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Mehrdad Nematollahi

Big Risk of trump administration

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I think there is a difference this time with  ten months back that the sanctions was announced by president trump.

This time president trump did not announce the termination of waiver  .he was silent and was not quite sure about the outcome.

Instead his administration( Mr. Pompeo ) with the support of Mr.Bolton announced that.

One million barrel per day is one percent of total oil production of the world  but cutting it to zero will be very risky  from two points of view.

1- It will increase the risk of war  and even if it not happens , it will keep an atmosphere of uncertainty for oil trading.

2- The world is over estimating the extra capacity of Saudi  Aramco. Every body knows the natural depletion rate of oil production that happens in any oil field.I suppose they can not fill the gap.

The real shortage in oil market is for  heavy crude . It makes turbulance in the market .

Mr .Pompeo and Mr.Bolton has put themselves in big risk.

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