Oil Demand Needs to Halve: Equinor

Oil demand needs to halve, gas use must drop by 10% and coal use needs to be all but eradicated by 2050 to achieve the goals of the Paris agreement to limit global warming, oil company Equinor said in its energy outlook on Thursday. Here.

I can definitely see this happening without a major reduction in global population and even major-er consumption limits on everything, yep.

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58 minutes ago, Marina Schwarz said:

Oil demand needs to halve, gas use must drop by 10% and coal use needs to be all but eradicated by 2050 to achieve the goals of the Paris agreement to limit global warming, oil company Equinor said in its energy outlook on Thursday. Here.

I can definitely see this happening without a major reduction in global population and even major-er consumption limits on everything, yep.

To do that Equinor (STATOIL) must shut in all their oil and gas right now!!!! Norway should take all their oil trust fund $$$ and put it into solar and wind ;)

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This may be a good start but it won't affect demand. They have to find a way to reduce demand. I'll watch them trying with fascination and unhealthy curiosity.

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Equinot

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(edited)

3 hours ago, Marina Schwarz said:

This may be a good start but it won't affect demand. They have to find a way to reduce demand. I'll watch them trying with fascination and unhealthy curiosity.

Who is "they"? 

To me all the article did was list 2 different scenarios. Probably to justify investment decision(s) they are planning or to tell government(s) that certain frame conditions must be in place if they are to lift their burden of this investment. 

Edited by Rasmus Jorgensen

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13 hours ago, Marina Schwarz said:

Oil demand needs to halve, gas use must drop by 10% and coal use needs to be all but eradicated by 2050 to achieve the goals of the Paris agreement to limit global warming, oil company Equinor said in its energy outlook on Thursday. Here.

I can definitely see this happening without a major reduction in global population and even major-er consumption limits on everything, yep.

This will not happen by 2050, it will happen by 2030 and through market forces alone. Most people will not see the difference as renewable energy takes over except their cars will perform better.

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11 hours ago, Marina Schwarz said:

This may be a good start but it won't affect demand. They have to find a way to reduce demand. I'll watch them trying with fascination and unhealthy curiosity.

RE will be cheap enough by 2025 that fossil plants will just be shut down. BEVs will be on price parity by 2022 and cheaper than the ICE equivalent after. No worries, it will happen on its own.

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22 minutes ago, Bill the Science Nerd said:

RE will be cheap enough by 2025 that fossil plants will just be shut down. BEVs will be on price parity by 2022 and cheaper than the ICE equivalent after. No worries, it will happen on its own.

It's about more than just cheap. It also needs to be practical. It's not that yet. 

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(edited)

Doesn’t seem to jive with the wishes of Equinor to restart drilling in the heavily protected Barents Sea. I have drilled wells there and it’s not easy due to the very harsh environment and environmental restrictions due to greenies chaining themselves to the anchor chains etc🤔🤔

https://www.worldoil.com/news/2019/3/28/equinor-receives-consent-for-exploration-drilling-in-barents-north-sea

Edited by James Regan
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1 hour ago, Bill the Science Nerd said:

This will not happen by 2050, it will happen by 2030 and through market forces alone. Most people will not see the difference as renewable energy takes over except their cars will perform better.

I am afraid you are overly optimistic. Renewables plus natural gas can eliminate coal under ideal circumstances. Gasoline and diesel will remain as fuel beyond 2050 but I hope natural gas becomes the transportation fuel of choice. Only it can do the job for a lower price, clear the air around the world, and offer hundreds of years of supply beyond oil. China and India will continue coal use as long as it is seen as the least expensive fuel. Coal use has been UP the last couple of years. 

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1 minute ago, ronwagn said:

I am afraid you are overly optimistic. Renewables plus natural gas can eliminate coal under ideal circumstances. Gasoline and diesel will remain as fuel beyond 2050 but I hope natural gas becomes the transportation fuel of choice. Only it can do the job for a lower price, clear the air around the world, and offer hundreds of years of supply beyond oil. China and India will continue coal use as long as it is seen as the least expensive fuel. Coal use has been UP the last couple of years. 

China and India are going to keep on increasing the use of thermal coal for power generation and are building more/have built more coal fired power plants. tech also exists to upgrade the coal to a much less polluting and more BTU energy source in addition to coal to liquids fuel and coal to liquids petchem conversions that will be or are already competitively priced.

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6 minutes ago, ceo_energemsier said:

China and India are going to keep on increasing the use of thermal coal for power generation and are building more/have built more coal fired power plants. tech also exists to upgrade the coal to a much less polluting and more BTU energy source in addition to coal to liquids fuel and coal to liquids petchem conversions that will be or are already competitively priced.

I would appreciate any references.

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(edited)

https://www.powermag.com/advanced-coal-technologies-improve-emissions-and-efficiency-2/

Combined heat and power is something I have never seen discussed on this forum. It is an excellent way to avoid wasting heat energy potential.

 https://www.powermag.com/press-releases/innios-waukesha-gas-engines-provide-high-overall-efficiency-and-low-emissions-to-district-heating-plant-in-germany/

 

Edited by ronwagn
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24 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

Pretty hard to defeat the Carnot Cycle. Many have tried, many a project has died ;)

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6 hours ago, Bill the Science Nerd said:

RE will be cheap enough by 2025 that fossil plants will just be shut down.

Which "RE" and where? The world, as I've pointed out before, is quite big and topographically diverse. Which means:

1. You can't have wind mills everywhere.

2. You can't have solar panels everywhere.

3. You simply do not have big rivers everywhere.

Plus, even if your fantasy plays out (because all governments suddenly go crazy and ban them) and all fossil fuel plants are shut down by 2025, EVs have a long way to go before they compare with ICEs* on everything that matters. And then there is the tiny little issue of maritime transport, which accounts for 90% of international trade. Ninety percent, as per the IMO. Those cargo ships use diesel. Can we please be realistic about it?

*This includes by far not just passenger cars but also trucks and various industrial transportation machines from tractors to mining whatevers.

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(edited)

39 minutes ago, Marina Schwarz said:

Which "RE" and where? The world, as I've pointed out before, is quite big and topographically diverse. Which means:

1. You can't have wind mills everywhere.

2. You can't have solar panels everywhere.

3. You simply do not have big rivers everywhere.

 And then there is the tiny little issue of maritime transport, which accounts for 90% of international trade. Ninety percent, as per the IMO. Those cargo ships use diesel. Can we please be realistic about it?

*This includes by far not just passenger cars but also trucks and various industrial transportation machines from tractors to mining whatevers.

Let's not forget fertilizers and insecticides, which are invariably made from fossil fuels. 

Meanwhile, I did my part for maritime here by trying to bring back the Yankee clipper. Let's face it, wind powered ships are far more likely than wind powered airplanes. ;)

Edited by Ward Smith
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21 hours ago, Marina Schwarz said:

Oil demand needs to halve, gas use must drop by 10% and coal use needs to be all but eradicated by 2050 to achieve the goals of the Paris agreement to limit global warming, oil company Equinor said in its energy outlook on Thursday. Here.

I can definitely see this happening without a major reduction in global population and even major-er consumption limits on everything, yep.

Thank goodness the US is not party to that Paris nonsense!

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7 hours ago, Bill the Science Nerd said:

This will not happen by 2050, it will happen by 2030 and through market forces alone. Most people will not see the difference as renewable energy takes over except their cars will perform better.

What have you been smoking?

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6 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Thank goodness the US is not party to that Paris nonsense!

Even those who are can't do it as fast as they need to. 

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7 hours ago, James Regan said:

Doesn’t seem to jive with the wishes of Equinor to restart drilling in the heavily protected Barents Sea. I have drilled wells there and it’s not easy due to the very harsh environment and environmental restrictions due to greenies chaining themselves to the anchor chains etc🤔🤔

https://www.worldoil.com/news/2019/3/28/equinor-receives-consent-for-exploration-drilling-in-barents-north-sea

Very silly to 'chain' yourself to an anchor chain. It's way to easy to release the chain brake....Hello seabed!😆

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22 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

Let's not forget fertilizers and insecticides, which are invariably made from fossil fuels. 

And plastics and synthetic fibres, and a thousand other things, yes. 

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15 hours ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

Who is "they"? 

Equinor and co.

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