Trump Tariffs On China Working

Trump's tariffs on China are working. Chinese exports yoy fell almost 21%. China introduced more stimulus of tax cuts, issuing bonds, and reducing the VAT. Meanwhile US employment is at a 50 year low. It all increases pressure on China to agree to a favorable trade deal because the last thing China wants is millions of unemployed angry proletariat.

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It is easy to compare the larger damage to the Hang Seng Index to the Dow, S&P, etc. You are correct. We are doing fine. They are hurting by comparison. We should keep up the pressure from now on. Our problem is our crony capitalists who only care about making money in China. Many are diversifying their investments to other countries. China is no longer the low cost option anyway. We could invest in America or many other countries. We should not invest in our primary world adversaries. 

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40 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

Our problem is our crony capitalists who only care about making money in China. Many are diversifying their investments to other countries. China is no longer the low cost option anyway.

Bingo. China doesn't have the low cost labor advantage anymore but some American companies still push that narrative so they can kiss up to China for money.

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Have you noticed that the trade deficit is worse than ever? And the forecast is it's getting worse. You can't isolate to a country. And yes, we absolutely need to address China's harvesting of our technology. But moving the trade from China, to Vietnam. Sorry, that is not a win for American manufacturing.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/balance-of-trade

 

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On 3/9/2019 at 5:48 PM, John Foote said:

Have you noticed that the trade deficit is worse than ever? And the forecast is it's getting worse. You can't isolate to a country. And yes, we absolutely need to address China's harvesting of our technology. But moving the trade from China, to Vietnam. Sorry, that is not a win for American manufacturing.

Which is directly a result of one way free trade agreements. Our government wants cable suppliers that connect to servers to move out of China for fear of Chinese spying. It wants to ban Huawei. So yes moving that trade out of China is a necessity. You're shooting yourself in the foot twice by making them rich selling cheap stuff now and enabling their cyber espionage which is used to steal trade secrets and undermine our companies in the future. Your view is short-sighted and naive to the threat.

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On 3/12/2019 at 12:51 PM, shadowkin said:

Your view is short-sighted and naive to the threat.

My point isn't to not be tough on China, it's don't be tough on China by yourself. It has to be coordinated with other countries, allies, or the workarounds defeat much of the objective. So much Asia wants anything but China, and we need to align them. Individually, these countries have little influence against China, though they loath them. No country enjoys being a vassal state. I don't really see how moving iPhone production from China to India is a win. The IP issue is a bigger deal to me than the low cost labor thing. But it has to be other advanced countries also working to prevent the IP transfers. 

And I've already witnessed made in China labeled as something else. Takes a detour through another country. It takes a far more concerted effort than I see happening to make better progress. 

Also, China suffers from heavily managed economy syndrome as well. They have plenty of challenges. We can out react, and out innovate them. If we can't beat them, then maybe our model isn't so special. 

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