Iran Sabre Rattles Over the Straights of Hormuz

Once again Iran’s rhetoric is beefed up regarding blocking the straights of Hormuz. I believe this time we may be the closest we have been for a while to see some kind of situation develop. If Iran is going to be strangled into zero exports it would certainly be the time to act on their rhetoric.

80% of the Gulfs exports run through this tiny channel of international water, 75% of the straight is under 150 meters depth, a choke point if there ever was one. So if Iran is in a stranglehold the natural reaction to being choked is to try and choke the opposition, this may get interesting.

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Firstly not crazy answering myself, I have been accused of this in the past...

Anyway, looking at this from an Iranian perspective, you are the founding member of OPEC being held to ransom by a non OPEC country and are being stabbed in the back by other OPEC neighbors. Neighbors who will willingly take up the slack of your misfortune. This undoubtedly will isolate you further and back you into a corner. Like a wounded wildcat you would fight, we all would. IMO something is going to give and if Iran does block the Straights we are looking at the next middle Eastern conflict, with far too many players involved.

Am I missing something or can you never push a country to far to throw the first rock?

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Wars have started over far less, but Iran has a long history of avoiding the front on attack in recent history. The 80s Iraq/Iran war is a semi-exception, and that went badly for everyone. We are doing are best to get them to shoot first.

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Iran is relying upon a naval force that consists of a few diesel subs and several hundred or more small speedboats that utilize the "swarm" theory (too many to blow up before at least one manages to get through the AEGIS systems) and of course surface to surface missiles. It is a suicidal plan not too distant from the strategies during the '80's when Iran confronted Iraq with children soldiers intentionally sent out to be gassed to death. Our US Navy is well equipped to handle the current Iranian vituperative behavior and at well over a thousand rounds a minute (AEGIS), well equipped to knock off hundreds of these speedboat attacks.  I do not know who will shoot first, but I agree with John that this is going to happen pretty soon provided the sanctions are more effective than before.

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On 4/22/2019 at 10:28 AM, James Regan said:

Firstly not crazy answering myself, I have been accused of this in the past...

Anyway, looking at this from an Iranian perspective, you are the founding member of OPEC being held to ransom by a non OPEC country and are being stabbed in the back by other OPEC neighbors. Neighbors who will willingly take up the slack of your misfortune. This undoubtedly will isolate you further and back you into a corner. Like a wounded wildcat you would fight, we all would. IMO something is going to give and if Iran does block the Straights we are looking at the next middle Eastern conflict, with far too many players involved.

Am I missing something or can you never push a country to far to throw the first rock?

Iran also being stabbed in the back by Russia. They have a very weak hand.

3 hours ago, John Foote said:

We are doing are best to get them to shoot first.

Yup. I think we are goading them to attack us or try to close the strait. The only question is will they take the bait.

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Iran's parliament approves bill labelling US army as 'terrorist'

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/04/iran-parliament-approves-bill-labeling-army-terrorist-190423111221587.html

I hope this will remain in the "rhetorical escalation" category on both sides. Playing with fire on top of an oil barrel pile isn't really the smartest thing to do.

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, Stephen T. Harris, CPL said:

Iran is relying upon a naval force that consists of a few diesel subs and several hundred or more small speedboats that utilize the "swarm" theory (too many to blow up before at least one manages to get through the AEGIS systems) and of course surface to surface missiles. It is a suicidal plan not too distant from the strategies during the '80's when Iran confronted Iraq with children soldiers intentionally sent out to be gassed to death. Our US Navy is well equipped to handle the current Iranian vituperative behavior and at well over a thousand rounds a minute (AEGIS), well equipped to knock off hundreds of these speedboat attacks.  I do not know who will shoot first, but I agree with John that this is going to happen pretty soon provided the sanctions are more effective than before.

You are on point!!!

Iranian navy has no chance against the USN. The Iranians may sneak in one or two "incidents", "attacks" after which their navy will essentially become future marine life reefs in the AG.

Anyone remember the 80s when they mined the AG etc. , they didnt win!!

Iran, will hiss and piss , growl and snarl , but they cant do much on the actual front, but what they do best is what gets them into these situations to begin with and the labeling and branding they get for those actions and being sponsors of those actions!

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13 hours ago, ceo_energemsier said:

You are on point!!!

Iranian navy has no chance against the USN. The Iranians may sneak in one or two "incidents", "attacks" after which their navy will essentially become future marine life reefs in the AG.

Anyone remember the 80s when they mined the AG etc. , they didnt win!!

Iran, will hiss and piss , growl and snarl , but they cant do much on the actual front, but what they do best is what gets them into these situations to begin with and the labeling and branding they get for those actions and being sponsors of those actions!

We will go in and destroy the antiquated Iranian navy. And may go a step further per Saudi's blessings, as long as they are the ones paying for the incursion. Why do Saudis bidding without being paid? Iran is no friend of USA but KSA is even more a mortal enemy. Target practice? 

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