry I remain skeptical and await the result once this all plays out. 

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11 hours ago, jaycee said:

I maybe more in agreement as to the altruistic nature of America if it wasn't Trump that is doing it.

 

No mine is world weariness of watching countries interfere in other ones and it invariably ending up worse for the populace.

 

There are many genuine people in the world who want to help others sadly none of them are actually in charge of a country. I am sure many Americans are looking at this as a great and noble thing but then so did the British Empire when taking over another country to bring God and civilization to the savages whilst the real reason was far from that.

History is mainly a history of wars and how more technologically advanced nations took over other nations. I know of no areas that are exceptions. India was first taken over by lighter skinned invaders from the north and then by Muslims. The British came in the modern era. India has advanced greatly due to the time the British spent there as did the Chinese and Koreans due to invasions by the Japanese. That is not to say any of it was morally or ethically correct. It is just a fact. American Indian tribes fought each other for territory before the Europeans invaded. North and South Americans are far more populous and wealthy for it. It is the same all over the world. Colonial powers greatly advanced the areas. Communism has had the opposite effect because it just doesn't work. Capitalist nations can quickly reverse the economic fate of Venezuela. Communists cannot. Look at Cuba, Nicaragua, North Korea, Bolivia, etc. 

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23 hours ago, jaycee said:

You should worry more about what happens in your own country before worrying about others. Are all your politicians honest, is there no poverty in your country? I am certain wherever you are the answer is no but the politicians that run your country and their friends in the press want you to look at the world through their lenses and project good and bad countries, obviously your country is a good one as your press and politicians tell you. Don't get upset about nasty Russians 'poking their noses in' they are doing what they think is best for them and it will be painted as such in their country meanwhile the West poking their noses in will be painted as bad there. Don't get sucked into saying who is good and who is bad look at the reasons your masters are distracting you. As I said my friend suggested Trump is only ramping up the rhetoric just now to divert attention from his failing wall policy,its a good diversion and puts him in a good light, positive news story instead of the government employees in the US that were suffering with no pay and the stalling/failure of one of his flagship policies. Why is your country or you siding with the anti Maduro side, why haven't you complained about the other abuses of power and human rights abuses round the world, there are many, because its not in the interests of your masters to get you excited about it. Sort out where you live first and then transfer those pure morals round the world.

This is not a personal attack on you this is how the world is I am hoping to open your eyes

We are discussing about Venezuelan crisis, not about my country . Let us have the courage to face the fact and true to the topic of discussion rather than indulging in mud slinging and personal attack in order to divert attention. If you feel that indulging personal attack , diversionary tactics and bullying will muzzle my freedom of speech , you are living in the fool's paradise.  You should  learn that my writing and concern of Venezuelan crisis is in the best interest of may country and best interest of your country also. You should know that we live in a interconnected world   and any political fall out of any country will definitely effect the world economy and the effect  becomes a double  edge sword  both for  OPEC nation like Venezuela  and more so for Oil  importing countries. Entire world is  suffering for crisis in Caracas. We need stable oil prices and end Venezuelan crisis. Let me educate you that you must learn to be a positive person and upgrade your knowledge on issues concerning the world than to play politics and acting as a purported advocate.

Edited by Sukumar Ray
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On 2/2/2019 at 10:24 AM, ronwagn said:

You mention a 15 year switch toward natural gas. As a natural gas advocate, I am wondering where you got that information. I agree to a large extent but would love to have your source or a link. 

I appreciate your well thought out points and  your sharp knowledge and ability to strike the right chord. I am associated with Oil and Gas Industry over two decades and need no link /reference to predict the future of this industry . What is happening out there in Venezuela will have huge impact on Oil Industry with far reaching consequences on Oil Importing countries. What has USA done to normalize Oil prices is incredible and no country in the world has done so far what USA has done in this direction. US Shale boom has really saved the Oil Importing nations. The world will switch to Gas  based clean energy to next 15 years or so and Renewable sources of energy will play also a vital role in energy demands of the globe in the days to come. Cycle of energy usage shift will be more in case of Asian and African nations  as  economic development and industrial growths are kicking in there in the early part of this century. Therefore, complete switch to Gas based technology is not imminent in those nations, so this may prolong the demands for crude and survival of OPEC. 

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23 hours ago, jaycee said:

What is happening on the surface looks good however its the motives I distrust. If El Presidente was so concerned about other countries human rights why is he not helping those in a worse state? Why, as Leko has pointed out, has America or Trump not intervened in Zimbabwe which is on a par with Venezuela in the past? There are reasons this is happening now, it is not from pure altruism the fact many are backing him means more want to burnish their 'I am a good guy' badge, where were they until now? Sorry I remain skeptical and await the result once this all plays out. 

The short answer is that Zimbabwe isn’t in our backyard.  Venezuela is.  It’s natural to take a stronger interest in what’s going on in your neighborhood.  Especially with China and Russia sniffing around.

However, if the US had intervened in Zimbabwe folks would criticize the altruistic motivations in that. You can’t have it both ways. Zimbabwe is sitting on lots of gold, platinum, copper, lithium, vanadium, iron, coal.  Not to mention precious stones.

Besides, the UK has a stronger obligation there.  The Colonial UK ran Zimbabwe (Rhodesia) from the late 1800’s until the 1980’s directly and indirectly.  And, the UK is one of Zimbabwe’s biggest trading partners.   That makes it a UK liability IMO.

Last, it bears pointing out.  Trump hasn’t done anything in Venezuela yet.  Thus far it’s been diplomatic and we shall see, if Maduro refuses to leave peacefully, what the US might do.  Until then, it’s all speculation.  

 

 

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Few people tend to believe that Oil Exporting countries are doing great favour to countries who buy Oil from them, forgetting the very fact that without buyers of this dirty fossil fuel they probably would not have  survived as a nation . The invention of IC engines have created  food for survival for these nations . Just go to the history of the countries prior to discovery of IC engines . Massive Industrialization and discovery of IC engines in the early nineteenth century created huge demands for snake oIl ,  nations gifted with this new found resources started getting easy money and developed as a nation. With this vast new found natural resources , most of these countries  became totally dependent on the revenues of  crude exporting  nations . As and   when the prices keep fluctuating, economy falters , common people suffers  and  people in command keep blaming other countries for their failures as it is always politically convenient for them to blame Big Brothers for their failures. These old tricks are no more working for their people and  nobody is buying their idea any more and that why civil unrest is being witnessed across these nations in the recent past and there have been instances of  regime change in few countries . There is a trend  of  civil unrest, chaos and regime change etc. observed in the countries whose economy is based solely on Oil. The bitter truth  is mostly authoritarian , dictatorial, and repressive regimes have followed there . UN has repeatedly voiced concerns about  rampant human rights violations there .Unless these countries switch their over dependence on crude economy and build sustainable viable alternate economy till the last barrel disappears, their economic future will keep vacillating  in uncertainty..

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5 hours ago, Sukumar Ray said:

We are discussing about Venezuelan crisis, not about my country . Let us have the courage to face the fact and true to the topic of discussion rather than indulging in mud slinging and personal attack in order to divert attention. If you feel that indulging personal attack , diversionary tactics and bullying will muzzle my freedom of speech , you are living in the fool's paradise.  You should  learn that my writing and concern of Venezuelan crisis is in the best interest of may country and best interest of your country also. You should know that we live in a interconnected world   and any political fall out of any country will definitely effect the world economy and the effect  becomes a double  edge sword  both for  OPEC nation like Venezuela  and more so for Oil  importing countries. Entire world is  suffering for crisis in Caracas. We need stable oil prices and end Venezuelan crisis. Let me educate you that you must learn to be a positive person and upgrade your knowledge on issues concerning the world than to play politics and acting as a purported advocate.

Try reading what I said instead of making up things and taking offence where I have pointedly said I wasn't giving any. 

By the way the entire world is not suffering because of Venezuela, they are not responsible for the movement in oil prices it is American shale producers and the removal (or not as the case maybe) of Iranian oil from world markets that is moving world prices.

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16 hours ago, ronwagn said:

History is mainly a history of wars and how more technologically advanced nations took over other nations. I know of no areas that are exceptions. India was first taken over by lighter skinned invaders from the north and then by Muslims. The British came in the modern era. India has advanced greatly due to the time the British spent there as did the Chinese and Koreans due to invasions by the Japanese. That is not to say any of it was morally or ethically correct. It is just a fact. American Indian tribes fought each other for territory before the Europeans invaded. North and South Americans are far more populous and wealthy for it. It is the same all over the world. Colonial powers greatly advanced the areas. Communism has had the opposite effect because it just doesn't work. Capitalist nations can quickly reverse the economic fate of Venezuela. Communists cannot. Look at Cuba, Nicaragua, North Korea, Bolivia, etc. 

Exactly my point everyone is out for themselves we are in agreement lol 😁

As for reversing the economic fate of Venezuela I am sure the communists, or more accurately the former communist states, would say that removal of sanctions and assisting the country would help them recover. All depends if you get on with the current ruler, America doesn't Russia and China does. America wants him out Russia doesn't, similar to the good old cold war days. Two sides fighting over a country that generally takes the hit for having something both sides want. Back to the Zimbabwe point it is a mirror image of what is happening to Venezuela only they were a agricultural exporter instead of oil now they have starvation but nobody cares as they don't have anything the big countries want otherwise there would be calls for regime change as they have been suffering for years with hyperinflation, food shortages and a dictator running the country for himself and his mates in the army.

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4 hours ago, TXPower said:

The short answer is that Zimbabwe isn’t in our backyard.  Venezuela is.  It’s natural to take a stronger interest in what’s going on in your neighborhood.  Especially with China and Russia sniffing around.

However, if the US had intervened in Zimbabwe folks would criticize the altruistic motivations in that. You can’t have it both ways. Zimbabwe is sitting on lots of gold, platinum, copper, lithium, vanadium, iron, coal.  Not to mention precious stones.

Besides, the UK has a stronger obligation there.  The Colonial UK ran Zimbabwe (Rhodesia) from the late 1800’s until the 1980’s directly and indirectly.  And, the UK is one of Zimbabwe’s biggest trading partners.   That makes it a UK liability IMO.

Last, it bears pointing out.  Trump hasn’t done anything in Venezuela yet.  Thus far it’s been diplomatic and we shall see, if Maduro refuses to leave peacefully, what the US might do.  Until then, it’s all speculation.  

 

 

Iran, Afghanistan, Syria, Korea, Vietnam are not right next to America. History suggests nearness to the US and intervening are not connected.

Yes the UK has a responsibility in Zim but they have learnt interfering in other countries generally doesn't make things better. They still follow the US into every fight mind you for some reason, probably so they can pretend to be powerful, personally I think the UK should not jump into every conflict the US does we never gain anything from it all contracts to rebuild the countries etc goto American companies, usually ones that are close to the President du juor all we get are body bags

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1 hour ago, jaycee said:

Iran, Afghanistan, Syria, Korea, Vietnam are not right next to America. History suggests nearness to the US and intervening are not connected.

Yes the UK has a responsibility in Zim but they have learnt interfering in other countries generally doesn't make things better. They still follow the US into every fight mind you for some reason, probably so they can pretend to be powerful, personally I think the UK should not jump into every conflict the US does we never gain anything from it all contracts to rebuild the countries etc goto American companies, usually ones that are close to the President du juor all we get are body bags

You are correct, proximity isn’t the sole driver.  Good thing or WWII might have had a different outcome.  But what intervention has the US embarked on in Venezuela to this point?

It was the British that forced Reza Pahlavi to abdicate his rule to his son, the last Shah of Iran.  Whatever misguided goals the US may have had in trying to prop him up after, I think there is ample proof that the Islamists are far worse.

Afghanistan was the base of operations for Al Queda, I will make no apologies for our activities there post 9-11.  Suffice it to say, there was, is and will not be any payback to the US Tax Payer, for our or the UK’s efforts in Afghanistan.  Especially the families of those killed in action.  But it was necessary.

South Korea seems to be doing quite well.  Vietnam, well, I concede to you there and would add Iraq to the list.

Dont fret over the contracts America gets afterward.  None of them have even come close to paying back what those actions cost us in blood and treasure.

What the UK gets out of following the US into these is experienced, relevant and battle hardened soldiers who have the skills necessary to wage war and protect her interests.  That becomes very valuable when talk and negotiations fail.  

 

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