Trudeau Faces a New Foe as Conservatives Retake Power in Alberta

The return of conservatives to power in oil-rich Alberta adds another province to a growing bloc of opposition to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada and his government. Incomplete returns late Tuesday night showed the United Conservative Party led by Jason Kenney, a former Conservative federal cabinet minister, leading the New Democratic Party under Rachel Notley by a substantial margin. While neither Mr. Trudeau nor his Liberal Party have ever been particularly popular in Alberta, the loss of a left-of-center ally is not welcome news for him six months before the federal election. Mr. Trudeau has been weakened by allegations from a former attorney Trudeau has been weakened by allegations from a former attorney general that he improperly intervened in a criminal case. Much of Mr. Kenney’s campaign fed on economic and political frustration in the province, which has been afflicted by job losses in the energy industry since the global collapse of oil prices more than four years ago....

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Having a bunch of provinces run into the ground by conservative austerity and incompetence will probably help Trudeau. In fact, provinces tend to trend away from the federal government...

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Those oil industry jobs are not coming back...

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Some very fine people... on both sides

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(edited)

Great news for Albertans! It is about jobs, but really people wanted a premier who was not "embarassed" by the oil industry and someone who will defend Alberta's economic interests against foundations like David Suzuki, Greenpeace and Tides etc. Because they have falsely been targeting the oil industry. Those saying "jobs won't come back" are the same ones who said Oil and gas jobs in Texas would never come back when Obama left office! Toxic and negativity, give the guy a chance! oh Yeah and Trudeau is next. Over taxation and over regulation never created any jobs...anywhere. 

Edited by Bobby P
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3 hours ago, Pavel said:

Having a bunch of provinces run into the ground by conservative austerity and incompetence will probably help Trudeau. In fact, provinces tend to trend away from the federal government...

Like how Trudeau has run the country into the ground? How much worse can it get? 

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6 hours ago, ThunderBlade said:

Those oil industry jobs are not coming back...

I think you underestimate the creativity and the creative energies that seem to crop up in the oil patch.  The current approach to removing tarsands oil, exemplified by the Suncor approach, is to remove the overburden layers of sand with road graders, then dig up the tarry oilsands material with giant payloaders and haul them off for processing with more giant dump trucks.  The process itself requires lots of heat, and generates slag or waste material which is placed in these lagoons.  Eventually the overburden is replaced over the mess and it gets re-planted.  You will appreciate that that is not quite an elegant approach. 

Meanwhile, just for example and just for starters, you have these two very bright Canadians who joined forces with a money-man, an oil fuel distributor in Ukraine, and they set up "Petroteq" to mine tarsands oil in Utah.  That technique involves using a witches' brew of solvents, which apparently allows for the oil to be separated from the sand at lower temperatures, cleanses the sand, and then the sand can either be sold or can be placed back onto the mining site for land restoration. What that eliminates is the need for those big lagoons, and the higher heat for the Suncor removal process.  Can this be made to work, or is it all a charade, a "pump and dump" stock scheme?  (Or perhaps both.)  It is my speculation that these guys are onto something, and with enough capital, this would dramatically alter (lower) the extraction costs of Alberta oilsands if applied there.  Or. possibly, some other novel approach is developed by more seriously bright guys.  Hey, could be.

Assuming all that clicks, then yes those oilsands jobs will come back.  But you have to raise considerable capital, and also raise capital to construct downstream refineries, instead of the business model of selling low-value oilsands into export and importing high-value refined products.  Will Canada do that?  Would, or could, Alberta do that? Hard to say.  But I am not ruling that out. And, if it all clicks, then there is enough of that oil in those sandhills to make Alberta seriously rich. 

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3 hours ago, Bobby P said:

Over taxation and over regulation never created any jobs...anywhere. 

^

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Common Sense Canadians Crush the Moonbats in Alberta

"A massive defeat for the left-wing loons in Alberta Canada now means half the Canadian provinces are aligned against Justin’s rainbow-socks coalition and disastrous climate agenda.  Apparently having a common sense approach now means ‘right-of-center‘.

... The real-world effect of having an anti-business outlook is starting to have a real impact, and not just on massive corporations.  As Manny from Ottawa points out, even the smaller Canadian firms are giving up and heading to the more pro-business U.S.A.  In this example 240 Canadian jobs are moving…"

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5 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

I think you underestimate the creativity and the creative energies that seem to crop up in the oil patch.  The current approach to removing tarsands oil, exemplified by the Suncor approach, is to remove the overburden layers of sand with road graders, then dig up the tarry oilsands material with giant payloaders and haul them off for processing with more giant dump trucks.  The process itself requires lots of heat, and generates slag or waste material which is placed in these lagoons.  Eventually the overburden is replaced over the mess and it gets re-planted.  You will appreciate that that is not quite an elegant approach. 

Meanwhile, just for example and just for starters, you have these two very bright Canadians who joined forces with a money-man, an oil fuel distributor in Ukraine, and they set up "Petroteq" to mine tarsands oil in Utah.  That technique involves using a witches' brew of solvents, which apparently allows for the oil to be separated from the sand at lower temperatures, cleanses the sand, and then the sand can either be sold or can be placed back onto the mining site for land restoration. What that eliminates is the need for those big lagoons, and the higher heat for the Suncor removal process.  Can this be made to work, or is it all a charade, a "pump and dump" stock scheme?  (Or perhaps both.)  It is my speculation that these guys are onto something, and with enough capital, this would dramatically alter (lower) the extraction costs of Alberta oilsands if applied there.  Or. possibly, some other novel approach is developed by more seriously bright guys.  Hey, could be.

Assuming all that clicks, then yes those oilsands jobs will come back.  But you have to raise considerable capital, and also raise capital to construct downstream refineries, instead of the business model of selling low-value oilsands into export and importing high-value refined products.  Will Canada do that?  Would, or could, Alberta do that? Hard to say.  But I am not ruling that out. And, if it all clicks, then there is enough of that oil in those sandhills to make Alberta seriously rich. 

I worked for marathon years ago in a lab in 2010-2011 developing this. It's the real deal, it works. 

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1 minute ago, J.mo said:

I worked for marathon years ago in a lab in 2010-2011 developing this. It's the real deal, it works. 

That is encouraging!  I had the feeling that this approach had merit. Now, the biggie: can it work at a cost that makes the oil production cheap enough that it is competitive in US markets?  (Because that is the logical big market).  And if not, will it still work  in Canada if the country becomes a closed petroleum market? 

And the real biggie:  will Canadians accept a closed market, and put their coin into building, or rebuilding, their own refineries? Because without all the pieces, the puzzle never comes together. 

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3 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

That is encouraging!  I had the feeling that this approach had merit. Now, the biggie: can it work at a cost that makes the oil production cheap enough that it is competitive in US markets?  (Because that is the logical big market).  And if not, will it still work  in Canada if the country becomes a closed petroleum market? 

And the real biggie:  will Canadians accept a closed market, and put their coin into building, or rebuilding, their own refineries? Because without all the pieces, the puzzle never comes together. 

Well, I can tell you that it WAS profitable during the prices of 2010-2011 when I worked in the program. They couldn't figure it out fast enough to push into actual scalability. But it seemed like anything was profitable at $120/Bbl 😄.

At Today's prices, I'm not sure. I left the program and purchased my business in 2011 and haven't been in touch with engineers much since. 

 

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(edited)

6 minutes ago, J.mo said:

At Today's prices, I'm not sure.

But that is the story of all innovation.  The first units are incredibly expensive, and then after the guys get the feel of how to do it, the costs come tumbling down.  I bought my first electric calculator which only had four functions and it cost me $135.  Before that, we had to use slide rules. Now for $135 you would get one of those HP Scientific battery calculators with 9,000 scales on them, enough power to design the space shuttle.  

Have you attempted to buy a slide rule lately?  I actually found one in an off-campus store outside Columbia University on the Upper West Side of Manhattan.  It was covered with fifty years of dust.  The merchant charged me a hundred bucks for it  (talk about scalping!). I bought it to make my son a gift of how things used to be in science.  I don't think he ever used it, though.  Oh, well.  I tried.

Edited by Jan van Eck
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3 hours ago, Marina Schwarz said:

Kenney's not wasting any time, I see. Kenney moves to confront B.C., court Quebec over pipelines

Someone grab the popcorn and someone else grab the beer.

Agreed, this is going to be a fun show : )

Cutting off oil shipments to B.C. could be a very instructive lesson for the oil haters in B.C. to learn.

================================

Mr. Kenney said his cabinet’s first order of business after the swearing in will be to bring into force legislation passed, but never enacted, by the NDP government that would allow the province to cut off oil shipments to B.C. in retaliation for opposition to the Trans Mountain pipeline project. Several weeks later, when the legislature convenes in the third week of May, the government will introduce and pass legislation repealing the province’s carbon tax.

Both moves are expected to result in legal confrontations.

In his victory speech Tuesday, Mr. Kenney appealed for Quebec to support Alberta’s oil industry and allow new pipelines in the province. Quebec Premier François Legault shot down the suggestion Wednesday morning: “There is no social acceptability for a new oil pipeline in Quebec.”

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Yeah, same for Quebec and its "social acceptability." See how socially acceptable walking is. Which it should be. Totally. But I hear they like to drive their SUVs up there.

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7 minutes ago, Marina Schwarz said:

Yeah, same for Quebec and its "social acceptability." See how socially acceptable walking is. Which it should be. Totally. But I hear they like to drive their SUVs up there.

Lately I've been walking around 15 miles on Saturdays and walking 15+ miles on Sundays.  I highly recommend the exercise.

But I'm sure as heck not going to give up my car.  Because I'm not an oil hater, and cars are wonderfully useful machines.

Maybe B.C. and Quebec will opt to return to horse and buggy days.

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I'm a fan of walking, too. I've recently found it's conducive to clearer thinking. But I don't drive. I don't want to and luckily I don't need to. If I needed to, I would. Horse and buggy is a very green alternative, can't see what anyone would have against it.

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(edited)

Personally, I would like to see how they are able to get around in their "EVs" when it's -20C in Quebec during the winter! And since BC "treehuggers" are so green (they love their RAM/F150 trucks), I am sure they will love paying $3.00/L soon enough! They are already paying $1.70/L (Over $4/Gal). To provide proof that this is nothing but a political stunt and has NOTHING to do with environment. Oh Wait, what's this!? Vancouver's port is the largest exporter of coal in North America???

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/yes-anti-pipeline-vancouver-really-is-north-americas-largest-exporter-of-coal

Oh Wait there's more! Victoria, BC loves it's coast so much that:

https://globalnews.ca/news/4141162/danielle-smith-bc-environment/ 

Edited by Bobby P
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6 hours ago, Marina Schwarz said:

Horse and buggy is a very green alternative, can't see what anyone would have against it.

Hard on the horses. 

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14 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Common Sense Canadians Crush the Moonbats in Alberta

"A massive defeat for the left-wing loons in Alberta Canada now means half the Canadian provinces are aligned against Justin’s rainbow-socks coalition and disastrous climate agenda.  Apparently having a common sense approach now means ‘right-of-center‘.

... The real-world effect of having an anti-business outlook is starting to have a real impact, and not just on massive corporations.  As Manny from Ottawa points out, even the smaller Canadian firms are giving up and heading to the more pro-business U.S.A.  In this example 240 Canadian jobs are moving…"

As a Canadian, this is sad but expected. There have been many Canadian drilling companies who have moved rigs to the US due to the low utilization rate in Canada. It's great for USA, not so great of Canada. I know many Canadians (myself included) who have moved to the USA for work, I guess we will pay our taxes to uncle Sam and promote the US economy while we are at it (I save no money unfortunately and spend all of it locally) :) 

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14 hours ago, Marina Schwarz said:

Kenney's not wasting any time, I see. Kenney moves to confront B.C., court Quebec over pipelines

Just a moment, now.  That oil is private property, the royalties on that have been paid.  It belongs to the producer, Suncor and the others. It is a legal product.  There is no foundation for the proposition that a legal product, in private commerce, can be forbidden by some government bureaucrat or politician from being sold outside the Province.  Mr. Kenney can have all the malice in the world, and be personally filled with bile, but he is not going to be able to shut in that oil.  It does not belong to him, it does not belong to the Province, and unless he proposes to make the possession of oil a felony crime in Alberta, he ends up with nothing to say. 

You want to be cautious about politicians who like to run their mouth. They tend to do dangerous things. Just saying.

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On 4/18/2019 at 11:22 AM, Jan van Eck said:

Just a moment, now.  That oil is private property, the royalties on that have been paid.  It belongs to the producer, Suncor and the others. It is a legal product.  There is no foundation for the proposition that a legal product, in private commerce, can be forbidden by some government bureaucrat or politician from being sold outside the Province.  Mr. Kenney can have all the malice in the world, and be personally filled with bile, but he is not going to be able to shut in that oil.  It does not belong to him, it does not belong to the Province, and unless he proposes to make the possession of oil a felony crime in Alberta, he ends up with nothing to say. 

You want to be cautious about politicians who like to run their mouth. They tend to do dangerous things. Just saying.

I'm not convinced Kenney is any more "dangerous" than Notley. Not to mention he doesn't have an actual army. But he could certainly add a tariff on oil going to BC and "neglect" to add one for the other provinces. As dim as the bulbs are in BC, what with the long term effect of BC Bud, they'll eventually figure it all out. They might need to feel a pinch. When I have time I'll address your Petroteq snake oil. It's a scam and nowhere near profitable. Look up their predecessor on the same land,  KTIA who tried the same thing starting with more money, While prices were higher. 

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We are idling 2 million barrels a day spare capacity up here in fort mac waiting on new pipeline capacity.  But dont tell anyone it's supposed to be a secret. 

Suncor cost of production is down to $20 a barrel.

The gulf coast is frothing at the mouth for heavy crudes.

Envirotards still try to argue that oil sands is too expensive to produce and also that there is no market for more.

 

Lol. 

 

 

 

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