End of Sanction Waivers

But at the same time, looks like Saudi is going to give up its cut?

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, they wouldn't need top cut so much with the end of the sanction waivers. Prices are already going up.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

Right, but may i know your view of the numbers? Zero exports of Iran will wipe out around  1mbpd, and Saudi so far cuts by 1.2mbpd. And shale is probably will not ramp up too much within a short time period. Looks Saudi has to come back with a strong production surge, given not much coming from Russia, UAE?

Edited by Henry LXN
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Marina Schwarz said:

U.S. to announce end to sanctions waivers for Iran oil imports: source

There goes my hope for $40 oil. And a few other things. 

Not really. This is more of a sentiment based rally and will continue to be so.

India last month increased buying oil from Iran and China, I assume, will still continue to do so regardless of the waivers.

Even though OPEC ministers have reiterated their commitment for the production cuts...I don't think prices will remain at this level.

Well not $40 any time soon but can certainly come down give or take $10.

Let's short some contracts @Marina Schwarz???

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Henry LXN said:

Right, but may i know your view of the numbers? Zero exports of Iran will wipe out around  1mbpd, and Saudi so far cuts by 1.2mbpd. And shale is probably will not ramp up too much within a short time period. Looks Saudi has to come back with a strong production surge, given not much coming from Russia, UAE?

They might not want to reverse the cuts, whatever they said today. They like oil higher, after all. If they announce a complete reversal, prices will start down.

@Osama, let's short those babies! :D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

47 minutes ago, Marina Schwarz said:

They might not want to reverse the cuts, whatever they said today. They like oil higher, after all. If they announce a complete reversal, prices will start down.

@Osama, let's short those babies! :D

I have this feeling that KSA will now have to comply and when (and Trump certainly will) demand them to increase production they might have to..and this will happen before the June meeting!

 

Read this: https://www.forbes.com/sites/ellenrwald/2019/04/21/if-sanctions-cut-irans-oil-exports-to-zero-would-saudi-arabia-really-fill-the-void/amp/

Edited by Osama
Addition
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Weeeell, it will certainly be interesting to watch. Season 4 of Game of Barrels.

  • Great Response! 1
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I hope OPEC/Russia open the valves up a bit, I think Oil has had a good rally but if it gets too high - it will affect demand. Ideally, I would like to see Brent between $60-70 not anything more. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I dont see the Saudis increasing quotas until they can get the prices back to a selling price that would aid in their economic recovery. The last time they had that price they reverse course to assist President Trump with his sanctions on Iran which ended up flooding the market and driving down prices which incidentally appears to have damaged the US shale industry that is having a difficult time attracting new investments even in the face of higher oil prices.

  • Like 1
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Issued on: April 22, 2019

President Donald J. Trump has decided not to reissue Significant Reduction Exceptions (SREs) when they expire in early May. This decision is intended to bring Iran’s oil exports to zero, denying the regime its principal source of revenue. The United States, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, three of the world’s great energy producers, along with our friends and allies, are committed to ensuring that global oil markets remain adequately supplied. We have agreed to take timely action to assure that global demand is met as all Iranian oil is removed from the market. The White House confirmed on Monday morning that it will end all waivers from Iran sanctions when they expire on May 2. When the US reimposed sanctions in November, 6-month waivers were granted to China, India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Turkey, Italy, and Greece.

The Trump Administration and our allies are determined to sustain and expand the maximum economic pressure campaign against Iran to end the regime’s destabilizing activity threatening the United States, our partners and allies, and security in the Middle East. The President’s decision to eliminate all SREs follows the designation of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a Foreign Terrorist Organization, demonstrating the United States commitment to disrupting Iran’s terror network and changing the regime’s malign behavior. We welcome the support of our friends and allies for this effort.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just now, ceo_energemsier said:

Issued on: April 22, 2019

President Donald J. Trump has decided not to reissue Significant Reduction Exceptions (SREs) when they expire in early May. This decision is intended to bring Iran’s oil exports to zero, denying the regime its principal source of revenue. The United States, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, three of the world’s great energy producers, along with our friends and allies, are committed to ensuring that global oil markets remain adequately supplied. We have agreed to take timely action to assure that global demand is met as all Iranian oil is removed from the market. The White House confirmed on Monday morning that it will end all waivers from Iran sanctions when they expire on May 2. When the US reimposed sanctions in November, 6-month waivers were granted to China, India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Turkey, Italy, and Greece.

The Trump Administration and our allies are determined to sustain and expand the maximum economic pressure campaign against Iran to end the regime’s destabilizing activity threatening the United States, our partners and allies, and security in the Middle East. The President’s decision to eliminate all SREs follows the designation of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a Foreign Terrorist Organization, demonstrating the United States commitment to disrupting Iran’s terror network and changing the regime’s malign behavior. We welcome the support of our friends and allies for this effort.

Greece and Italie will more than likely increase their purchase of Russian Crude oil (Urals Blend) which is easily available and lower cost for transport to their refineries coming out of the Black Sea ports. China will also increase its purchase of Russian Crude oil via the rail system, Russian pipeline to China and vessels, including additional purchases from the OPEC states (Saudi, Q-8, UAE, Nigeria etc) and also some from the US, Brazil and Canada and other barrels they can snag. Same goes for India and others as well, while Japan, Singapore, Taiwan, SK will try to increase their volumes from the US. China and India may try to push their luck with trying to get away with taking Iranian barrels.

 

  • Great Response! 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, Marina Schwarz said:

Weeeell, it will certainly be interesting to watch. Season 4 of Game of Barrels.

Ooooooh,     I'm stealing that Game of Barrels line thank you very much   😁

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You're very welcome. I'm not even watching the show but it's everywhere around me, so this came naturally. Cool pic, Tom!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks Marina.  Our company had new photos taken for our staff profile photos.  Since my old social media photo was around 3 or 4 years old, figured I should update my profile photo here too.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Chinese seem more than reluctant to stop purchasing Iranian oil...

"China opposes the unilateral sanctions and so-called "long-arm jurisdictions" imposed by the US. Our cooperation with Iran is open, transparent, lawful and legitimate, and thus should be respected. Our government is committed to upholding the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese companies and will play a positive and constructive role in upholding the stability of the global energy market."

(Geng Shuang, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeperson)

https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/t1656557.shtml

 

 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And here is that rogue ship, owned by some unknown corporation in some anonymous ship's registry, which has included, in no particular order:  India, Malta, Cyprus, Belize, Bolivia (a major maritime power, to be sure), the Marshall Islands (with that registry kept in the State of Virginia, of all places!), Iran, and probably a few others the cops have not yet caught up with. 

image.png.784f0950ca47ec62c6f704a5a463e446.png

Notice how it is sitting high on the beach after having discharged its cargo.  It was anchored and light, the storm wind caught all that exposed metal, and pushed and dragged the anchors until it beached.  

What can the Americans do about it?  Well, they could always go put a torpedo into it. Nothing like a busted tanker to stop it trading in rogue oil. Then again, the Iranians seem to take the point of view that it is the Americans that have gone rogue.  Depends on your point of view, I suppose. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Unfortunately for some posters here I see $84 Brent in the coming months, never in a straight line of course. Those on here expecting $40 are in some dreamland because at that price producers lose money and cannot afford to spend on new capital projects. The Shale industry in USA ( that produces the wrong type of oil by the way) would disappear over night. I suspect that $80 Brent would be most beneficial to consumers and the industry alike. It is not easy to produce a barrel of oil, people work very hard in dangerous conditions to do it and the price should reflect that.

The oil price should NOT be a political tool but the president of USA has made it one and he no doubt will shoot himself in the foot with it.

 

  • Like 2
  • Great Response! 1
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

And here is that rogue ship, owned by some unknown corporation in some anonymous ship's registry, which has included, in no particular order:  India, Malta, Cyprus, Belize, Bolivia (a major maritime power, to be sure), the Marshall Islands (with that registry kept in the State of Virginia, of all places!), Iran, and probably a few others the cops have not yet caught up with. 

image.png.784f0950ca47ec62c6f704a5a463e446.png

Notice how it is sitting high on the beach after having discharged its cargo.  It was anchored and light, the storm wind caught all that exposed metal, and pushed and dragged the anchors until it beached.  

What can the Americans do about it?  Well, they could always go put a torpedo into it. Nothing like a busted tanker to stop it trading in rogue oil. Then again, the Iranians seem to take the point of view that it is the Americans that have gone rogue.  Depends on your point of view, I suppose. 

This ship sailed also under  Sierra Leone, Togo and Panama flag among others... And changed the name nine times since last August.

Now it's named Tour 2 but was previously also...

  • Vessel Name: TOUR82 - Flag: PA - Last Reported: 2018-11-15 19:27:00
  • Vessel Name: TOUR 0 - Flag: PA - Last Reported: 2018-10-21 14:14:00
  • Vessel Name: TOUR 0C - Flag: PA - Last Reported: 2018-10-19 14:40:00
  • Vessel Name: TOUR 0E - Flag: PA - Last Reported: 2018-09-27 04:55:00
  • Vessel Name: TOUR 0F - Flag: PA - Last Reported: 2018-09-27 01:07:00
  • Vessel Name: TOUR 2 UTE - Flag: PA - Last Reported: 2018-09-24 18:00:00
  • Vessel Name: TOUR 0K - Flag: PA - Last Reported: 2018-09-19 20:32:00
  • Vessel Name: TOUR 0EAJ  - Flag: PA - Last Reported: 2018-08-24 07:39:00
http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:657867/mmsi:354969000/imo:9364112/vessel:TOUR_2#vOrIqzOt6GeL6fZR.99
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

7 hours ago, Guillaume Albasini said:

This ship sailed also under  Sierra Leone, Togo and Panama flag among others... And changed the name nine times since last August.

Now it's named Tour 2 but was previously also...

  • Vessel Name: TOUR82 - Flag: PA - Last Reported: 2018-11-15 19:27:00
  • Vessel Name: TOUR 0 - Flag: PA - Last Reported: 2018-10-21 14:14:00
  • Vessel Name: TOUR 0C - Flag: PA - Last Reported: 2018-10-19 14:40:00
  • Vessel Name: TOUR 0E - Flag: PA - Last Reported: 2018-09-27 04:55:00
  • Vessel Name: TOUR 0F - Flag: PA - Last Reported: 2018-09-27 01:07:00
  • Vessel Name: TOUR 2 UTE - Flag: PA - Last Reported: 2018-09-24 18:00:00
  • Vessel Name: TOUR 0K - Flag: PA - Last Reported: 2018-09-19 20:32:00
  • Vessel Name: TOUR 0EAJ  - Flag: PA - Last Reported: 2018-08-24 07:39:00
http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:657867/mmsi:354969000/imo:9364112/vessel:TOUR_2#vOrIqzOt6GeL6fZR.99

They can flag reflag all they want. How many of these rogue vessels will be operated? what will be the costs if they are caught and punished?

The US Navy is very capable of enforcing sanctions and naval blockades.

If it comes down to it, and the US has to enforce the sanctions , the US will , with assistance of others if needed if not on its own, financial black listing and targeting will be a critical resource. The Treasury through the OFAC and FinCEN will be vigilant.

Edited by ceo_energemsier
typo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't think the waivers had any effect other than saving face for Trump. Nobody will drop Iran to appease him.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/23/iran-sanctions-goldman-sachs-rules-out-an-oil-price-rally.html

 

"

Goldman Sachs expects the United States’ decision to end exemptions from sanctions for countries still buying oil from Iran to have a limited impact on crude prices, even though the timing is likely to have caught energy market participants by surprise.

“While we acknowledge the near-term upside price risks, we reiterate our fundamentally derived Brent price trading range of $70-75 per barrel for the second quarter of 2019,” the U.S. investment bank said in a research note published Monday, Reuters reported."

 

International benchmark Brent crude traded at $74.40 Tuesday morning, up around 0.5%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $65.93, almost 0.6% higher.

 

 

_____________________________________________

My 2 cents re. above Goldman Sachs:

It will XMAS for the rest of the year if those two benchmark hold in that range for the rest of the year. CHEERS!!

I will buy everyone a case of DOM !!!! LOL

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, Leko said:

It is not easy to produce a barrel of oil, people work very hard in dangerous conditions to do it and the price should reflect that.

The truth in this statement, contrasted by the ways the market appears (to me) to work at circumventing/ignoring this fact, tells me that markets value oil price volatility more than the energy produced by it. MK Hubbert rolling in his grave...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites