Where is oil headed? 45 or 79?

(edited)

When i travel i can never get into oilprice so i cant keep up with you guys most of the time, and only  the couple of days im at home, can i post.

Right now WTI @ 66-67 was the last high and though 70 was next, too much selling pressure caused the selloff in crude, which is now headed to at least 52 - 56 range. 

A potential low of about 45 could also be in the works.

The above is all based on my charts. 

But fundamentally what is happening.

Since prices started to go up in 2019, explorations in US have gone through the roof, even in new developments around the world. The Embargo on Iran is having little effect, a war could turn prices around. At this point oil is facing oversupply. Green deal causing developments in alternate fuels. So for now look for prices to range between 40s and 50s.

If for some chance 60s break again then 70s is next, this could happen should tensions flare up in Iran.

 

image.png.b10fe694a6a99e52a4c93b3a38658744.png

 

Edited by Top Oil Trader
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JJ. For a long time, i was with you brotha. 

Now, You are just redundantly repeating what everyone else says, and what even the 30 year old gas station dude knows and understands. 

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On 5/27/2019 at 5:05 PM, Top Oil Trader said:

When i travel i can never get into oilprice so i cant keep up with you guys most of the time, and only  the couple of days im at home, can i post.

Right now WTI @ 66-67 was the last high and though 70 was next, too much selling pressure caused the selloff in crude, which is now headed to at least 52 - 56 range. 

A potential low of about 45 could also be in the works.

The above is all based on my charts. 

But fundamentally what is happening.

Since prices started to go up in 2019, explorations in US have gone through the roof, even in new developments around the world. The Embargo on Iran is having little effect, a war could turn prices around. At this point oil is facing oversupply. Green deal causing developments in alternate fuels. So for now look for prices to range between 40s and 50s.

If for some chance 60s break again then 70s is next, this could happen should tensions flare up in Iran.

 

image.png.b10fe694a6a99e52a4c93b3a38658744.png

 

Indeed. I agree with that. We will see or we might see a steep drop if and when the next $325 bn of tariffs in goods go into effect...which will be after Trump and Xi meets by the end of June 2019.

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34 minutes ago, Osama said:

Indeed. I agree with that. We will see or we might see a steep drop if and when the next $325 bn of tariffs in goods go into effect...which will be after Trump and Xi meets by the end of June 2019.

Perfect Storm

US China Trade War continues until melt down for both.

Iran goes to war with KSA UAE and USA

                              V

Greenies convince the globe we don’t need oil- Doesn’t really affect anything!

US Shale taking up the slack

Too many variables to predict anything with charts too many Geopolitical situation which would outweigh the fundamentals.

As always the price of oil will ebb and flow like water.

BWMF

 

EC36BDB3-86B7-4C29-8871-A57943D67E12.jpeg

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You will see on the charts the week before us goes to war.

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Immediate short term target is 49.5 - 51. The Sauds will use all the power to prevent further breakdowns. A massive oil cut or a war will make prices stabilize at those prices. A war between the US/Sauds and Iran would make prices go past 70. Remember the Sauds claim Iran attacked one of their oil tankers, you might say that's two birds with one stone. The key man to follow and see if war escalates is this man.

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If I was able to know this then I would be able to make a fortune on the commodities futures markets.  However, since I don't know the answer I am not willing to take a speculative risk on it.  I seem to remember that when ENRON collapsed, some employees fell with the company and never got back up and other employees continued where they left off and went on to make big fortunes. 

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Well if yuu know charts you can make a fortune, since most are clueless its always a risk for them.

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4 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Immediate short term target is 49.5 - 51. The Sauds will use all the power to prevent further breakdowns. A massive oil cut or a war will make prices stabilize at those prices. A war between the US/Sauds and Iran would make prices go past 70. Remember the Sauds claim Iran attacked one of their oil tankers, you might say that's two birds with one stone. The key man to follow and see if war escalates is this man.

😊

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Hey folks,

Very pleased to join the Community. I am a retired UN Technocrat/Diplomat and a Professor of Oceanography and the Blue Economy. I have worked in the Oil and Gas Industry variously as Petroleum Engineer, Reservoir Geologist and Petroleum Geo-chemist. I am a Renewable Energy Specialist, Climate Change Expert and Energy Security Mentor. I hold a Ph.d from the University of London and a DIC from the Royal School of Mines, Imperial College of Science and Technology, London, UK( both, 1980). I am a Fellow of the Nigerian Academy of Science, a Distinguished Fellow of the Nigerian Association of Energy Economics, et cetera.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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(edited)

 

*comment deleted*

Edited by specinho
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Here is the simplistic way to make money on Crude.

Lesson 1. Crude doesn't like investors who are bottom feeders, and will punish them severely for trying.

Lesson 2. When all media and analysts are bullish on Crude and give higher targets immediately go short.

Lesson 3. When the worst gloom sets in from media and analyst predicting further lows, go long.

or

Just figure out the charts, easier said than done, since there are no good methods out there used by traders, to figure out the correct future prices points in crude. in 99% of the cases its just a best guess.

Having said the above, crude is still going down.

Blowing up the 3 Syrian Iranian oil tankers did not help to push up prices, war threats still not bring up prices, and the sauds claiming iran fired at their tanker, still brought prices lower. Again key man to follow is john Bolton, he words will tell us if there will be some war coming up for some reason, could be any reason, could be even if Iran says something that Trump says is a threat. Close to that point prices should at least stabilize, and maybe go up.

Now although the bottom hasn't reached yet, wti  will give us fake up moves, from big bargain hunters, which will cause your retail mom and pop investor to go long, until reality sets in and it drops again.

 

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8 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Here is the simplistic way to make money on Crude.

Lesson 1. Crude doesn't like investors who are bottom feeders, and will punish them severely for trying.

Lesson 2. When all media and analysts are bullish on Crude and give higher targets immediately go short.

Lesson 3. When the worst gloom sets in from media and analyst predicting further lows, go long.

or

Just figure out the charts, easier said than done, since there are no good methods out there used by traders, to figure out the correct future prices points in crude. in 99% of the cases its just a best guess.

Having said the above, crude is still going down.

Blowing up the 3 Syrian Iranian oil tankers did not help to push up prices, war threats still not bring up prices, and the sauds claiming iran fired at their tanker, still brought prices lower. Again key man to follow is john Bolton, he words will tell us if there will be some war coming up for some reason, could be any reason, could be even if Iran says something that Trump says is a threat. Close to that point prices should at least stabilize, and maybe go up.

Now although the bottom hasn't reached yet, wti  will give us fake up moves, from big bargain hunters, which will cause your retail mom and pop investor to go long, until reality sets in and it drops again.

 

I think that the price indicated by you will not be reached :)

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Why oil is still headed lower.

Iran’s offshore oil production hasn’t seen any reduction and the country just loaded crude for export, said Hamid Bovard, head of the Iranian Offshore Oil Co. this means oversupply.

Besides charts showing further declines.

Just remember it wont be going straight down, bargain hunters will prevent the drop at key support levels. For now absent major developments in Iran, expect more pain.

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I just looked at some finer points on my WTI charts my 51 target was a conservative target, yes WTI could bounce up a bit, but now looks like it will eventually go below 50 too. if 50 - 46 doesn't hold, which means the Sauds have lost control of the prices, the plunge could be much worse. But again all the Sauds need to do is cut by another 500,000 mill a day, or come up with a serious excuse for a war with Iran. Blowing up the 3 iranian oil tankers did not budge oil prices. 

Here are some fundamental reasons for crude still to go down.

Explorations  going up in the  Artic by Rosneft, many small players getting into the game, even Israel just bought a production concern for 2 Billion, and the US getting more efficient by the week. Basically everyone now, and their grandmother is now getting in the game. Iran still pumping out as much oil as before the embargo.

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The  truth is about charts  what you read in the books and you see online, those things only works sometimes, and for that specific set of data, but apply these same parameters anywhere else even on the same instrument, and this setup fails. So of course i dont use  any of those indicators or patterns etc, which just lead to failure.

However, It would be nice if you could use those indicator in some form or fashion to almost predict highs and lows, after all using indicators could make trading a lot more simple. So in my spare time, been working on what set of indicators, well what sort of modified indicators in combination gives us almost the perfect long or short signal. I will admit you need to get used to it, since it does look kind of complex and colorful, almost looks like abstract art. But it looks like this is it. And though I said WTI will go up first a bit which it is right now, went from 52 to almost 54, should rise above 54 now. WTI will still be heading down to lower prices than earlier, thats fact, even based on the indicator charts.

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2 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

The  truth is about charts  what you read in the books and you see online, those things only works sometimes, and for that specific set of data, but apply these same parameters anywhere else even on the same instrument, and this setup fails. So of course i dont use  any of those indicators or patterns etc, which just lead to failure.

However, It would be nice if you could use those indicator in some form or fashion to almost predict highs and lows, after all using indicators could make trading a lot more simple. So in my spare time, been working on what set of indicators, well what sort of modified indicators in combination gives us almost the perfect long or short signal. I will admit you need to get used to it, since it does look kind of complex and colorful, almost looks like abstract art. But it looks like this is it. And though I said WTI will go up first a bit which it is right now, went from 52 to almost 54, should rise above 54 now. WTI will still be heading down to lower prices than earlier, thats fact, even based on the indicator charts.

this is amazing. you can summarize all the world's fundamental information and determine the purpose of the movement
  in the short term ... :) in which post did you write about the current promotion?

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Indeed, it is amazing, but what can I do?

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12 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Indeed, it is amazing, but what can I do?

probably the next stage is to anticipate the fundamental events ... why waste time on trifles and waste your talent on such trifles as the price of WTI oil :)

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So like i said earlier WTI will go above 54. its now 54.18 and now headed for 55, probably today.

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4 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

So like i said earlier WTI will go above 54. its now 54.18 and now headed for 55, probably today.

you spoke about 54 when he already jumped there ... :) about 55 you will not be accurate again .... and what fundamental events have defined the goal
   Owned by 55?

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actually no, incorrect again. When wti was still in 53 area i said it would go above 54, sorry. And 55 is next, so sorry proven wrong twice in a row. Keep trying.

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6 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

actually no, incorrect again. When wti was still in 53 area i said it would go above 54, sorry. And 55 is next, so sorry proven wrong twice in a row. Keep trying.

   Where did you first write about 54? This is where you write that 54 is now? :)

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Aplaque u said it wont go to 55. it is now 54 again, so watch and learn. 

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