Shale is Not the Next Saudi Arabia

"Long-cycle oil production remains on "life support," while shale output's future climb will likely be more moderate than many analysts expect, John Hess, CEO of Hess Corporation, said Friday. "Shale is not the next Saudi Arabia," Hess said during a Center for Strategic and International Studies event." Here.

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Marina Schwarz said:

"Long-cycle oil production remains on "life support," while shale output's future climb will likely be more moderate than many analysts expect, John Hess, CEO of Hess Corporation, said Friday. "Shale is not the next Saudi Arabia," Hess said during a Center for Strategic and International Studies event." Here.

Sorry, I didn't read the article, but does it mean there won't be shariah law in Texas?

  • Haha 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

Sorry, I didn't read the article, but does it mean there won't be shariah law in Texas?

Hey, it wasn't that long ago you couldn't dance in Waco, but that would be Southern Baptist. hahaha

  • Haha 3
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, John Foote said:

Hey, it wasn't that long ago you couldn't dance in Waco, but that would be Southern Baptist. hahaha

Who says Texans can dance now?  Ha-ha!  (don't shoot, I'm just kidding!)  I like a good Texas two-step myself from time to time.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And, you've gotta have a fiddle in the band.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Orbital Science Co reported last week World oil inventories went up 60 million barrels.  OPEC+ has finally started to cut production  . . .  but in exports from storage has gone up.  US exported 3.6 million barrels a day last week  . . .  new record.  

Using new tech and "Cube" or "Row" drilling methods eliminate frac hits.  

Those that can afford new tech are getting shale break evens $20 , Shell said new tech getting Offshore break even sub $30 going forward.

OPEC price fixing will end when new Permian to Gulf pipelines and new or upgraded Gulf Mex export terminals completed Q1 2020.  

The adage that oil prices will always go back up is true  . . . .  until it isn't.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

Traders waiting for trade deal with china to be announced.  Already baked into current prices.

Orbital Science says World inventories increased 60 million barrels last week.

China and Japan released miserable mfg numbers this week.  

When WTI breaks below $55 goes straight t0 $50. in my opinion. 

OPEC is losing its MOJO.  Prices longterm will "balance" and "stabilize at $45 to $55 after US ever increasing exports.  

Time to buy Chevron, Exxon and Occidental in my opinion. 

Edited by JJCar
Tupo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

Hess says shale not the next Saudi Arabia.  Of course  . . .  what do you expect him to say.  He's trying to talk up oil prices.  He also said with new technology Hess reported new wells  drilled with new technology are giving Hess a 55% return AT $50 bbl oil vs 15% at $50 for those drilled before 2018. 

Chevron is going gangbusters in shale as their CEO just stated "cut costs or die".

New "Cube" or "Row"  drilling cost big upfront investment per pad. ($120 Million).  Small and medium operators that got into shale when oil prices were $100 bbl and going up forever (or so they thought) wont cut it going forward.  Look for major consolidation I shale country.  The 500+ operators in US Shale will go to 50 to 100.  

Continental Harold Hamm says $70 oil is the sweet spot.  Don't fall for his machinations.  OPEC and Oil Companies already trying to save the world from future oil price increases by by trying to get US to legislate a "balanced" or "stabilizing" control at higher prices today to encourage future investment .  Bunch of Bull.  However, Harold Hamm is tight with Trump and has his ear.  Harry can pick up phone and call The Don any time.  Let free markets prevail.  

Edited by JJCar
Typo
  • Great Response! 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On 3/5/2019 at 10:54 AM, Dan Warnick said:

And, you've gotta have a fiddle in the band.

Always find it funny the band writing that was Alabama.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WTTNTUS2&f=W

 

Follow this link. What do you see.  That chart shows just how close the US is to net oil independance.

Three out of the last 6 weeks the US was a net exporter. Now the question is. Do we quit importing foreign oil to foreign refineries in the US for tax dollars while eating the pollution that sickens our population. Whats your opinion.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The size of the oil shale resources is highly dependent on which grade cut-off is used.[14] A 2008 estimate set the total world resources of oil shale at 689 gigatons—equivalent to yield of 4.8 trillion barrels (760 billion cubic metres) of shale oil, with the largest reserves in the United States, which is thought to have 3.7 trillion barrels (590 billion cubic metres), though only a part of it is recoverable.[15] According to the 2010 World Energy Outlook by the International Energy Agency, the world oil shale resources may be equivalent of more than 5 trillion barrels (790 billion cubic metres) of oil in place of which more than 1 trillion barrels (160 billion cubic metres) may be technically recoverable.[1]

A 2016 conservative estimate by the World Energy Council set the total world resources of oil shale equivalent to yield of 6.05 trillion barrels (962 billion cubic metres).[2] For comparison, at the same time the world's proven oil reserves are estimated to be 1.6976 trillion barrels (269.90 billion cubic metres).[8]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_shale_reserves#Definition_of_reserves

 

He is right, it's not Saudi Arabia, it's bigger..lol

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

When you have drilled ten thousand new wells in the Bakken since 2008, at five million USD each, you have invested fifty billion dollars.  Production is going to increase by a factor of at least ten, just what will happen.

If the new wells produce one hundred barrels each per day on average, you will have one million barrels to sell.  Since there are that many wells, there has to be buyers of the oil.  If nobody wanted the oil, they wouldn't buy it.  There would be no demand, maybe even zero.

There must be some demand for oil if it is delivered to market, buyers are buying.  At a price of forty dollars per barrel, it is forty million dollars each day.  After one year's time, 365 days, you'll have total income of 14,600,000,000 dollars.  At some point in time after a number of years of production, there should be a day that comes along when somebody makes at least one dollar in profit, maybe even more.

People are in the oil business to make money, I know of no other reason.  People want oil and refined products of oil, gasoline.  If there was no demand, there would be no supply.  The deal is sealed, I'll take twenty gallons of gas, here's your fifty dollars.  In the early 70s, you could buy twenty gallons of gas for five dollars.  25 cents per gallon and as low as 20 cents during a gas war, the only war worth having. 

When John D. Rockefeller first started out in the business, gasoline was hauled to gullies around the Cleveland area and dumped.  It was kerosene that was the fuel to light your lanterns at night, not whale oil.  Besides, whale oil cost more, kerosene became the lantern fuel of choice.  Demand trumps everything.

I know of an old oilfield out in my neck of the woods that was drilled in the late 50s, early 60s, quite some time ago now.  Over the years, there has been more oil wells drilled and in the past few years a good twenty wells have been drilled in the vicinity encompassing two fields.

One well that I knew of did produce oil for over fifty years.  While some older wells have been abandoned, just as many new wells have been drilled.  The technologies improve, it's a good idea to drill a new well where an old well has been pumping oil for fifty years, chances are that there is more oil nearby and at that spot.  All the setup of drilling rigs, the pad placement, all that stuff takes place before your eyes.

Soon afterwards, there are tanks and a pump standing where the rig was not so long ago.  Instead of an old well a half a mile away or so, there are ten new wells within a two mile radius.

If there were no demand for oil and refined oil products, no buyers, nobody even wants any oil, there would be no market at all.

What you have is every mother's son buying oil in vast numbers of a hundred million barrels every day.   The demand is there and appears to be rather strong too.  lol 

Goes on every day, day after day.  One thing for sure, there is a lot of it.  If the supply wanes and is not enough to meet demand, the price will naturally increase.  You'll probably pay through the nose for your fuel and you'll use a lot less of it to none at all.

 

 

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The new Saudi Arabia, no, the new Persian Gulf, is the Caspian.....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

JJ you took the words out of my mouth. When these people talk in the media half of what they say is smoke to lead others to report it and social media to talk about it. I believe the US with it's vast amounts of natural resources and ever expanding ways to tap those resources will continue to elevate our great nation as a leader in energy production for years to come.

Brett H    Jacksonville, FL.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On ‎3‎/‎6‎/‎2019 at 12:18 PM, JJCar said:

Hess says shale not the next Saudi Arabia.  Of course  . . .  what to expect him to say.  He's trying to talk up oil prices.  He also said with new technology Hess reported new wells  drilled with new technology are giving Hess a 55% return AT $50 bbl oil vs 15% at $50 for those drilled before 2018. 

Chevron is going gangbusters in shale as their CEO just stated "cut costs or die".

New "Cube" or "Row"  drilling cost big upfront investment per pad. ($120 Million).  Small and medium operators that got into shale when oil prices were $100 bbl and going up forever (or so they thought) wont cut it going forward.  Look for major consolidation I shale country.  The 500+ operators in US Shale will go to 50 to 100.  

Continental Harold Hamm says $70 oil is the sweet spot.  Don't fall for his machinations.  OPEC and Oil Companies already trying to save the world from future oil price increases by by trying to get US to legislate a "balanced" or "stabilizing" control at higher prices today to encourage future investment .  Bunch of Bull.  However, Harold Hamm is tight with Trump and has his ear.  Harry can pick up phone and call The Don any time.  Let free markets prevail.  

Actually JJCar, your post other day I just read, and is spot on. 70 bux a bbl is extremely profitable for most producers.  Even shale drillers in the tightest areas break even at 40 tops, most shale is 18 to 25 Break-even.  Row drilling is now the norm and Chevron is hammering the west Permian. So if oil stays in the 55 area WTI money is made, but a lot of investors want more and more from their investments. Greedy folks aplenty. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On ‎3‎/‎7‎/‎2019 at 12:39 PM, Boat said:

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WTTNTUS2&f=W

 

Follow this link. What do you see.  That chart shows just how close the US is to net oil independance.

Three out of the last 6 weeks the US was a net exporter. Now the question is. Do we quit importing foreign oil to foreign refineries in the US for tax dollars while eating the pollution that sickens our population. Whats your opinion.

 

 

My opinion doesn't matter, nor does anyone else's on this site. Not collectively as a whole what we say on here will sway opinions that hold all the chips. While we are close to energy independence we will still need heavy crude for the southern refineries down south. You cannot convert them to crack light sweet crude. The regulations governing our refineries choke growth and independence. This is why no new refineries have been built since late 70's. Only expanded on too. So the cat and mouse game will continue for some time to come. The world is now consuming 100mbd, and will go up more. So the pollution problem in India and China will increase. China's gonna save us all tho, gonna mass produce more crappy EV'

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites