Where is oil headed? 45 or 79?

(edited)

like i said 62 is the big ceiling that will hit. The only way it can go way above that is only if the escalation in Iran continues. Right now it down look good. Since both sides have big mouths, however, i dont foresee a war, neither does the US. And therefore this move up from 51 to 62.5 is really a fake move. But like i said that doesnt mean 62 wont be hit. And what that means or meant was, not to short due to the oversupply, but to wait for the big guns, to start shorting. Which will come in sometime after it hits 62, as long as the escalation is done with.

So behind the lines, there wont be a war, and therefore prices will go down, but not when the analysts says it will. It will go down after the analysts give up on the prices going back down. In other words I predict big positions will try and start shorting a bit after 62-63 is hit. And if they see their guess was right, they will then pile it on more shorts. If they see that they where wrong they will try again at higher prices.

Again the catalyst will be, to foresee if indeed the escalation is going to be over. Once Iran and US makes peace crude will drop $4 the same day.

Edited by Top Oil Trader

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11 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

like i said 62 is the big ceiling that will hit. The only way it can go way above that is only if the escalation in Iran continues. Right now it down look good. Since both sides have big mouths, however, i dont foresee a war, neither does the US. And therefore this move up from 51 to 62.5 is really a fake move. But like i said that doesnt mean 62 wont be hit. And what that means or meant was, not to short due to the oversupply, but to wait for the big guns, to start shorting. Which will come in sometime after it hits 62, as long as the escalation is done with.

So behind the lines, there wont be a war, and therefore prices will go down, but not when the analysts says it will. It will go down after the analysts give up on the prices going back down. In other words I predict big positions will try and start shorting a bit after 62-63 is hit. And if they see their guess was right, they will then pile it on more shorts. If they see that they where wrong they will try again at higher prices.

Again the catalyst will be, to foresee if indeed the escalation is going to be over. Once Iran and US makes peace crude will drop $4 the same day.

63 good goal for the end of the weekūüėä

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From a technical supply/demand-analysis of the weekly chart, I completely agree that we will see shorts somewhere around 62-63-ish.

Price is headed into strong weekly supply-level (pink area on attached image) and will probably go down to fresh demand-zone (blue area on attached image) from there.

But, of course - nobody knows, but this is my assumption.

Oil weekly supply.png

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well what is happening and this is hard to see from the charts. The big players are trying to push prices up, so they get better short positions. However, notice the prices even when there is Iran news dont move the price up much. This means the longs are not buying what the neocons are trying to sell. And most realize a war is too risky for both sides, which means that no matter what a war wont  break out. And therefore there will be no risk to to strait of hormuz. But to disprove that thought, there has to be another fake spike in crude taking it from  62-63, before any serious short attempt by the large players. Of course if a war does break out, (this could happen if Iran is blamed for a serious attack), then 62-63 will just be a small stepping stone. With no escalation this is wave 3-4 of a downward wave, meaning 46 is next. With escalation, 42 was the end of downward wave 5, and 42-66 was wave 2-3 and the move 66-50 was wve 3-4. and now 50-60.. will be wave 4-5. So its simply a question if war breaks out or not.

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(edited)

7 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

well what is happening and this is hard to see from the charts. The big players are trying to push prices up, so they get better short positions. However, notice the prices even when there is Iran news dont move the price up much. This means the longs are not buying what the neocons are trying to sell. And most realize a war is too risky for both sides, which means that no matter what a war wont  break out. And therefore there will be no risk to to strait of hormuz. But to disprove that thought, there has to be another fake spike in crude taking it from  62-63, before any serious short attempt by the large players. Of course if a war does break out, (this could happen if Iran is blamed for a serious attack), then 62-63 will just be a small stepping stone. With no escalation this is wave 3-4 of a downward wave, meaning 46 is next. With escalation, 42 was the end of downward wave 5, and 42-66 was wave 2-3 and the move 66-50 was wve 3-4. and now 50-60.. will be wave 4-5. So its simply a question if war breaks out or not.

wow ... where did the reasoning about the billions of shale mud disappear in Odessa ... on Deribasovskaya ...? :)))) I see you became a geopolitical notebook :) Duck, it doesn't matter what war will be .. Even if the fanatics just farts, the price will soar up ... Technical analysis just languishes without war .. Everyone indicators is waiting for war .. 

Edited by A/Plague

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On 7/11/2019 at 10:38 AM, A/Plague said:

 

Chinese GDP growth has put downward pressure on oil. 

 

I have a feeling we have hit the wall. However, Tropical Storm Barry and Inventory withdrawals can once again cause a rally. 

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2 hours ago, Osama said:

Chinese GDP growth has put downward pressure on oil. 

 

I have a feeling we have hit the wall. However, Tropical Storm Barry and Inventory withdrawals can once again cause a rally. 

takeaway to 63 will break instantly break bears and newly-minted geopolitics with purchased trading systems for $1000 :)

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2 hours ago, A/Plague said:

takeaway to 63 will break instantly break bears and newly-minted geopolitics with purchased trading systems for $1000 :)

Couldn't follow you here? 

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On 7/15/2019 at 1:44 PM, A/Plague said:

 

Oil prices took a nosedive... On hints that Iranian issue might get resolved. 

 

I was out before the main plunge but the loss occurred was bearable. 

 

Now what? Do we go further down? 

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