OPEC Reaches Agreement

OPEC has reportedly reached an agreement to extend production cut to end-2018. Not sure yet whether libya/nigeria will be included. NOPEC/OPEC meeting is still in progress.

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They're talking about 1.8 million bpd for Nigeria and 1 million bpd for Libya, but they're only calling these 'soft targets'. More like guidance because it doesn't look like these numbers will be in the final agreement. Technically, both countries will still get to keep their exemption. 

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Those two countries can't afford major cut. They would probably face financial collapse

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Even if they are included in the deal, it doesn’t mean much. Iraq never fully complied with its share of the cuts and has been the biggest cheater on this deal. I wonder who is going to control the production in Libya and Nigeria. Does anyone really knows who owns oilfields in Libya. It seems to me that it is changing daily

 

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Libya is still wondering itself who controls its oilfields--and that can change on a weekly basis. Control of the country's oil is still a very uncertain thing. They did manage to get production up to over 1 million bpd this summer for the first time since 2013. Now they're gunning for 1.25 million bpd for year-end. If there is a 'soft-target' cap of 1 million bpd for Libyan production, it's not going to hurt them regardless because hitting 1.25 million bpd will be challenging anyway. 

 

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Apparently Libya and Nigeria have agreed to not exceed 2017 levels in 2018, according to OPEC communication seen by Reuters.

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The OPEC meeting is over and the deal is done. Journalists at the meet are all over Twitter. No surprises, but note the review in June so they can get out of the extension early. Markets might not like this. 

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Guest Black Hole

Oil is certainly reacting negatively... but with all the hype beforehand it would have taken a lot to move oil prices upwards.

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1 hour ago, J Owens said:

Oil is certainly reacting negatively... but with all the hype beforehand it would have taken a lot to move oil prices upwards.

I think they really tried this time to manage expectations, but it wasn't as successful as I think they had hoped. It's like preparing your kid for Christmas. It's got to be bigger and better than last year. Otherwise, it will forever be remembered as "The Christmas That Wasn't As Good As Last Year." The takeaway for OPEC should be to start small so you can always go bigger to meet expanding expectations. 

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