JJ

Where is oil headed? 45 or 79?

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(edited)

like i said 62 is the big ceiling that will hit. The only way it can go way above that is only if the escalation in Iran continues. Right now it down look good. Since both sides have big mouths, however, i dont foresee a war, neither does the US. And therefore this move up from 51 to 62.5 is really a fake move. But like i said that doesnt mean 62 wont be hit. And what that means or meant was, not to short due to the oversupply, but to wait for the big guns, to start shorting. Which will come in sometime after it hits 62, as long as the escalation is done with.

So behind the lines, there wont be a war, and therefore prices will go down, but not when the analysts says it will. It will go down after the analysts give up on the prices going back down. In other words I predict big positions will try and start shorting a bit after 62-63 is hit. And if they see their guess was right, they will then pile it on more shorts. If they see that they where wrong they will try again at higher prices.

Again the catalyst will be, to foresee if indeed the escalation is going to be over. Once Iran and US makes peace crude will drop $4 the same day.

Edited by Top Oil Trader

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11 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

like i said 62 is the big ceiling that will hit. The only way it can go way above that is only if the escalation in Iran continues. Right now it down look good. Since both sides have big mouths, however, i dont foresee a war, neither does the US. And therefore this move up from 51 to 62.5 is really a fake move. But like i said that doesnt mean 62 wont be hit. And what that means or meant was, not to short due to the oversupply, but to wait for the big guns, to start shorting. Which will come in sometime after it hits 62, as long as the escalation is done with.

So behind the lines, there wont be a war, and therefore prices will go down, but not when the analysts says it will. It will go down after the analysts give up on the prices going back down. In other words I predict big positions will try and start shorting a bit after 62-63 is hit. And if they see their guess was right, they will then pile it on more shorts. If they see that they where wrong they will try again at higher prices.

Again the catalyst will be, to foresee if indeed the escalation is going to be over. Once Iran and US makes peace crude will drop $4 the same day.

63 good goal for the end of the weekūüėä

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From a technical supply/demand-analysis of the weekly chart, I completely agree that we will see shorts somewhere around 62-63-ish.

Price is headed into strong weekly supply-level (pink area on attached image) and will probably go down to fresh demand-zone (blue area on attached image) from there.

But, of course - nobody knows, but this is my assumption.

Oil weekly supply.png

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well what is happening and this is hard to see from the charts. The big players are trying to push prices up, so they get better short positions. However, notice the prices even when there is Iran news dont move the price up much. This means the longs are not buying what the neocons are trying to sell. And most realize a war is too risky for both sides, which means that no matter what a war wont  break out. And therefore there will be no risk to to strait of hormuz. But to disprove that thought, there has to be another fake spike in crude taking it from  62-63, before any serious short attempt by the large players. Of course if a war does break out, (this could happen if Iran is blamed for a serious attack), then 62-63 will just be a small stepping stone. With no escalation this is wave 3-4 of a downward wave, meaning 46 is next. With escalation, 42 was the end of downward wave 5, and 42-66 was wave 2-3 and the move 66-50 was wve 3-4. and now 50-60.. will be wave 4-5. So its simply a question if war breaks out or not.

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(edited)

7 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

well what is happening and this is hard to see from the charts. The big players are trying to push prices up, so they get better short positions. However, notice the prices even when there is Iran news dont move the price up much. This means the longs are not buying what the neocons are trying to sell. And most realize a war is too risky for both sides, which means that no matter what a war wont  break out. And therefore there will be no risk to to strait of hormuz. But to disprove that thought, there has to be another fake spike in crude taking it from  62-63, before any serious short attempt by the large players. Of course if a war does break out, (this could happen if Iran is blamed for a serious attack), then 62-63 will just be a small stepping stone. With no escalation this is wave 3-4 of a downward wave, meaning 46 is next. With escalation, 42 was the end of downward wave 5, and 42-66 was wave 2-3 and the move 66-50 was wve 3-4. and now 50-60.. will be wave 4-5. So its simply a question if war breaks out or not.

wow ... where did the reasoning about the billions of shale mud disappear in Odessa ... on Deribasovskaya ...? :)))) I see you became a geopolitical notebook :) Duck, it doesn't matter what war will be .. Even if the fanatics just farts, the price will soar up ... Technical analysis just languishes without war .. Everyone indicators is waiting for war .. 

Edited by A/Plague

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On 7/11/2019 at 10:38 AM, A/Plague said:

 

Chinese GDP growth has put downward pressure on oil. 

 

I have a feeling we have hit the wall. However, Tropical Storm Barry and Inventory withdrawals can once again cause a rally. 

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2 hours ago, Osama said:

Chinese GDP growth has put downward pressure on oil. 

 

I have a feeling we have hit the wall. However, Tropical Storm Barry and Inventory withdrawals can once again cause a rally. 

takeaway to 63 will break instantly break bears and newly-minted geopolitics with purchased trading systems for $1000 :)

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2 hours ago, A/Plague said:

takeaway to 63 will break instantly break bears and newly-minted geopolitics with purchased trading systems for $1000 :)

Couldn't follow you here? 

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On 7/15/2019 at 1:44 PM, A/Plague said:

 

Oil prices took a nosedive... On hints that Iranian issue might get resolved. 

 

I was out before the main plunge but the loss occurred was bearable. 

 

Now what? Do we go further down? 

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We will go further down. As I wrote before there simply is more supply than demand. If you want to bet on a war, just buy some long positions at Usd 65 or above as these futures are now not so expensive. If war breaks out with Iran you will make a bundle on this long position.

But going short now is the best, as I wrote on my website for days, the Iranian issue will go over, too risky and too dangerous longer term.

Low 50-ies within 3-4 weeks. 

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15 hours ago, Osama said:

Oil prices took a nosedive... On hints that Iranian issue might get resolved. 

 

I was out before the main plunge but the loss occurred was bearable. 

 

Now what? Do we go further down?¬†ÔĽŅ

retest last low and a new test of a breakthrough high ...

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31 minutes ago, A/Plague said:

retest last low and a new test of a breakthrough high ...

What might be the reason for oil to go high

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So like i said as crude was going past 58, though it will go to 62, which it didnt, its not a good time to buy, since in fact the big money are looking to pile in big shorts. It looks they they have already piled in at the sixties their shots and probably keeping 62-63 as a stop level. Indeed the war talk was a temporary relief for the prices, but since so far it hast led to  anything, oil is now coming back to earth.

And this is basically how the rest of the year will play out, Iran talk oil will spike, oil glut oil will fall. And  like i mentioned earlier, when the investors will realize there can  be no war, then oil will immediately drop $4.

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2 hours ago, Osama said:

What might be the reason for oil to go high

technical analysis.

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Like i have said many times. Only reason for oil to go up is an escalation in Iran. As soon as that is over oil will drop, why? Major oil glut, and its only getting bigger. Supply up, demand stable prices go down. Fear of supply reduction due to war, prices temporarily go up. 62 should have been the place crude should have gotten to before a big drop based on charts, however, it almost made 61, before the big hedge funds stepped in. They stepped in due to fundamentals, and that fund mental hit at almost 61.

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6 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Like i have said many times. Only reason for oil to go up is an escalation in Iran. As soon as that is over oil will drop, why? Major oil glut, and its only getting bigger. Supply up, demand stable prices go down. Fear of supply reduction due to war, prices temporarily go up. 62 should have been the place crude should have gotten to before a big drop based on charts, however, it almost made 61, before the big hedge funds stepped in. They stepped in due to fundamentals, and that fund mental hit at almost 61.

And now we are headed to 55?or even lower? 

 

Much will depend also on an expected meeting with Iran.

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well assuming no escalations in iran were headed for 46. The iran card, is the only trick the saudis have left, to stop the decline.

Trump doesnt care if oil drops to 46, it will be good for his voters. But us companies do, and so do the neocons. So well have to see, what news develops next.

People to watch is Pompeo, Bolton, the Sauds and the Iranians.

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1 hour ago, Top Oil Trader said:

well assuming no escalations in iran were headed for 46. The iran card, is the only trick the saudis have left, to stop the decline.

Trump doesnt care if oil drops to 46, it will be good for his voters. But us companies do, and so do the neocons. So well have to see, what news develops next.

People to watch is Pompeo, Bolton, the Sauds and the Iranians.

But there has been some escalation recently. 

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Let's see if the 'Mustache' has Trumps ear.

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Once again prices are stuck...congestion.

 

Where do we see them going from here? 

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It all depends on Iran. taking positions now is more gambling. Better concentrate on news. When market start falling you might miss the first Dollar, but going short looks like best choice. As JJ pointed out, there can be no war. If you believe a war is in the cards, just buy some futures long at strike level Usd 70 (cheap today) and you will make a bundle. And sell short the coming days a oil price spike materializes.

Currently this market is not a normal market, all about sentiment. Look for facts, do your numbers. Hope on a trade deal we have seen numerous times before, based on....? Oil goes up because this should increase global oil demand? Yesterday global economy outlook was adjusted downwards again. Huawei came in during the trade war. Even if this is solved, it only means China is willing to talk again. Something else than agreeing to the terms of Trump. Just back to square one.

 

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Like i have said many times. There is a major glut in oil from more and more places in not just from the US. 

The only lifeline for oil now is escalation either from the Neo-cons or foolish actions from Iran. Now it looks like the Neo-cons will succeed in setting off some kind of escalation, which will temporarily spike the prices. They already did it earlier when crude hit 51. If Crude breaks 50 then 46 is next, which is basically a channel of 42-46 and if that breaks, 36 is next. Trump is not a neo-cons so he takes any attacks from Iran with a grain of salt. But if we would have had a democrat in office or a real neo-con, bush, clinton etc, oil would have been $100 by now.

Since Trump knows if he starts a war in Iran based on some fabrication, oil will rise, which before the elections will be bad for his election results and the economy.

Yes its possible in 2020 after he gets reelected that  he will start some war with Iran, since if prices go to 100, it wont hurt his election results. 

So until 2020 we will have small scare spikes in oil here and here, but this is just to prevent prices from going below 50 and then below 40.

So in short oil is trending down hard, and hedgefunds took big short positions when it spiked above 60, like i explained would happen when prices where still in the 50s. The only way to shake them out of their shorts, is by war of words from Iran, the Sauds and US..

I expect the real war to break out sometime after 2020.

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Unfortunately the range for crude will be between 50 and 60 with a downward bias. At this point trading crude is a waste of time, When crude makes a new break under 50 or goes above 60, it will be worth some attention. instead i have turned to stocks and after looking at a myriad of stocks,  currently in GLUU (games) @ from 7.25, dont take this as advice to buy.

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(edited)

On 7/28/2019 at 9:18 AM, Top Oil Trader said:

Unfortunately the range for crude will be between 50 and 60 with a downward bias. At this point trading crude is a waste of time, When crude makes a new break under 50 or goes above 60, it will be worth some attention. instead i have turned to stocks and after looking at a myriad of stocks,  currently in GLUU (games) @ from 7.25, dont take this as advice to buy.

oil can fire at any time ... and one goal 78....Now the great trader will write what he wrote about this 2 years ago and that I am rewriting his predictions ...ūüėČ

Edited by A/Plague

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The price has come to the local hi ... there will be no correction. we need a very serious positioning

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