VIX increases as approach economic summit. Backwardation gap at recent historical record. Flood of supply coming toward end of year.

(edited)

.Marked SUPPLY INCREASE later in year. 

* Just like last year , surge in production occurred in 2nd half of year.

* Add to that major pipeline capacity increase from Permian to gulf. I'm hearing Completion Service Companies hiring and training for year-end demand going thru first half 2020.  Producers have been tempering production and holding back  completion of DUCs because lack  of pipeline capacity.  That will all change abruptly.

* Gulf of Mexico deepwater thriving. Increased activity producing new record volumes (over 2 mm bbls/day and growing).  This growth will accellerate going into 2020 and beyond.

All this supply will bring WTI down to $55 to $60 range. Could dip lower. 

I cashed out on the put/call spreads I sold and the covered calls I sold.

Better a month early than a day late.

Doesn't hurt ringing the cash register.

I would play the Xi / Trump meeting because price will take at least a 10 % jump one way or the other based on . . .  Deal . . . No Deal. I'd Collar if VIX wasn't so expensive.

Not sure about Brent . . . . Too many variable. . .   Too many possibilities good and bad.  Have to be quick to play Brent at this time. 

Edited by Falcon

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(edited)

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Edited by Falcon

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