As Iran Nuclear Deal Flounders, France Turns To Saudi For Oil

Over the past year, France has led a European push to keep trade with Iran alive after the United States tore up the nuclear deal with Tehran and re-imposed sanctions. But over the same period, data shows France has cut purchases of Iranian oil and sharply increased imports from Iran’s arch-enemy Saudi Arabia.In recent weeks, France has used its energy needs to justify a surge in arms sales to the kingdom, even if there is no evidence the 50 percent increase in Saudi purchases of French arms last year was conditional on France buying Saudi oil. The surge in France’s buying of Saudi oil shows Paris is doing less business with Iran even as it publicly encourages European partners to find a way to keep trade with Tehran flowing via the Franco-German-British Instex trade system.

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Over the last 5 years, France’s friendship with Riyadh and Abu Dhabi has become tighter....so, make sense..

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Poor Iranians people are collateral damage of all this ...  I'm afraid that nothing will change in their lives, and Mullahs will continue to ride..

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Madness: Iran's Khamenei says while Tehran doesn't want an atomic bomb, 'America could not do anything' to stop Iran if it did.

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22 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

If these are false flag attacks, they're getting more serious by the day

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Middle-East-Torpedo-Attacks-Send-Oil-Prices-Soaring.html

 

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Supposing these are false flag attacks, what do you suppose is their end goal?  Where do we go from here?

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13 minutes ago, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said:

Supposing these are false flag attacks, what do you suppose is their end goal?  Where do we go from here?

Until it is proven, beyond doubt, who is behind the mining of these vessels, there is really nothing to do and nowhere to go.

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5 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Until it is proven, beyond doubt, who is behind the mining of these vessels, there is really nothing to do and nowhere to go.

I agree, but it's still an interesting thought exercise.  Suppose someone is behind the attacks; then try to figure out their objectives.  What if Iran is behind them?  The US?  Russia?  What would be the consequences of each of those suppositions? 

Once we've built a story, we can compare it to alternative stories.  Sometimes we start with an ostensibly implausible scenario that, once vetted, becomes the most likely explanation.  It's hard to know that without asking "What if?"

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I agree, a good mental exercise which I hope various governments are addressing.

I do not believe that the US desires, or has the appetite to get involved in another war, so any false flag operation to drag them into one is, in my opinion, doomed from the start.

I can see outside interests getting involved in keeping the Straits open and swept of mines, but as usual, the international community will expect the US to take on this chore, which will put US military assets in harms way, and THAT could escalate.

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On 6/13/2019 at 9:13 AM, Pavel said:

Madness: Iran's Khamenei says while Tehran doesn't want an atomic bomb, 'America could not do anything' to stop Iran if it did.

He doesn't understand that we could very easily send him the technology he wants on a 30 minute express delivery. I bet he wouldn't want it then. If they get nukes the entire world will be in extreme danger....

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8 hours ago, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said:

Supposing these are false flag attacks, what do you suppose is their end goal?  Where do we go from here?

It's almost like they are asking for a war with the USA, maybe the country is in such a terrible state the leaders figure a war that they would lose would be beneficial to their people. They know very well afterwards we would be over there setting up a new gov't and helping them rebuild.....Oh, what am I thinking, these people are bat shit crazy. They don't care about any of that, they are freaking insane for Allah....

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13 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

I agree, a good mental exercise which I hope various governments are addressing.

I do not believe that the US desires, or has the appetite to get involved in another war, so any false flag operation to drag them into one is, in my opinion, doomed from the start.

I can see outside interests getting involved in keeping the Straits open and swept of mines, but as usual, the international community will expect the US to take on this chore, which will put US military assets in harms way, and THAT could escalate.

I suspect the US has reached a point where, instead of clearing the lanes and restoring oil trade, it would tip the entire region into a bloodbath and steal their market share.  That would explain why these previously bellicose nations are falling all over themselves declaring peaceful intentions.  They're unnecessary, and they know it. 

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There is no rational reason for the US to get involved in the Persion Gulf at this point, neither is there an appetite for it among the people of the US or Congress.

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On 6/13/2019 at 10:05 AM, francoba said:

Poor Iranians people are collateral damage of all this

Yup, this is the truth.  Remember that over half of Iran's people are age 25 or under.  They have no interest in conflict and loathe the Ayatollahs and their crazy ideas.  If they could do "regime change" they would - but they have no guns personally. If they had guns, I would bet against any offered odds that the people would overthrow that government.   No guns, no fight.  P.S.  That harsh reality continues to escape the minds of the gun-abolition crowd.  Something to ponder. 

At one time someone proposed to offer 50,000 visas to Iranian students to come to the US if they overthrew that regime.  Unfortunately that interesting proposition went nowhere.  Got buried by the Deep State. 

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1 hour ago, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said:

I suspect the US has reached a point where, instead of clearing the lanes and restoring oil trade, it would tip the entire region into a bloodbath and steal their market share.

That is a very interesting observation!  And yes, you can bet that the locals over there on that Gulf are pondering that very thought. You cannot eat sand.  Gotta keep selling.

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7 hours ago, SERWIN said:

Oh, what am I thinking, these people are bat shit crazy. They don't care about any of that, they are freaking insane for Allah....

Yup, you nailed it.  Lots of total crazies in that part of the world.  Oh, well. 

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While all this talk of war is going on, we need to keep in mind that the vast majority of Iranians are simply good folks who are caught in a bind created by the Ayatollah and his minions.

As always it is just the regular citizens who pay the price. 

I am 100% certain that if it was possible, without a bloodbath of innocents, the Iranian people would rise up and change the regime....but at the moment that is a pipe dream.

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7 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

While all this talk of war is going on, we need to keep in mind that the vast majority of Iranians are simply good folks who are caught in a bind created by the Ayatollah and his minions.

As always it is just the regular citizens who pay the price. 

I am 100% certain that if it was possible, without a bloodbath of innocents, the Iranian people would rise up and change the regime....but at the moment that is a pipe dream.

I have to take issue with declaring these people "innocent".  With basic human rights come basic civic responsibilities. 

The Western world has shifted to a democratic mindset wherein everyone is afforded basic rights and a voice in their government.  When we say that these people are being oppressed, we're speaking from the perspective that these people deserve rights and freedom.  However, with those rights and freedom come the responsibility to keep their government in check.  The Western world wasn't given rights and freedoms for free; we earned with with blood and sacrifice.  We bore the responsibility of controlling our own government and protecting our own people. 

When I served in Iraq, I noticed a certain incompetence and lack of will on the part of the locals.  They're certainly decent people - but they don't fight like Americans do.  They were too selfish and cowardly for that.  The Middle East lacks freedom because its people haven't earned it.  Until they accept responsibility, they deserve what they get. 

This is esp. relevant as the United States welcomes immigrants who don't understand their civic responsibilities and aren't capable of fighting.  They think America's wealth just happened.  It didn't; patriots had to fight and die for it.  The rise of incompetent, fearful citizens has enabled the rise of our powerful, centralized, corrupt government.  If the trend towards incompetent, fearful citizens continues, the US will be no different than any other dictatorship.  We may be there already. 

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35 minutes ago, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said:

We may be there already. 

Based on what Trump has exposed by kicking over he deep state rocks I think we are there already.

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9 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

 If they could do "regime change" they would - but they have no guns personally. If they had guns, I would bet against any offered odds that the people would overthrow that government.

Funny thing, in the end the Shah fell because his forces weren't willing to just slaughter people in the street. And the reason the Shah was in power was we engineered it because the Brits were so upset over the notion of a nationalized oil company, but by then the Empire was incapable of forcing it's way. How brutal would the current police go, don't know. But by and large I agree the current regime would lose power if the masses had any real say in it.

For the 50,000 VISAs, King Abdullah did something similar with Saudi Arabia, with 100,000 students in the west as a way to pollinate change. MBS was not one of them. But you do have quite a range of ideas and education in the Kingdom. However it's a zero public descent environment so very difficult for outsiders, and even insiders, to know. What a strange thing to do, expose folks, and then not let them talk about it. 

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32 minutes ago, wrs said:

Based on what Trump has exposed by kicking over he deep state rocks I think we are there already.

Do you think he's helping bring us back?

If so, do you think there's any hope he'll succeed? 

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14 minutes ago, John Foote said:

For the 50,000 VISAs, King Abdullah did something similar with Saudi Arabia, with 100,000 students in the west as a way to pollinate change. MBS was not one of them. But you do have quite a range of ideas and education in the Kingdom. However it's a zero public descent environment so very difficult for outsiders, and even insiders, to know. What a strange thing to do, expose folks, and then not let them talk about it.  

If these regimes operate anything like the US military, they're in favor of innovation and change - but only when it's to their benefit.  It's necessary to educate people so they can earn you greater success and wealth. 

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(edited)

4 minutes ago, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said:

Do you think he's helping bring us back?

If so, do you think there's any hope he'll succeed? 

I can't tell yet.  The shouting from the media against anything he says or does is so loud it's hard to tell if progress is being made.  I think if Durham indicts some people for real crimes we are making progress but it looks like Wray at the FBI is covering up still.  As long as there are people in the top echelons that are part of the deep state, it will be very difficult for one administration to fight them.  They have permanent tenure and not much fear of any administration due to the fact they can spy on anyone, anywhere, anytime all paid for by our tax dollars.  That is a very powerful weapon to have.  

If he is reelected in 2020 and has at least one legislative body under republican control then there is still hope but we won't know the answer to that until 18 months from now.  The Mueller investigation was crafted to keep him from getting much done while he had both houses and it succeeded.

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