Solar Panels at 26 cents per watt

Panels for sale within the US, warehoused in Miami. I'm not promoting any particular brand or business, therefore I'm not naming names.

SolarPanels26CentsPerWatt.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have a quote from a vendor in China for solar cells (not panels) at 11.4 cents per watt.

Given that price as of 2019, and a decline of 20% in price each year...

The lowest cost cells in 2020 will cost around 9.1 cents

2021 7.2 cents

2022 5.8 cents

2023 4.6 cents

2024 3.7 cents

2025 2.9 cents

2026 2.3 cents

2027 1.9 cents

2028 1.5 cents

In one respect these numbers are meaningless because cell price isn't panel price or system price - perhaps it's equivalent to pricing a coal burning power plant based on the price of steel. However, each lowering of this price also push down on the ceiling other energy sources can charge. Maybe not by 20% per year, but whatever it is is enough to cause pain.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have come to the conclusion that the largest advantage of solar panels, mounted on the roof, is the air gap between the panel and the roof. 

To explain: "if" the panels are mounted so that the support rails run vertically, "then" air will naturally flow upwards across the actual roof surface, between the panels and the roofing material.  That air flow will keep that roof cool.  Also the panels themselves will be absorbing the sun beating down, and while the panels may get hot, the roof surface being set off from those panels and cooled by the moving airflow will stay cool, or at least cooler.  Thus, a properly designed and installed solar panel on the roof will dramatically lower (possibly eliminate) the bills for air conditioning. 

Now if you forego the farce of connecting into the grid and use the panel-developed power internally, then you avoid the issues of dealing with that power company and its interconnect problems.  

If you don't have the cash for all the panel cells needed to cover the whole roof, then install the mounting rails and put "blanks" up there, flat metal filler panels that will channel airflow and reflect all that heat off the roof and keep it out of your attic ☺️.  You can add solar-cells as you go along, later on :D.  

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Name:romano
  • Country or city where you reside-FIJI
  • Industry that you work in- solar
  • Company- MOH NHS SOLAR
  • Years of Experience-6YRS
  • Expertise- DESIGN AND INSTALLATION OF SOLAR HOME SYSTEM
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On 5/28/2019 at 12:44 PM, Jan van Eck said:

I have come to the conclusion that the largest advantage of solar panels, mounted on the roof, is the air gap between the panel and the roof. 

To explain: "if" the panels are mounted so that the support rails run vertically, "then" air will naturally flow upwards across the actual roof surface, between the panels and the roofing material.  That air flow will keep that roof cool.  Also the panels themselves will be absorbing the sun beating down, and while the panels may get hot, the roof surface being set off from those panels and cooled by the moving airflow will stay cool, or at least cooler.  Thus, a properly designed and installed solar panel on the roof will dramatically lower (possibly eliminate) the bills for air conditioning. 

Now if you forego the farce of connecting into the grid and use the panel-developed power internally, then you avoid the issues of dealing with that power company and its interconnect problems.  

If you don't have the cash for all the panel cells needed to cover the whole roof, then install the mounting rails and put "blanks" up there, flat metal filler panels that will channel airflow and reflect all that heat off the roof and keep it out of your attic ☺️.  You can add solar-cells as you go along, later on :D.  

It's true about the air flow effect and reducing temperatures in the house.  Until we installed solar (23 panels) we had the aircon running several weeks during the summer months, and for minimum 3 hours at a time.

Last summer we ran the aircon 3 or 4 times only, and then just to expel the hot air late in the day.

While solar prices are declining annually, the larger declines are in battery storage prices, expected to be in the 10-15% compound annual rate over the next 5 years.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Red said:

While solar prices are declining annually, the larger declines are in battery storage prices, expected to be in the 10-15% compound annual rate over the next 5 years. 

I suspect what will happen is that some clever researcher will dream up a totally new battery chemistry, which will dramatically lower battery costs.  You get these quantum disruptions in just about every technology.  Look for example at the dramatic impact that horizontal drilling has had on oil extraction. And how prices drop.  I anticipate that such disruptions will also occur in the handling and distillation of heavy oilsands in Alberta.  The solvent technique may well be one of them.  We shall see. And if so, then that unleashes hundreds of billions of barrels of new oil into the market. 

  • Like 1
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

I suspect what will happen is that some clever researcher will dream up a totally new battery chemistry, which will dramatically lower battery costs.  You get these quantum disruptions in just about every technology.  Look for example at the dramatic impact that horizontal drilling has had on oil extraction. And how prices drop.  I anticipate that such disruptions will also occur in the handling and distillation of heavy oilsands in Alberta.  The solvent technique may well be one of them.  We shall see. And if so, then that unleashes hundreds of billions of barrels of new oil into the market. 

If MGX gets commercialised as they plan, it could be a game changer.  It simultaneously generates and regenerates, making off-grid home building very simple.  Adding an EV with bi-directional flow negates the need for extra battery backup.

The future is bright, albeit unclear.

 

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On 5/28/2019 at 2:31 AM, Meredith Poor said:

I have a quote from a vendor in China for solar cells (not panels) at 11.4 cents per watt.

Given that price as of 2019, and a decline of 20% in price each year...

The lowest cost cells in 2020 will cost around 9.1 cents

2021 7.2 cents

2022 5.8 cents

2023 4.6 cents

2024 3.7 cents

2025 2.9 cents

2026 2.3 cents

2027 1.9 cents

2028 1.5 cents

In one respect these numbers are meaningless because cell price isn't panel price or system price - perhaps it's equivalent to pricing a coal burning power plant based on the price of steel. However, each lowering of this price also push down on the ceiling other energy sources can charge. Maybe not by 20% per year, but whatever it is is enough to cause pain.

With the cost of grid tie inverters falling through the floor this is a game changer. 

For domestic installations even without export arrangements the simplest solution is to dump surplus electricity via an immersion into a water tank. You can also shift a certain amount of demand to day time - for example put freezers and Fridges on time switches. 

Im just about to complete on the purchase of a 5 Bed house with South, East and West roof faces and am looking at options to DIY install 1.2 KW on each roof face (will need two grid tie inverters) and even without feed tariffs the annual return will be 11-12%. Our next car will be an EV so that can be another 'dump' for surplus electricity. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On 5/28/2019 at 11:15 PM, Red said:

If MGX gets commercialised as they plan, it could be a game changer.  It simultaneously generates and regenerates, making off-grid home building very simple.  Adding an EV with bi-directional flow negates the need for extra battery backup.

The future is bright, albeit unclear.

 

Looks Promising, But after Looking at the Recent Stock history my guess is they are nowhere near Delivering.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On 5/27/2019 at 9:44 PM, Jan van Eck said:

I have come to the conclusion that the largest advantage of solar panels, mounted on the roof, is the air gap between the panel and the roof. 

To explain: "if" the panels are mounted so that the support rails run vertically, "then" air will naturally flow upwards across the actual roof surface, between the panels and the roofing material.  That air flow will keep that roof cool. 

Meant to be funny no doubt, but my power consumption did go down and I thought this was part of the reason. No one I contacted in the industry had any info on it though. I had the impression the attic was a bit cooler, but still dam hot (Texas).

I suspect the temperature drop would only be a few degrees. And anyone thinking of going to solar on their roof, step 1, steps to insulate the house, step 2, roof in great shape because it's going to be a serious PIA to reshingle.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, John Foote said:

Meant to be funny no doubt

No, I am perfectly serious.

The temp drop should be substantial, just as if you are at the beach and go from lying on a blanket on the sand to sitting under a beach umbrella.  You are cutting off direct heat load. 

The probable reason you experienced only a slight temp drop may be that the installation rack beams that were attached to the roof itself were run horizontal instead of vertical.  That disrupts natural air flow, trapping air underneath the panels.  While air is a good insulator, trapped hot air will convey and transmit heat by convection to the roof surface.  These installers don't seem to grasp that. 

Another way to seriously cool your roof, and likely eliminate the need for air conditioning in temperate climates, would be to place a soaker hose or a hose with a fog nozzle up there on the ridge line.  A thin dew of water would form on the roof and evaporate, taking away lots of heat in the process.  But you do need water, hard to find in a drought area.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

12 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

No, I am perfectly serious.

The temp drop should be substantial, just as if you are at the beach and go from lying on a blanket on the sand to sitting under a beach umbrella.  You are cutting off direct heat load. 

The not serious part was that shading the roof was a bigger money maker than say, 3kw of power outputs.

I don't recall the orientation of the rack mounts, but with the average Texas thunderstorm, the heck with air flow, you don't want to run mini-dams for the water and accelerate how long to you need to re-shingle. As it was in parts of the roof I ran diverters for the water, coordinated all the way into a mini-collection area/breakfast nook, with a french drain. And if the lucky homeowner didn't periodically clean drain you had a new pond near one door.  In just minutes it would be feet deep.

I literally cracked my jaw, compound fractures and dislocated right wrist, falling off the roof cleaning out the system and being to casual about it. Falling is easy, but the landing is a bitch.

Edited by John Foote
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0