"We're Not Going to Negotiate Anymore"

[ronwagn + 6,290]

1 hour ago, Zhong Lu said:

"They will cut a deal," some claim.

My question is this: how do you know that? Has Iran cut a deal? Has North Korea cut a deal? Has the Taliban cut a deal?

What if the other side simply doesn't "cut a deal?" What then? 

They are all in economic collapse. North Korea is a puppet of China. Iran is ruled by Islamic despotism. Afghanistan will be also if those in Kabul do not fight to defend their freedom. Trump will not do their fighting for them much longer. We will aid them to some extent. Turkey is like Iran with Erdogan. 

[Zhong Lu + 845]

You should visit China at some point.  They're not in economic collapse.  

At least look at the stock prices of the Chinese companies listed on the stock exchanges.  They're treading water, which is a pretty good summary of the Chinese [and American] economy right now.  

Edited August 8, 2019 by Zhong Lu

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

3 minutes ago, Zhong Lu said:

The next president can easily claim they're doing it for the good of American farmers.  It's not political suicide so long as you can spin it right.  Trump's support is not the majority.  It never was.  

Everything I've heard is that the Chinese government is going to wait. No point negotiating with Trump since he's unpredictable and unreliable.  

Okay, let us wait and see.

You seem to think that the pain tolerance of the rank and file Chinese is greater than that of Americans. Probably true 50 years ago, not sure about now UNLESS it is mandated by Xi (essentially a dictator for life).

Doing it for the good of the American farmer? What about the rest of the Americans? They vote as well!

Trump is NOT unpredictable or reliable. You can reliably predict that he will do what he thinks is best for America and he will NOT back down.

Finally, your comment regarding the majority he never had...you have fallen into the trap of not understanding the Electoral College.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

40 minutes ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

These are great arguments, all the way around. So great that I'm reluctant to even post. However, in order to understand the Chinese mindset, you absolutely must read, "The Hundred-Year Marathon." I read it and forgot it. Then I read, just today, that President Xi has said before a group, and I paraphrase, "This is the last example of the Long March." And I don't know who capitalized long march. 

But it was chilling. The Long March--capitalized--was actually that 6,000 trip taken by a bunch of ragtag revolutionary soldiers who started in southeastern China and ended up 2 years later in northwestern China, fighting all the way, over 18 mountain ranges. They were fighting Chiang Kai-shek's soldiers. It took them two years: 1934-'35. When they finally arrived, more or less victorious, they put into power Mao Xedong. He is the one who came up with the concept of the hundred-year marathon. In one-hundred years, he said, we can be the preeminent power in the world. 

Well, I don't think that will happen, but I couldn't help but feel that President Xi felt it could happen. He visited an Iowa farm in 2005, again in 2012. He sat on a big John Deere tractor. He knows from soybeans. And he is well aware that the American farmer is the Achilles Heel of the American economy. It's true, China needs vast amounts of protein, more now that the Asian Swine flu has decimated their herds. But the world is involuting quickly. There are other places with land much expensive on which to grow hogs. American farmers are beginning to go bankrupt, helped along by the wet winter. President Trump will soon lose Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio even. President Xi thinks that with mass shootings, market turmoil, farmers going broke, he can hang on until another American leader--one with a weaker hand--will gain power. I'm not sure he's right. 

Why not? Because as someone pointed out, the yuan would, if allowed to float, fall 50% in one day. It's being propped up. But it has been for years. Yes, the Chinese hold huge American debt in the form of treasury bills--3.2 trillion dollars worth. They have done very well on those, especially lately. They continue to buy, and I think they will in the future. Why? Because they need to prop up the yuan. They're in trouble with Hong Kong. Why? Because Hong Kong has been, for the last 34 years, pegged to the US dollar. China needs Hong Kong more than Hong Kong needs China. This has been a delicate balancing act for many years. It hasn't gotten any easier. 

So, who will win this hundred-year marathon? Well, I'm an American, not Chinese, so I naturally think America will. But I'm afraid that I also feel that none of this really had to happen. The company that has had more intellectual property stolen from it than any other is Apple, the most successful company in the world. If that's what happens when intel prop is stolen, please, steal some of mine! My Nobel Prize winning friend, now 83, tells me that never in the history of the world has anyone won a trade battle. I believe him. At some point, President Trump has to have a meeting, face to face, with President Xi. They have to eat a bowl of chocolate ice cream, laugh a little bit, recollect some of the funny things that have happened along the way, and then they have to agree on a common theme and make up. This will allow President Trump to win the election in 2020. It will give President Xi face too. The American farmers can once again grow their soybeans, and China can have all the pork it wants. The Dow will go up over a thousand points the next day. Oil will jump $5/barrel, because part of the deal is that China will turn its back on MbS and agree to take our very large crude carriers and LNG ships in its ports, to turn Iranian oil away. 

 

Your ending does not agree with your beginning. The Long March is an ordeal for China and whoever demands Fair Trade. Those who fall for the temptation of allowing China to continue as is will eventually suffer more than they gain. Such an attitude would make Mao right. We cannot allow that to happen. Americans have become too soft. Too many just want money the easiest way they can get it, regardless of any principles involved. 

[Zhong Lu + 845]

2 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Okay, let us wait and see.

You seem to think that the pain tolerance of the rank and file Chinese is greater than that of Americans. Probably true 50 years ago, not sure about now UNLESS it is mandated by Xi (essentially a dictator for life).

Doing it for the good of the American farmer? What about the rest of the Americans? They vote as well!

Trump is NOT unpredictable or reliable. You can reliably predict that he will do what he thinks is best for America and he will NOT back down.

 Finally, your comment regarding the majority he never had...you have fallen into the trap of not understanding the Electoral College.

George Bush also thought that invading Iraq was for the best for Americans, too.  And, you know, everyone started WWI because they thought this was "the best for their country."  

Regardless we shall see.  But with current trends I do not foresee anything but bad news on the trade front for the next several years.  

[ronwagn + 6,290]

3 hours ago, SKEP said:

I know what you mean.  I want to put words in his mouth. Sometimes it's what he doesn't say. Sometimes it's what he does say.

Run for President yourself then. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

1 hour ago, Zhong Lu said:

"They will cut a deal," some claim.

My question is this: how do you know that? Has Iran cut a deal? Has North Korea cut a deal? Has the Taliban cut a deal?

What if the other side simply doesn't "cut a deal?" What then? 

That is my preference. This is the time to attack our enemies with economic war. That is exactly what China has gotten away with for decades. America tries to be too good sometimes. Time to toughen up. 

[SKEP + 229]

6 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

Run for President yourself then. 

I started building my campaign team last week.  I'll be making my official announcement on the steps of the Lincoln Memorial September 22. 

Any and all donations are appreciated.

Come on Ron, you have to admit Trump says some stupid things now and again. Right ?

Edited August 8, 2019 by SKEP

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

4 hours ago, Zhong Lu said:

If a person is discussing stuff on this forum, I'm going to assume they're in the economically top 10%.  

What I do know is that it's a good bet to bet against Trump this election cycle.  The math isn't adding up for Trump.  

You must be joking! Trump is doing well, don't fall for what the liberal, biased media is telling you.

Remember, according to them Hillary was going to win by a landslide all the way up to the election.

PS: You keep referring to the farmers....do you think that everyone in America is a farmer?

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

1 minute ago, Zhong Lu said:

George Bush also thought that invading Iraq was for the best for Americans, too.  And, you know, everyone started WWI because they thought this was "the best for their country."  

Regardless we shall see.  But with current trends I do not foresee anything but bad news on the trade front for the next several years.  

You do not understand George Bush one bit.  My guess is that you never even met the man. I further guess that you never had a beer with him, either.  George Bush is an old friend of mine. I have known George since teenage years.  So lay off George Bush.

Nobody started WWI because they thought it was best for their country.  That is ridiculous.  Some mobilized armies because they were invaded.  Others went due to Treaty obligations. 

The "trade front," as you categorize it, is nothing more than the development of certain trade patterns.  Those are being disrupted.  New patterns, likely with new players, will emerge.  Eventually the new patterns will become the norm, and this business of importing from China will be looked at as an aberration.  As a final note, as to soybeans, they will be put to other uses by other buyers soon enough.  It is not cast in cement that US soy farmers must sell their crop to only Chinese buyers for incorporation into animal feed there.  That is silly.  Scientists studying the soy plant will find new uses soon enough.  And some portion of the land will be planted in something else.  That is how suppliers respond to changing markets.  

[ronwagn + 6,290]

No, Xi is the one who changed course. Trump tired of playing his game. We now play our game. 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

45 minutes ago, Zhong Lu said:

Messaging and tactics that work in one culture may not necessarily work in another.  

Agreed.

[SKEP + 229]

5 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

7 minutes ago, SKEP said:

I started building my campaign team last week.  I'll be making my official announcement on the steps of the Lincoln Memorial September 22. 

Any and all donations are appreciated.

Come on Ron, you have to admit Trump says some stupid things now and again. Right ?

Trump is a lot smarter than many think. I think that God knew he had many flaws but would make a great leader. I cannot see the results of the next election but am doing everything I can to support Trump. 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

27 minutes ago, Zhong Lu said:

You should visit China at some point.  They're not in economic collapse.  

I've been to China 7 times, including Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and elsewhere.

My wife is Chinese Malaysian.  I've been living in Malaysia for almost 20 years.  And I am well travelled internationally.

Almost half of Americans do not even have a passport, and have never travelled outside the U.S. except for possibly to Canada or Mexico.  I am not one of those Americans. 

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

6 minutes ago, SKEP said:

Come on Ron, you have to admit Trump days some stupid things now and again. Right ?

Not to nitpick, but so does everybody else.  Even me  (although I shudder to confess that.) 

For example, how about this for stupid remark:   "I did not have sex with that woman."   That one got the speaker impeached!   [Public comment about the woman who had a dress with his semen on it, as a keepsake memento, which the FBI then ran off with. Not smart.]

How about this one:   "And so my job is is not to worry about those people. I’ll never convince them that they should take personal responsibility and care for their lives."   [Talking about the 47%]

And for the classic in Identity Politics:   "You know, to just be grossly generalistic, you could put half of Trump’s supporters into what I call the basket of deplorables. Right?  The racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamophobic—you name it. And unfortunately there are people like that. And he has lifted them up.”  [Calling the voters "the deplorables" is totally stupid.] 

 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

41 minutes ago, Zhong Lu said:

You should visit China at some point.  They're not in economic collapse.  

At least look at the stock prices of the Chinese companies listed on the stock exchanges.  They're treading water, which is a pretty good summary of the Chinese [and American] economy right now.  

They are losing as much as we are. A small loss to China hurts them more. The Hang Seng Index is losing almost exactly what we are. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

44 minutes ago, Zhong Lu said:

You should visit China at some point.  They're not in economic collapse.  

At least look at the stock prices of the Chinese companies listed on the stock exchanges.  They're treading water, which is a pretty good summary of the Chinese [and American] economy right now.  

To understand China you must know the whole country, not just the big cities. The repression is awful. 

[Jakridge + 122]

2 hours ago, Zhong Lu said:

George W. Bush believed that by invading Iraq he could win a quick victory.  Sooner or later after enough punishment his adversaries would negotiate with him, allowing him to end the war as he pleased.  At least that's what he believed.  Lyndon B. Johnson believed the same about Vietnam.  If someone told them that the other side isn't going to negotiate, they would have scoffed and claimed "well of course they'll negotiate.  They have more to lose than we do."  

Look at how that turned out.  Here's a question for you: what if the other side's pain tolerance is higher than what you can inflict? What do you do then? America's track record against adversaries that can outwait them, isn't very good.  

Thats because we had leaders like Lyndon B Johnson and George W bush. I understand where you're coming from man, but this is what it looks like when America looks out for America's interest. You can't fault America for that (or maybe you can, but to be fair you shouldn't)  and this is the first time we've done it in a long time. China has been looking out for China's interest this whole time but we have not had leaders looking out for our interest like we do now. That is what it is different. Nobody knows what's going to happen. We're all just going to have to wait and see, but I'm on the side of our President in this because this helps America and that is where my interests lie. 

[KeyboardWarrior + 527]

1 hour ago, ronwagn said:

Well, feed should be a lot cheaper if you are fattening your own cattle. That should help you out. Plenty of rain, so you should have plenty of hay stored, or at least can buy it cheaper. I am looking for better beef prices, I think they are sky high, but I look back a long ways. It could be inflation.  If beef is high people like me eat more chicken and pork. 

We feed grass all winter, but low corn prices help us when we send yearlings to the feedlot for fattening. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

32 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

You must be joking! Trump is doing well, don't fall for what the liberal, biased media is telling you.

Remember, according to them Hillary was going to win by a landslide all the way up to the election.

PS: You keep referring to the farmers....do you think that everyone in America is a farmer?

Douglas, you know where I live. I worry about the farmers. I worry about the rain, commodity prices, you name it. That is just because the farmers are good folks. They run their farm while often holding down a full time job as well. They have way more mone than I do. Their land is worth close to $5,000 an acre and most farms are at least a thousand acres. Do they worry about how much money I make? Hell no! Most people in the corn and soybean people work in agriculturally related jobs or in the service sector. Only a small percentage are actually farmers but they all want the farmers to succeed. ADM and John Deere etc. will make their money no matter what. The farmer gets a small return on his investment. America can and should make sure our farmers are well compensated throughout this struggle.

Less than 1% of Americans are farmers. https://www.quora.com/What-percentage-of-Americans-are-farmers

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

2 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

Douglas, you know where I live. I worry about the farmers. I worry about the rain, commodity prices, you name it. That is just because the farmers are good folks. They run their farm while often holding down a full time job as well. They have way more mone than I do. Their land is worth close to $5,000 an acre and most farms are at least a thousand acres. Do they worry about how much money I make? Hell no! Most people in the corn and soybean people work in agriculturally related jobs or in the service sector. Only a small percentage are actually farmers but they all want the farmers to succeed. ADM and John Deere etc. will make their money no matter what. The farmer gets a small return on his investment. America can and should make sure our farmers are well compensated throughout this struggle.

Less than 1% of Americans are farmers. https://www.quora.com/What-percentage-of-Americans-are-farmers

I agree with you that farmers (especially the family farms) should be protected during this Long March.

I am still a bit miffed about subsidies for growing corn, to turn into additives for gasoline instead of food....but that is a totally different can of worms.

I am not a farmer, but I am sure that they will adjust to the new economic situation once this trade issue is put to bed. Hopefully, it may even benefit them.

[Jakridge + 122]

1 hour ago, Zhong Lu said:

The next president can easily claim they're doing it for the good of American farmers.  It's not political suicide so long as you can spin it right.  Trump's support is not the majority.  It never was.  This will be in the Chinese government's calculations.

Everything I've heard is that the Chinese government is going to wait. No point negotiating with Trump since he's unpredictable and unreliable.  He doesn't stick to deals anyways, and he changes his mind all the time, so why talk to him? 

Everything youve heard is obviously from an anti Trump, anti American slant.  Where has Trump been unpredictable and unreliable in foreign policy? He says what he means and he does what he says he will. That's what the media hates about him. And that is why they try to portray him as unpredictable and unreliable because they do not like his staunch pro-American stance. It seems to me you have fallen victim to the mainstream media anti Trump bias and what you are probably not aware of is that the Chinese leadership knows exactly where Trump stands and is afraid he won't back down. We are in a tit-for-tat right now and we will see who blinks first but I guarantee you the Chinese leadership is not convinced in his unreliability.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

1 hour ago, Zhong Lu said:

The next president can easily claim they're doing it for the good of American farmers.  It's not political suicide so long as you can spin it right.  Trump's support is not the majority.  It never was.  This will be in the Chinese government's calculations.

Everything I've heard is that the Chinese government is going to wait. No point negotiating with Trump since he's unpredictable and unreliable.  He doesn't stick to deals anyways, and he changes his mind all the time, so why talk to him? 

XI has backed off of his promises and then Trump acted. 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

3 hours ago, Jakridge said:

 Are we going to Trend towards socialism like the Democrats are desperate for, or are we going to maintain our capitalistic free-market society that has created the wealthiest and most prosperous country in the history in the world that people are flooding into illegally to escape socialist $#!tholes?

Do capitalistic free-trade markets need massive tariffs to maintain competitiveness?  The ideology suggests pure capitalist countries will rise to the top regardless of other nations governments.

This war seems more and more like a less capitalist nation is taking your lunch and now someone is crying it's not fair.  Well guess what... class separation and lack of fairness is also a capitalist ideology.  Other corporations and nations are supposed to press their competitive advantages (called moat) and crush competitors - even using loss-leaders and other "unfair" but actually fair practices.

Edited August 8, 2019 by Enthalpic