Cracks in the Production Cut Deal....

"Russia should start exiting a global deal to cut oil output if crude prices remain at $70 per barrel for more than six months, Lukoil chief executive Vagit Alekperov said on Friday as he unveiled a $2-3 billion share buyback program." --Reuters

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Yeah, they definitely would benefit from an exit at this point. The Saudis need more though, I think. 

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Uh oh... is the OPEC deal coming apart then?

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I think OPEC has positioned itself precariously. They will have to hang on even if Russia bows out. If Russia does start to either cheat or put an end to its side of the deal, it will eat away even more at Saudi's market share in Asia. Still, the higher oil prices that will ensue if Saudi holds on--even without Russia--will give it the price it needs for its Aramco listing. That said, if the Aramco listing is fast tracked, I think we'll see Russia and Saudi end the deal early.

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