THE DEATH OF FOSSIL FUEL MARKETS

(edited)

Electrification is happening quickly in Asia now. Half of the fossil fuel demand is about to perish in next 3 years. Oil Marketing companies realize this very well.

$60, $50, $40, $30........That's how the crude is poised in months to follow! The underlying fundamentals of crude market are set to turn upside down!

Edited by Anuj Gupta
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35 minutes ago, Anuj Gupta said:

Electrification is happening quickly in Asia now. Half of the fossil fuel demand if about to perish in next 3 years. Oil Marketing companies realize this very well.

$60, $50, $40, $30........That's how the crude is poised in months to follow! The underlying fundamentals of crude market are set to turn upside down!

Well that's an interesting theory.

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Where will that electricity come from?

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So, it will still come from fossil fuels.

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1 hour ago, Anuj Gupta said:

Electrification is happening quickly in Asia now. Half of the fossil fuel demand if about to perish in next 3 years. Oil Marketing companies realize this very well.

$60, $50, $40, $30........That's how the crude is poised in months to follow! The underlying fundamentals of crude market are set to turn upside down!

Funny how people comment and fail to begin statements with "It is my opinion that....." or do not submit a link to back up claims.

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I agree that electrification will rise relatively quickly, but that does that mean that the demand for fossil fuels will drop significantly, if at all over the next 5 years.  I don’t believe that many motorists are going to stop driving gas and diesel powered vehicles which are still in good operating condition, and a lot more of them are being produced every day.  More likely any drop is demand for oil will be more than made up for in increased demand for natural gas.  The net drop in carbon will have to come predominantly from the drop in demand for coal.  The increase in solar and wind power will certainly help, but it is hard for me to see how we will be able to sufficiently reduce with world’s release of greenhouse gases without a substantial tax on carbon and without a major increase in nuclear power.  

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5 hours ago, Rodent said:

Well that's an interesting theory.

Well @Rodent , there's your next contest.  Start the clock please and see who guesses closest to reality on this claim.

"Half of the fossil fuel demand is about to perish in next 3 years." (I helped with the spelling)

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The U.S. consumes around 18 million bbl of oil a day, now.  The products made from petroleum products go from asphalt and tires, to lipstick and surfboards.  So, when half the demand for fossil fuels perishes is the next 3 years, what will the public give up?  Gasoline, cheap and dependable electricity, heat, roads, or what?  Love to know how you see the U.S. putting up massive wind farms and solar farms and still drive their cars and fly in planes by consuming 9 million bbls a day.  I guess I just don't have enough cogent evidence to make this assumption work.

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(edited)

16 hours ago, Anuj Gupta said:

Electrification is happening quickly in Asia now. Half of the fossil fuel demand if about to perish in next 3 years. Oil Marketing companies realize this very well.

$60, $50, $40, $30........That's how the crude is poised in months to follow! The underlying fundamentals of crude market are set to turn upside down!

First, there is no possibility that could be done. Maybe fifty years and even then oil will be needed.

Second, natural gas is needed for clean baseload energy.

Third, natural gas can be used for trucking, ships, etc. They cannot run off electricity unless they are hybrid or attached to a track or overhead line.  

Fourth, natural gas cars actually are more common than electric cars, make more sense, and are much cheaper. https://www.ngva.eu/  

http://www.ngvglobal.com/

Edited by ronwagn
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(edited)

This will be awesome, I hope they speed up the pickup truck development.

I may finally be able to afford a decent used turbo diesel one when millions are dump for the electric one's. lol and the best part will be that diesel will probably be 15- 20 cents a gallon since demand will soon be plummeting.

Think about, a 50 thousand dollar pickup bought today, may only be worth a couple grand in three years.

Anuj Gupta , ya made my day..;)

 

Edited by Cowpoke
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Well, since most of the commentators are from the other side of the world, let me try & establish what I mean by the "Death of Fossil Fuel Markets".

I've been seeing solar panels being installed on roofs every day since last 2 years & vendors of the solar products are flushing the markets with better & cheaper technology every month. Hotels, Universities & Hospitals have shifted to solar totally & its happening every day. Housing societies & shopping centers too have their own electric now. A lot of small passenger commercial vehicles today are being run by electric & being charged with solar. Government of India is fast giving out big orders to electric shuttles manufacturers & trashing the diesel engine passenger vehicles run by the state. On the big shore side of the country government has subsidized installation of wind mill projects & hundreds of corporations are busy in boosting up capacities since last 2 years. Metro stations have shifted to solar already & the railway ministry is ruling out diesel locomotives heavily every year.

Natural Gas clearly will have its markets live longer but heavy crude derivatives markets look bleak in both short to long term.

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(edited)

South Korea is one of the biggest oil and gas buyers in Asia. Two years ago they elected a naive environmentalist as their president. His policy was to boost solar and wind energy in order to reduce his nation's dependency on nuclear and fossil fuel energy. As a first step he ordered to stop operating nuclear and fossil fuel power plants. Although he covered so many mountains and fields with solar panels, solar energy was never enough to replace nuclear and fossil fuel energy. Results are funny. Their government had to re-operate coal and gas power plants. And now they burn more coal and natural gas than before. And for the sake of environment, they are going to drive electric cars with electricity produced by fossil fuel.

Edited by homan Han
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On ‎3‎/‎16‎/‎2019 at 6:30 PM, Cowpoke said:

This will be awesome, I hope they speed up the pickup truck development.

I may finally be able to afford a decent used turbo diesel one when millions are dump for the electric one's. lol and the best part will be that diesel will probably be 15- 20 cents a gallon since demand will soon be plummeting.

Think about, a 50 thousand dollar pickup bought today, may only be worth a couple grand in three years. 

Anuj Gupta , ya made my day..;)

 

Elon Tusk will remove panoramic glass from the model 3/Y and voila, here comes your electric pickup!

D1rEcJfWoAEpqDA.jpg

Perhaps Anuj will one day wise up to sad realities of math behind shear volume of our fossil-fuel dependency but I will not rain on his very enthusiastic parade here. My empirical observation is that magical thinking is heck of a lot more common than common sense.

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5 hours ago, homan Han said:

South Korea is one of the biggest oil and gas buyers in Asia. Two years ago they elected a naive environmentalist as their president. His policy was to boost solar and wind energy in order to reduce his nation's dependency on nuclear and fossil fuel energy. As a first step he ordered to stop operating nuclear and fossil fuel power plants. Although he covered so many mountains and fields with solar panels, solar energy was never enough to replace nuclear and fossil fuel energy. Results are funny. Their government had to re-operate coal and gas power plants. And now they burn more coal and natural gas than before. And for the sake of environment, they are going to drive electric cars with electricity produced by fossil fuel.

I made an attempt to locate 'mountains and fields covered with solar panels' using Google Maps. I was able to find some 'solar farms', as displayed in the attached satellite image. This took a bit of work to locate. There is nothing that even remotely suggests SK is 'covered with solar panels'. In any case, doing so would be excessive.

SouthKoreanSolarFarms.png

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It's very simple, "Batteries" Cheap non-carbon baseload energy is needed to get off fossil fuels.  Nuclear is to expensive, meaning we need to find a way to do this with wind and solar.  Solar prices per kw per square meter of panel look to become more and more cost competitive with fossil fuels over more of the Earths surface as we move forward but this energy source cannot be used as base load because the Sun doesn't shine 24/7 and neither does the wind. When the Sun/Wind and Battery cycle can get below the $0.0505 cents I currently pay on my utility bill for " Electricity Supply Charge" I will be all in.  It's all about the Battery Now!   Natural Gas will then only be used for Peaker Plants.

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Demand for Oil & Gas & LNG are not going away any time soon.

No matter how much AOC declares to the contrary.

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