China's E-Buses Killing Diesel Demand

For a change, it's not the millennials that are killing everything in sight.

A new report from Bloomberg New Energy Finance suggests that China's electric-bus revolution could kill off oil demand in the future. Here.

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that is a pretty long list, and while that might be a good thing because it means there are many things that can be replaced by batteries, it also is a bad thing because I see that as a monumental undertaking to convert all/most of those things to battery power.

Who is going to spearhead that in each industry? The keep it in the grounders are too busy shouting about pipelines to worry about coming up with real solutions. Hollywood is too busy with more showy causes. The industry's themselves have no incentive to what would be a colossal switch until fossil fuel becomes more expensive than the battery alternative (your examples of where this already exists are good).

People have shown time and time again that there is a very small segment of the population that is willing to fork over more money for the more environmentally friendly solution. Either demand or cost savings is often what drives research and development. 

I don't know, I just see this all as a very slow roll. 

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23 minutes ago, Rodent said:

Who is going to spearhead that in each industry? The keep it in the grounders are too busy shouting about pipelines to worry about coming up with real solutions. Hollywood is too busy with more showy causes. The industry's themselves have no incentive to what would be a colossal switch until fossil fuel becomes more expensive than the battery alternative (your examples of where this already exists are good).

The changeover from gasoline & diesel transportation to electric will come about as each segment of the transportation industry comes to the realization that there is a fiscal advantage to make that change and it will not come a minute sooner than that.

All of the Greenies' arguments these days have some common threads. 

1) There is always urgency written into their script. "The sky is going to fall in 12 years unless we .....". This is a basic marketing tactic called "building urgency". I can remember learning about the different marketing angles when I was in 5th or 6th grade. 

2) Arrogance. The green left is the epitome of arrogance. There is no other way that supposedly well-educated and intelligent people could back the claims that they do without sound science. I have opined here on this forum my stance that we absolutely do not have enough data to point an accusing finger at the culprit of the current upswing in average temperatures. I recall the ice-age scare of the 70s. We were supposed to be falling headlong into the deep freeze back then because of man's impact on the environment.

3) Emotion. The green left always makes an emotional sales pitch. Very few good decisions are made when based on emotional thinking. Stop and step back and take a few long breaths and think about it before you act.

4) Mob mentality. Most people are not leaders and all too common these days are the people who do not want to think for themselves. They will go along with a perceived mob in order to feel like they fit in. The green left plays on this and does it very well.

I kind of got on a rant here but in closing: Fossil fuels will not be replaced by anything until the alternative is cheaper. Charging stations will not be widespread until there is a profit to be made by the companies that are paying for them to be installed widespread. 

 

R2020

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9 hours ago, Rodent said:

I don't know, I just see this all as a very slow roll. 

That's the only right and proper way to make this sort of thing happen, I think. 

R2020.

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Well, good.  

If diesel demand is being killed so rapidly, then maybe we won't have to worry about a major price spike when the IMO rules come into play.  

I want to see an electric option for every vehicle/machine where diesel currently dominates, especially in the mining industry.

Many underground mining operations are ditching their diesel haulers in favor of much more expensive electric haulers.  The reason is to cut costs.  The massive increase in price of the electric haulers are negligible compared to the price of installing extra ventilation as an underground mine expands.  In addition, electric trucks with rock drills installed on them can continuously drill, while diesel trucks with rock drills have to stop and start the engine intermittently to prevent air-borne dust from ruining the diesel engine. 

With no internal combustion engine and no cabin, an unmanned autonomous robotic electric vehicle can be 100% waterproof and operate under water.  Internal combustion engines require oxygen while electric vehicles do not.  This makes electric vehicles suitable for operating on the moon or mars, or any other moon, planet, or asteroid that doesn't have an earth-like atmosphere or any atmosphere at all.  

That being said, I still don't think oil demand will peak unless there is a major collapse in the global economy and/or global population.  

If you follow global marketing reports, you will see things like:
"This polymer plastic will increase at a CAGR of 4.7% from 2017-2024",
"This petrochemical will increase at a CAGR of 7.3% from 2017-2024",
"This nanomaterial will increase at a CAGR of 11.8% from 2017-2024".  
(CAGR means compound annual growth rate, for those of you unfamiliar with the term.)

Once you realize that they all derive from oil and gas, you will understand how important the "non-fuel" applications of the so-called "fossil fuels" are really.  

If you only want to look at "peak 'oil as a fuel' demand", the decrease in diesel hardly makes a dent in the huge jet fuel demand increase, as Asia builds new airports and creates new flight paths.  

There are plenty of new refineries being built globally to produce enough middle distillates for the new IMO regulations as China (and Europe) decrease their diesel usage.  The problem I see is that if the global airline industry grows more rapidly than expected, those middle distillates will consist more of jet fuel and less of marine gasoil.

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