JJ

Where is oil headed? 45 or 79?

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1 minute ago, Top Oil Trader said:

The trend up could resume if 54.5 is hit. 50.5 must hold for it not to hit 48. I do think at 50 there will be major writers trying to protect their options they wrote on PUTS. And we could see some crazy random action as it tries to break 50. 

Do you see it short term going lower than today's close? 

 

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8 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

if they take out 54 - 54.5, its back up to 58 - 60s.

☺️

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Currently went long at 52.6 looks like they are going for the 54.5.

What is amazing is that no matter what study you put on your chart its all worthless. Even if you use the best trading software, I think its now $900 a month, forget the name, but its what the big trading firms use.

No matter what analyst you listen to, all get it wrong over and over again.

Trend lines are subjective, what timeframe etc. Then you have the billionaires with their 1000s of traders, trying to take out the little guy. My estimate is, from seeing what goes on, there are at least 25,000 full time traders, with 100 of thousands of programs created by Math PHDs., that are constantly taking out the mom and pop trader. Thats all they do, they are not directional or macro traders.

So what to do? Is their a solution to this problem? As soon as there is and its published, that persons trades will be taken out too.

Many teach on the internet how to trade, try them, (may cost you 7k), but make sure you can get your money back, it might all be a mirage.

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5 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Currently went long at 52.6 looks like they are going for the 54.5.

What is amazing is that no matter what study you put on your chart its all worthless. Even if you use the best trading software, I think its now $900 a month, forget the name, but its what the big trading firms use.

No matter what analyst you listen to, all get it wrong over and over again.

Trend lines are subjective, what timeframe etc. Then you have the billionaires with their 1000s of traders, trying to take out the little guy. My estimate is, from seeing what goes on, there are at least 25,000 full time traders, with 100 of thousands of programs created by Math PHDs., that are constantly taking out the mom and pop trader. Thats all they do, they are not directional or macro traders.

So what to do? Is their a solution to this problem? As soon as there is and its published, that persons trades will be taken out too.

Many teach on the internet how to trade, try them, (may cost you 7k), but make sure you can get your money back, it might all be a mirage.

when we close the deal and post it here, then let's talk about what and who costs ....

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Here is the thing with trading.

If you try and trade in and out every day, you will never make it the bots will get you almost every time.

However, if you can pinpoint the pivot points, the moves that sometimes are the beginning of something big, then you can capture some serious returns.

Every instrument (at least the big ones), have their parameters which can be used over and over again,  of when they decide to move. But the instruments don't use the same parameters, so its not plug and play.

But if you can wait for those setups, its more than charts, indicators, and patterns, but if you can wait for those times not taking big positions you will have a big chance of beating the bots.

Bottom line play every day, you dont stand a chance, use common swing methods, you dont stand a chance.

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What does the oracle (chart) tell us. The move up last week was a sorry move, unless 54.5 is taken out, its nothing. Based purely on charts looks like more pain, unless (war escalates). Since these last events didn't spike oil far enough, expect more events, to try and spike oil. The event that triggers oil to go past 55 is, the same event that happend last week but not to a Japanese tanker, but an american asset.

Technically oil looks to drop below DEC 2018 prices, unless we see more events, particularly if they can lay the blame on Iran, that endangers the transport of oil from the gulf states,

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On 6/2/2019 at 7:41 AM, Top Oil Trader said:

Lesson 3. When the worst gloom sets in from media and analyst predicting further lows, go long.

Seems there is a lot of gloom right now, but I am not seeing chart signs to buy - yet! But then "not buying" is not the same thing as "going short"! 😉

Its been a while, glad to see you still here.......

 

 

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(edited)

3 hours ago, Streamer said:

Seems there is a lot of gloom right now, but I am not seeing chart signs to buy - yet! But then "not buying" is not the same thing as "going short"! 😉

Seems I sparked a little rally with my comment! Sorry! 🤩

Edited by Streamer

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well though there still is a big oil glut, it looks like with the iran situation and the trade war news, we could hit 56 and then top out at 62. 
Before people wake up again. After 62  we could see  a drop to 46.

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7 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

well though there still is a big oil glut, it looks like with the iran situation and the trade war news, we could hit 56 and then top out at 62. 
Before people wake up again. After 62  we could see  a drop to 46.

I just st suffered a huge loss. Was short in oil... Never knew Trump was going to announce something so positive. 

 

Do you think I should take a chance and buy at 54 and wait till 58?

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(edited)

8 hours ago, Osama said:

I just st suffered a huge loss. Was short in oil... Never knew Trump was going to announce something so positive. 

 

Do you think I should take a chance and buy at 54 and wait till 58?

Hi Osama, sorry to hear of your losses resulting from this sudden announcement - I am sure you were not alone!

I know that your question was directed to JJ but maybe I can add some thoughts here?

Prior to this tweet by Mr Trump, the oil price was being defined by OPEC and the US/Iran conflict on one side and the weak economic growth outlook on the other. The attack on those tankers that was shrugged off by the oil markets demonstrated that the overriding issue is/was indeed the weak global economic outlook as a result of the trade war between the US and China.

 Therefore, whether we go higher from here or not would seem to depend on how much credibility the oil markets place on these announced talks at the G20 meeting between Mr Trump and China's president, Xi Jinping, and whether they are likely to result in something meaningful.

Since President Trump has just officially started his re-election campaign, we can assume that he is aiming for something concrete to evolve from this meeting that is in the US interests. If that fails, then he will surely be pushed into actioning his further tariffs on a huge scale - which could easily push us into a global recession during his election campaign. I don't think that is his wish any more than he desires a war with Iran.

So my personal view is that we will see some concrete positive comments/results from this meeting that will also be positive for the oil markets. The fact that the US/Iran situation is only likely to worsen and the OPEC+meetings are geared towards supporting prices, are both issues that are working in the same direction as the G20 meet enthusiasm.

But the road higher may be bumpy and, at least on my charts, we are still in a range from the prior weeks. I would therefore say that the bias is higher, while being vulnerable to collapse on any doubts regarding the seriousness of this Trump/Jinping meet.

Edited by Streamer
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Hi All, I'm new here, really enjoying the 'debate'. 

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(edited)

I believe some nice comments out of Xi and Trump meeting.  All talk no substance. But will placate the nervous Nellie's.

I think trade negotiations go on until next Presidential election. Xi running out clock.  Trump won't cave. It's now or never for a FAIR Free Trade Agreement.

Strong resistance $55. WTI.

July 1 OPEC meeting.  It's a given OPEC+ extends cuts.  Big deal (not)

EIA, IEA, OPEC and most knowledgeable oil investors know US Shale alone will increase production by 2 to 2.5 million barrels over next 12 months period with new pipelines from Permian.  

Most traders looking at short term trades.  The question is when does market start to factor this in. 

Between now and end of June trades between $50 to $55. If can close above $55 could go to $60+.

Unless a major incident.

Notice how the price usually moves up on the coming month contract as we approach closing date.

Edited by Falcon
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14 hours ago, Streamer said:

Hi Osama, sorry to hear of your losses resulting from this sudden announcement - I am sure you were not alone!

I know that your question was directed to JJ but maybe I can add some thoughts here?

Prior to this tweet by Mr Trump, the oil price was being defined by OPEC and the US/Iran conflict on one side and the weak economic growth outlook on the other. The attack on those tankers that was shrugged off by the oil markets demonstrated that the overriding issue is/was indeed the weak global economic outlook as a result of the trade war between the US and China.

 Therefore, whether we go higher from here or not would seem to depend on how much credibility the oil markets place on these announced talks at the G20 meeting between Mr Trump and China's president, Xi Jinping, and whether they are likely to result in something meaningful.

Since President Trump has just officially started his re-election campaign, we can assume that he is aiming for something concrete to evolve from this meeting that is in the US interests. If that fails, then he will surely be pushed into actioning his further tariffs on a huge scale - which could easily push us into a global recession during his election campaign. I don't think that is his wish any more than he desires a war with Iran.

So my personal view is that we will see some concrete positive comments/results from this meeting that will also be positive for the oil markets. The fact that the US/Iran situation is only likely to worsen and the OPEC+meetings are geared towards supporting prices, are both issues that are working in the same direction as the G20 meet enthusiasm.

But the road higher may be bumpy and, at least on my charts, we are still in a range from the prior weeks. I would therefore say that the bias is higher, while being vulnerable to collapse on any doubts regarding the seriousness of this Trump/Jinping meet.

A good analysis indeed! I agree that trade war is the pivot against which the markets will move at least in the shorter term. 

 

But I expect nothing more than just a general announcement from G20.. Something like "both parties agree for more talks" etc. 

But even the anticipation of it... Yes... Jt might move prices north. 

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5 hours ago, Falcon said:

I believe some nice comments out of Xi and Trump meeting.  All talk no substance. But will placate the nervous Nellie's.

I think trade negotiations go on until me t Presidential election. Xi running out clock.  Trump won't cave. It's now or never for a FAIR Free Trade Agreement.

Strong resistance $55. WTI.

July 1 OPEC meeting.  It's a given OPEC+ extends cuts.  Big deal (not)

EIA, IEA, OPEC and most knowledgeable oil investors know US Shale alone will increase production by 2 to 2.5 million barrels over next 12 months period with new pipelines from Permian.  

Most traders looking at short term trades.  The question is when does market start to factor this in. 

Between now and end of June trades between $50 to $55. If can close above $55 could go to $60+.

Unless a major incident.

Notice how the price usually moves up on the coming month contract as we approach closing date.

Interesting! 

So you suggest an upward movement now? Only for  it to drop down later on? 

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(edited)

7 hours ago, Osama said:

Interesting! 

So you suggest an upward movement now? Only for  it to drop down later on? 

Yes, as famous oil trader Andy Hall recently said " oil doesn't trade on fundamentals anymore"

It trades on fear of Mideast conflicts, statements by al-Falih, and weekly inventory reports or rig counts. Most of which is useless.  

It does so because little transparency. 

This will all change when US exports ramp up starting Q4. Going to 8 mm bbls/day 2024.

Edited by Falcon
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28 minutes ago, Falcon said:

Yes, as famous oil trader Andy Hall recently said " oil doesn't trade on fundamentals anymore"

It trades on fear of Mideast conflicts, statements by al-Falih, and weekly inventory reports or rig counts. Most of which is useless.  

It does so because little transparency

This will all change when US exports ramp up starting Q4. Going to 8 mm bbls/day 2024.

Well yes I agree.

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Well Iran says it shot down a U.S. drone. Oil prices near $56 (WTI).

 

The way it looks that now Trump will say something aggressive and it might really touch $60 -  @Top Oil Trader you said that right?

But what if there is no deal at G20? The world is still awash with more than 90 million barrel of oil with 40 million increase only in the month of May due to slower demand and global economic growth.

Do you people see a ride till $60 from here?

@A/Plague, @Falcon, @Streamer

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39 minutes ago, Osama said:

The way it looks that now Trump will say something aggressive and it might really touch $60 -

I really don't believe that Mr Trump is interested in a war. He is a businessman and wants to be remembered eventually for all his great deals - not for being responsible for leading the US into another war. But his colleagues certainly DO seem to want a war  - and it seems that the actual government, congress, in the US doesn't have much of a say in anything nowadays!

But the entire middle east situation is complicated and is not just a US v. Iran face-off. If the situation does flare up into a war then I do not doubt that Mr Trump will be ready to throw everything at the opponent, aiming for a quick and decisive end to it. He has started his election campaign and a prolonged war would seriously get in the way right now - especially as it was Mr Trump himself who withdrew from the Iranian agreement in the first place that has led us to this point - that would be good fuel for the Democrats, I think?.

But, also, if we reach that stage, then looking at numbers we might reach such as $60 will be a waste of time . it will no longer be a "normal" supply/demand - technical analysis predictive model scenario. The Hormuz strait is hugely important, passing 30% of global seaborne oil. Any serious threats to merchant shipping on that route will be explosive in several ways!

40 minutes ago, Osama said:

But what if there is no deal at G20? The world is still awash with more than 90 million barrel of oil

I think it is worth remembering that old cliché "Buy the rumour, sell the fact". Markets trade the difference between where price is and where they think it ought to be. This G20 meeting between the two leaders is not just about their meeting. As I understand it, teams from both sides will already be meeting even before the Trump/Jinping meet. This does give it a flavour of seriousness and commitment - and why wouldn't they both be looking for a resolution of the situation? But, naturally, it is not going to all happen overnight!

So the markets will continue to trade up on the optimism until and unless there are signs that it is failing to make progress - and if that happens, then, as you suggest, there will be a freefall back to recent lows - unless, in the meantime, we have a war! :) 

Well, that's my take on it, for what its worth. I've been long oil for 2 days, but just closed out to see what the US reaction is to the downed drone this morning..........

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If the U.S. strikes the Iranian oil refineries and fields it'll pass 60+. That's a big "if" though, as is conclusive their SAM took out the drone over international water. I am will to pay more at the pump and inflict some serious wounds. Time to quit messing around with this situation and get it under control before you embolden them even more. Or you could take the steps of announcing to get the women and children out of Tehran and send 10 MOABs to the city. 

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